Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[zferolie]

OK, warning, super large post incoming. Basically its my thoughts on how the box theory is utter garbage and not right, and we are gonna have a total of 84 selectable fighters in the game(selectable is how Sakurai is saying it on the smash website), with the numbered characters ending on 74.

So, about the box theory. Its clearly a mock up. we all agree to that. We shouldn't even be assuming thats how the final design of the box is going to be done. plus there is a bunch of evidence that we have seen that points to just more then 2 fighters. I'll go over them more below but the smashdown mode, and also the sound test screen highly debunks this theory.

However, the question is, how many does smashdown, count characters? Does it count them by places on the character select screen, like the Box does(which is saying we have a total of 70 characters right now including isabelle) or does it count on how Sakurai is actually counting characters, shown on the about page on the smash website. Remember how before isabelle showed up it said 71? Now look at the site.

Spoiler: Large pitcure inside

Now why is this different? well its the Mii Fighters. They use 1 box on the character select screen, but count as 3 fighters. Also, pokemon also is 3 characters in 1 slot, but counts as 1 fighter as you do get to play as all 3 fighters in 1, unlike with mii fighter

This could punch a hole at the box thoery that says 72 fits for smashdown, because if smashdown lets you use each mii fighter, with Ken and Inceniroar thats 74 fighters. so while it fits the box it doesn't fit smashdown, which I am 100% sure Sakurai made the mode so you are forced to play every selectabbe fighter in the game, so it has to be divisible by 12 in base game. DLC will mess with that but i'm sure Sakurai designed this mode with base game in mind. DLC (and if you play the mode with not everyone unlocked) most likely will have it where if there are not enough characters for everyone playing it ends. you could say maybe that is planned for the final roster with base, but Sakurai is OCD and a perfectionist. he would want this mode to actual use everyone if you have all the base characters unlocked.

I am going to assume Sakurai is going to end this game saying 84 fighters in the game on the about game screen I linked, as 84 is divisible by 12, so that means 12 more fighters. if we were gonna go with how everyone is saying we have 70 character slots currently(since mii fighter uses 1) that would have left us with 14 more characters coming, which is incorrect. 12 more are coming based on that number of 72 selectable characters are in the game.

Now, how many are echos, how many are newcomers, and how many are from returning series? I looked at 2 things: The stage selection screen(tied to Corocoro 108 stages plus 1 DLC button), and the Music Test screen. First, the stage selection as thats brief. we know hthere are currently 6 blank spots, and sakurai wouldn't just leave blank spots. He did on the 3ds but I assume thats due to hardware issues and saved those blank spots for the DLC, which it filled. He didn't do that in wii u, which DLC got its own button. This one I feel will follow the later, with, if we are gettin a create a stage back, becoming a tab like in Wii u

How it looked in Wii U for those who forget Notice the DLC button as the arrow, and custom as it's own tab. We could get a simular idea in smash ultimate:

Now, newcomers that are from existing series have not gotten any stages tied to them. I think this will continue to be the case, save for maybe Geno, who may count as a Mario character for music, which I will get more into. So, at most, 5 brand new franchises, if each got new stages, though a retro may not. still, lets go with 5 for this example.

But we can further how many new franchises we can expect, by looking at the sound test screen. as sakurai stated. the music in the game is organized by series, but some series is placed in other if they don't have a stage, or they themselves don''t have much music tied to it. for the Later, ROB, Duck Hunt, and Ice Climbers all are in other). Knowing that, Here is the end of the screen.

Spoiler: Another large screen

As you can see, there is room for 3 more series to fit. The pokemon new comer, and the retro I am sure we are getting, will most likely not get their own screen spot. Also, to help debunk the box theory, more so then the stage selection screen as we could get 5 stages not tied to newcomers, we have 32 music icons listed, which includes and all and 2 mario ones. why would Sakurai leave space open for 3 when he could have fit the 32 icons easily into a 4x8 layout, but instead he did a 5x7 layout. the only reason is we have 3 more series getting music selections, and the box theory cannot fit 3 more series, and verg's 2 picks would not give us 3 new series, in fact it gives us none. so we know for sure that 3 newcomers will be from new series, and retro would not be counted towards that.

So, with those thoughts out, that leaves us with newcomers: 1 new pokemon(looking to be inceniroar if Verg is correct), 1 new retro, and 3 new series fully. 5 new comers at the very least are still coming. The last bit is a bit less solid, but fits how Sakurai could work and whats he doing. If we end with 5 newcomers, that would give us 73 numbered fighters, since echos share numbers. Sakurai I don't feel would end on an odd number. Just feels... wrong almost. so 1 more newcomer will give us 74, and I feel that is were he will stop for the base game, in terms of full on newcomers that get their own number.

So that leaves us with echos, and thats easy. we said there should be 84 total selectable fighters in this game, and we needed 12 to hit that. with 6 Full newcomers, that leaves us with 6 echos to fill those out.

As to who those fighters are. I'll go into my predictions/wants. I do feel that Verg is probably right on Inceniroar and Ken, though I would rather have Gardevoir and Akuma. so first, my predictect/wanted remaining newcomers. as well as noting which is getting one of the stages and which 3 series have the new music icons.



1. Inceniroar. Getting it out since its most likely. While I would rather have Gardevoir, I can't argue he is popular, gamefreak is pushing him hard, and he could have a very unique moveset. He would not get a stage and already is in the pokemon music slot(odd mario has 2 slots yet pokemon only has 1 huh?)



