Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Nquoid]

Hey man, if it worked for Ridley, K. Rool, Banjo, and even scored us a Sans costume, I'll keep shouting her name from the rooftops until the final DLC character leaves me crippling disappointed!

Oh want who you want and support who want. I just find it amusing that people are like "TOP 5 MOST LIKELY PASS CHARACTER" for someone I literally don't see spoken of outside of Smash circles.

 

[Nesysli]

I'm impressed with the Fighter Pass selections and it's so awesome Nintendo & Sakurai decided to keep making more. I have faith that they will choose characters far & abroad different facets of the game world to help satisfy fans and continuing to build up the ultimate crossover. What I love about Smash is bringing in new characters (Joker and the Persona series was new to me) then later I check into their game or series and have a blast with it. It's always introducing awesome new family members.

 

[osby]

If they're not going to throw Nintendo fans anymore bones with anymore 1st parties or lost 1st parties like Banjo, I at least hope the next wave leans towards big, A-tier 3rd party picks that are big worldwide like Minecraft, Overwatch, Resident Evil, Tekken, Kingdom Hearts, Crash Bandicoot, Tomb Raider, Elder Scrolls & Assassin's Creed and not more relatively niche stuff like Tales, Puyo Puyo, Pheonix Wright, Ninja Gaiden, Yakuza, Soul Calibur, everything from Level-5, Dead or Alive, Touhou, Rayman, & indies in general.

Yeah, I'm gatekeeping and yes my opinion is biased as hell towards Western concerns but to be frank the amazing positive response the Sans costume received compared to basically every non-Banjo pick makes me want more 3rd parties who can invoke a similar feeling in the community. I'd just rather skip through continually going through this song of dance of lots of fans being obnoxious little ******* about *insert pick here* they don't know and many other fans being condescending towards the first group of fans about their ignorance and why *insert pick here* deserves to be in over every other potential 3rd party pick in existence and just pick characters everyone already knows about.

I mean, this fanbase used to argue about whether or not Ryu, Cloud and PAC-MAN deserves to be in the game, so it's not like the problem is the picks themselves.

It's Smash fandom being filled with close minded people who hate everything that doesn't exclusively cater to them.

 

[IceKitsune]

Nothing exemplifies the Smash speculation bubble more than people seriously presenting Shantae as a likely pick who's on the level with the characters in the pass so far.

And that's not to say her games aren't good. But it feels like repeating something often enough it becomes true...

Well if they are going to have an Indie pick she would make the most sense. Undertale has a costume with Sans Shovel Knight is a Assist Trophy. I guess they could do Madeline from Celeste, the Main Character from Hollow Knight, or Quote from Cave Story. There wouldn't be to many others that are big enough that I can think of right now anyway.

Sure it's possible they have no indie rep at all but if they were to pick on those are the big ones they would pick.

 

[Nekoo]

I mean, this fanbase used to argue about whether or not Ryu, Cloud and PAC-MAN deserves to be in the game, so it's not like the problem is the picks themselves.

It's Smash fandom being filled with close minded people who hate everything that doesn't exclusively cater to them.

I have a single word to say.


Amen.

 

[osby]

someone I literally don't see spoken of outside of Smash circles.

So, like Banjo-Kazooie?

 

[RoboFist]

Oh want who you want and support who want. I just find it amusing that people are like "TOP 5 MOST LIKELY PASS CHARACTER" for someone I literally don't see spoken of outside of Smash circles.

Can't really argue with you there

I'm honestly just holding out for an official Mii Costume at this point, a wig and an outfit and maybe even a music track (like I'm almost sure Geno's going to get, since no one outside of Smash circles is really thinking about him either). That would be more than enough to make this guy happy.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

You asked people why they want Rex, not why Rex should be added. Nobody has to explain why they like something.

Lol they don't have to, but then why bother responding? If they tell me the reasons why someone likes a character, such as being funny, attractive, daring, or smart, I've gained a greater understanding than if someone merely tells me they like them. They could even persuade me to like that character, which is probably something they want.

