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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

Gengar84

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What does everyone think are the most likely big launch games for the Switch 2? I feel like the timing is actually lining up for an ambitious 3D Mario game since it’s been so long since Odyssey. We haven’t really had a huge Mario game at launch since Super Mario 64 on the N64 so that would be pretty exciting. A new Donkey Kong game could be great too.
 

RileyXY1

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What does everyone think are the most likely big launch games for the Switch 2? I feel like the timing is actually lining up for an ambitious 3D Mario game since it’s been so long since Odyssey. We haven’t really had a huge Mario game at launch since Super Mario 64 on the N64 so that would be pretty exciting. A new Donkey Kong game could be great too.
I think a new 3D Mario game might happen. Retro Studios is a little busy right now with Prime 4 so I'm not expecting a new DK game until that comes out. I also think that Pokémon Legends ZA will be a launch title too as the BOTW of the Switch 2, coming out for both the original Switch and the Switch 2.
 

TheQuester

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The series will be fine even if they cut 15+ characters, people will still buy the games as long theyre high quality and are fun.
Street Fighter 6 had a lot of cuts and people still think it's a great game :drshrug:, same thing can easily happen to Smash 6.

In fact both a Smash 6 and Ultimate Deluxe would sell well, because duh it's Smash Bros, some people might prefer one over the other, but claiming one of the two would flop or would be a bad idea because it's not what you want next it's kinda ridiculous to me lol.
Sure some people who don't want Ult Deluxe or Smash 6 might skip it, but that doesnt mean they will "flop" or will be "hated".
 

Louie G.

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I think that sylux just increased his chances for the Next Smash bros. Same with a new Zelda variant (toy Zelda). Specially sylux.
It will be funny for Sylux to once again reclaim his throne as the most reactionary Smash prediction, although at least this time we have complete 100% confirmation of his role in the game. But I'll echo what I've said in the past, which is that if Smash's project plan is already being drafted (seems likely) it's unlikely that we can judge Sylux with any real significance. Let alone "Toy Zelda", I really just don't see them dropping in another totally new variant.

It's possible Sakurai was tipped off on the story early, especially with how long this has been going on and the story seeming to have remained the same all this time, but I think most of this early access info would contribute to things like Samus' design or a new stage. Not a full fledged newcomer, working off limited information. Sylux is not a new face to the Metroid series, but surely Prime 4 will give him a lot of new material to work with. Letting that settle, and then letting audiences make a new connection to the character feels like a smarter way to handle this rather than jumping to add him because he's a prominent figure in the new game. Smash usually doesn't do the latter.

If Sylux's role is a smash hit and he becomes extremely popular then it's more likely to influence DLC like Min Min or Pythra. At least in my eyes.
 
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Gengar84

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The series will be fine even if they cut 15+ characters, people will still buy the games as long theyre high quality and are fun.
Street Fighter 6 had a lot of cuts and people still think it's a great game :drshrug:, same thing can easily happen to Smash 6.

In fact both a Smash 6 and Ultimate Deluxe would sell well, because duh it's Smash Bros, some people might prefer one over the other, but claiming one of the two would flop or would be a bad idea because it's not what you want next it's kinda ridiculous to me lol.
Sure some people who don't want Ult Deluxe or Smash 6 might skip it, but that doesnt mean they will "flop" or will be "hated".
Yeah, I think cuts would be generally accepted as long as we get something worthwhile in return. If the roster size stays generally the same and we cut 20ish characters for 20 new ones, I think that would be fine. Obviously it would matter to me who’s cut and who’s added but still. A smaller roster would be acceptable too if we got some kind of ambitious adventure mode like Subspace Emissary or a vastly improved Stage Builder.
 

Louie G.

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If we're going to see any amount of cuts, I don't think the newcomer count will be insignificant. Nintendo and Sakurai are not naive to the way people will approach next game with some sense of disappointment about losing longtime or new favorites, so counteracting that with a surplus of new content is an obligation. So in respect to the conversation from before, I'd expect a minimum of 12 newcomers maybe edging closer to 15.

