Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Hot_N_Tasty]

Just a quick Question....... WHO BELIEVES IN THE GRINCH THEORY

Cautiously Optimistic here, but leaning towards real

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I'm personally 50/50 with it. Might be real, might be fake.

 

[Gerrothorax]

Just a quick Question....... WHO BELIEVES IN THE GRINCH THEORY

Me. There's a ton going for it, and all the "counterpoints" are just nitpicky garbage.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Just a quick Question....... WHO BELIEVES IN THE GRINCH THEORY

Cautiously optimistic I’m team real

With the counter arguements so not 100% concrete but are good against it no question

It just won’t be till the next reveal or the the leaker steps forward till we get are answer for the leak

 

[SonicMario]

Quick question about this board in general.

When we know the full roster for sure after the direct. Will this place still be open on DLC speculation?

Maybe it entirely depends on whether we get our first DLC character announced in the direct. I believe strongly that DLC will be a thing even if the base roster is as huge as the leak has it if it's true. So even if we don't get a DLC character announced in the final base game direct I still kind of feel it'd be smart to keep it open nonetheless. But if the opinion of the mods are to wait until DLC is actually confirmed, I'd understand. Just of course we'll still need an area for DLC speculation anyway at least.

I think it made sense back in Smash 4 speculation to close down the speculation section since we weren't sure if Mewtwo was going to be the only character. But yeah, I feel we can be almost certain DLC will be a thing this game.

 

[ABalloon]

Helllo I hope Issac makes it into smash bros

 

[Daedulus]

Cautiously optimistic I’m team real

With the counter arguements so not 100% concrete but are good against it no question

It just won’t be till the next reveal or the the leaker steps forward till we get are answer for the leak

#Grinchruinssmashchrismas

I really want it to be fake just to give sakurai the chance to officially reveal the roster, the team works so hard on these reveals that I think that all characters deserve to get revealed properaly

 

[IsmaR]

Quick question about this board in general.

When we know the full roster for sure after the direct. Will this place still be open on DLC speculation?

Maybe it entirely depends on whether we get our first DLC character announced in the direct. I believe strongly that DLC will be a thing even if the base roster is as huge as the leak has it if it's true. So even if we don't get a DLC character announced in the final base game direct I still kind of feel it'd be smart to keep it open nonetheless. But if the opinion of the mods are to wait until DLC is actually confirmed, I'd understand. Just of course we'll still need an area for DLC speculation anyway at least.

I think it made sense back in Smash 4 speculation to close down the speculation section since we weren't sure if Mewtwo was going to be the only character. But yeah, I feel we can be almost certain DLC will be a thing this game.

It's too early for us to make the ruling. Though I would imagine we'll keep it open a short while after launch even if there isn't DLC immediately announced.

Regardless, the General Discussion section/thread won't be closing, and DLC talk will be permitted there.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

#Grinchruinssmashchrismas

I really want it to be fake just to give sakurai the chance to officially reveal the roster, the team works so hard on these reveals that I think that all characters deserve to get revealed properaly

Yea a part of me wants it fake not only samurai reveals it

But for surprise reveals

 

[Daedulus]

It's too early for us to make the ruling. Though I would imagine we'll keep it open a short while after launch even if there isn't DLC immediately announced.

Regardless, the General Discussion section/thread won't be closing, and DLC talk will be permitted there.

I personally only frequent Smash Boards during a Smash Game announcement and period of reveals, then otherwise I don't, I'm a Smash fan, not a smash cultist.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

https://smashboards.com/threads/sma...ing-spoilers-leaks-ahead.434391/post-22601350

That’s gonna bring points for team real

 

[TheCJBrine]

So, the official discussion thread is going too fast for anyone to notice, so...

Based on the positioning of Mach Rider's head, their visor seems to be looking down at someone or something, which would make sense if Skull Kid is actually there. Skull Kid could even be transparent like his entrance in Majora's Mask, where the Mask itself appears first and then Skull Kid afterwards.

 

[cybersai]

The bigger thing is that Tael seems to be there. There's a purple circle next to Roy's leg that's not there in the official banner. It looks like Tael and you can make out the wings. Skull Kid looking at Tael makes sense. It's just too big a coincidence....what is that purple circle if not the fairy?

 

[Daedulus]

The bigger thing is that Tael seems to be there. There's a purple circle next to Roy's leg that's not there in the official banner. It looks like Tael and you can make out the wings. Skull Kid looking at Tael makes sense. It's just too big a coincidence....what is that purple circle if not the fairy?

Skull would throw EVERYTHING of. Leaky Pandy said that he would be a boss, then questioning Vergeben and Leaky Pandies sources and Info. Skull kid would be cool and I would LOVE him, but if he's common knowledge in this leak than the community would spin into even more turmoil!

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Hmmm

Remember how kazooie was scared of suposivly snake aiming at them

What if it’s this it’s reference too.

 

[Daedulus]

Hmmm

Remember how kazooie was scared of suposivly snake aiming at them

What if it’s this it’s reference too.

Wut?

 

[epicgordan]

Okay, so I did a bit of digging, basically trying to be as objective as humanly possible. I was of the camp of this being 90% real, but the more we uncover, the deeper the rabbit hole goes, so it went up to 95% sure of being real.

