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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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The_Naraotor

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Shigesato Itoi, EarthBound’s creator, said he was finished with EarthBound after Mother 3, like it was intended to be the ending for the series. He says someone else could reboot the series or something but it arguably wouldn’t be the same without Itoi.
Never played the series, since it's not my cup of tea, I'm not into rpgish game. There is few exception though Final Fantasy 7. Looked up the guy age 70 years old welp if something must be done it must be done now.

There are many Japanese IPs that are very popular in Japan and only niche or virtually unknown everywhere else, not to mention all the games that simply aren't localized. I do think that Sakurai will go for Japanese characters with a degree of international appeal. Conversely, Banjo is a Western character that's also liked in Japan. This is why I think that franchises like Mortal Kombat or, I dunno, Tokimeki Memorial aren't gonna happen.

I wonder if Sakurai knows how enduringly popular KOF is in Latin America?
That must be hard to balance desire from Japan fanbase vs europen vs american poor Sakurai.
 

ze9

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Doomguy could be the "real" western character. Banjo is not really obscure at all in Japan, from wha it seems.
 

Michael the Spikester

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Had anyone posted this yet? Could give us an idea of who we might get as DLC for fighter 5 and beyond given Sakurai's statement of "Pleasing as many fans" as he can.

https://i.redd.it/kp0r03i0lkl31.jpg

If this is the case we'd definitely be seeing Sora, Crash and Steve with Shantae, Lloyd, Geno, Monster Hunter, Byleth, Dante and Doom Slayer being runner-ups.
 
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Calamitas

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Had anyone posted this yet? Could give us an idea of who we might get as DLC for fighter 5 and beyond given Sakurai's statement of "Pleasing as many fans" as he can.

https://i.redd.it/kp0r03i0lkl31.jpg

If this is the case we'd definitely be seeing Sora, Crash and Steve with Shantae, Lloyd, Geno, Monster Hunter, Byleth, Dante and Doom Slayer being runner-ups.
Pretty sure that those results were already dismissed because of their small sample size, and barely having any actual Japanese requests considered.
 

TheCJBrine

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Had anyone posted this yet? Could give us an idea of who we might get as DLC for fighter 5 and beyond given Sakurai's statement of "Pleasing as many fans" as he can.

https://i.redd.it/kp0r03i0lkl31.jpg

If this is the case we'd definitely be seeing Sora, Crash and Steve with Shantae, Geno, Dante, Doom Slayer being runner-ups.
The data comes from a small sample of replies to official Nintendo tweets after more DLC was announced. Some replies weren’t even from the country they were counted for.

It kinda lines up with some fanpolls, though, but they all vary in size. Some Japan polls have Steve and Bandana Dee high up, some include Geno, some are missing characters, etc.
 

Michael the Spikester

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If that's the case then I pretty much see Sora, Geno and Steve being the only likely ones given their demand. After:ultbanjokazooie:inclusion I'd imagine Sora is probably the most requested character yet to be in Smash currently with Geno almost being there too depending if Spirits don't deconfirm.
 

Ornl

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Saying every character has the same chance of getting into Smash is a little silly, especially considering there's a good reason to say Crash is more likely due to his popularity in Japan unlike Doom.
According to Google Trends, DOOM is (a little) more popular than Crash in Japan* ^^.
Google Trends is a measure of popularity, although this isn't enough and that comparison criteria aren't always fair. It can't be completely representative.

In the World
Minecraft > Overwatch > Final Fantasy > Halo > Sonic / Resident Evil > Assassin's Creed > Pac-Man > Dragon Quest > Monster Hunter > Souls > UNDERTALE / Kingdom Hearts > DOOM > Metal Gear > Street Fighter > Megaman / Tomb Raider > Tekken > SimCity > Digimon > The King of Fighters > Tales of > Persona / Devil May Cry / Yo-kai Watch > Harvest Moon > Crash Bandicoot > Bomberman > Tamagotchi > Castlevania > Rayman > Ninja Gaiden > Professor Layton / Ace Attorney > Project Zero > Ōkami > Bayonetta > Puyo Puyo > Shovel Knight > Banjo-Kazooie > No More Heroes > Virtua Fighter > Ganbare Goemon / Shantae > Babylonian Castle Saga.