 

[RoboFist]

I mean, this fanbase used to argue about whether or not Ryu, Cloud and PAC-MAN deserves to be in the game, so it's not like the problem is the picks themselves.

It's Smash fandom being filled with close minded people who hate everything that doesn't exclusively cater to them.

This is it. Exactly. We're all arguing with each other in this impossibly niche bubble of a forum over which franchise/company deserves a spot, which characters are surely shoe-ins, who definitely can't get it due to arbitrary rules we all kinda just made up, and who shouldn't get in because that game sucks or whatever.

Hit the nail on the head, mate.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

You're looking at this from the wrong point of view. You're all too fixated on the commercial aspect.

So then you tell me what aspects we should be focusing on?

It's not necessarily / just the commercial aspect. To turn that around: it could also be a question of keeping committed fans happy, spreading the Nintendo love to other regions or trying to do both. Somewhere within that scale.

Except keeping committed fans happy is a commercial move in of itself. I'm assuming when you say "spreading the Nintendo love to other regions" you're referring to including characters popular in different markets, which is also a commercial move.

At the end of the day Nintendo is a business. I know y'all want to see them as more than that, but you have to look at this realistically.

Sakurai seemingly affirming that Wave 2 is also Nintendo selections, and that they both seem to want to push more collaborative inclusions.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

>Wants to push more collaborations
>Disney and Nintendo might be collaborating on a Disney+ series
>Could negotiate for Sora

:DDDDDDDD

 

[Nquoid]

Well if they are going to have an Indie pick she would make the most sense. Undertale has a costume with Sans Shovel Knight is a Assist Trophy. I guess they could do Madeline from Celeste, the Main Character from Hollow Knight, or Quote from Cave Story. There wouldn't be to many others that are big enough that I can think of right now anyway.

Sure it's possible they have no indie rep at all but if they were to pick on those are the big ones they would pick.

I think that's what I mean, there's not a whole lot of indie reps who have the scale to be in Smash. Like if Sans and Shovel Knight are given Mii Costumes and an AT over playable status, and I think their impact on the wider gaming culture is orders of magnitude larger than Shantae's series, then I really don't know what to say her chances are. She had a great campaign led by Matt Bozon, that ultimately got a spirit in the base game, but I really think that's where this story ends.

I'd love Celeste and Hollow Knight because they're two of my favourite games of the last 5 years, but I'm not about to say that they're bigger than Undertale and Shovel Knight (although I definitely think they have the critical acclaim that Sakurai clearly keeps an eye on)

So, like Banjo-Kazooie?

Agree to disagree there. Maybe because I'm slightly older, and from Britain, but I see a shed load of nostalgia for Banjo and Rare in general. Literally in February, my partner and I were in Amsterdam and a gaming clothing store was selling Banjo Kazooie shirts (which we obviously got)

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

If they're not going to throw Nintendo fans anymore bones with anymore 1st parties or lost 1st parties like Banjo, I at least hope the next wave leans towards big, A-tier 3rd party picks that are big worldwide like Minecraft, Overwatch, Resident Evil, Tekken, Kingdom Hearts, Crash Bandicoot, Tomb Raider, Elder Scrolls & Assassin's Creed and not more relatively niche stuff like Tales, Puyo Puyo, Pheonix Wright, Ninja Gaiden, Yakuza, Soul Calibur, everything from Level-5, Dead or Alive, Touhou, Rayman, & indies in general.

Yeah, I'm gatekeeping and yes my opinion is biased as hell towards Western concerns but to be frank the amazing positive response the Sans costume received compared to basically every non-Banjo pick makes me want more 3rd parties who can invoke a similar feeling in the community. I'd just rather skip through continually going through this song of dance of lots of fans being obnoxious little ******* about *insert pick here* they don't know and many other fans being condescending towards the first group of fans about their ignorance and why *insert pick here* deserves to be in over every other potential 3rd party pick in existence and just pick characters everyone already knows about.

