Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Door Key Pig]

So what "rumblings" from leakers or whoever would go towards Lloyd being a character (or Heihachi or Bandana Dee for that matter)?

 

[Flyboy]

So what "rumblings" from leakers or whoever would go towards Lloyd being a character (or Heihachi or Bandana Dee for that matter)?

A new Bamco rep just makes sense in my eyes, and both Lloyd and Heihachi are excellent choices. The big thing is that Sakurai briefly considered Heihachi in 4 until deciding on a Mii, and Akira was upgraded from a Mii to an Assist. No Heihachi assist, so it could be his time. However, his voice actor has passed away (who also voiced Incineroar) so that could hurt his chances slightly. Lloyd is just as iconic and big on the GameCube, plus he also had a Mii outfit, so really, either or.

 

[Daedulus]

Jibanyan is a possibility we are all sleeping on. If not Jibanyan, then the YoKai Watch protagonist a la Pokemon Trainer. Jibanyan is a Level 5 character who has been supporting Nintendo for years with the Layton games and now this, and YoKai Watch actually outsold Pokemon at one point.

I would prefer Layton just because I like his games more but Jibanyan is very very possible.

A lot more people want Layton and I'd be ok with that! He'd be an interesting guy with an interesting moveset, I just like Jibs more.

 

[Curious Villager]

Jibanyan is a possibility we are all sleeping on. If not Jibanyan, then the YoKai Watch protagonist a la Pokemon Trainer. Jibanyan is a Level 5 character who has been supporting Nintendo for years with the Layton games and now this, and YoKai Watch actually outsold Pokemon at one point.

I would prefer Layton just because I like his games more but Jibanyan is very very possible.

I feel like Level-5 is kind of slept on in general as far as potential third party DLC goes. From what i've seen, both Layton and Jibanyan did pretty well during the ballot period according to a number of western and Japanese polls respectively. And Sakurai himself seems to be keeping in touch with the head of Level-5, Akihiro Hino, so some negotiations could have been made for DLC. But I suppose that remains to be seen.

 

[Daedulus]

I feel like Level-5 is kind of slept on in general as far as potential third party DLC goes. From what i've seen, both Layton and Jibanyan did pretty well during the ballot period according to a number of western and Japanese polls respectively. And Sakurai himself seems to be keeping in touch with the head of Level-5, Akihiro Hino, so some negotiations could have been made for DLC. But I suppose that remains to be seen.

While that is true... Level 5 is kinda Failing in the west(not that that has anything to do with DLC chances) due to the lackluster sales of previous yo kai watch games and the fact that Snack world will never come out here, but with Nino Kuni 2 doing so well level 5 is still a big name. I would say that MAYBE a rep could make it in as DLC...... it's either Jibs or Layton, No one from Snack World or Nino Kuni, I just know that if either gets in it could make for the other (Kind of like Banjo and Steve) Level 5 is literally Nintendo child and has had a good relationship since ever, I just home we can see that in Smash.

 

[Curious Villager]

While that is true... Level 5 is kinda Failing in the west(not that that has anything to do with DLC chances) due to the lackluster sales of previous yo kai watch games and the fact that Snack world will never come out here, but with Nino Kuni 2 doing so well level 5 is still a big name. I would say that MAYBE a rep could make it in as DLC...... it's either Jibs or Layton, No one from Snack World or Nino Kuni, I just know that if either gets in it could make for the other (Kind of like Banjo and Steve) Level 5 is literally Nintendo child and has had a good relationship since ever, I just home we can see that in Smash.

I mean, I don't think that would really effect Level-5's chances too much for DLC, especially if they have already negotiated things far back in advance. I mean, wasn't Konami and the like also under a lot of drama before Ultimate? Yet they apparently offered the most content for Ultimate out of most other third parties in Smash. (Especially you, Square...)

If Sakurai wants to include either Layton or Jibanyan, he'd do it out of the merit and history of their own respective franchises and making their fans happy, I don't think he would let something like a parent companies own personal issues get in the way of that.

 

[Daedulus]

I mean, I don't think that would really effect Level-5's chances too much for DLC, especially if they have already negotiated things far back in advance. I mean, wasn't Konami and the like also under a lot of drama before Ultimate? Yet they apparently offered the most content for Ultimate out of most other third parties in Smash. (Especially you, Square...)