2. Shantae. So many circumstancal evidence is pointing towards her in. Shovel Knight is is an AT, Wayforward is being out of character in terms of shantae and smash, the room sakurai was in has lots of hints towards her, she is a big indie name, she has an over 15 year long history with nintendo, and she is quite popular east and west. I really feel like she will be in this game. She would get a stage and one of the music icons.



3. A Retro. Is so hard to predict what sakurai would pick but we can be sure he will put one in. My want is Donbe and Hikari but my money is on Lip or Mach Rider. Lip has had an item in the game since melee and the only series that has an item in every game but no character tied to it. There are smash only items bit lip's stick is from the Panel de Pon series. Mach rider though could be something sakurai wants to do to rep old racing games and have Excite bike tied into their attacks. They wouldn't have a music icon(like with ice climbers, duck hunt, and rob), but they could have a stage. Retro hasn't always had a stage so its possible this newcomer would not have one.

Now for the next 3, it can go one of 2 ways with it, while sticking with the above rules and knows. Parts of it get a bit complicated, as if one thing happens it effects another thing in one of the other characters. I'll try to be as clear as I can



4. Square Enix Character(Either Geno or a Dragon Quest character, most likely Slime) I say its a safe bet we are getting a Square character. Not just due to Vergaben, but also just how close the companies are right now. Just look how many FF games just got announced. That being said, the safe bet is Geno. He has the support. Sakurai wants him. The only thing stopping him is square, and they may let him in. However, they also may rather want a Dragon quest character, as it is bigger then FF in japan, the series is a landmark in gaming, it started the JRPG genre, and it has a long LONG legacy on nintendo. All these points make it a super strong canidate as well. The character I feel would most likely be slime, because while it is a minon, it is the face of the series, and has world wide reconition for almost all gamers, unlike the hero from any one game which may not be instantly reconizable. I do feel though one will be base and the other be DLC. If it is Base Geno, I feel like Geno will get a stage but not a music icon, as it can easily be added to the second mario icon on that music screen(if you watch the 8 8 18 direct you'll see 2 mario icons at the top), but it's also possible he could get his own music icon if either of the first 2 options in character 5 happens. If it is a Slime in base game, the would most likely have a stage (maybe the Monster arena in 8, or the Casino as every game has a Casino with bunny girls in the back ground, another big part of the series), and will have their own music icon.



5. Elma, Bandana Waddle Dee OR one of the ones in slot 6. Yeah this is a crazy slot but there is a reason for it. I feel like we still could get newcomers from series in the game still, and of the remaining choices its either Elma from Xenoblade Chronicals X, or Bandana Waddle Dee for Kirby. Elma has a strong chance due to Sakurai being a huge fan of the series, him buying a mecha figure for a model reference for an upcoming game back in 2015(smash), and Rex and pyra too new and most likely being DLC. Bandana Waddle Dee has a chance due to sakurai creating him, is quite popular in the series, is considered one of the 4 main characters and gets the merch along with that, and is popular in japan. If either of these 2 are in they won't get a stage and won't get a music slot as their series already has one.



6. Isaac OR Banjo and Kazooie. Both of these characters have a strong chance. Isaac due to the huge fan support, Golden Sun's copyright being renewed earlier then Nintendo normally does these things, and moveset potential. Banjo and Kazooie is due to Sakurai wanting him WAY back in melee, Microsoft and nintendo close, Phil spencer back during the ballot that he would be glad to let them join the game, most likely a very high fan and ballot suppot, and the rumors of a minecraft stage by vergaben. For that last one, if Sakurai had to go make a deal for a minecraft stage with Microsoft, I very easily can see Sakurai also making a Banjo and Kazooie deal as well. Both of these characters would get their own stage (Venus lighthouse seems best for Isaac, and Spiral Mountain seems best for Banjo and Kazooie), and both would get music Icons on the sound screen. As I said in slot 5, I could see one of these 2 being the 5th character and the other the 6th. That can still fit in the rules we have set of 5 new stages and 3 new series in the sound test, if retro doesn't get a stage, and Geno doesn't get a stage(if we also get that minecraft stage with Banjo's stage too) and Geno shares music with Mario.

So before I get to the echos, since those last 3 character reasonings could be a bit complicated, let me give 2 examples I see happening, with the characters, music icons, and stages.

Option 1:
Incineroar(No stage, no music icon)
Shantae(Stage, music icon)
Retro(stage, no music icon)
Slime(Stage, Music icon)
Elma(no stage, no music icon)
Isaac(Stage, music icon)
Total: 6 character, 5 stages, 3 music icons

Option 2:
Incineroar(No stage, no music icon)
Shantae(Stage, music icon)
Retro(no stage, no music icon)
Geno(no stage, no music icon music is in mario icon)
Banjo and Kazooie(Stage, music icon)
Isaac(stage, music icon)
Total: 6 characters, 4 stages with 5th being the rumored minecraft one, 3 music icons


As for the echos, as said before, with 6 more unique newcomers 6 echos will let us hit the 84 selectable fighters.



1. Ken: While I want Akuma, I am accepting Ken is happening.



2. Shadow. Other then ken he just makes the most sense for an echo.



3. Dixie Kong. I know I may get crap but isabelle doesn't solidify Dixie as being unique. If she was going to be in as a unique she would have appeared with K Rool, and that end part of the trailer just screens "Start of dixie echo trailer". Plus, Isabelle is MUCH bigger then Dixie and I don't think Sakurai could make a character that important an echo. Dixie will have the chrom treatment.