So, I then decided to analyze each of the ten characters that have been leaked between the Insiders and the Grinch leak, and on an objective basis, came to a startling conclusion that it would make far more sense for the Grinch leak to be real than for Vergeben and all the other insiders to be telling the truth, if they even know the truth to begin with.

The first thing I did was look through all the outward hints and clues suggesting which characters are in reality going to get in. To do so, let's go over the ten characters that have been leaked between the two sides: Ken, Shadow, Banjo-Kazooie, Isaac, Mach Rider, Skull Kid (based off his recent discovery), Geno, Chorus Kids, Minecraft Steve (or at the very least, Minecraft content or inspirations taken from Minecraft), and Incineroar.

Of all the characters, Incineroar is the only character mentioned that has literally nothing going for him. Nothing but an echo chamber, nihilistic expectations, an conventional wisdom. In fact, I think it's kind of funny that shortly after Isabelle got revealed, Vergeben straight out confirmed Incineroar; Ken on Morray Towers got leaked; and Nintendo and Amazon leaked the side of the Smash Ultimate controller bundle, thus creating the box theory. And to compound matters even further, Sakurai stated that he would cut down on character reveals going forward, and we haven't had any official reveals this month. This is supposed to give rise that Incineroar and Ken would be the only reveals left. Maybe Steve. Maybe Geno (or some other nondisclosed. One guy even name-dropping Shadow.

And you know what? Maybe they're right. Maybe Incineroar and Ken are the only remaining characters. But which is more likely to be true; everybody under the sun for the last month or so saying those two characters are definitive, if not final, based on something as tangible and simple as tradition and precedent; or 8 characters with varying degrees of hints, clues, teases, and outright evidence suggesting that they would be in the game?

Let's go over the evidence in support of characters from the Grinch Leak:

Missing Assist Trophies: Shadow, Skull Kid, and Isaac have yet to have their Assist Trophies revealed. And while Isaac could be explained away by stating that he didn't even appear as a mere trophy in Smash 4, the fact remains that not only are Shadow and Skull Kid still MIA, but if anything, it seems to imply that their Assist Trophies got replaced by Knuckles and the Moon respectively.

Teased characters: There have been blatant moments where Sakurai and/or Nintendo have been blatantly teasing and dangling Skull Kid and Isaac over our heads. Sakurai tweeting a random image of Rathalos that featured Link, Shulk, and Marth in a way that is meant to look blatantly like the battle screen from Golden Sun. And then there's all the constant tweeting and retweeting of Skull Kid figurines as well as the 72 Hours remaining. There's also the possibility of a Rhythm Heaven being teased or hinted at in King K. Rool's reveal trailer, though general consensus seems to indicate this to more or less indicate Karate Joe rather than Chorus Kids.

Trademark Renewals: We have since found out that in the order from earliest to latest trademark renewals from Nintendo, we received trademark renewals for Rhythm Heaven, Golden Sun, Mach Rider, and Banjo-Kazooie, with the latter having had his trademark renewed by Nintendo as late as September of this year. And all of them were renewed as far back as last year when the game was undoubtedly still in development. While it may not outright confirm Chorus Kids or Isaac as playable fighters, it does seem to all but confirm that Nintendo has at least some grand plans for Mach Rider and Banjo-Kazooie in store.

Sakurai's Insight: This goes beyond just Isaac being blatantly teased, or Skull Kid being teased constantly. This is more or less insight into Sakurai's views. He has stated that he always wanted to get Geno into the game, but was rejected multiple times by Square Enix. Well, he then approached them again, this time to get Cloud into Smash as DLC, and they had absolutely no objections or reservations. He even got the rights to Geno to use his likeness as a Mii Costume just to sweeten the deal (and before anybody says anything, do note that Geno is the only Mii Costume to have been given his own exclusive Splash card). Since Cloud has returned, I think it's safe to say that Sakurai still has the rights to Geno. Then you take into account how he showed off his new mecha action figure that he bought specifically for the gun that he carried as a reference for an upcoming project he was working on--which we now know to be Smash Ultimate. The last thing that could be debated is the one point that doesn't correlate to the Grinch Leaks but rather Vergeben and the other Insiders--Sakurai's constant, boastful love and adoration for Minecraft. Although he never really spoke of Steve or any of the other characters, but rather the content and the overall gameplay. He specifically singled out Survival Mode. As such, this may not be a hint pointing towards Minecraft Steve being playable, but rather Minecraft-type ideas and content being implemented into the gameplay of Smash.

Smash Ultimate itself: The number 1 marketing tagline for this game is simple: Everyone is Here! This begun with all past Smash veterans returning to the fold. But following the August Direct, it further solidified the validation that this would be the definitive and Ultimate Smash title. I do not see any reason to believe that Sakurai and the rest of Nintendo would so casually brush off all but the most sought out and demanded of Smash characters just so he could add in a Gen 7 Pokémon rep. The Grinch leak banner lines up much better than Vergeben and the other insiders constantly suggesting that Incineroar, Ken, and perhaps one or two others being all that is left.

Now, the one thing I did not elaborate on when I first made my discoveries is a simple retort: If my analysis machine is so accurate, then explain why Sakurai keeps saying things like, "I hope you don't expect too many new fighters?" Or "we're going to cut down and slow down our newcomers?" Or "I think we may have spoiled our fans making them think the roster is even larger than it actually is?" Especially since it all lines up with box theory; we haven't seen any new reveals at all this month; and so many people keep saying that Incineroar and Ken are definitive and final (with perhaps one or two other names added in, specifically Steve, Square rep, and/or Shadow).