>Puyo Puyo, Tales of, Level 5, Ninja Gaiden/DoA, and Touhou
>Niche

I'm sorry, but I can't take this argument seriously. Especially since you acknowledge how biased it is.

To speak to Tales of's popularity, read this excerpt from my The Definitive Case for Lloyd Irving:

The Tales franchise debuted in 1995 on the Super Nintendo, and has been between Nintendo and Playstation systems with a singular prominent appearance on the Xbox 360. Prominent gaming journalist Jeremy Parish called the Tales franchise "quite arguably Japan's third-biggest RPG series, right after Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest," which is where the claim of it being one of the "Big Three" JRPG series originates from, and certainly the sheer size of the series speaks for itself. The series has spawned multiple spin-off games, CD dramas, anime and manga series, and even has its own fan conventions in both America and Japan. The conference in Japan is so big that it's called a "festival. It's two days long and attracts tens of thousands of fans (there were 22,000 in attendance in 2014). Did I mention that this festival has been held yearly for 11 years now? In my opinion it's more fitting to call the Tales of series a multimedia franchise instead of a simple video game series, but I digress. The series meets both of the two primary criteria for inclusion as it is both historic and iconic, even having a prominent relationship with Nintendo to boot, unlike Tekken or other Namco series. Faithful representation is incredibly easy given that the series plays like a conventional fighting game, and special attacks are attributed to directional inputs, similar to the well known neutral, side, up, and down specials, which is another pro for the series.

You also know that Touhou pretty much spawned the Bullet Hell genre on its own, and has its own section at Comiket, the largest Japanese fan convention, since people that many Touhou-styled games. Puyo Puyo is consistently popular, but for one reason or another Nintendo and Sega never thought it'd work out in the West, so we get stuff like Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine and Kirby's Avalanche among other games. Level 5 is massively popular in Japan, with Yokai Watch almost taking over Pokémon and Professor Layton having a constant presence with games and the anime, even now. DoA and Ninja Gaiden are still very much around, and that's for good reason.

Essentially, Popularity in America=/=Worldwide Popularity.

There's also the fact that there's more to a character's inclusion than just popularity. Isn't that what you and others were trying to get across in the whole 1st vs. 3rd party characters debate?

 

[osby]

Except keeping committed fans happy is a commercial move in of itself. I'm assuming when you say "spreading the Nintendo love to other regions" you're referring to including characters popular in different markets, which is also a commercial move.

At the end of the day Nintendo is a business. I know y'all want to see them as more than that, but you have to look at this realistically.

I wish more people could approach the subject like this.

Most of us act like older fans are somehow more valuable to Nintendo and deserve more fanservice catered to them, but from Nintendo's perspective money is money.

Adding old characters isn't some selfless sacrifice, and adding new characters isn't necessarily soulless promotion. They are the same thing.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

My only question right now is whether the additional fighters are from Nintendo's original list or if Nintendo's provided Sakurai with a different or expanded list.

 

[osby]

My only question right now is whether the additional fighters are from Nintendo's original list or if Nintendo's provided Sakurai with a different or expanded list.

The wording makes it sound like it was a new/updated list.

Not sure if it effects anything, maybe other than release order of characters.

 

[RoboFist]

I wish more people could approach the subject like this.

Most of us act like older fans are somehow more valuable to Nintendo and deserve more fanservice catered to them, but from Nintendo's perspective money is money.

Adding old characters isn't some selfless sacrifice, and adding new characters isn't necessarily soulless promotion. They are the same thing.

This.

I have no doubt that Sakurai is trying to please as many fans as possible. Nintendo is just trying to take that idea and make as much of a profit off of it as possible. It's smart business, but at the end of the day, it's still business.

Which, again, isn't a bad thing!