If Sakurai wants to include either Layton or Jibanyan, he'd do it out of the merit and history of their own respective franchises and making their fans happy, I don't think he would let something like a parent companies own personal issues get in the way of that.

I said that it wouldn't effect whether they got in smash, it would come down to sakurai and what the fans want.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Crud Nintendo the ones who chose the dlc characters.

Be prepared for something like this

Steve
Sora
Gen 8 pokemon
Rayman or crash
High voted character on the ballot

 

[TheCJBrine]

From Sakurai's words, it sounds like Nintendo gave him options, not just 5 characters alone.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Crud Nintendo the ones who chose the dlc characters.

Be prepared for something like this

Steve
Sora
Gen 8 pokemon
Rayman or crash
High voted character on the ballot

I’m expecting something similar, but replace the high voted character with that chick from Granblue.

From Sakurai's words, it sounds like Nintendo gave him options, not just 5 characters alone.

Not really options, it sounds like he just had veto power when he couldn’t come up with a moveset for a character they gave him.

I shudder to think what character Nintendo proposed that not even Masahiro ‘I came up with a moveset for a potted plant’ Sakurai couldn’t work with.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I’m expecting something similar, but replace the high voted character with that chick from Granblue.

The guys on the general thread show me this

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77162181/911785222

“Negations May have fell through entirely”

It’s not quite locked yet it’s only 50/50 right now

 

[RileyXY1]

The guys on the general thread show me this

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77162181/911785222

“Negations May have fell through entirely”

It’s not quite locked yet it’s only 50/50 right now

Yeah. Don't treat Katalina like she's a 100% lock.

 

[GoodGrief741]

What I want to know now is, was Piranha Plant a Sakurai idea or did Nintendo decide it like the rest of DLC? Need to know who to blame.

The guys on the general thread show me this

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77162181/911785222

“Negations May have fell through entirely”

It’s not quite locked yet it’s only 50/50 right now

Yeah. Don't treat Katalina like she's a 100% lock.

Best news I’ve had all day.

 

[Oniric Spriter]

God, I hope they dropped Katalina. Everything about her is so generic.

 

[TeamFlareZakk]

So what "rumblings" from leakers or whoever would go towards Lloyd being a character (or Heihachi or Bandana Dee for that matter)?

Pretty much only if Verge said so.. Otherwise I have no interest in any "leakers"

 

[Daedulus]

What I want to know now is, was Piranha Plant a Sakurai idea or did Nintendo decide it like the rest of DLC? Need to know who to blame.

Ok, now it's time to stop. We've heard from Sakurai officially that he's tired of being hounded by players for more and more characters, he's put a lot of effort into this game and is tired of the negative complaints, it's okay to complain but please do so in a constructive thoughtful way. This is nor constructive nor thoughtful and I think everyone's tired of hearing it from you so please STOP.

 

[randy2dope]

DLC picks : GENO , Banjo Kazooie, Dixie Kong , Heihachi and Tails

 

[Daedulus]

DLC picks : GENO , Banjo Kazooie, Dixie Kong , Heihachi and Tails

Cool list.. Doubtful of tails and Dixie though.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Ok, now it's time to stop. We've heard from Sakurai officially that he's tired of being hounded by players for more and more characters, he's put a lot of effort into this game and is tired of the negative complaints, it's okay to complain but please do so in a constructive thoughtful way. This is nor constructive nor thoughtful and I think everyone's tired of hearing it from you so please STOP.

I just want to know how the decision process went, I love those development tidbits and stories.

I’m really looking forward to when, a few years down the line, we get interviews with Sakurai explaining some of the behind-the-scenes factoids. Was Isabelle always a unique or was she upgraded? Was Chrom being both a Final Smash and a character planned from the start, or was Chrom a late addition? What are the reasons behind picking Incineroar over his brethren? Did anyone get cut?

I’m just curious about that sort of thing, no need to be a ****.

 

[Daedulus]

I just want to know how the decision process went, I love those development tidbits and stories.