I think next game could be the most amount of newcomers we've ever seen in Smash after everything is done. We'd be looking at a "normal" slate of unique base game newcomers in contrast with Ultimate's limited (but highly efficient) selection, and then at least two extra passes of DLC like in Ultimate. It will sting to have a slightly smaller roster than we're now accustomed to at launch, but I think the game will be able to build itself up to a satisfying scale and people will not have much difficulty getting over it. 60-something characters at launch with 12-15 brand new characters would still be pretty big.
 
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Wunderwaft

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It will be funny for Sylux to once again reclaim his throne as the most reactionary Smash prediction, although at least this time we have complete 100% confirmation of his role in the game. But I'll echo what I've said in the past, which is that if Smash's project plan is already being drafted (seems likely) it's unlikely that we can judge Sylux with any real significance. Let alone "Toy Zelda", I really just don't see them dropping in another totally new variant.

It's possible Sakurai was tipped off on the story early, especially with how long this has been going on and the story seeming to have remained the same all this time, but I think most of this early access info would contribute to things like Samus' design or a new stage. Not a full fledged newcomer, working off limited information. Sylux is not a new face to the Metroid series, but surely Prime 4 will give him a lot of new material to work with. Letting that settle, and then letting audiences make a new connection to the character feels like a smarter way to handle this rather than jumping to add him because he's a prominent figure in the new game. Smash usually doesn't do the latter.

If Sylux's role is a smash hit and he becomes extremely popular then it's more likely to influence DLC like Min Min or Pythra. At least in my eyes.
I think the project plan was already decided and has been for a while now. And if I was a betting man it was proooobably finished around the time Sakurai announced he's retiring his YT channel. The only slot for a future title I could see him saving for is Pokemon, but no more than that, it's the only franchise that gets that special treatment in Smash besides arguably Fire Emblem.
 

Gengar84

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I think the project plan was already decided and has been for a while now. And if I was a betting man it was proooobably finished around the time Sakurai announced he's retiring his YT channel. The only slot for a future title I could see him saving for is Pokemon, but no more than that, it's the only franchise that gets that special treatment in Smash besides arguably Fire Emblem.
I feel like Prime 4 is generally an exception to that since it has been in development for 7 years now. Sylux is also an existing character and it has been known that he will be the main antagonist for the next entry for over 15 years. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Sakurai has some information where they were planning to go with the character even if the game itself isn’t released until next year.
 

TheQuester

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If we're going to see any amount of cuts, I don't think the newcomer count will be insignificant. Nintendo and Sakurai are not naive to the way people will approach next game with some sense of disappointment about losing longtime or new favorites, so counteracting that with a surplus of new content is an obligation. So in respect to the conversation from before, I'd expect a minimum of 12 newcomers maybe edging closer to 15.

I think next game could be the most amount of newcomers we've ever seen in Smash after everything is done. We'd be looking at a "normal" slate of unique base game newcomers in contrast with Ultimate's limited (but highly efficient) selection, and then at least two extra passes of DLC like in Ultimate. It will sting to have a slightly smaller roster than we're now accustomed to at launch, but I think the game will be able to build itself up to a satisfying scale and people will not have much difficulty getting over it. 60-something characters at launch with 12-15 brand new characters would still be pretty big.
Yeah, i can see them just going all out and add 12+ newcomers base.
 

ScrubReborn

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It'd be like...Koopa Kid from Mario Party and then maybe Baby Bowser, Lakitu, or an Amazing Flyin' Hammer Bro., none of which work all that well.
You say that as if a Koopa Kid alt wouldn't be peak.

When should we expect any news on next Smash?
I think we'll get a text only teaser when Switch 2 is announced, so I'm guessing a teaser in late 2024/early 2025.

As for more substantial news... idk. Maybe six months to a year later?
 
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DarthEnderX

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I think you’re missing the point that the game has to give you a reason to spend another $70. If the game is just Ultimate again with 6 new characters, it’s hard to justify that over just sticking to Ultimate. You’re essentially paying $70 for 6 characters, which is pretty excessive.
Maybe? But that's fighting games in a post Season Pass world.