In Japan
Dragon Quest
> Monster Hunter > Yo-kai Watch > Minecraft > Final Fantasy > Tales of > Resident Evil > Metal Gear / Persona > Kingdom Hearts > Megaman / Tekken > Puyo Puyo > Overwatch > Tamagotchi > Ace Attorney > Devil May Cry > Street Fighter > Harvest Moon / Digimon > Project Zero > UNDERTALE > Assassin's Creed > The King of Fighters > SimCity > Bayonetta / Professor Layton > Sonic > Ōkami > Bomberman > Castlevania > Souls > Halo > Pac-Man > Tomb Raider > Virtua Fighter / DOOM > Ninja Gaiden > Crash Bandicoot > Ganbare Goemon > No More Heroes > Shantae > Rayman > Shovel Knight > Banjo-Kazooie > Babylonian Castle Saga.
 

merchantofsalt

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As far as Western characters go, I think people seriously underrate Lara Croft's chances. She's enduringly and internationally popular, she would represent Core/Eidos, and Square-Enix owns her. And we haven't gotten any ladies yet. Could totally happen.
 

SKX31

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A lot of popular franchises in other regions still come from Japan though as evidenced by something like SNK being included. I don't know if there are a ton of Western made franchises that manage the same popularity in other parts of the world, except for maybe parts of Europe in some cases. I guess the Western market feels a bit more insular than the Japanese market on average, though, I don't have the data to make those definitive claims. Something like Undertale being so successful in Japan again is more of the exception and not the rule from what I've seen.
Not the rule, that's true. There are exceptions, and there are genres which have small Japanese footholds.

Apparently Minecraft has a very big hold in Japan. Given its spread across platforms, that's not surprising in the slightest.

MOBAs enjoy significant popularity worldwide - whereever there's a computer culture of course. LoL's bigger overall (and has an iron grip in South Korea), but Russia and Southeast Asia love Dota 2. LoL has a niche presence in Japan, since Japan does send one team to LoL's World Championship each year. The major regions in LoL are China, SK, EU, NA, Hong Kong / Taiwan (yea, they're a separate league) and Vietnam (for some reason). Dota 2's major regions are China, EU, NA, CIS (Russia and associated countries), SEA and South America. Note that I'm using different metrics: Major regions in LoL send 2 or 3 teams to Worlds, the major regions in Dota 2 send two teams to their major tournaments.

Overwatch has a major presence in China / South Korea alongside NA / EU, but only niche in Japan.

Battle Royales are kinda a given, but in Japan it appears that NetEase's (China's #2 gaming company) Knives Out took out Fortnite completely. Knives Out is mobile, so that might explain things.

I wouldn't say that the Western market's insular - did you know that Arabs loved Dad of War? It's just much more focused on the computer side of things. Take my home Sweden as an example - it's home to Minecraft, DICE and Dreamhack, all associated with the computer at least to start with. Japan's not exactly known for computer games.
 
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The_Naraotor

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The likely hood of Doomguy in Smash is crazily bonkers to me. The guy who represent the FPS Genre, genre that spawned many game that are also called Doomlike the crazy badass soldier who beats the pulpe out of Demonic like alien creatures, the dude in himself smell Male alpha more than Ike or Snake will ever do.

Thinking of this characters along side Isabelle or Jygglipuff is something akin to an acide trip (even though I never took acide)

Imagine the insane game Isabelle, Jygglipuff, Yoshi, Kirby, Ice Climbers and Pac-Man alongside DOOM MOTHERFUDGING DOOMGUY !

BFG-9000 Will definitively be the Final Smash weapon of Doomguy I got already handgasm to think about that.
 

DaybreakHorizon

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Not to kill the speculation vibe and all but
man, debating over how the S2 DLC will work out, and who's gonna be in, and which types of characters
all Nintendo, all 3rd party, maybe a mix of the two

trying to figure all that out, before we even know who fighter pass 5 is
is exhausting
Welcome to Smash speculation. It never changes.