I’m really looking forward to when, a few years down the line, we get interviews with Sakurai explaining some of the behind-the-scenes factoids. Was Isabelle always a unique or was she upgraded? Was Chrom being both a Final Smash and a character planned from the start, or was Chrom a late addition? What are the reasons behind picking Incineroar over his brethren? Did anyone get cut?

I’m just curious about that sort of thing, no need to be a ****.

I think you know as well as I why I wrote that message.

"Piranha Plant a Sakurai idea or did Nintendo decide it like the rest of DLC? Need to know who to blame."

I'm tired of hearing how much you HATE P-plant, yeah he's not my favorite character either but, he's in Smash so just ****ing suck it up. I really don't like Ridley in Smash, but do I tell the ****ing world... no. Enough of this BS about, "I love those development tidbits and stories." Just SHUT-UP about it and move on.

Anyway, the whole thing about Nintendo deciding the characters doesn't have to be bad thing. We could get Waddle dee, Geno and Maybe even Isaac as 1st parties and Nintendo could just have gotten the rights to Banjo, Steve, Rayman and maybe even Sora as 3rd parties.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I think you know as well as I why I wrote that message.

"Piranha Plant a Sakurai idea or did Nintendo decide it like the rest of DLC? Need to know who to blame."

I'm tired of hearing how much you HATE P-plant, yeah he's not my favorite character either but, he's in Smash so just ****ing suck it up. I really don't like Ridley in Smash, but do I tell the ****ing world... no. Enough of this BS about, "I love those development tidbits and stories." Just SHUT-UP about it and move on.

Anyway, the whole thing about Nintendo deciding the characters doesn't have to be bad thing. We could get Waddle dee, Geno and Maybe even Isaac as 1st parties and Nintendo could just have gotten the rights to Banjo, Steve, Rayman and maybe even Sora as 3rd parties.

Too bad you’re tired of me posting on this forum, but I guess you can always block me if you’re that annoyed by people’s opinions.

Why do you think Nintendo calling the shots would make ‘irrelevant’ characters like Isaac, Geno and Banjo more likely?

 

[Daedulus]

Too bad you’re tired of me posting on this forum, but I guess you can always block me if you’re that annoyed by people’s opinions.

Why do you think Nintendo calling the shots would make ‘irrelevant’ characters like Isaac, Geno and Banjo more likely?

I don't want to block you because you make some good points, just shut up about piranha plant okay.

1st, Isaac is owned by nintendo, making it all the more likely that he could be in smash, 2nd Nintendo MIGHT have the rights to geno, rights they might give to sakurai and 3rd Banjo the same as geno.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Geno could be more likely to sell more SNES Classics; it may also decrease Sora's chances due to Disney having a part in his rights (despite them being okay with SE using him in crossovers, they'll still want money) and may increase DQ but at the same time SE apparently doesn't know when the new DQ games will release on the Switch.

Banjo-Kazooie could also get in to potentially increase N64 Classic sales if their games are on it, and maybe the rumored Minecraft content is just some remixed music, though I'm expecting Steve? to get in.

Isaac could get in to promote a potential new Golden Sun game, although I feel him being an Assist Trophy decreases his chances.

We also have to remember that Nintendo didn't just shove 5 characters into Sakurai's face, from his words it sounds like they at least gave him a pool to choose from, and the official NoA Twitter did mention SMRPG along with Mallow and Geno this year.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I don't want to block you because you make some good points, just shut up about piranha plant okay.

1st, Isaac is owned by nintendo, making it all the more likely that he could be in smash, 2nd Nintendo MIGHT have the rights to geno, rights they might give to sakurai and 3rd Banjo the same as geno.

Nintendo has had the rights to Isaac for a long time, hasn’t helped him much in the ‘actually getting in’ department.

As for Geno, they did have the rights to use him for Smash, but didn’t. Personally, I don’t see the suits at Nintendo realizing how well this obscure character from 3 decades ago would sell.

We have no evidence pointing towards Nintendo having obtained Banjo’s rights, so that’s (for now) mere speculation.

Geno could be more likely to sell more SNES Classics; it may also decrease Sora's chances due to Disney having a part in his rights (despite them being okay with SE using him in crossovers, they'll still want money) and may increase DQ but at the same time SE apparently doesn't know when the new DQ games will release on the Switch.