 

[OrpheusTelos]

If I'm being honest, the one thing that confuses me about Shamtae is that Smash fans treat her as if she's one of the major indie icons, but I rarely see any of the Shantae games brought up when most people talk about influential indie games. Other than seniority, what kind of an impact did Shantae leave on the indie gaming landscape? The highest praises I've heard for the Shantae games is "yeah, they're fun", while most indie fans will talk for hours about how something like Cave Story, Undertale, or Shovel Knight are among some of the best games ever made. Hell, as much as people like to meme on Undertale and Touhou, they have massive online followings that rival a lot of AAA titles, so their influence there cannot be understated. Maybe I'm missing something here, but for me it'd be a little weird if Shantae got in before any of the other more influential games that do a better job representing indies as a whole. I'm aware this sounds super gatekeeper-y and believe me, I have nothing against Shantae fans, but that's just my preference in terms of indies.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

So they are all 3rd party’s in pack 2 and possibly 3 as well

No surprise there

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

So they are all 3rd party’s in pack 2 and possibly 3 as well

No surprise there

Where'd you get that?

 

[NurpNurp]

>Puyo Puyo, Tales of, Level 5, Ninja Gaiden/DoA, and Touhou
>Niche

I would make the argument that they are pretty niche. i didn't even know what Puyo Puyo was until about a year ago, and i've hardly heard anything about TouHou. That doesn't say anything for Japanese popularity but I'm willing to wager that with the exception of Tales of all of those series/developers are niche in the west at least

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

The wording makes it sound like it was a new/updated list.

Not sure if it effects anything, maybe other than release order of characters.

It means Sora has a chance and that's all I care about

Please let this be the one.

 

[Nekoo]

It means Sora has a chance and that's all I care about

View attachment 237836

Please let this be the one.

If Cloud/Joker/Hero can all dunk it out in a King of Fighter Stage white Atarashi no Saxophone plays.

We're already in the right timeline.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I would make the argument that they are pretty niche. i didn't even know what Puyo Puyo was until about a year ago, and i've hardly heard anything about TouHou. That doesn't say anything for Japanese popularity but I'm willing to wager that with the exception of Tales of all of those series/developers are niche in the west at least

Did you not read my post?

Popularity in America=/=Worldwide Popularity.

Seriously. I shouldn't have to repeat myself on the same page.

 

[IceKitsune]

If I'm being honest, the one thing that confuses me about Shamtae is that Smash fans treat her as if she's one of the major indie icons, but I rarely see any of the Shantae games brought up when most people talk about influential indie games. Other than seniority, what kind of an impact did Shantae leave on the indie gaming landscape? The highest praises I've heard for the Shantae games is "yeah, they're fun", while most indie fans will talk for hours about how something like Cave Story, Undertale, or Shovel Knight are among some of the best games ever made. Hell, as much as people like to meme on Undertale and Touhou, they have massive online followings that rival a lot of AAA titles, so their influence there cannot be understated. Maybe I'm missing something here, but for me it'd be a little weird if Shantae got in before any of the other more influential games that do a better job representing indies as a whole. I'm aware this sounds super gatekeeper-y and believe me, I have nothing against Shantae fans, but that's just my preference in terms of indies.

I don't think its really any kind of impact that she left its more like she is the one indie rep they has been on nintendo systems since her start. That to me is the thing that puts her over the others. But if we are going by general impact that it would be a 50/50 choice between a Touhou rep and Quote. If Sans wasn't a Mii Costume then it would be a tie between Undertale, Cave Story and Touhou for the rep using that metric. At that point just throw a dart at the board and go with who it hits. You can't go wrong.

Edit: Heck going by impact you could also throw Five Nights at Freddy's into the pool as well.

 

[StormC]

I absolutely think the first indie game to get playable representation in Smash would be Undertale (and hey, it kind of did). Sakurai is obviously a fan and it was a genuine phenomenon, unlike most indie games which stay popular for a year or two and then people kinda move on. People like to hold up Shovel Knight as the king of indie games, and he's certainly a recognizable mascot, but in terms of cultural impact, I think Undertale wins pretty handily, at least when talking on a global scale.