Simple: Incineroar was leak bait. I think Nintendo is not only doing everything in their power to weed out leakers this time, but also to try to keep our hopes down, down, way down. Reminder the reason I never bought into Box theory was because it was an illustration! And considering the timing of the box theory, Vergeben definitively confirming Incineroar (which then exploded to everybody saying Ken and Incineroar were final); no reveals in the month of October; Sakurai stating that he's going to slow down and to tamper expectations; all of this came out after Isabelle got revealed as a unique fighter rather than as an expected Echo. I think the reason why my heart sunk when I saw Isabelle and was not impressed by her reveal was because it proved shattering of everything we all thought we knew. And that there really weren't going to be too many newcomers left.

And yet it stands to reason that Incineroar and Ken is nothing short of an emotional, defeatist outcome following Isabelle's reveal. Standing in stark contrast to all the evidence pointing in the direction that the leaked characters from the Grinch Leak are real based off of evidence concerning both the characters themselves and the nature of the leak itself.

And what's even more interesting is another discovery that I made. While trying to rework my CSS roster to include all eight of the leaked characters I saw that when I looked through the potential hints in Sakurai's Smash videos, as well as kept tabs on Trademark Renewals based on date, I had mad a discovery that these eight characters will most likely be revealed in pairs. Specifically in the following order:

Chorus Kids and Isaac (franchises born on GBA)
Mach Rider and Geno (interchangeable) (one-off classic NES and SNES reps)
Shadow and Ken (3rd Party echo fighters who themselves were echoes in their debut games)
Skull Kid and Banjo-Kazooie (Highly requested characters from N64 classic games)

The only order that seems interchangeable in terms of order or reveal are Mach Rider and Geno, though depending on the way they get revealed, I'm leaning towards Mach Rider being number 71 and Geno number 72. Shadow and Ken's order are irrelevant since they're echoes and likely won't have reveal trailers. While if you wish to build up and climax hype to the enth degree, I would have Skull Kid revealed first and then close out the Smash Ultimate reveals with Banjo-Kazooie.

This leads me to believe that the Final Smash Direct will reveal the following characters: Skull Kid, Shadow, Ken, and Banjo-Kazooie. It's also possible we'll be getting all eight characters revealed in said Direct, constantly giving us the impression that this is indeed it for the game, only to shatter our expectations even further. In typical Sakurai fashion. Although I am leaning towards Chorus Kids and Isaac sharing their reveal trailers and being revealed separately from the Final Direct.

Either way, if everything I have uncovered is indeed true, then I can guarantee that Skull Kid, Shadow, Ken, and Banjo-Kazooie will all be revealed in the final Smash Direct. And we will get to see the Grinch Leak fully realized!

 

[Daedulus]

Okay, so I did a bit of digging, basically trying to be as objective as humanly possible. I was of the camp of this being 90% real, but the more we uncover, the deeper the rabbit hole goes, so it went up to 95% sure of being real.

So, I then decided to analyze each of the ten characters that have been leaked between the Insiders and the Grinch leak, and on an objective basis, came to a startling conclusion that it would make far more sense for the Grinch leak to be real than for Vergeben and all the other insiders to be telling the truth, if they even know the truth to begin with.

The first thing I did was look through all the outward hints and clues suggesting which characters are in reality going to get in. To do so, let's go over the ten characters that have been leaked between the two sides: Ken, Shadow, Banjo-Kazooie, Isaac, Mach Rider, Skull Kid (based off his recent discovery), Geno, Chorus Kids, Minecraft Steve (or at the very least, Minecraft content or inspirations taken from Minecraft), and Incineroar.

Of all the characters, Incineroar is the only character mentioned that has literally nothing going for him. Nothing but an echo chamber, nihilistic expectations, an conventional wisdom. In fact, I think it's kind of funny that shortly after Isabelle got revealed, Vergeben straight out confirmed Incineroar; Ken on Morray Towers got leaked; and Nintendo and Amazon leaked the side of the Smash Ultimate controller bundle, thus creating the box theory. And to compound matters even further, Sakurai stated that he would cut down on character reveals going forward, and we haven't had any official reveals this month. This is supposed to give rise that Incineroar and Ken would be the only reveals left. Maybe Steve. Maybe Geno (or some other nondisclosed. One guy even name-dropping Shadow.

And you know what? Maybe they're right. Maybe Incineroar and Ken are the only remaining characters. But which is more likely to be true; everybody under the sun for the last month or so saying those two characters are definitive, if not final, based on something as tangible and simple as tradition and precedent; or 8 characters with varying degrees of hints, clues, teases, and outright evidence suggesting that they would be in the game?

Let's go over the evidence in support of characters from the Grinch Leak:

Missing Assist Trophies: Shadow, Skull Kid, and Isaac have yet to have their Assist Trophies revealed. And while Isaac could be explained away by stating that he didn't even appear as a mere trophy in Smash 4, the fact remains that not only are Shadow and Skull Kid still MIA, but if anything, it seems to imply that their Assist Trophies got replaced by Knuckles and the Moon respectively.