Banjo-Kazooie could also get in to potentially increase N64 Classic sales if their games are on it, and maybe the rumored Minecraft content is just some remixed music, though I'm expecting Steve? to get in.

Isaac could get in to promote a potential new Golden Sun game, although I feel him being an Assist Trophy decreases his chances.

We also have to remember that Nintendo didn't just shove 5 characters into Sakurai's face, from his words it sounds like they at least gave him a pool to choose from, and the official NoA Twitter did mention SMRPG along with Mallow and Geno this year.

If Rex came out too late to be a promotional character, why would the SNES Classic fare any better? Not to mention the as-of-yet nonexistent N64 Classic and Golden Sun 4.

 

[TheCJBrine]

If Rex came out too late to be a promotional character, why would the SNES Classic fare any better? Not to mention the as-of-yet nonexistent N64 Classic and Golden Sun 4.

I think we misunderstood that part of the direct; Rex's costume may have been offered as a DLC bonus but they may have meant that his game was too late for the base-roster, as they didn't specify that it was too late for DLC. Since it seems they only finished what characters would be in the lineup recently, Rex could be in, or may have not been considered for DLC as other characters may have been favored.

There's also how Nintendo may have selected some Ballot characters, if we are to believe the information that they didn't want K. Rool to be brought back until they saw how many fans wanted him.

 

[Ninjaed]

Like I stated in the DLC expectations sticky, Chocobo has really good odds of being added as DLC. Quoting myself:

'I'm fairly certain that if Square Enix gathers around a table with Nintendo to discuss which emblematic character who could have an interesting concept to bring something fresh to Smash, they'd end up agreeing on Chocobo.

- Not a human(oid) character
- Fits right in with Nintendo's colourful characters like Yoshi, Kirby, the Pokémon, Samus, ...
- Very emblematic as Square Enix's mascot, pretty sure most parents would know him
- Has a lot of lore to pick ideas from
- Starred in several games as the protagonist
- Can use very Final Fantasy-ish stuff like jobs, white/black magic spells, summons, ...
- Has a theme song

He's the one character I'm almost 100% will be available as DLC. So much potential, represents Final Fantasy as a whole.'

So I'm very surprised, shocked even, not to see him mentioned. I don't know what you people think, but he did score very high in previous ballots - higher than Sonic in Melee IIRC. The chocobo games wiki actually sates the following:

'In 2007, the Chocobo was listed by IGN as one of the most likely Square Enix characters that could appear in the Super Smash Bros. series, comparing them to the Slime from Dragon Quest and saying that "the Chocobo could be an excellent enemy for Yoshi" '

(As for Isaac, while I'd like him in Smash, I think people wouldn't actually care which Golden Sun character gets in - Isaac, Felix, a potential new Golden Sun MC or even Alex. Fans would rejoice and be satisfied regardless. Whether that'll happen remains to be seen though...)

 

[GoodGrief741]

Like I stated in the DLC expectations sticky, Chocobo has really good odds of being added as DLC. Quoting myself:

'I'm fairly certain that if Square Enix gathers around a table with Nintendo to discuss which emblematic character who could have an interesting concept to bring something fresh to Smash, they'd end up agreeing on Chocobo.

- Not a human(oid) character
- Fits right in with Nintendo's colourful characters like Yoshi, Kirby, the Pokémon, Samus, ...
- Very emblematic as Square Enix's mascot, pretty sure most parents would know him
- Has a lot of lore to pick ideas from
- Starred in several games as the protagonist
- Can use very Final Fantasy-ish stuff like jobs, white/black magic spells, summons, ...
- Has a theme song

He's the one character I'm almost 100% will be available as DLC. So much potential, represents Final Fantasy as a whole.'

So I'm very surprised, shocked even, not to see him mentioned. I don't know what you people think, but he did score very high in previous ballots - higher than Sonic in Melee IIRC. The chocobo games wiki actually sates the following:

'In 2007, the Chocobo was listed by IGN as one of the most likely Square Enix characters that could appear in the Super Smash Bros. series, comparing them to the Slime from Dragon Quest and saying that "the Chocobo could be an excellent enemy for Yoshi" '

(As for Isaac, while I'd like him in Smash, I think people wouldn't actually care which Golden Sun character gets in - Isaac, Felix, a potential new Golden Sun MC or even Alex. Fans would rejoice and be satisfied regardless. Whether that'll happen remains to be seen though...)