 

[UberPyro64]

Yeah, third parties seem to be the future. First Party characters from probably done. Maybe they'll add newer Switch characters in the future, but I fully expect newcomers, like the ones in the picture below.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I absolutely think the first indie game to get playable representation in Smash would be Undertale (and hey, it kind of did). Sakurai is obviously a fan and it was a genuine phenomenon, unlike most indie games which stay popular for a year or two and then people kinda move on. People like to hold up Shovel Knight as the king of indie games, and he's certainly a recognizable mascot, but in terms of cultural impact, I think Undertale wins pretty handily, at least when talking on a global scale.

Shovel Knight sold like **** in Japan. Nintendo picked up publishing and it still didn't do good.

In terms of indie reps or representation, I only see Minecraft and maybe Touhou and Cave Story. No other indie comes close to them.

 

[NurpNurp]

Did you not read my post?

Seriously. I shouldn't have to repeat myself on the same page.

The only real viewpoint I have in discourse about this is from an American viewpoint so I can't speak for the rest of the world. If something like TouHou missed popularity in just America I'd see your point, but it's always struck me as sort of a Japan thing. I'm willing to admit that I'm wrong, especially on the other ones, but I just don't see worldwide appeal for it outside of a Japanese market

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Yeah, third parties seem to be the future. First Party characters from probably done. Maybe they'll add newer Switch characters in the future, but I full expect newcomers, like the ones in the picture below.

Who's the demon girl between the RE characfers and Agumon?

 

[StormC]

Shovel Knight sold like **** in Japan. Nintendo picked up publishing and it still didn't do good.

In terms of indie reps or representation, I only see Minecraft and maybe Touhou and Cave Story. No other indie comes close to them.

I didn't count Minecraft but yeah, I would say Minecraft is more likely than Touhou/Cave Story/Undertale right now.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Speaking of indie stuff, can we get Celeste in there? I don't want Madeline playable but damn I'd love a stage from the game

 

[NurpNurp]

Who's the demon girl between the RE characfers and Agumon?

That'd be Kerrigan from StarCraft iirc

 

[IceKitsune]

Speaking of indie stuff, can we get Celeste in there? I don't want Madeline playable but damn I'd love a stage from the game

Just a stage with like 5-10 songs would be amazing.

 

[SKX31]

Who's the demon girl between the RE characfers and Agumon?

Sarah Kerrigan - Terran (Human) spy turned Zerg (think Starship Trooper bugs) queen by the Zerg Overmind (the Overmind would get exploded and Kerrigan took over the Zerg in the aftermath), pretty much StarCraft's main character.

Edit:

 

[RoboFist]

If I'm being honest, the one thing that confuses me about Shamtae is that Smash fans treat her as if she's one of the major indie icons, but I rarely see any of the Shantae games brought up when most people talk about influential indie games. Other than seniority, what kind of an impact did Shantae leave on the indie gaming landscape? The highest praises I've heard for the Shantae games is "yeah, they're fun", while most indie fans will talk for hours about how something like Cave Story, Undertale, or Shovel Knight are among some of the best games ever made. Hell, as much as people like to meme on Undertale and Touhou, they have massive online followings that rival a lot of AAA titles, so their influence there cannot be understated. Maybe I'm missing something here, but for me it'd be a little weird if Shantae got in before any of the other more influential games that do a better job representing indies as a whole. I'm aware this sounds super gatekeeper-y and believe me, I have nothing against Shantae fans, but that's just my preference in terms of indies.

I can get that 100%. In terms of indie games, Shantae's series is a very fun Metroidvania with a unique transformation gimmick, colorful backgrounds, hilarious dialogue, and an emphasis on style. And that's about all it is. I haven't played many indie games, but I doubt Shantae is "The Best" in any way.

I'm not sitting here trying to say that it is, either. Hell, if only the best and most influential third-party games in their genre were allowed in Smash, I don't think Bayonetta, Banjo & Kazooie, or even Terry would've been invited.

I'm looking at Shantae in terms of indie representation on Nintendo systems. WayForward always prioritized Nintendo, even now that their games are multi-platform. And ever since Risky's Revenge on DSi, Nintendo has been helping WF push Shantae as much as they could. Yes, there are other indie games that are better from a technical standpoint, of course. But which one has the history and partnership with Nintendo that Shantae has? Not many.