I've only been back for like, what, less than a week? And I'm already burnt out lol.
 

Playstation Guy 1000

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I still do lean towards Western third parties being an exception rather than the rule going into future DLC. I know they've dominated a lot of speculation, but this Fighter's Pass still communicates just how intent Sakurai is on representing Japanese gaming above all else by including Atlus, Enix (of Square Enix), and SNK with a very strong likelihood that Fighter #5 will also come from a Japanese developer/publisher. Banjo & Kazooie are our first Western third party, and they've obviously got extenuating circumstances since they were still first produced under the watchful eye of Nintendo. We've yet to get a full on Western rep and Sakurai has reiterated in the past how he does want Japanese gaming represented in Smash. I'm thinking we might get one, maybe two Western reps, but I don't expect them to start suddenly dominating DLC either, and even then, I expect them to generally be ones that hold more sway in Japan like Crash Bandicoot and (sort of) Sora.

I know Doom Slayer gets a lot of talk, and as iconic as he is here, Doom isn't nearly the same powerhouse in Japan. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the game... but I'm also not as confident as many people seem to be.
Yeah you could be right on that.
 

osby

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The likely hood of Doomguy in Smash is crazily bonkers to me. The guy who represent the FPS Genre, genre that spawned many game that are also called Doomlike the crazy badass soldier who beats the pulpe out of Demonic like alien creatures, the dude in himself smell Male alpha more than Ike or Snake will ever do.

Thinking of this characters along side Isabelle or Jygglipuff is something akin to an acide trip (even though I never took acide)

Imagine the insane game Isabelle, Jygglipuff, Yoshi, Kirby, Ice Climbers and Pac-Man alongside DOOM MOTHERFUDGING DOOMGUY !

BFG-9000 Will definitively be the Final Smash weapon of Doomguy I got already handgasm to think about that.
Eh, newcomers stopped surprising me after Bayonetta said "ask your mom" to Lucas.
 
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DaybreakHorizon

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Crash is definetly a good candidate to be added in Smash, but Doomguy's chances - although not impossible - are kinda low. All this Doomguy babble started when some ****ty *** leaker said that he was going to be one of the characters in the fighter pass before Joker was announced:

https://i.imgtc.com/7E1ItbQ.png

Since then, people are giving credibility to that leak mostly because Joker and Hero (the leaker mentioned Erdrick specifically) ended up being added. Doomguy's name is in everyone's mind since then and now of a sudden he became a strong contender. As i stated before, the Smash community is highly suggestive.
Actually, a large point in favor of Doomguy is Sakurai mentioning John Carmack as "the father of the modern FPS genre" in his interview with Normura when discussing prominent game developers born in 1986.

There's also the fact that Bethesda and Nintendo have been buddy-buddy recently similar to Microsoft and Nintendo, and Bethesda had apparently spoken with Nintendo about Smash at some point before September 2018, which just so happens to be around the time negotiations for Fighters Pass #1 were being held.

Maybe it's unlikely, but it's far from impossible. This definitely isn't a Gardevoir/Gothitelle level leak situation though.
 

Jassassino

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The likely hood of Doomguy in Smash is crazily bonkers to me. The guy who represent the FPS Genre, genre that spawned many game that are also called Doomlike the crazy badass soldier who beats the pulpe out of Demonic like alien creatures, the dude in himself smell Male alpha more than Ike or Snake will ever do.

Thinking of this characters along side Isabelle or Jygglipuff is something akin to an acide trip (even though I never took acide)

Imagine the insane game Isabelle, Jygglipuff, Yoshi, Kirby, Ice Climbers and Pac-Man alongside DOOM MOTHERFUDGING DOOMGUY !

BFG-9000 Will definitively be the Final Smash weapon of Doomguy I got already handgasm to think about that.
Um, okay chief.
 
D

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Right now I am just keeping my hopes up about Crash Bandicoot getting in while at the same time letting myself be open towards any other additions.

In the end Smash will always have picks that I wouldn’t have seen coming, and I feel that it is worth to let Smash introduce me to the series of said characters as I did with Terry.
 