4. Medusa. Another Villain, and our first female villain. Could be a super easy echo of Palutena, just replace down b with Heavenly light(but dakr of course), add dark and snake effects to some moves over the wings, and you are sold. Plus she is a Sakurai baby so it would be easy to get her in.



5. Black Shadow. Melee Ganondorf, but even more like falcon nd make his attacks have an electric effect instead of fire. Lose the unique Up tilt and any other unique moves melee ganondorf had, and you got a Melee playstyle basically back, like with Pichu and Young Link returnign with those lost melee playstyles. I think keeping how Melee Ganondorf's side B punched down instead of up is fine and still fitting for an echo. F zero needs another rep and a villain echo would be a perfect way



6. Impa. If Mario and FE are getting an echo, Zelda is too. Impa is a staple of the series in multiple games, so her being a rep as a clone of shielk makes sense. Now what version they would use is anyones guess. I would love hyrule warrios looks but that may be somewhat tied to Techmo, so I can see either OoT look or Skyward sword look(as thats one of the main 3d zelda games not represented by a character design(Shiek still seems to be sporting the if she was in twilit princess look)

Well that was pretty massive. sorry about that. I have just been thinking so much about this that I had to write it down. I hope the long text didn't scare any of you away.

Made a bunch of edits for adding pictures as I feel it looks better then just a wall of text

 

[blueneuronDOTnet]

Shantae supporters are really stretching, I think. She has far less things pointing her way than half the candidates out there, yet a lot of them seem to love acting like she's essentially confirmed.

 

[zferolie]

Shantae supporters are really stretching, I think. She has far less things pointing her way than half the candidates out there, yet a lot of them seem to love acting like she's essentially confirmed.

Its probably partially due to our bias to her. I guess realistically, she has a 50/50 shot. It feels like she is in the game for sure somehow, but playable or not is another story, but we would rather have her playable.

 

[blueneuronDOTnet]

Its probably partially due to our bias to her. I guess realistically, she has a 50/50 shot. It feels like she is in the game for sure somehow, but playable or not is another story, but we would rather have her playable.

Even 50/50 is seriously overestimating it. Even characters with low chances like Lloyd have far more going their way than Shantae. I can understand Isaac and BWD thinking that they stand solid chances, but someone like Shantae is far, far less likely Just look at something like Pete Hines' list of likely newcomers and try to get some perspective for the kind of competition Shantae is looking at. She is beaten out by an easy dozen characters in just about every respect, and we have far less than a dozen character slots left, yet you're literally giving her a 50% percent chance of making it in anyway.

I had a similar conversation on Reddit, where I compared Shantae to Lloyd to illustrate my point of Shantae just not stacking up to the competition, so I'll just quote that:

• Sakurai has met Shantae's devs?
  Not only are Lloyd's devs co-developing Smash Ultimate, they are openly pushing for a Tales rep.
  
  
• Shantae has a history with Nintendo?
  Lloyd has had several bestselling games on Nintendo consoles, his series is one of the most successful japanese gaming IPs of all time with over 2 billion in sales. Did I mention that there was literally a Lloyd-themed Gamecube edition?
  
  
• Shantae is popular?
  Lloyd was tremendously popular on the ballot, so much so that he got a Mii costume. Lloyd's series has animes, mangas, movies, over two dozen escort titles, pachislot machines, an annual festival hosted in stadiums that sees over 20k attendees a year, and a ridiculous amount of merchandise. Did I mention that it was considered for a ride at Universal Studios Japan alongside IPs like Sailor Moon, Final Fantasy, and Detective Conan? Oh, and there's the fact that Lloyd literally beat Shantae in the tournament poll.
  
  
• Shantae is in Nintendo's eShop?
  Tales has two new mothership titles on their way to the Switch, one due for release and one due for a reveal right when Smash Ultimate drops.

 

[zferolie]

Even 50/50 is seriously overestimating it. Even characters with low chances like Lloyd have far more going their way than Shantae. I can understand Isaac and BWD thinking that they stand solid chances, but someone like Shantae is far, far less likely Just look at something like Pete Hines' list of likely newcomers and try to get some perspective for the kind of competition Shantae is looking at. She is beaten out by an easy dozen characters in just about every respect, and we have far less than a dozen character slots left, yet you're literally giving her a 50% percent chance of making it in anyway.

I had a similar conversation on Reddit, where I compared Shantae to Lloyd to illustrate my point of Shantae just not stacking up to the competition, so I'll just quote that:

I saw that list, and yeah I can see all them happening and from a logical standpoint they all make more sense then shantae. Its odd though that he doesn't mention Dragon quest, as I feel from a pure logical standpoint that makes the most sense as a square rep, due to huge Japanese popularity and the massive effect it had in video game culture, basically starting the JRPG genre

I honestly feel like Llyod deserves to be in. In my list its hard to fit him in though, but he can easily fit into the theory I posted over shantae, Banjo, or isaac. I just feel that we are only getting 3 more full on series that need a music icon associated with them.

I mostly put on shantae because I want her a lot and everything seems pointing at her in the game somehow. But Realistically, I can see a tales of rep like Llyod getting it over her.

I still will put shantae on my list because I want her badly, but won't be surprised if she doesn't make it and llyod is in

EDIT: Honestly, let me give an option using my list, keeping shantae in and adding Llyod, and also removing Shantae and adding llyod.