Teased characters: There have been blatant moments where Sakurai and/or Nintendo have been blatantly teasing and dangling Skull Kid and Isaac over our heads. Sakurai tweeting a random image of Rathalos that featured Link, Shulk, and Marth in a way that is meant to look blatantly like the battle screen from Golden Sun. And then there's all the constant tweeting and retweeting of Skull Kid figurines as well as the 72 Hours remaining. There's also the possibility of a Rhythm Heaven being teased or hinted at in King K. Rool's reveal trailer, though general consensus seems to indicate this to more or less indicate Karate Joe rather than Chorus Kids.

Trademark Renewals: We have since found out that in the order from earliest to latest trademark renewals from Nintendo, we received trademark renewals for Rhythm Heaven, Golden Sun, Mach Rider, and Banjo-Kazooie, with the latter having had his trademark renewed by Nintendo as late as September of this year. And all of them were renewed as far back as last year when the game was undoubtedly still in development. While it may not outright confirm Chorus Kids or Isaac as playable fighters, it does seem to all but confirm that Nintendo has at least some grand plans for Mach Rider and Banjo-Kazooie in store.

Sakurai's Insight: This goes beyond just Isaac being blatantly teased, or Skull Kid being teased constantly. This is more or less insight into Sakurai's views. He has stated that he always wanted to get Geno into the game, but was rejected multiple times by Square Enix. Well, he then approached them again, this time to get Cloud into Smash as DLC, and they had absolutely no objections or reservations. He even got the rights to Geno to use his likeness as a Mii Costume just to sweeten the deal (and before anybody says anything, do note that Geno is the only Mii Costume to have been given his own exclusive Splash card). Since Cloud has returned, I think it's safe to say that Sakurai still has the rights to Geno. Then you take into account how he showed off his new mecha action figure that he bought specifically for the gun that he carried as a reference for an upcoming project he was working on--which we now know to be Smash Ultimate. The last thing that could be debated is the one point that doesn't correlate to the Grinch Leaks but rather Vergeben and the other Insiders--Sakurai's constant, boastful love and adoration for Minecraft. Although he never really spoke of Steve or any of the other characters, but rather the content and the overall gameplay. He specifically singled out Survival Mode. As such, this may not be a hint pointing towards Minecraft Steve being playable, but rather Minecraft-type ideas and content being implemented into the gameplay of Smash.

Smash Ultimate itself: The number 1 marketing tagline for this game is simple: Everyone is Here! This begun with all past Smash veterans returning to the fold. But following the August Direct, it further solidified the validation that this would be the definitive and Ultimate Smash title. I do not see any reason to believe that Sakurai and the rest of Nintendo would so casually brush off all but the most sought out and demanded of Smash characters just so he could add in a Gen 7 Pokémon rep. The Grinch leak banner lines up much better than Vergeben and the other insiders constantly suggesting that Incineroar, Ken, and perhaps one or two others being all that is left.

Now, the one thing I did not elaborate on when I first made my discoveries is a simple retort: If my analysis machine is so accurate, then explain why Sakurai keeps saying things like, "I hope you don't expect too many new fighters?" Or "we're going to cut down and slow down our newcomers?" Or "I think we may have spoiled our fans making them think the roster is even larger than it actually is?" Especially since it all lines up with box theory; we haven't seen any new reveals at all this month; and so many people keep saying that Incineroar and Ken are definitive and final (with perhaps one or two other names added in, specifically Steve, Square rep, and/or Shadow).

Simple: Incineroar was leak bait. I think Nintendo is not only doing everything in their power to weed out leakers this time, but also to try to keep our hopes down, down, way down. Reminder the reason I never bought into Box theory was because it was an illustration! And considering the timing of the box theory, Vergeben definitively confirming Incineroar (which then exploded to everybody saying Ken and Incineroar were final); no reveals in the month of October; Sakurai stating that he's going to slow down and to tamper expectations; all of this came out after Isabelle got revealed as a unique fighter rather than as an expected Echo. I think the reason why my heart sunk when I saw Isabelle and was not impressed by her reveal was because it proved shattering of everything we all thought we knew. And that there really weren't going to be too many newcomers left.

And yet it stands to reason that Incineroar and Ken is nothing short of an emotional, defeatist outcome following Isabelle's reveal. Standing in stark contrast to all the evidence pointing in the direction that the leaked characters from the Grinch Leak are real based off of evidence concerning both the characters themselves and the nature of the leak itself.

And what's even more interesting is another discovery that I made. While trying to rework my CSS roster to include all eight of the leaked characters I saw that when I looked through the potential hints in Sakurai's Smash videos, as well as kept tabs on Trademark Renewals based on date, I had mad a discovery that these eight characters will most likely be revealed in pairs. Specifically in the following order:

Chorus Kids and Isaac (franchises born on GBA)
Mach Rider and Geno (interchangeable) (one-off classic NES and SNES reps)
Shadow and Ken (3rd Party echo fighters who themselves were echoes in their debut games)
Skull Kid and Banjo-Kazooie (Highly requested characters from N64 classic games)

The only order that seems interchangeable in terms of order or reveal are Mach Rider and Geno, though depending on the way they get revealed, I'm leaning towards Mach Rider being number 71 and Geno number 72. Shadow and Ken's order are irrelevant since they're echoes and likely won't have reveal trailers. While if you wish to build up and climax hype to the enth degree, I would have Skull Kid revealed first and then close out the Smash Ultimate reveals with Banjo-Kazooie.