Not being a humanoid doesn’t really help. If anything, it’s hurt the chances of most Pokémon in the last two Smash games. And a Chocobo using stuff like jobs and summons... would be weird.

I’m not sure why you think it’s a 100% character, considering we already have a Final Fantasy rep in Cloud.

 

[Ninjaed]

Not being a humanoid doesn’t really help. If anything, it’s hurt the chances of most Pokémon in the last two Smash games. And a Chocobo using stuff like jobs and summons... would be weird.

I’m not sure why you think it’s a 100% character, considering we already have a Final Fantasy rep in Cloud.

I don't think already having a FF rep is enough to say Chocobo doesn't have his chances. It's Square Enix's mascot and you do have chocobo games outside of Final Fantasy too. Chocobo is also far, far, faaar better known than Geno. From the other Square Enix reps, you only have:

- Sora who is owned by Disney but also represents Kingdom Hearts, a world famous series (he's likely)
- 2B who represents NieR:Automata, a massive critically acclaimed success (issues are her style may clash and she's been announced as DLC character in Soul Calibur, but she could still be a thing)
- Slime or Erdrick to represent Dragon Quest, a long-standing and beloved series (at least in Japan, its success is much more nuanced outside Japan's borders)

Other characters such as Sephiroth or Black Mage you can cross off the list. FF7 is already represented by Cloud and there are more pressing candidates, Black Mage isn't as iconic as the Chocobos or the Moogles, Geno is a nobody whose existence came to be noticed thanks to Smash fans but compared to the mascots, Sora or 2B? Or even Sephiroth? Not a chance.

So it's between those 4 characters and I believe Chocobo to be a very strong contender here for the reasons I've already stated. Sakurai can easily design a kit around Chocobo that would be fun and unique. Sora wields a sword like many others, so does Erdrick... and there's only so many ways to swing a sword. 2B would be more unique but has her share of issues. Slime would fit more as an Assist Trophy imho but I could see a moveset for it. Chocobo and Slime are the only ones without potential issues and are 2 well-known mascots of 2 well-known game series. The ONE issue I can see for Chocobo is that there's already an FF rep. The ONE issue with Slime is that Dragon Quest isn't as well-known and isn't Square Enix's mascot.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I don't think already having a FF rep is enough to say Chocobo doesn't have his chances. It's Square Enix's mascot and you do have chocobo games outside of Final Fantasy too. Chocobo is also far, far, faaar better known than Geno. From the other Square Enix reps, you only have:

- Sora who is owned by Disney but also represents Kingdom Hearts, a world famous series (he's likely)
- 2B who represents NieR:Automata, a massive critically acclaimed success (issues are her style may clash and she's been announced as DLC character in Soul Calibur, but she could still be a thing)
- Slime or Erdrick to represent Dragon Quest, a long-standing and beloved series (at least in Japan, its success is much more nuanced outside Japan's borders)

Other characters such as Sephiroth or Black Mage you can cross off the list. FF7 is already represented by Cloud and there are more pressing candidates, Black Mage isn't as iconic as the Chocobos or the Moogles, Geno is a nobody whose existence came to be noticed thanks to Smash fans but compared to the mascots, Sora or 2B? Or even Sephiroth? Not a chance.

So it's between those 4 characters and I believe Chocobo to be a very strong contender here for the reasons I've already stated. Sakurai can easily design a kit around Chocobo that would be fun and unique. Sora wields a sword like many others, so does Erdrick... and there's only so many ways to swing a sword. 2B would be more unique but has her share of issues. Slime would fit more as an Assist Trophy imho but I could see a moveset for it. Chocobo and Slime are the only ones without potential issues and are 2 well-known mascots of 2 well-known game series. The ONE issue I can see for Chocobo is that there's already an FF rep. The ONE issue with Slime is that Dragon Quest isn't as well-known and isn't Square Enix's mascot.

A strong contender isn’t the same as 100% in.

And Sora wields a giant key, not a sword.

 

[Daedulus]

What do people think of Dixies chances of DLC?