Option 1:
1. Incineroar(no stage, no music icon)
2. Shantae(Stage, music con)
3. Retro(no stage, no music icon)
4. Llyod(Stage, music icon)
5. Geno(stage, no music icon)
6. Isaac.(stage, music icon)
Total: 6 characters, 5 stages, 3 music icons

Option 2:
1. Incineroar(no stage, no music icon)
2. Banjo and Kazooie(Stage, music con)
3. Retro(no stage, no music icon)
4. Llyod(Stage, music icon)
5. Geno(no stage, no music icon)
6. Isaac.(stage, music icon)
Total: 6 characters, 4 stages(plus rumored Mincraft), 3 music icons)

 

[blueneuronDOTnet]

I saw that list, and yeah I can see all them happening and from a logical standpoint they all make more sense then shantae. Its odd though that he doesn't mention Dragon quest, as I feel from a pure logical standpoint that makes the most sense as a square rep, due to huge Japanese popularity and the massive effect it had in video game culture, basically starting the JRPG genre

I honestly feel like Llyod deserves to be in. In my list its hard to fit him in though, but he can easily fit into the theory I posted over shantae, Banjo, or isaac. I just feel that we are only getting 3 more full on series that need a music icon associated with them.

I mostly put on shantae because I want her a lot and everything seems pointing at her in the game somehow. But Realistically, I can see a tales of rep like Llyod getting it over her.

I still will put shantae on my list because I want her badly, but won't be surprised if she doesn't make it and llyod is in

EDIT: Honestly, let me give an option using my list, keeping shantae in and adding Llyod, and also removing Shantae and adding llyod.

Option 1:
1. Incineroar(no stage, no music icon)
2. Shantae(Stage, music con)
3. Retro(no stage, no music icon)
4. Llyod(Stage, music icon)
5. Geno(stage, no music icon)
6. Isaac.(stage, music icon)
Total: 6 characters, 5 stages, 3 music icons

Option 2:
1. Incineroar(no stage, no music icon)
2. Banjo and Kazooie(Stage, music con)
3. Retro(no stage, no music icon)
4. Llyod(Stage, music icon)
5. Geno(no stage, no music icon)
6. Isaac.(stage, music icon)
Total: 6 characters, 4 stages(plus rumored Mincraft), 3 music icons)

I think you're missing my point. It's not about Shantae versus Lloyd, it's about Shantae just not being able to really keep up with other candidates - not even the candidates that are considered to be less likely.

 

[zferolie]

I think you're missing my point. It's not about Shantae versus Lloyd, it's about Shantae just not being able to really keep up with other candidates - not even the candidates that are considered to be less likely.

gotcha, And thats why I added the non shantae option there. Yeah from a pure logical standpoint, looking at the numbers and such, it would make less sense for shantae to be in. But if Nintendo wanted to rep the indie scene, which they very well might want to do with how hard they are pushing indie games, she is the best choice of all the big name long lasting indies. Well, Touhou is bigger in japan but would Sakurai put a touhou character in?

 

[LifelessCorpse]

Even 50/50 is seriously overestimating it. Even characters with low chances like Lloyd have far more going their way than Shantae. I can understand Isaac and BWD thinking that they stand solid chances, but someone like Shantae is far, far less likely Just look at something like Pete Hines' list of likely newcomers and try to get some perspective for the kind of competition Shantae is looking at. She is beaten out by an easy dozen characters in just about every respect, and we have far less than a dozen character slots left, yet you're literally giving her a 50% percent chance of making it in anyway.

I had a similar conversation on Reddit, where I compared Shantae to Lloyd to illustrate my point of Shantae just not stacking up to the competition, so I'll just quote that:

YOOO

MAY I PRESENT

THE BETHESDA THEORY'

 

[zferolie]

YOOO

MAY I PRESENT

THE BETHESDA THEORY'

Doomguy for smash!

 

[EricTheGamerman]

As much as I’d love to see Shantae in Smash, I just don’t think she has a chance for the base game with the limited number of spots. A lot of her support I feel hinges on Wayforward’s silence, and I’ve never been convinced that is the most compelling argument as to why she is such a given. Sure, Shovel Knight is an assist, but she could still end up one as we don’t have that precedent for indie characters in Smash yet.

The pajamas stuff seems cheeky, I’ll admit that much, but again, I’m not convinced. Of the remaining characters with heavy support I think she just has the most uphill battle outside of maybe Microsoft characters.

I’d love to see her in though, I really would as a nice nod to her history with Nintendo and as indie representation, but Shovel Knight Assist is worth enough in its own right to that end.

 

[blueneuronDOTnet]

YOOO

MAY I PRESENT

THE BETHESDA THEORY'

I think you're reaching here. I doubt someone that prominent would break an NDA.

 

[AuraCuba]

Wouldn't The Prince Of All Cosmos or Klonoa be the more appropriate Namco Rep?

 

[blueneuronDOTnet]

Wouldn't The Prince Of All Cosmos or Klonoa be the more appropriate Namco Rep?

Unlikely. Lloyd is more relevant, has a stronger Nintendo history, and is far more successful.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Wouldn't The Prince Of All Cosmos or Klonoa be the more appropriate Namco Rep?

Definitely not Klonoa, and while you might have something with the Prince, Heihachi beats him on every point.

 

[Dan]

Microsoft? - They will get one franchise in the base roster, most likely are the three amigos; Halo, Banjo, and Minecraft. I’m guessing a new character plus an echo for the franchise, but since Verge said Minecraft, it’ll probably be Steve with an Alex echo, sorry.