This leads me to believe that the Final Smash Direct will reveal the following characters: Skull Kid, Shadow, Ken, and Banjo-Kazooie. It's also possible we'll be getting all eight characters revealed in said Direct, constantly giving us the impression that this is indeed it for the game, only to shatter our expectations even further. In typical Sakurai fashion. Although I am leaning towards Chorus Kids and Isaac sharing their reveal trailers and being revealed separately from the Final Direct.

Either way, if everything I have uncovered is indeed true, then I can guarantee that Skull Kid, Shadow, Ken, and Banjo-Kazooie will all be revealed in the final Smash Direct. And we will get to see the Grinch Leak fully realized!

Wow, just wow, I really applaud you for putting that much effort into your paragraph. I have my own spin on things though that I personally believe.
I wrote a message to Papa Genos mainly about Incenaroar so here it is

I have been in touch with a "client" over the past few days who is very knowledgeable about this subject. In any form of entertainment, one of the first things they decide after the concept is the character design, according to my client, this is one of the main ways that info. gets leaked. This is because the company goes through many focus groups and anything of the sort(depends on the company and their goals) to finalize the list(after all it is the most important aspect of things like movies and video games. After much thought, some characters are then green-lit while others stay in the dust. Incenaroar was probably not given the green the light due to this games roster mainly focusing on ballot pics(Incenaroar was absent on the ballot), how they would only go of design concepts and the fact that gen 7 is already over. The difference between him and Greninja was that the frog came out in Smash 4 around the same time as X and Y, same with Lucario and DP. It's highly plausible that Incenaroar could be leak bate or something of the like. This also explains why during the ESRB leak Mewtwo was given a ? due to the leaker knowing that he was in the game..... but not in the base-roster.

I also made up a little section explaining Skull Kids situation.

Leaky Pandy has stated in the past that Skull kid would be a boss in the new spirits mode. Weather you believe him or not is up to you, what matters to me is the idea he put in my head. It would explain why his assist trophy was absent and why the moon seems to have replaced it. I think it's very safe to assume that all the unique fighters were chosen based on the ballot. Inkling, Ridely and K rool all fit the bill, Belmont was also pretty requested too and the fact that he just made sense, Isabelle was obviously supposed to be an echo in early development, but was later decided that she was too different from villager in order to be an echo, Geno, Isaac and Banjo were also high on the ballot, Sakurai wants Geno in and Phil Spencer wants Banjo in after all. Chrous kids was planned in Smash 4 but didn't make the final cut, they also gained some traction on the ballot, Mach rider is one of those Retro or WTF characters that no-one sees coming, so he makes sense. Daisy, Dark Samus and others were very high on the ballot as well, under time constraints the team made the Echo-Fighter category to give fans less wanted characters, but that were still highly sought after, almost every echo can be explained with this reasoning, the ones that can't are ones like Ken, these fighters just make sense as echos. These are the reasons why I think that Skull kid is a boss.

-This is just my opinion and Sorry for any spelling errors: Daedulus

 

[epicgordan]

Wow, just wow, I really applaud you for putting that much effort into your paragraph. I have my own spin on things though that I personally believe.
I wrote a message to Papa Genos mainly about Incenaroar so here it is

I have been in touch with a "client" over the past few days who is very knowledgeable about this subject. In any form of entertainment, one of the first things they decide after the concept is the character design, according to my client, this is one of the main ways that info. gets leaked. This is because the company goes through many focus groups and anything of the sort(depends on the company and their goals) to finalize the list(after all it is the most important aspect of things like movies and video games. After much thought, some characters are then green-lit while others stay in the dust. Incenaroar was probably not given the green the light due to this games roster mainly focusing on ballot pics(Incenaroar was absent on the ballot), how they would only go of design concepts and the fact that gen 7 is already over. The difference between him and Greninja was that the frog came out in Smash 4 around the same time as X and Y, same with Lucario and DP. It's highly plausible that Incenaroar could be leak bate or something of the like. This also explains why during the ESRB leak Mewtwo was given a ? due to the leaker knowing that he was in the game..... but not in the base-roster.

I also made up a little section explaining Skull Kids situation.

Leaky Pandy has stated in the past that Skull kid would be a boss in the new spirits mode. Weather you believe him or not is up to you, what matters to me is the idea he put in my head. It would explain why his assist trophy was absent and why the moon seems to have replaced it. I think it's very safe to assume that all the unique fighters were chosen based on the ballot. Inkling, Ridely and K rool all fit the bill, Belmont was also pretty requested too and the fact that he just made sense, Isabelle was obviously supposed to be an echo in early development, but was later decided that she was too different from villager in order to be an echo, Geno, Isaac and Banjo were also high on the ballot, Sakurai wants Geno in and Phil Spencer wants Banjo in after all. Chrous kids was planned in Smash 4 but didn't make the final cut, they also gained some traction on the ballot, Mach rider is one of those Retro or WTF characters that no-one sees coming, so he makes sense. Daisy, Dark Samus and others were very high on the ballot as well, under time constraints the team made the Echo-Fighter category to give fans less wanted characters, but that were still highly sought after, almost every echo can be explained with this reasoning, the ones that can't are ones like Ken, these fighters just make sense as echos. These are the reasons why I think that Skull kid is a boss.