 

[Midoriki]

- Not a human(oid) character
- Fits right in with Nintendo's colourful characters like Yoshi, Kirby, the Pokémon, Samus, ...
- Very emblematic as Square Enix's mascot, pretty sure most parents would know him
- Has a lot of lore to pick ideas from
- Starred in several games as the protagonist
- Can use very Final Fantasy-ish stuff like jobs, white/black magic spells, summons, ...
- Has a theme song

Surprised you didn't mention Chocobo being in the Smash 4 Mii Fighter DLC gear, since a whole third of our new fighters had representation there. Its a decent indicator that Sakurai has thought about a character and that Nintendo thinks they could sell DLC, but still by no means a guarantee.

I'd be very surprised if we didn't get at least one more fighter from that group. Lloyd, Heihachi, Monster Hunter, Geno, Toad, Tails, and Chocobo all seem like reasonable guesses. Tails, Geno, Toad, and Chocobo already have decent stage and music rep, but its not like another stage from any of those series would be ridiculous, and there's still plenty of music to draw from, especially from Final Fantasy.

What do people think of Dixies chances of DLC?

Questions I asked myself when I was evaluating which of those Mii Fighter DLC chars would be reasonable Fighters Pass predictions:

Would a(nother) stage from their series be reasonable?
- sure, we didn't get one with K Rool, so that would be 5 DK stages for 4 characters. We have higher stage to character ratios for other series so no issue there.

Would (more) music from their series be reasonable?
- heck yeah, there's plenty of good DK music to pick from.

Would Nintendo think they would make money?
- maybe? It might be a little late to hope for a Tropical Freeze sales boost, but she's a fairly popular character who would sell DLC just fine.

So her odds seem decent to me. Certainly not a "no way"

 

[Wonks]

I made this prediction before Sakurai said Nintendo was spearheading the content, but what they hey? I'll stick with it:

Each DLC character will have an Echo that will release alongside them. The Echo will be free, but it will NOT be an Echo of that paid character (it will be an Echo of an existing one). The Echo will be free for everyone, regardless.

In no particular order:

Rayman
Metal Mario E

Skull Kid
Impa E

Geno
Sephiroth E

Dixie Kong
Medusa E

Tails
Shadow E

 

[GoodGrief741]

I made this prediction before Sakurai said Nintendo was spearheading the content, but what they hey? I'll stick with it:

Each DLC character will have an Echo that will release alongside them. The Echo will be free, but it will NOT be an Echo of that paid character (it will be an Echo of an existing one). The Echo will be free for everyone, regardless.

In no particular order:

Rayman
Metal Mario E

Skull Kid
Impa E

Geno
Sephiroth E

Dixie Kong
Medusa E

Tails
Shadow E

If there was going to be an Echo packed with every character it would have been announced, like they did with stages and music.

 

[Midoriki]

Metal Mario E

I do like the idea of Metal Mario as an echo, although it reminds me that I am confused why Dr. Mario isn't an echo

If there was going to be an Echo packed with every character it would have been announced, like they did with stages and music.

Agreed. Still some of those could be Fighters Pass bonuses like the Rex costume is.

I wonder if the Rex costume and any future bonuses will also be purchasable separately from the Fighters Pass like Piranha Plant, or maybe there will be some other kind of DLC package later? Might be reason to hope for a few more echos.

 

[SuperSceptile15]

Personally, I don’t see the suits at Nintendo realizing how well this obscure character from 3 decades ago would sell.

I don't know. I mean, Geno is pretty popular among Smash fans who are also going to be the ones buying the DLC. I think he has a chance.

Spoiler

Also, just so you know, complaining about Piranha Plant is pointless. No matter how salty its inclusion makes you, it will still be in the game and there is absolutely nothing you can do about it. lol

 

[GoodGrief741]

I don't know. I mean, Geno is pretty popular among Smash fans who are also going to be the ones buying the DLC. I think he has a chance.

Spoiler

Also, just so you know, complaining about Piranha Plant is pointless. No matter how salty its inclusion makes you, it will still be in the game and there is absolutely nothing you can do about it. lol

I don’t expect Nintendo to be in touch with the desires of hardcore Smash fans.