Rie Sonomura

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Actually, a large point in favor of Doomguy is Sakurai mentioning John Carmack as "the father of the modern FPS genre" in his interview with Normura when discussing prominent game developers born in 1986.

There's also the fact that Bethesda and Nintendo have been buddy-buddy recently similar to Microsoft and Nintendo, and Bethesda had apparently spoken with Nintendo about Smash at some point before September 2018, which just so happens to be around the time negotiations for Fighters Pass #1 were being held.

Maybe it's unlikely, but it's far from impossible. This definitely isn't a Gardevoir/Gothitelle level leak situation though.
Oh lord you had to remind me of the Gardevoir/Gothitelle “leak”... that had more holes in it than Swiss cheese

Anyway a thought. What if the negotiation was for a Doom Slayer/Bethesda Mii Costume? Since Doom is significantly less popular in Japan than the West, maybe that’s all they could have settled for? Maybe in that case Hines’s “Oh yeah” wouldn’t break NDA because a Mii Costume isn’t as big of a deal as a playable character?
 

Untouch

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According to Google Trends, DOOM is (a little) more popular than Crash in Japan* ^^.
Google Trends is a measure of popularity, although this isn't enough and that comparison criteria aren't always fair. It can't be completely representative.

In the World
Minecraft > Overwatch > Final Fantasy > Halo > Sonic / Resident Evil > Assassin's Creed > Pac-Man > Dragon Quest > Monster Hunter > Souls > UNDERTALE / Kingdom Hearts > DOOM > Metal Gear > Street Fighter > Megaman / Tomb Raider > Tekken > SimCity > Digimon > The King of Fighters > Tales of > Persona / Devil May Cry / Yo-kai Watch > Harvest Moon > Crash Bandicoot > Bomberman > Tamagotchi > Castlevania > Rayman > Ninja Gaiden > Professor Layton / Ace Attorney > Project Zero > Ōkami > Bayonetta > Puyo Puyo > Shovel Knight > Banjo-Kazooie > No More Heroes > Virtua Fighter > Ganbare Goemon / Shantae > Babylonian Castle Saga.

In Japan
Dragon Quest
> Monster Hunter > Yo-kai Watch > Minecraft > Final Fantasy > Tales of > Resident Evil > Metal Gear / Persona > Kingdom Hearts > Megaman / Tekken > Puyo Puyo > Overwatch > Tamagotchi > Ace Attorney > Devil May Cry > Street Fighter > Harvest Moon / Digimon > Project Zero > UNDERTALE > Assassin's Creed > The King of Fighters > SimCity > Bayonetta / Professor Layton > Sonic > Ōkami > Bomberman > Castlevania > Souls > Halo > Pac-Man > Tomb Raider > Virtua Fighter / DOOM > Ninja Gaiden > Crash Bandicoot > Ganbare Goemon > No More Heroes > Shantae > Rayman > Shovel Knight > Banjo-Kazooie > Babylonian Castle Saga.
With how high AC is in both Japan and the World, it's weird people are sleeping on Ezio.
I think he's going to come out of nowhere and blindside everyone honestly.
 

GoodGrief741

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According to Google Trends, DOOM is (a little) more popular than Crash in Japan* ^^.
Google Trends is a measure of popularity, although this isn't enough and that comparison criteria aren't always fair. It can't be completely representative.

In the World
Minecraft > Overwatch > Final Fantasy > Halo > Sonic / Resident Evil > Assassin's Creed > Pac-Man > Dragon Quest > Monster Hunter > Souls > UNDERTALE / Kingdom Hearts > DOOM > Metal Gear > Street Fighter > Megaman / Tomb Raider > Tekken > SimCity > Digimon > The King of Fighters > Tales of > Persona / Devil May Cry / Yo-kai Watch > Harvest Moon > Crash Bandicoot > Bomberman > Tamagotchi > Castlevania > Rayman > Ninja Gaiden > Professor Layton / Ace Attorney > Project Zero > Ōkami > Bayonetta > Puyo Puyo > Shovel Knight > Banjo-Kazooie > No More Heroes > Virtua Fighter > Ganbare Goemon / Shantae > Babylonian Castle Saga.

