Are there any characters now that seem far more likely than during Ultimate's run and it's dlc time period? Any that seem likely as a lock to be a bit presumptuous?
I think Most Characters have more of a Chance for this game than for Ultimate, but I'll go in the Negative zone and do Characters I think are less likely than during Ultimate, as well as Characters I don't think are Locks. I'll also do Characters I think are Maybes/Dependent on certain factors
Not a Lock
Tom Nook: He's a Very Sensible Option, and Animal Crossing just came off being the 2nd Most Sold game for the Switch, as well as being the Most Sold game on the Switch in Japan. Tom Nook is also the Character I think of when thinking of Animal Crossing, that hasn't changed
With that being said, I still think Animal Crossing not being a Series that lends itself to Smash is still a Factor in terms of Fighting, not because it makes the Characters impossible, We do have Villager and Isabelle after all, but because Depending on what other Characters are in Consideration, I think from a Fighting game Standpoint I could see a Character like Nook being outpriortized by many Characters, despite the Series he Comes from
With that being said, I do think Tom Nook has a good shot. I just won't be surprised if he's not in, but I won't be if he is actually in.
Maybe or Maybe not in Base
Noah and Mio: I Don't think they are getting Skipped, but I'm not sure if they will be Base. I do think the Mechanics of Xenoblade 3 with ouroboros as one of them being represented in Smash gameplay could be a great showcase of the power of the New System, but I could see that waiting till DLC to Implement.
Akira Howard: I think has more chances than Noah and Mio being in base. Their game was more a niche hit compared to Ring Fit, and the Leigon seems more complicated than the Ring, which is why they aren't a Lock for me unlike Ring Fit Trainee. I think they will be in the game eventually though if not in Base
Not in the Base Roster
Gen 10 Pokemon: I know Pokemon has had Recency Picks in it's Base roster with early Concept art and such, but I think because DLC is definitely going to be a factor for this Smash game, I just think it could wait, especially since Sword and Shield as well as Scarlet and Violet are very popular Pokemon games (despite their Controversies)
Maybe or Maybe not in the Roster
Monster Hunter: If there is a Gameplay Hook that Capcom Devs can agree on for representing the Hunter in Smash, they are in. If not, Then Monster Hunter will probably get an Increase in Non-Playable Content, but not a Character
Resident Evil: If the Ratings are Increased, or there are Changes allowed to get around the Limitations of using Weaponry realistically and having the Biohazards designs not as Bloody (like with Green blood ala MVC2), it's in. If Not, I don't know
Chun-Li: Terry does have Charge Input, but can a Moveset based around Charge Inputs be built in Smash? If yes, She's in. If not, while I think Chun-Li could be represented without Charge Inputs, I think since Sakurai is all about the Attention to Detail, and Chun-Li's Main gameplan is built around her having Charge inputs, if it can't work, She's not in, Despite her Iconic Status. I do think Charge Input based moveset can work and be Fun, but it will take work implementing
Fortnite: Since no Nintendo characters will be Appearing in Fortnite, if Epic gives a Good deal to allow usage of Fortnite in Smash, It's In, but if not, then No Fortnite. I also don't think it will necessarily be Jonsey to represent as Playable
Sans: IS Toby willing to allow Sakurai to bend Sans's Character a bit to make him Fit into Smash as a Character? if Yes, Then Sans is In, but If Not, He's definitly getting Assist Trophy'd. I do think you have to break/Evolve Sans's Character a bit to make him fit into Smash and not just make his Moveset about Spamming and Doing pranks on people.
Either Way, I think we'll get an Undertale character in Smash, It's just whether it's Frisk/Chara, Sans, or Both
Alucard: There's really nothing to say he except if he's Prioritized over other characters. He's Major in the Netflix series so maybe
Doomguy: The Mii Costume was made before Bethesda got Acquired by Microsoft. Honestly I think that Mii Costume might have been saying that this is it for Doomguy, but with that new Revelation, things can change
KOS-MOS: Is Her moveset so Cool that she can Defy the odds and somehow get onto the Playable Roster? If so, then it would be a Miracle, even more than Geno. If not, then It wouldn't be surprising given the state her Franchise is in. The main thing is that since Namco is Developing Smash, and she was already allowed in XBC2, there should be no issue in terms of rights
Gen 8 Pokemon: Is Sakurai and the Smash Team willing to Double Dip (Triple Dip with Gen 10 in DLC) on Pokemon on the Roster? If so, then we are definitly getting a Gen 8 Pokemon in base because Sword and Shield sold numbers. if not, then We'll get a Gen 9 Pokemon, and Gen 8 will go along with Gen 3 and 5 in being skipped for a Playable character
I don't think it's Looking Good
Katalina: I think Granblue will get a Character in Smash, But I definitely think Katalina is out of the running for Representing the Series. If they want to go the route of having Gran/Djeeta in, I think the New Switch can handle the "Class/Job Change" gameplay Mechanic they would bring. If they go any other route, there are more popular characters in the Series
Dante: His VA being in limbo might not be that much of a Factor, but honestly, The Mii costume kind of puts things into limbo with me for Dante, Makes it seem like there are no Plans for him. That and honestly, For Smash specifically Nero would probably be a better fit because he isn't as Overstuffed as Dante is in Material, and his Arm means he has a Defining Character trait than just the general DMC Mechanics
Phoenix Wright: He's Definitely getting Assist Trophy'd in my Opinion, unless something comes up. The Landscape of Smash has expanded so much, and honestly because he doesn't have Canon Fighting Material, and his Genre is kind of Niche (with another Candidate from his genre fitting more for what Smash is). I do think he could beat the Odds if they do make a hook of a Lawyer Work in the Concept of Smash.
Marvel vs Capcom had to do so much Improvising in terms of his moveset in that game, and the flow of how people move in Marvel is not how people move in Smash. I think Personality wise, Miles might actually fit Smash more than Phoenix would
Travis: Kind of Similar deal to Dante except it's even more over for him
Shantae: Same thing. It's weird because she technically is one of the Oldest Indies out there along with Reimu, and she actually has multiple games unlike Alot of Indies, but I think she Needs a 3D Game to propel her Series to New Heights.