Basically we will be getting Geno, Skull Kid, Inciniroar, Bandana Waddle Dee, Isaac, and a Microsoft rep as characters in the next few months as my prediction.

This is so true; this proves there should've been an age restriction on ballot voting. I really hope Banjo gets in and it's just a Minecraft stage.

I think it's an even tossup between Steve and Banjo (once again, sadly), but Master Chief could be that dark horse candidate as an epic end reveal, like pushing what Cloud did one step further, but I don't think it's necessary.

One character I'm thinking would be an amazing, respectful fit would be Cuphead; he doesn't even have a support thread, and Mugman for the easy Echo/alternate.

Also, your predictions remind me of when Smash 3DS launched and there was still room for like seven more characters, and we ended up being disappointed. I know this man all too well; I'll keep my expectations at Ken, Incineroar and a potential Geno DLC reveal.

 

[AuraCuba]

I mean, Katamari is getting a Switch (and PC) exclusive port, of the original cult classic Damacy no less.

 

[Dan]

I mean, Katamari is getting a Switch (and PC) exclusive port, of the original cult classic Damacy no less.

That would also be an amazing choice; that struck me when I was rewatching the Direct.

 

[AuraCuba]

That would also be an amazing choice; that struck me when I was rewatching the Direct.

A moveset where the character is always carrying an object would be really cool.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

People are still forgetting Verge only said Minecraft representation so it could be a stage or assist trophy. Who knows maybe if Steve gets in Base we could then get Banjo-Kazooie as DLC. I'd be fine with that.

Bonus too. Master Chief as a Mii Costume. I think that'd be a perfect Nintendo-Microsoft deal to have those three things happen.

 

[Dan]

People are still forgetting Verge only said Minecraft representation so it could be a stage or assist trophy. Who knows maybe if Steve gets in Base we could then get Banjo-Kazooie as DLC. I'd be fine with that.

Bonus too. Master Chief as a Mii Costume. I think that'd be a perfect Nintendo-Microsoft deal to have those three things happen.

I'm not crazy about the idea, but I'll admit Master Chief as a full-blown character with guns, energy sword, plasma grenades, etc. would be pretty legit.

 

[Captain Shades]

I guess I do have a question in general. Why are you all believing that we might have 5-6 unique newcomers left? Again, I love that optimism in the face of recent situations, but I just can’t see it personally. I’m genuinely curious as to where that optimism comes from and definitely not criticizing the idea. Its speculation and the fun of it is having different opinions and good discussion after all.

Sorry, I’m late on this.

I believe there will be 6 more due to Sakurai wanting to make this the ultimate Smash, plus there have been many hints and leaks, and Sakurai isn’t cruel when it comes to hints.

According to Verge we potentially have Inciniroar and Geno being in the base roster, Geno due to his Square leak, so that would be two pretty much confirmed as Verge has a good record.

If we go by hints, then Skull Kid and Isaac make perfect sense. Sakurai knows the Smash community, and he wouldn’t toy with them by posting a clear Golden Sun pic than not follow up. While Skull Kid is a weirder case, if K Rool was hinted at by the room, and one of the most popular Zelda characters is completely absent, that would suck if he wasn’t a character. The two of them are popular, and since this seems to be the fans Smash, having a franchise they want in would be a must, than include a Zelda character that isn’t Link or Zelda (maybe 2 with an Impa echo) than the fans would be extremely happy as they’ve been requesting this since Brawl.

Now for a second 3rd party, I believe it’ll happen due to tradition. We’ve have two in the base roster of every title since Brawl (Snake and Sonic in Brawl, Mega Man and Pac-Man in Wii U), so assuming Geno doesn’t count as he is a Mario character, then I think we can safely assume another is coming.

Bandana Waddle Dee is the hardest to justify. Though I think most will say he has a tremendous amount of popularity, and not having him leaves a feeling of incompleteness in the Kirby roster. BWD is also extremely popular in Japan and is technically a Sakurai made character, so I feel that it’d be foolish for Sakurai to pass up the opportunity. Also, I want to add that Mario, Link, Pikachu, and Kirby are the four mascots of Smash, so ending with new characters from each of their franchises seems fitting in a way.

I feel we could get another character though, as that would make an even 12 newcomers, same as Smash 64. I have this theory as there is a huge emphasis on Smash 64 this time around, with us literally starting with the original 12. The only issue is that the roster may be uneven. Nevertheless, if a new character does get in, then I would bet on either Karate Joe from Rythm Heaven since that franchise is popular with the Smash community, or Elma from Xenoblade as she is popular, and Xenoblade is a big franchise now.

After those characters, than some echos will probably make it. The most likely being Dixie Kong to fill the original DKC cast, Impa for being popular and the last main reoccurring Zelda character, Shadow due to popularity and lack of assist, Ken because he was the original, and Black Knight so we get another villain and he’s the most popular FE antagonist.

If Isaac or Steve get in, then expect Matthew (Isaac) and Alex (Steve)

 

[zferolie]

Sorry, I’m late on this.

I believe there will be 6 more due to Sakurai wanting to make this the ultimate Smash, plus there have been many hints and leaks, and Sakurai isn’t cruel when it comes to hints.

According to Verge we potentially have Inciniroar and Geno being in the base roster, Geno due to his Square leak, so that would be two pretty much confirmed as Verge has a good record.