In Japan
Dragon Quest
> Monster Hunter > Yo-kai Watch > Minecraft > Final Fantasy > Tales of > Resident Evil > Metal Gear / Persona > Kingdom Hearts > Megaman / Tekken > Puyo Puyo > Overwatch > Tamagotchi > Ace Attorney > Devil May Cry > Street Fighter > Harvest Moon / Digimon > Project Zero > UNDERTALE > Assassin's Creed > The King of Fighters > SimCity > Bayonetta / Professor Layton > Sonic > Ōkami > Bomberman > Castlevania > Souls > Halo > Pac-Man > Tomb Raider > Virtua Fighter / DOOM > Ninja Gaiden > Crash Bandicoot > Ganbare Goemon > No More Heroes > Shantae > Rayman > Shovel Knight > Banjo-Kazooie > Babylonian Castle Saga.
And this is why you shouldn't use Google Trends to measure popularity.
 

DaybreakHorizon

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As far as Western characters go, I think people seriously underrate Lara Croft's chances. She's enduringly and internationally popular, she would represent Core/Eidos, and Square-Enix owns her. And we haven't gotten any ladies yet. Could totally happen.
Why exactly do people think we're obligated to receive a female character, or that female characters are more likely the longer we go without them?

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for representation, but I don't think Sakurai and Nintendo think to themselves, "man, we haven't added any female characters for a while, so we should probably add a female character for the sake of adding a female character."

Sm4sh's DLC consisted of 1.5 women out of 7 fighters (I'm counting Corrin as a half since they have both male and female costumes BIG BROTHER IS NOW BIG SISTER). I really don't think the gender of a character is taken into account when weighing the pros and cons of a character's inclusion.
 

osby

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Right now I am just keeping my hopes up about Crash Bandicoot getting in while at the same time letting myself be open towards any other additions.

In the end Smash will always have picks that I wouldn’t have seen coming, and I feel that it is worth to let Smash introduce me to the series of said characters as I did with Terry.
That's a very postive attitude to have.

Meanwhile, half of the fandom label every character they didn't know for 20 years as niche shock values.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Yeah while some people here seem to doubt Doomguy to some extent, many people around Discord including myself have found a good number of stuff that makes his addition seem pretty likely, without getting close to a lock.

As some have said, Sakurai has shared in the past a lot of positive talk regarding his creator in the past, Bethesda alongside Activision have also been pushing the Switch since day 1 by releasing almost a big part of their stuff on the system, represents a videogame genre which does actually lack a strong presence in Smash so far and would be a strong hitter for DLC. That alongside other many points that make one think “Doomguy does indeed feel possible”.

I think that if we get more western reps while taking into consideration big surprises, two who seem strongly possible at equal terms are Doomguy and Crash Bandicoot. Doh they are still far for locks and shouldn’t be considered as picks who are undoubtly happening.
 

IceKitsune

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I love the heck out of Doom but honestly I don't really want Doomguy in Smash. I would much rather have him in Mortal Kombat. I completely understand his obvious iconicness and we do have Bayo so its not like his M rating excludes him I just feel like he doesn't really fit this game at all. If you want a classic PC character why not go for Commander Keen or Jazz Jackrabbit or Guybrush Threepwood or Sam & Max etc. There is more than just Doom Guy for Classic Iconic PC characters.
 

NoOtherPersona

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That's a very postive attitude to have.

Meanwhile, half of the fandom label every character they didn't know for 20 years as niche shock values.
What your telling me a character from a game I've never heard of made it in welp that's a wasted slot
 
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RileyXY1

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I love the heck out of Doom but honestly I don't really want Doomguy in Smash. I would much rather have him in Mortal Kombat. I completely understand his obvious iconicness and we do have Bayo so its not like his M rating excludes him I just feel like he doesn't really fit this game at all. If you want a classic PC character why not go for Commander Keen or Jazz Jackrabbit or Guybrush Threepwood or Sam & Max etc. There is more than just Doom Guy for Classic Iconic PC characters.
Except Doomguy (and the Doom franchise itself) is far more recognizable than any of those franchises.
 

