I'll paste what I copied from another thread.
I just came back on the different polls.
As first party, things to note:
- in Japan, Rex and BWD are on top. Both have less, but still strong, support in the west.
- in west, Isaac is strong. Like Rex and BWD but reversed, he is still recognized by Japan, but at a lower place.
- Geno (I'll count him as first party) has more support in West than in Japan, but in one case, it was reversed. In my personal opinion, he is still a niche: outside of Smash hardcore fans, nobody talks about him.
- Paper Mario, Dixie, Ashley and Skull Kid have some supports everywhere. However, for Paper Mario and Skull Kid, it seems it was mostly a bandwagon because we don't see them anymore nowadays.
- Magolor is a Japan only thing
- Waluigi is not in these polls but probably because we was already known as a trophy. He may be anywhere in term of raw support.
As of third party, it's way more dividing, except for a few characters :
- Sora and Steve are really strong in Japan, and quite strong in the west
- Crash is liked everywhere
- the Hunter, Lloyd, Phoenix are known by everyone but lower in the polls
- Spyro, Rayman, Doomguy, Amateratsu and Shantae are quite strong in the west, but nowhere to be seen in Japan
- 2B is strong in Japan, but not in the west
- other current discussed characters like Ryu Hayabusa, Heihachi, Dante, Resident Evil or Master chief are low or non existant in these polls, both in Japan and the west.
Like I said, and people on the internet often forget that but Sakurai is slightly biased toward Japan. It happened we got characters known in Japan but unknown in the west, the opposite didn't happened. However, it happened we got characters more liked by the west than Japan (Little Mac, Ridley, B&K), but they were all still known in Japan.
In my opinion, characters mostly unknown in Japan are out. That would be the case for several western third parties (Rayman, Master chief, Shantae, Spyro, Doomguy, Blizzard char, and so on), even if Nintendo is in good terms with Ubisoft and Bethesda for example.
The top contender, still IMO, as third parties are
Sora, Steve, Crash in the top 3,
the Hunter, Lloyd and Phoenix are slighty lower. Ryu Hayabusa have a lot of traction nowadays but it's mostly based on rumors; he doesn't seem to be that wanted. Doomguy is also discussed a lot thanks to Bethesda being friend with Nintendo but Japan doesn't seem to want him, I don't see him coming. A Resident Evil character could come, but other characters seems to have better support from the same company.
As first parties, it's hard to tell. Like I said, Paper Mario and Skull Kid were a bandwagon: let's remove them. What remains is
Rex, Waluigi, BWD, Isaac, Geno in any order, and slightly lower is Ashley.
Hard to tell what's coming and what's not coming. My personal feeling is that the 5th of the pass will be one of the third party I listed, minus Sora (since Hero is already here, but he could come in the future however).