Tekken 8 only added 3 new characters at launch. And by all accounts, it's the most popular game in the series.

Guilty Gear Strive only added 2. KoF15 only added 2.

Hell, the last Mortal Kombat game added zero new characters. And the one before that only added 3.

When should we expect any news on next Smash?
Riiiiiight...NOW!

...now!


...nnnow!

What does everyone think are the most likely big launch games for the Switch 2?
Mario Kart.
 
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Gengar84

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Maybe? But that's fighting games in a post Season Pass world.

Tekken 8 only added 3 new characters at launch. And by all accounts, it's the most popular game in the series.

Guilty Gear Strive only added 2. KoF15 only added 2.

Hell, the last Mortal Kombat game added zero new characters. And the one before that only added 3.
Those other fighting games often have bigger changes to the overall gameplay systems from what I understand. I think the veterans that are brought back get reworked to a greater extent than Smash’s too. From what I’ve seen, Mortal Kombat 1 was fairly poorly received and had some questionable choices for guests. Smash is also not a typical fighting game so I’m not sure it would necessarily follow the same trends.
 
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Among Waddle Dees

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"You say that as if it's not all feasible on both ends"

No I didn't, I specifically said you could do it, I questioned why you ever would. Which I stand by. Being in something often doesn't mean you should be playable in Smash. None of the characters mentioned have any particularly noteworthy fanbase, or significant roles in any games. People just like to mention them from time to time because they're in more than one game.
I will admit, I... was hoping you wouldn't notice that slip. The others were talking about Kraid and size relation, so I saw that and thought you were bringing the Kirby bosses up for that reason. I realized your actual point too late to fix it.

...that said, why argue for both noteworthiness and importance in Kirby or Metroid inclusions? You realize very few characters have anything near having both types of roles in either franchise? If being a prominent boss alone doesn't qualify the criteria, then currently Kirby's Bandana Dee is the only one who has any good argument to get in, between the two series. That's extremely limiting.
 
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Diddy Kong

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When should we expect any news on next Smash?
It probably is drafted on right now. Sakurai is officially into game development again and this man just lives and breathes Smash. We all know it's coming. The earlier the announcement however, the smaller the chance on a game that's too different from Ultimate in terms of engine and design however... But since Ultimate and Smash 4 had similar looks as well I almost consider this inevitable. Doubt we'll see many new character models for veteran characters for example.
 

Freduardo

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What does everyone think are the most likely big launch games for the Switch 2? I feel like the timing is actually lining up for an ambitious 3D Mario game since it’s been so long since Odyssey. We haven’t really had a huge Mario game at launch since Super Mario 64 on the N64 so that would be pretty exciting. A new Donkey Kong game could be great too.
Highest priority: Mario Kart.

Mario Kart 8 was the bestselling game on the last two consoles. Nintendo has to realize the series prints money.

Next: 3D Mario. Been a while since Odyssey. So it's the right time. And these also sell well. Odyssey was the #5 top seller on the switch.

Next: Animal Crossing. This was #2 in sales on switch. They know they have the audience.

Next: Zelda. The number four top seller on switch. These games take a while to make.... so I fully expect them to buy time with the Wind Waker/Twilight Princess ports.

Next: Pokemon. Pokemon makes money. Smash Brothers also goes at this ranking as it makes money. But this ranking is also the one where Nintendo mostly just finances the teams making the games rather than oversee release schedule. So while they're priorities, they're never going to be launch priorities. Expect pokemon in the first year. Expect Smash announced in the first year, and delayed to until the start of year 3.

Next: A sport title. Either Switch sports or Mario sports. Sells well. Not a launch priority, but certainly out in the first year.

Next: Splatoon. Gives them a competitive shooter. Once again, not a launch given the excellent support on Switch, but early cause Splatoon 3 is already ending.

Next: Kirby. If they try to squeeze one for launch, it'll likely just be the triple deluxe/robobot port people were thinking about. Otherwise, new Kirby in the first year.

Everything else: Second year or later.

My top priority: ...please kid icarus uprising port....
 

DarthEnderX

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Smash is also not a typical fighting game so I’m not sure it would necessarily follow the same trends.
shrug Ultimate just did it.