And everything we do here is pointless.

 

[Daedulus]

I don’t expect Nintendo to be in touch with the desires of hardcore Smash fans.

And everything we do here is pointless.

Well, yea and nah I mean sakky boi cares and the smash dev team or else they would have never added kking k.

 

[Ninjaed]

Surprised you didn't mention Chocobo being in the Smash 4 Mii Fighter DLC gear, since a whole third of our new fighters had representation there. Its a decent indicator that Sakurai has thought about a character and that Nintendo thinks they could sell DLC, but still by no means a guarantee.

I'd be very surprised if we didn't get at least one more fighter from that group. Lloyd, Heihachi, Monster Hunter, Geno, Toad, Tails, and Chocobo all seem like reasonable guesses. Tails, Geno, Toad, and Chocobo already have decent stage and music rep, but its not like another stage from any of those series would be ridiculous, and there's still plenty of music to draw from, especially from Final Fantasy.

Fair point that I forgot to mention, thanks! You're absolutely right, and from what I can see Mii costumes fall into one of these categories:

- dress your Mii like an existing famous fighter (Link, Captain Falcon, Samus, ...)
- please and appease fans with a costume for a character that will likely never get in (Dunban, Black Knight, ...)
- characters that were considered but scrapped because of whatever (Inkling or Chrom - fighters in Ultimate, costumes in Sm4sh)
- fun and silly stuff (chef hat, samurai helmet, ...)

Of note, you also have a few hats instead of a full costume (Chocobo Hat or the Inkling Squid Hat) but for all intents and purposes are like complete outfits. I mean, what outfit would you pick to go with an Inkling Squid Hat?
From that, we can see that characters like Geno, Tails or Chocobo can only be in one of 2 categories: considered fighter OR please and appease. Now let's list the characters that were in those 2 categories in Sm4sh:

MegaMan: Proto Man / MegaMan X / Zero
Xenoblade: Dunban
Animal Crossing: Isabelle
>Splatoon: Inkling / Squid
*Virtua Fighter: Akira / Jacky
>*Tekken: Heihachi
Donkey Kong: King K. Rool
Mother: Flying Man
Fire Emblem: Chrom / Black Knight
>*Tales of: Lloyd
Mario: Toad / Geno
Wario: Ashley
Kid Icarus: Viridi
*Monster Hunter: Bladeset-clad hunter, Rathalos Blademaster-clad hunter
>Final Fantasy: Chocobo
*Murasame Castle: Takamaru
>*Tower of Druaga: Gil
Sonic: Tails / Knuckles

Bolded means adapted into a fighter in Ultimate.
Italic means they have almost 0% chance of being a DLC (echo fighter, not famous enough)
Barred means they can't be a DLC because featured as an Assist Trophy already or in a fighter's kit (Toad is in Peach's, Squid in Inkling's)
*Title means this series does not have a rep yet
>Title means this series does not have an assist trophy yet

Of these 25 costumes (counting the 2 hunter ones as 1):
- 4 were adapted into actual fighters (16%)
- 8 can't be DLC (32%)
- 6 are unlikely to be DLC (24%)
- 7 we don't know yet (28%)

It's interesting to note that:
- Zero, Isabelle, Black Knight, Ashley, Knuckles were both Assist Trophies and Mii costumes (Isabelle is the only one who was upgraded into a full-fledged fighter)
- Splatoon and Final Fantasy have a rep yet no assist trophies
- Isabelle, King K. Rool, Chrom all come from series with ATs and got in
- Inkling comes from a serie with no ATs and got in
That means we can't exactly find any solid correlation between having (or being) ATs, having a costume and being a fighter. With ONE exception. Isabelle was removed from the Assist Trophies list when she was introduced as a fighter, and no existing fighter also exists as both fighter and assist trophy in the same game. This means Sakurai will scrap the assist trophy of a character if they're made into a fighter.

Anyway, these 7 whose fate is yet unknown are: Heihachi / Lloyd / Geno / Viridi / Monter hunter / Chocobo / Tails.

All come from famous game series - though Kid Icarus less so (I excluded Gil because he's not famous enough).
Heihachi and Lloyd both come from series only represented by a Mii costume. No assist trophies, no fighters.
Geno, Viridi and Tails come from featuring both fighter(s) and assist trophy(ies).
Chocobo and Monster hunter come from series lacking an assist trophy and a fighter respectively.