-This is just my opinion and Sorry for any spelling errors: Daedulus

Considering Leaky Pandy's track record, I'd say he's even less trustworthy than Vergeben. Or any of these other insiders for that matter.

Now as for Skull Kid's situation as a boss, it is worth noting that outside of the echo fighters, he's the one that stands out the most among villain characters. My theory is that there is going to be a Boss Battle mode, and by completing it, you will earn the opportunity to unlock Skull Kid, thus giving him a similar role to that of Wolf back in Brawl.

Of course, I also have the theory that "Spirits" actually has other modes underneath it. My theory is probably an Adventure Mode, an All-Star mode, a Boss Battles mode, and a Character Shopping mode. And it is between these four modes (among other things) that provides us with a streamlined way of unlocking everybody, with the All-Star mode being the fastest--yet most difficult--means of unlocking the whole roster.

 

[Daedulus]

Considering Leaky Pandy's track record, I'd say he's even less trustworthy than Vergeben. Or any of these other insiders for that matter.

Now as for Skull Kid's situation as a boss, it is worth noting that outside of the echo fighters, he's the one that stands out the most among villain characters. My theory is that there is going to be a Boss Battle mode, and by completing it, you will earn the opportunity to unlock Skull Kid, thus giving him a similar role to that of Wolf back in Brawl.

Of course, I also have the theory that "Spirits" actually has other modes underneath it. My theory is probably an Adventure Mode, an All-Star mode, a Boss Battles mode, and a Character Shopping mode. And it is between these four modes (among other things) that provides us with a streamlined way of unlocking everybody, with the All-Star mode being the fastest--yet most difficult--means of unlocking the whole roster.

I'm not talking about Leaky Pandys' track record, I'm talking about the idea he put in my head.

Skull kids popularity came out of the moon being unveiled as an assist trophy, Skull kid did not have a huge following on the ballot nor was heavily requested, the moon could just be simple response to Skull kid becoming a boss. The true is is that EVERY unique newcomer has ties to the ballot.... Skull kid did not.

As for Spirits Mode, it is highly likely that it is a mix between melee's adventure mode and brawl's SSE. This is due to my reasoning that 1. It would have been shown of already if it was nothing important,(one the most highly sought after features in a smash game is the story, this makes sense as being what spirits mode is due to Sakurai wanting to hype it up.) 2. This is supposed to be the biggest Smash game yet, so why would they not add a feature that is so highly requested and being kept so secretive? 3. It will be a mix between Brawl and Melee because of the shear amount characters in this game, this would make it hard to animate cut-scenes for all of them, this would probably lead to a middle point between Melee's adventure mode and Brawl's SSE.

-Sorry for any errors and this is just my opinion: Daedulus

 

[BluePikmin11]

The least I hope is to getting my Hanafuda prediction right. I need to win the bet I made with Cutie Gwen. >:3

I also hope to get some newcomer predictions right with this Smash Direct. But 5 unique at max. I hope for a lot of unique newcomer reveals, but that seems extremely unlikely.

 

[Daedulus]

The least I hope is to getting my Hanafuda prediction right. I need to win the bet I made with Cutie Gwen. >:3

I also hope to get some newcomer predictions right with this Smash Direct. But 5 unique at max. I hope for a lot of unique newcomer reveals, but that seems extremely unlikely.

Nintendo Direct 1.11 18! We are at the END GAME, all leaks will be proven real or false, and the ULTIMATE showdown Grinch v Sakurai will COMMENCE!

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

The least I hope is to getting my Hanafuda prediction right. I need to win the bet I made with Cutie Gwen. >:3

I also hope to get some newcomer predictions right with this Smash Direct. But 5 unique at max. I hope for a lot of unique newcomer reveals, but that seems extremely unlikely.

Direct confirmed its 40 minutes longer than 50 fact extravaganza

Rip box theory no question

 

[RileyXY1]

Direct confirmed its 40 minutes longer than 50 fact extravaganza

Rip box theory no question

It's 40 minutes long, and it's also the last Smash Ultimate direct before release. Any unannounced newcomers will be confirmed here.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Direct confirmed its 40 minutes longer than 50 fact extravaganza

Rip box theory no question

It’s also around 13 minutes longer than 8.8, for reference.

It's 40 minutes long, and it's also the last Smash Ultimate direct before release. Any unannounced newcomers will be confirmed here.

I dunno, I think it’s likely, but there’s also the possibility of the final newcomers being revealed later in trailer drops.

 

[RileyXY1]

It’s also around 13 minutes longer than 8.8

That's because they have a lot of content to show off. They have to show off the mystery mode, the online modes, the rest of the singleplayer content, and all of the Vault features, as well as the rest of the ATs, Poke Ball Pokemon, and items. All of the remaining base newcomers will be announced here as well.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

That's because they have a lot of content to show off. They have to show off the mystery mode, the online modes, the rest of the singleplayer content, and all of the Vault features, as well as the rest of the ATs, Poke Ball Pokemon, and items. All of the remaining base newcomers will be announced here as well.

They got quite a bit of that in smash 8.8 direct as well and we got 5 characters

From reveals its averaged to 2 minutes

So 7 x 2 is 14 minutes 26 minutes to cover the stuff and a tree house to cover the characters

 

[Midoriki]

They got quite a bit of that in smash 8.8 direct as well and we got 5 characters

From reveals its averaged to 2 minutes

So 7 x 2 is 14 minutes 26 minutes to cover the stuff and a tree house to cover the characters

I would expect revealing characters from new series to take significantly longer than 2 minutes unless their stages, items, etc are only going to be covered in the Treehouse. The Castlevania reveal took almost 7 minutes, although that did include an echo and a fairly complicated stage.