I know people are like "That's EiH's fault." But I think it's naive to think Fighters Passes weren't also a contributing factor.
 
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TheFirstPoppyBro

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I will admit, I... was hoping you wouldn't notice that slip. The others were talking about Kraid and size relation, so I saw that and thought you were bringing the Kirby bosses up for that reason. I realized your actual point too late to fix it.

...that said, why argue for both noteworthiness and importance in Kirby or Metroid inclusions? You realize very few characters have anything near having both types of roles in either franchise? If being a prominent boss alone doesn't qualify the criteria, then currently Kirby's Bandana Dee is the only one who has any good argument to get in, between the two series. That's extremely limiting.
I mean Magolor would technically fit between Star Allies and his solo campaign in Return to Dreamland Deluxe, I suppose? It's basically just those two though I think.


As for when we'll get Smash news, I used to think we'd get news next year then see the game in 2026, but that was back when I thought the Switch 2 was coming out this year, which I guess it still could, but I'm not expecting it when we haven't even seen it yet and the year's half over.

Basically, I think the order of events right now is: Switch 2 will be shown off for the first time later this year in like October/November, then release sometime in the first half of next year. Smash will be officially announced in Nintendo's summer direct in 2026 (though it may get teased before then like the Inkling trailer for Ultimate), then we'll get the news cycle/likely Dojo update cycle until sometime in the latter half of 2027, since Smash tends to be a year and a half or so, closer to two years out from system launch. Of course this is all just a guess, but it's genuinely how I think it'll go down at the moment.
 
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fogbadge

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Highest priority: Mario Kart.

Mario Kart 8 was the bestselling game on the last two consoles. Nintendo has to realize the series prints money.

Next: 3D Mario. Been a while since Odyssey. So it's the right time. And these also sell well. Odyssey was the #5 top seller on the switch.

Next: Animal Crossing. This was #2 in sales on switch. They know they have the audience.

Next: Zelda. The number four top seller on switch. These games take a while to make.... so I fully expect them to buy time with the Wind Waker/Twilight Princess ports.

Next: Pokemon. Pokemon makes money. Smash Brothers also goes at this ranking as it makes money. But this ranking is also the one where Nintendo mostly just finances the teams making the games rather than oversee release schedule. So while they're priorities, they're never going to be launch priorities. Expect pokemon in the first year. Expect Smash announced in the first year, and delayed to until the start of year 3.

Next: A sport title. Either Switch sports or Mario sports. Sells well. Not a launch priority, but certainly out in the first year.

Next: Splatoon. Gives them a competitive shooter. Once again, not a launch given the excellent support on Switch, but early cause Splatoon 3 is already ending.

Next: Kirby. If they try to squeeze one for launch, it'll likely just be the triple deluxe/robobot port people were thinking about. Otherwise, new Kirby in the first year.

Everything else: Second year or later.

My top priority: ...please kid icarus uprising port....
I think you’re getting a touch carried away
 

DarthEnderX

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With how much 8 Deluxe sold, I'd like to see 48 track in the base game of the next Mario Kart.
What I want from MK9:
Launch:
16 new courses.
8 returning SNES courses(1 of each type).
All 16 N64 courses.
12 returning GBA courses(1 of each type).

Then every year the add a Course Pass that adds all 16 courses from the next MK game in the series.

After, like, 7 years of DLC, we'll achieve 'EveryCourse is Here!'
 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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Highest priority: Mario Kart.

Mario Kart 8 was the bestselling game on the last two consoles. Nintendo has to realize the series prints money.

Next: 3D Mario. Been a while since Odyssey. So it's the right time. And these also sell well. Odyssey was the #5 top seller on the switch.

Next: Animal Crossing. This was #2 in sales on switch. They know they have the audience.

Next: Zelda. The number four top seller on switch. These games take a while to make.... so I fully expect them to buy time with the Wind Waker/Twilight Princess ports.