DX_E

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As far as Western characters go, I think people seriously underrate Lara Croft's chances. She's enduringly and internationally popular, she would represent Core/Eidos, and Square-Enix owns her. And we haven't gotten any ladies yet. Could totally happen.
I concur. Lara makes a tonne of sense. It's weird, she's one of those characters that just gets swept to the sidelines despite the fact that she's been a huge influence in videogames and media in general. In some aspects she's like Terry Bogard. Terry is the face of SNK and Fatal Fury but hardly anyone mentioned or considered him before the leaks. I think she's got a chance and is worth considering.
 

merchantofsalt

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Why exactly do people think we're obligated to receive a female character, or that female characters are more likely the longer we go without them?
That's not what I meant; it's just that I am personally rooting for a female character. I'm kinda tired of anime boys.
 

Pinguino21v

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I'll paste what I copied from another thread.

I just came back on the different polls.


As first party, things to note:

- in Japan, Rex and BWD are on top. Both have less, but still strong, support in the west.
- in west, Isaac is strong. Like Rex and BWD but reversed, he is still recognized by Japan, but at a lower place.
- Geno (I'll count him as first party) has more support in West than in Japan, but in one case, it was reversed. In my personal opinion, he is still a niche: outside of Smash hardcore fans, nobody talks about him.
- Paper Mario, Dixie, Ashley and Skull Kid have some supports everywhere. However, for Paper Mario and Skull Kid, it seems it was mostly a bandwagon because we don't see them anymore nowadays.
- Magolor is a Japan only thing
- Waluigi is not in these polls but probably because we was already known as a trophy. He may be anywhere in term of raw support.

As of third party, it's way more dividing, except for a few characters :

- Sora and Steve are really strong in Japan, and quite strong in the west
- Crash is liked everywhere
- the Hunter, Lloyd, Phoenix are known by everyone but lower in the polls
- Spyro, Rayman, Doomguy, Amateratsu and Shantae are quite strong in the west, but nowhere to be seen in Japan
- 2B is strong in Japan, but not in the west
- other current discussed characters like Ryu Hayabusa, Heihachi, Dante, Resident Evil or Master chief are low or non existant in these polls, both in Japan and the west.

Like I said, and people on the internet often forget that but Sakurai is slightly biased toward Japan. It happened we got characters known in Japan but unknown in the west, the opposite didn't happened. However, it happened we got characters more liked by the west than Japan (Little Mac, Ridley, B&K), but they were all still known in Japan.

In my opinion, characters mostly unknown in Japan are out. That would be the case for several western third parties (Rayman, Master chief, Shantae, Spyro, Doomguy, Blizzard char, and so on), even if Nintendo is in good terms with Ubisoft and Bethesda for example.

The top contender, still IMO, as third parties are Sora, Steve, Crash in the top 3, the Hunter, Lloyd and Phoenix are slighty lower. Ryu Hayabusa have a lot of traction nowadays but it's mostly based on rumors; he doesn't seem to be that wanted. Doomguy is also discussed a lot thanks to Bethesda being friend with Nintendo but Japan doesn't seem to want him, I don't see him coming. A Resident Evil character could come, but other characters seems to have better support from the same company.

As first parties, it's hard to tell. Like I said, Paper Mario and Skull Kid were a bandwagon: let's remove them. What remains is Rex, Waluigi, BWD, Isaac, Geno in any order, and slightly lower is Ashley.

Hard to tell what's coming and what's not coming. My personal feeling is that the 5th of the pass will be one of the third party I listed, minus Sora (since Hero is already here, but he could come in the future however).
 

DaybreakHorizon

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And this is why you shouldn't use Google Trends to measure popularity.
And why exactly is that?
That's not what I meant; it's just that I am personally rooting for a female character. I'm kinda tired of anime boys.
Then your wording is what's important.
I'll paste what I copied from another thread.

I just came back on the different polls.