Again, Smash Bros. is still a Nintendo game. It's why NES-styled Simon Belmont made it in over Alucard, why OG Mega Man made it in over Zero, why we got Banjo & Kazooie over Master Chief. Hell, it's probably why we got Sonic Adventures Sonic over the more beloved 2D Genesis-styled Classic Sonic.

Is she a "shoe-in"? No, but nobody is. Sakurai's a madman. But to say that she's "never" brought up in conversations about indie games is misguided. Maybe because her games are developed by a team as big as WayForward as opposed to a one-man team or a microscopic team like a lot of other experimental indie titles, people forget she's an indie character? But she's definitely talked about quite a bit, even outside of the Smash fandom. Hell, even outside of the English-speaking circles.

I'm not trying to say you're wrong or that you all need to bow down to my opinion here, but there is a reason why people are talking about Shantae as much as they are.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

The only real viewpoint I have in discourse about this is from an American viewpoint so I can't speak for the rest of the world. If something like TouHou missed popularity in just America I'd see your point, but it's always struck me as sort of a Japan thing. I'm willing to admit that I'm wrong, especially on the other ones, but I just don't see worldwide appeal for it outside of a Japanese market

If you don't understand worldwide popularity then why try to argue on the topic of it? It only makes you look uninformed.

Smash Bros. has always been a game focused around Japanese gaming, with the occasional Western choice added to throw a bone to Western fans. We like to think that the American market is the most important one for Smash, but it really isn't.

 

[Nquoid]

Shovel Knight sold like **** in Japan. Nintendo picked up publishing and it still didn't do good.

In terms of indie reps or representation, I only see Minecraft and maybe Touhou and Cave Story. No other indie comes close to them.

Explain to me like I'm dumb. Why is Touhou such a great prospect for Smash? Like I understand it's massive in Japan and I understand Popularity in America=/=Worldwide Popularity. But I also haven't seen any evidence that it is actually popular outside of Japan.

Like I really don't mean to insult the franchise, I'm just genuinely curious why this is held up as one of the great indie franchises. Like is there a breakout game that is even slightly mainstream that I'm not aware of? It feels like it's a super passionate fanbase that has supported this thing for 30 years which is hella impressive. But yeah, just a little confused.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Legitimate questions here: we got news that more DLC fighters are incoming. That should, in theory, quell worries that the next character eliminates all of the others.

So why are we still trying to disqualify picks instead of thinking up new possibilities? Why are we still this concerned with comparing sales, "big series vs niche series" or "how influential game X is"? Why are we still nitpicking on "core Smash fanbase vs general gaming fans"?

I'm seeing more salt in this thread than I did before E3 and that's saying something. Especially considering we just got a bunch of really good announcements in a row. For the first time in a while, pretty much everyone has reason to celebrate, regardless of whose pick ends up getting in next.

Yet here we are, using measuring sticks of fan support and "relevance". While continuing to discuss the same 3 ~ 4 characters we've already talked about for the past 6 months.

Is this thing really fun for anyone? Honestly want to know here.

 

[StormC]

Is this thing really fun for anyone? Honestly want to know here.

Nah. I've considered taking a break from speculation because months and months of this seems exhausting. But I've joked before that Smash speculation is like quicksand, attempting to climb out of it will just pull you back in faster.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Explain to me like I'm dumb. Why is Touhou such a great prospect for Smash? Like I understand it's massive in Japan and I understand Popularity in America=/=Worldwide Popularity. But I also haven't seen any evidence that it is actually popular outside of Japan.

Like I really don't mean to insult the franchise, I'm just genuinely curious why this is held up as one of the great indie franchises. Like is there a breakout game that is even slightly mainstream that I'm not aware of? It feels like it's a super passionate fanbase that has supported this thing for 30 years which is hella impressive. But yeah, just a little confused.

You mean like the Geno fanbase? Or the Banjo fanbase? Or the K. Rool fanbase?