Next: Pokemon. Pokemon makes money. Smash Brothers also goes at this ranking as it makes money. But this ranking is also the one where Nintendo mostly just finances the teams making the games rather than oversee release schedule. So while they're priorities, they're never going to be launch priorities. Expect pokemon in the first year. Expect Smash announced in the first year, and delayed to until the start of year 3.

Next: A sport title. Either Switch sports or Mario sports. Sells well. Not a launch priority, but certainly out in the first year.

Next: Splatoon. Gives them a competitive shooter. Once again, not a launch given the excellent support on Switch, but early cause Splatoon 3 is already ending.

Next: Kirby. If they try to squeeze one for launch, it'll likely just be the triple deluxe/robobot port people were thinking about. Otherwise, new Kirby in the first year.

Everything else: Second year or later.

My top priority: ...please kid icarus uprising port....
This sounds pretty good, but I'll add:
  • As much as I wish ARMS was on the lineup, it's 100% gonna be Mario Kart 10 instead.
  • Specifically, Pokémon Legends Z-A, and not Gen 10. How much later Gen 10 will come is up in the air, but I don't think it'll be a launch title.
  • Since Nintendo Switch Sports is still getting updated for some reason, I don't think they're working on a new Nintendo Sports title. A new Mario Tennis or Super Mario Sluggers is plausible though.
    • Considering Nintendo Sports Next Gen probably isn't an option, we'll probably be seeing a new gimmicky title like 1-2 Switch and Nintendo Land before them.
  • A new 3D Kirby is possible if it uses Kirby and the Forgotten Land's engine, but otherwise, yeah probably not launch.
  • I'm really thinking Metroid Prime 4 will dual release.
 

Shinuto

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I don't know how so many here think Smash is gonna be revealed in 2026. The longest gap ever between smash titles was melee and brawl being just over 6 years and that was due to delays to put in Sonic. We're at worst getting a reveal summer 2025.
 

TheFirstPoppyBro

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I don't know how so many here think Smash is gonna be revealed in 2026. The longest gap ever between smash titles was melee and brawl being just over 6 years and that was due to delays to put in Sonic. We're at worst getting a reveal summer 2025.
That's true, but also keep in mind that we don't know how DLC factors into that consideration (Sora was 2021, so 2027 would be six years after the final big DLC update), and that the Gamecube only lasted 5 years as opposed to the Switch's 7-and-some-change lifespan.
 

Zerp

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When should we expect any news on next Smash?
Sane people will tell you to temper your expectations well into next year. I however am not sane am expecting it the moment we see the next console. With how much attention Smash brings I'd imagine they'd want it to be around very early into the console's lifespan. That way you can toss a DLC character into a direct every so often and simply having something like that to anticipate makes even more people watch it and talk about it. I see nothing but benefits to Nintendo for having it early, and it's getting close to three years post-Sora now.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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I don't know how so many here think Smash is gonna be revealed in 2026. The longest gap ever between smash titles was melee and brawl being just over 6 years and that was due to delays to put in Sonic. We're at worst getting a reveal summer 2025.
Because it's not going on the Switch, which means it needs to be revealed after it's successor. IIRC it's estimated reveal date is "soon", so it could be summer/autumn 2025, but I dunno. More likely it's gonna be 2026.

Though I've also been seeing comments about Sakurai just getting back into the video games business, which would push that out way farther so I dunno.
 

Freduardo

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I think you’re getting a touch carried away
Maybe.

This sounds pretty good, but I'll add:
  • As much as I wish ARMS was on the lineup, it's 100% gonna be Mario Kart 10 instead.
  • Specifically, Pokémon Legends Z-A, and not Gen 10. How much later Gen 10 will come is up in the air, but I don't think it'll be a launch title.
  • Since Nintendo Switch Sports is still getting updated for some reason, I don't think they're working on a new Nintendo Sports title. A new Mario Tennis or Super Mario Sluggers is plausible though.
    • Considering Nintendo Sports Next Gen probably isn't an option, we'll probably be seeing a new gimmicky title like 1-2 Switch and Nintendo Land before them.
  • A new 3D Kirby is possible if it uses Kirby and the Forgotten Land's engine, but otherwise, yeah probably not launch.
  • I'm really thinking Metroid Prime 4 will dual release.
In reverse order:

Total agreement on Prime 4 being a dual release.