As first party, things to note:

- in Japan, Rex and BWD are on top. Both have less, but still strong, support in the west.
- in west, Isaac is strong. Like Rex and BWD but reversed, he is still recognized by Japan, but at a lower place.
- Geno (I'll count him as first party) has more support in West than in Japan, but in one case, it was reversed. In my personal opinion, he is still a niche: outside of Smash hardcore fans, nobody talks about him.
- Paper Mario, Dixie, Ashley and Skull Kid have some supports everywhere. However, for Paper Mario and Skull Kid, it seems it was mostly a bandwagon because we don't see them anymore nowadays.
- Magolor is a Japan only thing
- Waluigi is not in these polls but probably because we was already known as a trophy. He may be anywhere in term of raw support.

As of third party, it's way more dividing, except for a few characters :

- Sora and Steve are really strong in Japan, and quite strong in the west
- Crash is liked everywhere
- the Hunter, Lloyd, Phoenix are known by everyone but lower in the polls
- Spyro, Rayman, Doomguy, Amateratsu and Shantae are quite strong in the west, but nowhere to be seen in Japan
- 2B is strong in Japan, but not in the west
- other current discussed characters like Ryu Hayabusa, Heihachi, Dante, Resident Evil or Master chief are low or non existant in these polls, both in Japan and the west.

Like I said, and people on the internet often forget that but Sakurai is slightly biased toward Japan. It happened we got characters known in Japan but unknown in the west, the opposite didn't happened. However, it happened we got characters more liked by the west than Japan (Little Mac, Ridley, B&K), but they were all still known in Japan.

In my opinion, characters mostly unknown in Japan are out. That would be the case for several western third parties (Rayman, Master chief, Shantae, Spyro, Doomguy, Blizzard char, and so on), even if Nintendo is in good terms with Ubisoft and Bethesda for example.

The top contender, still IMO, as third parties are Sora, Steve, Crash in the top 3, the Hunter, Lloyd and Phoenix are slighty lower. Ryu Hayabusa have a lot of traction nowadays but it's mostly based on rumors; he doesn't seem to be that wanted. Doomguy is also discussed a lot thanks to Bethesda being friend with Nintendo but Japan doesn't seem to want him, I don't see him coming. A Resident Evil character could come, but other characters seems to have better support from the same company.

As first parties, it's hard to tell. Like I said, Paper Mario and Skull Kid were a bandwagon: let's remove them. What remains is Rex, Waluigi, BWD, Isaac, Geno in any order, and slightly lower is Ashley.

Hard to tell what's coming and what's not coming. My personal feeling is that the 5th of the pass will be one of the third party I listed, minus Sora (since Hero is already here, but he could come in the future however).
I honestly think Sora has a chance, but it's incredibly small. He's more of a Disney character than a Square character, so it's possible.
 
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RuffyYoshi

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Hey guys, I got a Twitter campaign going on if you're interested, details are below. ^^

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AmphabulouSnake

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I love the heck out of Doom but honestly I don't really want Doomguy in Smash. I would much rather have him in Mortal Kombat. I completely understand his obvious iconicness and we do have Bayo so its not like his M rating excludes him I just feel like he doesn't really fit this game at all. If you want a classic PC character why not go for Commander Keen or Jazz Jackrabbit or Guybrush Threepwood or Sam & Max etc. There is more than just Doom Guy for Classic Iconic PC characters.
Let's be real here.....Doom Slayer would be either way too OP for Mortal Kombat or just not him at all.
The main thing about Doom isn't the gore, it's the FAST PACED GAMEPLAY
You're always moving fast with the Slayer, and with a fighting game as cramped AND as slow as MK, I don't feel he fits in better than in Smash, literally the celebration of gaming as a whole.
Even Id Software expressed this in one of their interview I think (the one at Quakecon), where they even mentionned Smash Bros
So IMO Doom Slayer should be the first FPS character + could very well be the next fighter due to certain evidences popping up :)
I'm not saying he's a lock, but he'd just be awesome and leave a huge impact for the end of the fighters pass
 
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IceKitsune

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Except Doomguy (and the Doom franchise itself) is far more recognizable than any of those franchises.
I think this thread over rates the need for recognizably when it comes to character picks, especially American recognizably. I don't think it's as important as this thread thinks it is.
 