 

[Daedulus]

I would expect revealing characters from new series to take significantly longer than 2 minutes unless their stages, items, etc are only going to be covered in the Treehouse. The Castlevania reveal took almost 7 minutes, although that did include an echo and a fairly complicated stage.

lol arguing 'bout how many minutes apart characters will be revealed, shows that either everyone believes in the Grinch or have totally abandoned box and music theory.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I would expect revealing characters from new series to take significantly longer than 2 minutes unless their stages, items, etc are only going to be covered in the Treehouse. The Castlevania reveal took almost 7 minutes, although that did include an echo and a fairly complicated stage.

That was castlevania though they definitely deserved that much time and it also include talk on the stage and assist and Dracula minus them and you reduce it by quite some time

Inkling wasn't focused for so long

There's a tree house after so they can talk about the ones not talked about in the direct

The only characters on the Grinch banner that can get a special treatment like that is banjo and geno everything else can be for tree hpuse

 

[Midoriki]

That was castlevania though they definitely deserved that much time and it also include talk on the stage and assist and Dracula minus them and you reduce it by quite some time

Inkling wasn't focused for so long

There's a tree house after so they can talk about the ones not talked about in the direct

The only characters on the Grinch banner that can get a special treatment like that is banjo and geno everything else can be for tree hpuse

Yeah Castelvania did get special treatment (which it totally deserved). I wonder if that's in part because it was a 3rd party Nintendo classic, but Mega Man was revealed in a < 2min trailer now that I think about it. They might even want to repeat that model for the shock of dropping an unexpected character at the end of the direct and/or Treehouse.

So yeah ~2 mins per character would be reasonable now that I think on it more.

lol arguing 'bout how many minutes apart characters will be revealed, shows that either everyone believes in the Grinch or have totally abandoned box and music theory.

I'm mostly interested if the length of the direct discredits the Grinch leak, and I think its fair to say that it doesn't. Maybe we're only getting a few characters and Sakurai will talk for 30+ mins about Spirits, maybe it will be 14+ mins of character trailers. The Treehouse with a TBD run length makes me think we're likely to get *a lot* of content, but who knows how much of that content will be characters.

 

[RileyXY1]

Vergeben has claimed that Isaac will be an AT once again.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Vergeben has claimed that Isaac will be an AT once again.

I'll see it when I believe it. It wouldn't surprise me if he's lying because of all the crap he got from folks on GameFaqs and that's his way of screwing them over until Thursday.

 

[EarlTamm]

Vergeben has claimed that Isaac will be an AT once again.

And most people don't really believe it. In the end, he is just another leaker trying to get us to trust him on words alone. Plus, after months of silence that is the one thing he has to report?

 

[Luigifan18]

Vergeben has claimed that Isaac will be an AT once again.

I'll see it when I believe it. It wouldn't surprise me if he's lying because of all the crap he got from folks on GameFaqs and that's his way of screwing them over until Thursday.

And most people don't really believe it. In the end, he is just another leaker trying to get us to trust him on words alone. Plus, after months of silence that is the one thing he has to report?

It's official. Vergeben has finally snapped completely.

 

[Captain Shades]

Last direct, last predictions from me, though I think I’ll shake things up a bit. I want to go over all the choices not yet shown and decide which are most likely using the three sources Vergeben, Grinch, and general speculation/popularity. None are 100% at this point, so I believe we should try to look through all.

Characters I believe are 100% at this point
While I think many characters are up for debate, I’ll give attention to two echoes as they have to be in.

Ken - Ken had a very realistic image leak a while back and is said to be in by Vergeben. Ken is also the original echo fighter, so based on two leaks and history I’m certain Ken will make it.

Shadow - The second most popular Sonic character, he was probably requested hard. Every leak along with speculation says he’s in. Shadow also lost an assist just like Dark Samus, so that only heightens his chances.

Characters I believe are 75%
Isaac - Vergeben is saying no to Isaac, tarnishing his chances a little bit, but since speculation has crazy theories about him and the Grinch talked about him I think he has a high shot at making it. It also helps that he’s been popular since Brawl.

Geno - Speculation has said nothing, and Verge has been vague on the Square rep. The Grinch leak did come out and say him though. Geno has about 2 sources going for him, plus an Easter egg in KH3, so I do think he’s up there.

Incineroar - Pokémon rep, which we get every game, plus Verge make him likely. Speculation hasn’t said much, and it seems to be debated if he is part of the Grinch leak, but due to Smash history I’ll put him high up.

Mach Rider - No word from Verge on this, but the speculation community has gone wild as Sakurai did buy a robot toy recently. Now with the Grinch leak, Mach Rider seems plausible as our classic rep, which again, fits every Smash entry.

Characters at 50%
Banjo vs. Steve - The two Microsoft reps seem to be battling it out for a spot, so I can’t definitively say which will be in. Banjo has Grinch, Steve has Verge. Banjo is more popular in the Smash community, but Steve has been promoted more by Nintendo in recent years. There’s a split of info, so I’ll put them both in the 50/50 range.

