For the sake of conversation, here's how I may roughly organize where I see priorities falling next time for first parties. Notably I didn't include every character here, not because I think anyone I excluded would be cut but moreso because I don't know how to categorize like... specifically Rosalina or Bowser Jr? I think at least one of those guys is very likely to return but they're in kind of a limbo area. Don't read into anyone's absence too hard, in other words.
- Original 8
- "Active" IP with notable current / last gen releases
- Character-driven Legacy IP
All of the character-driven staple series. I emphasize this point - character driven - because the only ones I believe are in significant danger of being cut altogether are the more abstract fighter concepts and retro pulls. Feel free to debate with me on what this entails but I see a pretty stark difference in representing a series like Punch-Out, with several games spanning a 15-20 year interval, vs Ice Climber or Gyromite.
- Major Supporting
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- Fairweather Cast
Self explanatory. I didn't feel like singling out the Pokemon very much so it's just a matter of picking and choosing who gets dibs. Fire Emblem... same thing I guess, but I think these three stand a cut above the others.
- "Smash Core"
The most abstract category, and one that is notably not accounting for every candidate, because it's hard to say exactly what this means. But to me it's characters whose merits fall outside these discernable categories and exist within a more vague assessment of Smash's own identity, gameplay or community. These may not be the most popular or recurring characters in their own series, or their respective series may not be an active part of the Nintendo brand, but they offer something or another that may be seen as valuable.
Feel free to throw ROB in here, Wii Fit Trainer, Toon Link, whoever. This is a sample selection, not the be all end all.
I’ll make another attempt at a priority list
Priorities (I’m not going to order them within tiers)
Nintendo
Top Priority
These feel like the most prominent Nintendo characters, and the only cut that wouldn’t completely shock me is Pokemon Trainer where time constraints lead to a last resort cut. The original 8 are dubbed as the true perfect attendees, Captain Falcon is the Falcon Punch Guy, Mother and Kid Icarus are important to SSB, Fire Emblem, Wario, Pikmin, Animal Crossing, Xenoblade, and Splatoon are relevant, Mr. Game & Watch seems to be the poster child of surprise fighters, Mii costumes are a part of the DLC cycle, and the other fighters are prominent characters in their respective franchise.
Highish priority
These are fighters that I think would be in consideration at least during the initial planning stages, and these would be tougher cuts caused depending on how strict the time constraints are. These characters fall into one of these bins: long term veterans who seem to have priority based on prior entries (top row pretty much barring Icies’ 3DS limitation cut), characters with movesets that stand put (Icies, Rosalina, Robin, and potentially Incinoroar), popular requests (Little Mac, Palutena, K. Rool), contemporary picks (Ultimate’s Nintendo Challenger Pass characters), and supplemental Pokemon/Fire Emblem fighters.
Toss-Up?
While these aren’t the first fighters on the chopping block, I think these fighters would be the first ones to drop with tighter time constraints. Jigglypuff is typically low priority but sneaks it way back. I’d like to put Mewtwo up a tier, but it was cut in Brawl and held off until DLC for For. The other three are just a case where I think the characters above would be treated as a higher priority based on my reasoning above.
Low Priority
Pretty much these are the fighters that have been historically low priority or in Corrin’s case, competing with a ton of other fighters.
Third Party
Top Priority
Sonic, Mega Man, and Bayonetta were requested fighters, and it seems that Sega and Capcom are easier to work with. Pac-Man and Ryu are easy enough to license in terms of additional major third party fighters.
Highish Priority
I think most of the Square/Microsoft fighters would be important to eventually add, but licensing concerns are probably larger with them compared to Sega, Capcom, and Namco. Also, Banjo & Kazooie and Sora were major requests.
Toss-Up?
My doubts towards Snake and Simon more or less lie with having to also compete with Sega, Namco, Capcom, Square, and Microsoft, but these fighters were requested, which could be a motivator to keep them. Sephiroth is more or less a case of how Square wants to handle Final Fantasy (VII) content.
Low Priority
I have nothing against these fighters, and I think it’s just a case where Nintendo/Sakurai would prioritize the other ones specified above.