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I love the heck out of Doom but honestly I don't really want Doomguy in Smash. I would much rather have him in Mortal Kombat. I completely understand his obvious iconicness and we do have Bayo so its not like his M rating excludes him I just feel like he doesn't really fit this game at all.
Call me crazy, but I would actually prefer to see Doomguy in Tekken than MK.
 

Nquoid

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And why exactly is that
It's useful on a small scale, but these kind of large scale searches its inherent flaws start to become apparent. Such as "do people google things if they know it?" or something with a very passionate small fan base can throw off results.

It's definitely handy, and I've used it, but its certainly not a metric to base that kind of speculation off of.
 

TCT~Phantom

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According to Google Trends, DOOM is (a little) more popular than Crash in Japan* ^^.
Google Trends is a measure of popularity, although this isn't enough and that comparison criteria aren't always fair. It can't be completely representative.

In the World
Minecraft > Overwatch > Final Fantasy > Halo > Sonic / Resident Evil > Assassin's Creed > Pac-Man > Dragon Quest > Monster Hunter > Souls > UNDERTALE / Kingdom Hearts > DOOM > Metal Gear > Street Fighter > Megaman / Tomb Raider > Tekken > SimCity > Digimon > The King of Fighters > Tales of > Persona / Devil May Cry / Yo-kai Watch > Harvest Moon > Crash Bandicoot > Bomberman > Tamagotchi > Castlevania > Rayman > Ninja Gaiden > Professor Layton / Ace Attorney > Project Zero > Ōkami > Bayonetta > Puyo Puyo > Shovel Knight > Banjo-Kazooie > No More Heroes > Virtua Fighter > Ganbare Goemon / Shantae > Babylonian Castle Saga.

In Japan
Dragon Quest
> Monster Hunter > Yo-kai Watch > Minecraft > Final Fantasy > Tales of > Resident Evil > Metal Gear / Persona > Kingdom Hearts > Megaman / Tekken > Puyo Puyo > Overwatch > Tamagotchi > Ace Attorney > Devil May Cry > Street Fighter > Harvest Moon / Digimon > Project Zero > UNDERTALE > Assassin's Creed > The King of Fighters > SimCity > Bayonetta / Professor Layton > Sonic > Ōkami > Bomberman > Castlevania > Souls > Halo > Pac-Man > Tomb Raider > Virtua Fighter / DOOM > Ninja Gaiden > Crash Bandicoot > Ganbare Goemon > No More Heroes > Shantae > Rayman > Shovel Knight > Banjo-Kazooie > Babylonian Castle Saga.
Google Trends is a poor method of gauging popularity. All it gauges is how much something was searched for on Google. Few problems with this. For starters, Google is not the only search engine. I personally run Ecosia since I like how they plant trees with their profits. However, the greatest hurdle that this has is it only relies on how often a franchise has been googled within a certain period of time. Doom might have gotten much more searches lately since it seems like every other leak the community latches onto has Doomguy in it. Also, in terms of pure sales in Japan Crash trounces Doomguy.

It's useful on a small scale, but these kind of large scale searches its inherent flaws start to become apparent. Such as "do people google things if they know it?" or something with a very passionate small fan base can throw off results.

It's definitely handy, and I've used it, but its certainly not a metric to base that kind of speculation off of.
Also this.

While a decent use, it is far from representative of pure demand.
 

osby

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I think this thread over rates the need for recognizably when it comes to character picks, especially American recognizably. I don't think it's as important as this thread thinks it is.
I don't think this thread even knows what't recognizable in America.

Both Persona and Dragon Quest sell well in US and have significant English-speaking fanbases, yet a lot of people here acted like they are Japan-only, obscure RPGs when they got into Smash.
 

NoOtherPersona

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I don't think this thread even knows what't recognizable in America.

Both Persona and Dragon Quest sell well in US and have significant English-speaking fanbases, yet a lot of people here acted like they are Japan-only, obscure RPGs when they got into Smash.
I've never played it so obviously it doesn't sell well
 
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