Chorus Men - Only the Grinch leak has talked about them. They were supposed to be in Wii U, so that gives them an edge, but lack of info from other sources places them in the questionable 50 range.

Characters at 25%
Bandana Waddle Dee - Everyone forgets him now, but he was seen as the 4th most voted character in the Smash Ballot for Japan. Seeing as this game goes off popularity and Nintendo is based in Japan, it’s not too unlikely to suspect the Dee.

Skull Kid - For a popular character, getting his assist cut was weird. Throw in the sun & moon hints along with him being a very popular Zelda character, and I had to throw him on the list.


Now, let’s watch as this list is completely incorrect.....

 

[blueneuronDOTnet]

Given that the roster is now known and paid DLC fighters have been confirmed, I think it's important to pay particular attention to which characters are suspiciously absent from the game. The ones that come to mind are Bandana Dee (the most popular ballot pick to lack any sort of representation at all), Lloyd, and Heihachi (the only costume characters not to have any representation what-so-ever displayed, including the costumes they had in Smash 4).

These all seem like prime picks, and they've all had their share of insiders pointing their way.

Also, side note - I'm glad that moronic Grinch Leak is finally dead. Everything about it screamed that it was fake - from the fact that no one in their right mind would do such a seemingly deliberately ****ty job obscuring their name to the fact that every insider under the moon, from Vergeben and Mystic to Emily and Tansut, kept saying that it's fake. Not to mention the suspiciously ****ty quality that made it damn near impossible to make out any details, or the fact that people kept pointing out inconsistencies in the background.

It shouldn't be that difficult to imagine a fake leaker looking up a company on LinkedIn and editing a random employee's name, but I suppose people love to forget that points in a leak's favor can almost always be explained away by a fake leaker's attention to detail, whereas points against leak's can't be.

You can claim that folks are bull****ting, but the Grinch Leak really was just carried by people's blind hype. Short of Vergeben chiming in, all of these things were known days ago.

 

[Ridrool64]

Spirits are such a good thing for Arle Nadja because through a combination of Spirits, Assist Trophies, and Mii Costumes, she and Dr. Eggman are the biggest two SEGA reps left standing.

Tails and Amy are Spirits. (Semi-disconfirm, chances much lower but still possible)
Knuckles, Shadow, and Akira (as the standalone SEGA assist) are Assist Trophies. (RIP Shadow, though). [Hard disconfirm, without a miracle]
And there's a Mii Costume of (mostly RIP, but this is the best she's had in years) Lip. [Disconfirm based on Smash 4, but maybe possible]

Plus, with Spring Man an Assist and Rex a Mii Costume (and Pyra's a Spirit), the biggest names in Smash DLC speculation are dead. Piranha Plant also means you don't need to be too big in the ballot to get in, and to expect a lot of unexpected sleeper hits. (Sakurai and the Japanese Dev Team considered it a suggestion box, and not a poll, anyway.)

Through all of these, Arle is still alive. That's the biggest draw; now combine that with Puyo Puyo Chronicle, western Tetris, eSports, and even bigger profits on the account of Puyo Puyo!! Quest, and the lukewarm performance of Sonic Forces, and Arle now stands, honestly, with the best chance she's had yet yet. I would go as far to say she is top 20 at least, but my personal pick is top 10 (then again, I have her at third).

SEGA, Square-Enix, and Bandai Namco did not get new characters yet. I would expect Arle, Slime/Erdrick, and Lloyd/Heihachi for their new reps (although if every company gets one...)

 

[Daedulus]

Spirits are such a good thing for Arle Nadja because through a combination of Spirits, Assist Trophies, and Mii Costumes, she and Dr. Eggman are the biggest two SEGA reps left standing.

Tails and Amy are Spirits. (Semi-disconfirm, chances much lower but still possible)
Knuckles, Shadow, and Akira (as the standalone SEGA assist) are Assist Trophies. (RIP Shadow, though). [Hard disconfirm, without a miracle]
And there's a Mii Costume of (mostly RIP, but this is the best she's had in years) Lip. [Disconfirm based on Smash 4, but maybe possible]

Plus, with Spring Man an Assist and Rex a Mii Costume (and Pyra's a Spirit), the biggest names in Smash DLC speculation are dead. Piranha Plant also means you don't need to be too big in the ballot to get in, and to expect a lot of unexpected sleeper hits. (Sakurai and the Japanese Dev Team considered it a suggestion box, and not a poll, anyway.)

Through all of these, Arle is still alive. That's the biggest draw; now combine that with Puyo Puyo Chronicle, western Tetris, eSports, and even bigger profits on the account of Puyo Puyo!! Quest, and the lukewarm performance of Sonic Forces, and Arle now stands, honestly, with the best chance she's had yet yet. I would go as far to say she is top 20 at least, but my personal pick is top 10 (then again, I have her at third).

SEGA, Square-Enix, and Bandai Namco did not get new characters yet. I would expect Arle, Slime/Erdrick, and Lloyd/Heihachi for their new reps (although if every company gets one...)

P-Plant was this games wtf, I also saw geno as a spirit but that does not mean he is DECONFIRMED, he is just as likely as anyone else, just cuz ur favourite character is a spirit doesn't mean they can't be DLC

 

[Oniric Spriter]

I've seen quite a few people say spirits disconfirm characters, that couldn't be further from the truth because it would basically mean almost everyone can't become playable