If we go by hints, then Skull Kid and Isaac make perfect sense. Sakurai knows the Smash community, and he wouldn’t toy with them by posting a clear Golden Sun pic than not follow up. While Skull Kid is a weirder case, if K Rool was hinted at by the room, and one of the most popular Zelda characters is completely absent, that would suck if he wasn’t a character. The two of them are popular, and since this seems to be the fans Smash, having a franchise they want in would be a must, than include a Zelda character that isn’t Link or Zelda (maybe 2 with an Impa echo) than the fans would be extremely happy as they’ve been requesting this since Brawl.

Now for a second 3rd party, I believe it’ll happen due to tradition. We’ve have two in the base roster of every title since Brawl (Snake and Sonic in Brawl, Mega Man and Pac-Man in Wii U), so assuming Geno doesn’t count as he is a Mario character, then I think we can safely assume another is coming.

Bandana Waddle Dee is the hardest to justify. Though I think most will say he has a tremendous amount of popularity, and not having him leaves a feeling of incompleteness in the Kirby roster. BWD is also extremely popular in Japan and is technically a Sakurai made character, so I feel that it’d be foolish for Sakurai to pass up the opportunity. Also, I want to add that Mario, Link, Pikachu, and Kirby are the four mascots of Smash, so ending with new characters from each of their franchises seems fitting in a way.

I feel we could get another character though, as that would make an even 12 newcomers, same as Smash 64. I have this theory as there is a huge emphasis on Smash 64 this time around, with us literally starting with the original 12. The only issue is that the roster may be uneven. Nevertheless, if a new character does get in, then I would bet on either Karate Joe from Rythm Heaven since that franchise is popular with the Smash community, or Elma from Xenoblade as she is popular, and Xenoblade is a big franchise now.

After those characters, than some echos will probably make it. The most likely being Dixie Kong to fill the original DKC cast, Impa for being popular and the last main reoccurring Zelda character, Shadow due to popularity and lack of assist, Ken because he was the original, and Black Knight so we get another villain and he’s the most popular FE antagonist.

If Isaac or Steve get in, then expect Matthew (Isaac) and Alex (Steve)

I would like to add that what I said about the music test screen gives us a big hint that we will be getting 3 more new franchises that have multiple music tracks tied to them

Future DLC can go into the other screen. Also, a retro(which everyone seems to be sleeping on) has to be coming, and they would be in that screen as well. Combine that with the Incineroar leak that means 2 newcomers that we are sure one (Incineroar and retro) will not get new icons. that leaves us with a guaranteed 3 more newcomers at least. And even then, Geno may just be lumped with Mario even if he gets his own stage, so that means we can expect 5-6 more unique newcomers.

With that, stage wise, those 3-4 unique newcomers may have a stage, as retro and incineroar may not get one. I would assume at least 3 of the newcomers would get stages, as they will be getting unique music icons to go with those stages. if the minecraft leak is right, one of those 5 could be the minecraft stage. That still leaves us room for the three newcomers we know have to get stages due to the music icons. Minecraft wouldn't get its own music icon, as well, not much music there. Most likely will go into the other icon like the other stages that have no character tied to them(hamebrow)

so with 5-6 more unique fighters coming, and if the Smashdown theory is right that the final bast roster needs to have a selectable roster thats divisible by 2, 3, or 4(basically a multiple of 12), then 84 final base roster needs to be the thing. given how the website says we currently have 72 selectable fighters(as pokemon trainer counts as 1 and each mii fighter counts as 1), its safe to assume we are getting 12 more fighters. with 5-6 of them being unique, that means we should expect 6-7 echos. I think it may be keeping it safe to say 6 uniques and 6 echos.

as stated before, three of those uniques are pretty much set. A pokemon(Incineroar), a retro(as every game has had one and sakurai will always give us 1 random wtf retro), and a square enix(most likely geno) so the other 3 can be all new franchises if Geno shares the mario icon for music wish, or 2 will and 1 will be a newcomer from a series already in smash.

FOr the retro, thats the hardest to guess. Lip, Mach Rider, Donbe and Hikari, Ayumi Tachibana, Prince Sable, ect. Good luck guessing this one, but any of those, and more, are possible

If we look at the first option, we have quite a few likely choices here for 3 new series reps. Isaac, Banjo and Kazooie, Shantae, Rayman, and a Namco rep(Tales of or Tekken) are the most likely of all those.

If we have the second option, then we will have 2 from the above, and 1 newcomer from a currently represented series. there are far too many to list but likely ones are Bandana Waddle Dee, Elma, and Skullkid. Personally I feel skullkid is a boss as that is what I feel sakurai would do.

Echos there are a bunch of options. Pick 6 of these possible echos. Ken, Medusa, Dixie Kong, Shadow, Ms Pac Man, Impa, Black Shadow, Octoling, Ninten, and Felix.

so with all that said, I think its very safe to assume as these fact prove, we should be getting 12 more selectable fighters.

EDIT: As for DLC, I can see the game being supported for awhile. Likely DLC characters I see are Rex and Pyra, an ARMS fighter, a Dragon quest character(slime or DQ11), a Gen 3 and/or 5 pokemon(Gardevoir), and some of the other newcomers listed above.

 

[BaguetteBoi64]

I think that kid icarus's hades could be good

 

[harukaamami]

Anyone expecting another 6 newcomers is just asking to be disappointed.

 

[kevinthedot]

Anyone expecting another 6 newcomers is just asking to be disappointed.