Agree on the 3D Kirby point.

Agree on the switch sports point and subpoint.

Agree on Legends Z-A. Though will amend we'll probably get some other spinoff (Snap 2, port of conquest, a new mystery dungeon) as well if the wait for gen 10 is going to exceed 2 years of the new system's lifespan.

...Yeah, I'd like ARMS too. Hell, I have very specific ideas for how I'd direct an ARMS sequel.... Dunno if we'll get one, but will admit that if we don't, a different boxing title (Punch Out, Teleroboxer) might have a shot?
 

PeridotGX

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I don't know how so many here think Smash is gonna be revealed in 2026. The longest gap ever between smash titles was melee and brawl being just over 6 years and that was due to delays to put in Sonic. We're at worst getting a reveal summer 2025.
Since Brawl, Smash games have come in the second "real" year of the console's life (I'm not counting the month and a half the Wii and Wii U were out). That would put Smash 6 on 2026.

The game could be revealed next year, but Nintendo has been pretty consistent with only announcing games within a year of release this generation. The only exceptions have been Prime 4 (dev hell), Pikmin 4 (dev hell), Bayonetta 3 (Dev Hell), Tears of the Kingdom (Maybe dev hell?) and Crafted World (no idea what happened there)
 

Gengar84

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What do you guys think about the possibility of bringing back something like the Dojo during the lead up to Brawl’s release? I think that made everything so much more exciting while we waited. Every day there was some little bit of info to look forward to and we’d sometimes randomly get a new character or returning veteran reveal that made it even more exciting. I know it was probably a ton of work for Sakurai to keep updating but it was the most fun prerelease build up ever in my opinion.
 

RileyXY1

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What do you guys think about the possibility of bringing back something like the Dojo during the lead up to Brawl’s release? I think that made everything so much more exciting while we waited. Every day there was some little bit of info to look forward to and we’d sometimes randomly get a new character or returning veteran reveal that made it even more exciting. I know it was probably a ton of work for Sakurai to keep updating but it was the most fun prerelease build up ever in my opinion.
I think that without Everyone Is Here they'll go back to a more traditional reveal cycle like that.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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...Yeah, I'd like ARMS too. Hell, I have very specific ideas for how I'd direct an ARMS sequel.... Dunno if we'll get one, but will admit that if we don't, a different boxing title (Punch Out, Teleroboxer) might have a shot?
I think we'll see ARMS again, but it won't be until Mario Kart 10 is wrapping up.

Tears of the Kingdom (Maybe dev hell?)
If not dev heck, it's probably just because the game is a lot. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild took quite a while too (and the first time we saw gameplay the Sheika Towers weren't even modeled in yet. lol). Also, the Fuse system absolutely floored programmers when it came out, so there was definitely a lot of time put into tech wizardry there.

What do you guys think about the possibility of bringing back something like the Dojo during the lead up to Brawl’s release? I think that made everything so much more exciting while we waited. Every day there was some little bit of info to look forward to and we’d sometimes randomly get a new character or returning veteran reveal that made it even more exciting. I know it was probably a ton of work for Sakurai to keep updating but it was the most fun prerelease build up ever in my opinion.
We've had something like that since Brawl. SSB4 had Pic of the Day, and SSBU had Super Smash Blog.
 
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Swamp Sensei

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So... Mario RPGs are in the best place they've ever been. Do you think that will be reflected in Smash?

What content do you think we could get from Super Mario RPG, Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi in a new Smash game?
 

RileyXY1

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I think we'll see ARMS again, but it won't be until Mario Kart 10 is wrapping up.


If not dev heck, it's probably just because the game is a lot. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild took quite a while too (and the first time we saw gameplay the Sheika Towers weren't even modeled in yet. lol). Also, the Fuse system absolutely floored programmers when it came out, so there was definitely a lot of time put into tech wizardry there.


We've had something like that since Brawl. SSB4 had Pic of the Day, and SSBU had Super Smash Blog.
I don't think it will be called Mario Kart 10 to avoid confusion.
 
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