With all this information, we can finally try to guess which category each of them falls in:
- Heihachi and Lloyd come from series that are hardly being represented despite their success - maybe a lack of ties with Nintendo lowers their odds? Depending on the importance of such ties, they're either "considered fighter" or "please and appease" - though I'd say the former is more likely.
- Monster hunter is pretty big yet only has the one assist trophy. Definitively has potential for an interesting kit, advertising the series some more also helps their chances. Honestly, not much more to be said - Monster hunter is a very strong candidate. Sakurai must have at least looked into them so I'd say "considered fighter".
- Chocobo is also Square Enix's mascot (moreso than moogles, who don't even have a Mii costume) - tons of goodies, so even parents would know him (important if you want more sales). While we do have Cloud already, he could be an opportunity to introduce more Final Fantasy elements like jobs, black/white(and blue/red) magic, summons... Definitive potential for a unique kit, meaning Sakurai has likely given it some thought. Thus, "considered fighter" category.
- Geno faces many issues, including Mario already having a newcomer and being much more associated with Mario than Square Enix - not to mention that despite being popular in the smash fan community, he's a litteral "who" outside of it. I'd place him into the "please and appease" category.
- Viridi is next. Kid Icarus already features 3 fighters (including an echo) and an assist trophy, which is very good considering its lack of success compared to other franchises. There's hardly any demand for her, and like some other candidates like Geno fails at marketing anything - which is a very bad point considering Nintendo made the character pool for Sakurai to choose from. I'd say she belongs to the "please and appease" category.
- Tails is last because... I don't know, it's surprising Knuckles is an assist trophy but he isn't. I definitely could see him as a DLC but I'd wager Eggman would also be a very strong contender, being Sonic's archrival and tons of stuff to mess with while designing his kit. Overall, I'd say Tails is "considered fighter". Feels unthinkable Sakurai didn't stop to look into Tails's potential as a fighter.

Results:
considered fighter - Monster hunter / Chocobo / Tails
please and appease - Geno / Viridi
could be either - Heihachi / Lloyd

Mind that I've tried to be objective here. You are totally free to disagree and welcome you to argue your points!

...
Kweh!

 

[Midoriki]

Results:
considered fighter - Monster hunter / Chocobo / Tails
please and appease - Geno / Viridi
could be either - Heihachi / Lloyd

Wow that was very thorough! One thing I slightly disagree with in your reasoning:

Heihachi and Lloyd come from series that are hardly being represented despite their success - maybe a lack of ties with Nintendo lowers their odds?

We know at least one Tales of Port is coming to Switch (Vesperia), and supposedly the only reason Tekken 7 wasn't being ported at launch was lack of access to Switch hardware. With Bandai Namco helping develop Ultimate and a good chance of Switch titles that would line up with these fighters' DLC for promotion, I think these ties are plenty strong. We know Heihachi was already considered and passed over as a fighter for Smash 4, but not sure if that strengthens or weakens his chances

 

[Daedulus]

Fair point that I forgot to mention, thanks! You're absolutely right, and from what I can see Mii costumes fall into one of these categories:

Results:
considered fighter - Monster hunter / Chocobo / Tails
please and appease - Geno / Viridi
could be either - Heihachi / Lloyd

Mind that I've tried to be objective here. You are totally free to disagree and welcome you to argue your points!

...
Kweh!

You forget that people will only buy the DLC IF They like it. For example Geno would amazingly if he brought over as DLC, if you look at all of smash 4's DLC pics, everyone(Except for Corrin(nobody likes Corrin)) was either highly requested in the community or just famous characters, they would WANT to make famous or highly requested characters DLC because they KNOW that that's the only the ONLY way they're going to sell, Corrin was the Worst selling DLC because NOBODY LIKES CORRIN and very few wanted ANOTHER FE character. Viridi's out from the start, and I highly doubt a lot of the non-Nintendo owned characters could be considered for DLC, you make some VERY GOOD POINTS, just remember that CORRIN MUST DIE! NOBODY LOVES YOU!(lol)

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