Well, I'm actually still expecting 7-8 newcomers, so I guess I'll be really disappointed.
Been saying this for over a month now, but assuming the blog keeps a steady pace of 3 Today's Fighter posts a week, we'd wind up with 8 posts left after doing all the confirmed characters.
That's only gone down by 1 so far because the week the direct delay happened, when Isabelle was probably gonna be the third of that week, no post happened. So that week only had 2 fighter posts, bringing us down to 7 remainder. That could be fixed, however, if they just did another 4 fighter week like they have in the past.

If you want the current math: we got 12 weeks left, but we've gotten 1 fighter post this week already. (12x3)-1 = 35. There are 28 characters left to get posts. 35-28 = 7 remainder.

 

[cybersai]

At least 3 more newcomers is a safe bet. Incineroar, and then some mix of Skull Kid/Isaac/Geno, or Dixie if she's a semi-clone instead of an echo.

 

[harukaamami]

Well, I'm actually still expecting 7-8 newcomers, so I guess I'll be really disappointed.
Been saying this for over a month now, but assuming the blog keeps a steady pace of 3 Today's Fighter posts a week, we'd wind up with 8 posts left after doing all the confirmed characters.
That's only gone down by 1 so far because the week the direct delay happened, when Isabelle was probably gonna be the third of that week, no post happened. So that week only had 2 fighter posts, bringing us down to 7 remainder. That could be fixed, however, if they just did another 4 fighter week like they have in the past.

If you want the current math: we got 12 weeks left, but we've gotten 1 fighter post this week already. (12x3)-1 = 35. There are 28 characters left to get posts. 35-28 = 7 remainder.

They can simply not do character posts. If they don't do any sort of extra post in any week to adjust to Isabelle, then there is simply no real pattern or timing to the character posts.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I'm still thinking Geno(70) and Incineroar(69) as unique fighters and Dixie Kong(36e), Impa(16e), Ken(60e) and Shadow(38e) as echo fighters rounding out to 80. 70 unique fighters, 10 echo fighters.

 

[harukaamami]

There is no time to reveal more than 3 unique newcomers from here to December. 1 in October, 2 in November. They definitely aren't adding another 6 unique newcomers, 4 is the ceiling.

 

[zferolie]

I'm still thinking Geno(70) and Incineroar(69) as unique fighters and Dixie Kong(36e), Impa(16e), Ken(60e) and Shadow(38e) as echo fighters rounding out to 80. 70 unique fighters, 10 echo fighters.

You know thats only 78 right? The website lists 72 unique characters, as Pokemon trainer counts as one.

 

[GoodGrief741]

There is no time to reveal more than 3 unique newcomers from here to December. 1 in October, 2 in November. They definitely aren't adding another 6 unique newcomers, 4 is the ceiling.

They can reveal however many they want. Say there’s 6 unique newcomers left, they can do 3 in October, 3 in November, plus split however many Echoes are left.

I’m not sure where the impossibility lies?

 

[zferolie]

They can reveal however many they want. Say there’s 6 unique newcomers left, they can do 3 in October, 3 in November, plus split however many Echoes are left.

I’m not sure where the impossibility lies?

Exactly. nothing is stoping them from doing 3 in an october direct focusing on the story, and 3 2 weeks or so before launch revealing the other 3. Plus have 3 echos in each as well.

1 Trailer at the start, talk about that character. talk about echos. Talk about some modes, show another character, talk about some more modes, finish with a trailer.

Its different then the august direct but its not impossible.

 

[harukaamami]

They can reveal however many they want. Say there’s 6 unique newcomers left, they can do 3 in October, 3 in November, plus split however many Echoes are left.

I’m not sure where the impossibility lies?

If there was more to reveal, they would just have had another character in the September Direct. I'd think the Smash fanbase would have seen the writing on the wall after Isabelle was the only Smash announcement, I guess they prefer to be disappointed later on.

 

[kevinthedot]

They can simply not do character posts. If they don't do any sort of extra post in any week to adjust to Isabelle, then there is simply no real pattern or timing to the character posts.

Of course that's entirely possible. I'm just saying based on the current information we have 7 is the minimum until they start slowing down. Also, if they do a 4 fighter week, that's just gonna make me even more sure that this theory is right since that'd be speeding up for a moment seemingly randomly really late into things. The only reason they'd do it would be to get the blog back to a schedule to get 8 more reveals.
And in case it wasn't clear, Echos also get Today's Fighter posts. I'm saying 7-8 including Echos.

There is no time to reveal more than 3 unique newcomers from here to December. 1 in October, 2 in November. They definitely aren't adding another 6 unique newcomers, 4 is the ceiling.

I'll agree that 4 newcomers is likely the max we got. But you're forgetting Echo Fighters. in the E3 direct and the 8/8 direct, Sakurai was throwing Echos into the middle of the directs with little fanfare. Assuming we get another Smash Direct before the game comes out, they could easily do 4-5 characters in that alone: one to start, echos in the middle, one to end, just like the 8/8 direct.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

You know thats only 78 right? The website lists 72 unique characters, as Pokemon trainer counts as one.

I don't think he should as you don't play as him especially being he's not labelled with a number like his Pokemon are. Also the miis are given their own numbers too so that would be 80 then.

 

[kevinthedot]

I don't think he should as you don't play as him especially being he's not labelled with a number like his Pokemon are. Also the miis are given their own numbers too so that would be 80 then.

The way Smash's About page counts characters is weird, but there is a reason to it. It is how many fighters you can PICK.
When you chose Pokemon Trainer, you're not picking between the pokemon, you're picking the trainer. When you pick a Mii Fighter, you have to pick between the three of them, so they count as 3 still. Echos also count as a distinct thing you're picking.

On the about page, it's at 72 Fighters going by that way of counting it. We'd need 8 characters to hit 80 Fighters, which I'm still thinking we may get.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

The way Smash's About page counts characters is weird, but there is a reason to it. It is how many fighters you can PICK.
When you chose Pokemon Trainer, you're not picking between the pokemon, you're picking the trainer. When you pick a Mii Fighter, you have to pick between the three of them, so they count as 3 still. Echos also count as a distinct thing you're picking.

On the about page, it's at 72 Fighters going by that way of counting it. We'd need 8 characters to hit 80 Fighters, which I'm still thinking we may get.

Then why is Squirtle, Ivysaur and Charizard 33-35 and Miis 51-53? Throws that out of the window don't you think?

 

[GoodGrief741]

If there was more to reveal, they would just have had another character in the September Direct. I'd think the Smash fanbase would have seen the writing on the wall after Isabelle was the only Smash announcement, I guess they prefer to be disappointed later on.

I don’t see why, especially given the focus of this game. There are multiple reasons why another character wasn’t revealed in a General Direct.

Maybe they’re deliberately keeping some characters unrevealed for some big blowouts a la 8.8.

Maybe the characters that are left are not the type of characters you’d reveal in a General Direct, like Isaac, Geno or Chorus Kids.

Maybe Incineroar or whatever Pokémon gets in (if one gets in) will be revealed in a Pokémon Direct.

Maybe the whole Sun, Moon and Stars idea is an actual thing.

Or maybe there was supposed to be another character revealed in the Direct, but they were cut due to potential insensitivity towards the earthquake (Isaac and Skull Kid come to mind).

Hell, it could have been simply the fact that they didn’t want to make the Direct too focused on Smash (a criticism they received for their E3 lineup).

There are so many variables and potential outcomes that you’re not taking into account.

 

[zferolie]

Of course that's entirely possible. I'm just saying based on the current information we have 7 is the minimum until they start slowing down. Also, if they do a 4 fighter week, that's just gonna make me even more sure that this theory is right since that'd be speeding up for a moment seemingly randomly really late into things. The only reason they'd do it would be to get the blog back to a schedule to get 8 more reveals.
And in case it wasn't clear, Echos also get Today's Fighter posts. I'm saying 7-8 including Echos.


I'll agree that 4 newcomers is likely the max we got. But you're forgetting Echo Fighters. in the E3 direct and the 8/8 direct, Sakurai was throwing Echos into the middle of the directs with little fanfare. Assuming we get another Smash Direct before the game comes out, they could easily do 4-5 characters in that alone: one to start, echos in the middle, one to end, just like the 8/8 direct.

Well, we know Incineroar is coming, and if we look at the music page, 3 more series are coming as well at least. That would be 4 pretty much confirmed. However, I doubt a retro, unless its a big retro, would be one of those 3. Its possible though. Retro I count as 1st party retro, and so far Sakurai has put on in every game since Melee(Game and Watch, ROB, and Duck Hunt) Heck you could count Ice climbers and Pit as retros too. So far this game doesn't have a character that fits that, so I still think that is coming.

So we should be getting at least 4, if the retro does get a music test icon. We saw Mach Rider and Shin Onigashma in others, I didn't see Panel De pon there, so its possible Panel de pon can get its own icon with Lip joining as the retro.

however if the retro doesn't get a music icon, that means another series would have to, meaning we would have 5 newcomers then. Also possible, but that would leave our numbers at 73 for character numbers, and would Sakurai end on an odd number? he can, but maybe not, so 74 is also likely, hence 6 more unique newcomers.

Honestly though, 4-5 seems the most likely. 4 if the retro gets their own music icon and stage, like Game and watch did. 5 if retro doesn't get a music icon.

I don't th

I don't think he should as you don't play as him especially being he's not labelled with a number like his Pokemon are. Also the miis are given their own numbers too so that would be 80 then.

The way Smash's About page counts characters is weird, but there is a reason to it. It is how many fighters you can PICK.
When you chose Pokemon Trainer, you're not picking between the pokemon, you're picking the trainer. When you pick a Mii Fighter, you have to pick between the three of them, so they count as 3 still. Echos also count as a distinct thing you're picking.

On the about page, it's at 72 Fighters going by that way of counting it. We'd need 8 characters to hit 80 Fighters, which I'm still thinking we may get.

You took what I was gonna say as the reply haha. yes, Sakurai is being clear about SELECTABLE fighters. Pokemon trainer is the selectable fighter, yet that 1 fighter has 3 fighting styles. Hense why the numbers themselves are the amount of unique fighting styles, and why echos are tied to the style they are based on. so as of right now we have 72 selectable fighters, but 68 fighting styles in the game

Then why is Squirtle, Ivysaur and Charizard 33-35 and Miis 51-53? Throws that out of the window don't you think?

Editing this in, as I answered it about. the numbers are for fighter styles, hence why echos are the same number as the character they are echoing, they have the same fighting style.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Editing this in, as I answered it about. the numbers are for fighter styles, hence why echos are the same number as the character they are echoing, they have the same fighting style.

Well off to predicting again then.

I'll throw in the bone and say Isaac and Bandana Dee then as 71 and 72.