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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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I.D.

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I know Xenosaga is Namco's but could the character KOS-MOS be still owned by Monolith? Would explain why the had such an easy time bringing her back everywhere, like how shes just another blade in XC2. If thats the case, I could see her having a spirit if XC2 gets a fighter instead.
No, they don't. Although they may have an special arrangement in place which would explain why they have such an easy time using Xenosaga content.
Her newest design in Xenoblade 2 however is co-owned between Bamco and Nintendo/Monolith as strange as that sounds.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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I know Xenosaga is Namco's but could the character KOS-MOS be still owned by Monolith? Would explain why the had such an easy time bringing her back everywhere, like how shes just another blade in XC2. If thats the case, I could see her having a spirit if XC2 gets a fighter instead.
Eeeeeeeeeh I think the way that would work is that while KOS-MOS is in house, her IP is not, so they still have to pay to use her in anything. Likely the reason why Geno never saw use, even in SquareEnix titles.
 

Wunderwaft

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I know Xenosaga is Namco's but could the character KOS-MOS be still owned by Monolith? Would explain why the had such an easy time bringing her back everywhere, like how shes just another blade in XC2. If thats the case, I could see her having a spirit if XC2 gets a fighter instead.
KOS-MOS isn't owned by Monolith, she's fully owned by Namco. Monolith does however talk with Namco and negotiate with bringing her into their own games and whatnot. Her situation is slightly similair to Geno except her other parent company gives a **** about her and they constantly try to bring her back in games.
 

GoodGrief741

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Super late but Subspace Emissary is the best adventure mode because it has Lucas and Pokemon Trainer as best friends, ROB as a tragic villain and Dedede as the mastermind who predicted the whole plot. I live for wild **** like that.

I know Xenosaga is Namco's but could the character KOS-MOS be still owned by Monolith? Would explain why the had such an easy time bringing her back everywhere, like how shes just another blade in XC2. If thats the case, I could see her having a spirit if XC2 gets a fighter instead.



Its like how no one was talking about Ryu before the smash 4 dlc even though its such a big character.
KOS-MOS is owned by Bandai Namco, they're even credited in Xenoblade 2.

The reason they had no problem with getting her is probably because it's not like Bandai Namco is using her for anything.
 

TheTuninator

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Really, as the local essay post writer, I really do think the strongest first indicator for any character is...well, timing.

We have some ideas (some not confirmed) about when they characters were picked, which, the broken record that I am, indicates that this pass has a possibility of being planned to follow up Fighter Pass 1. If that’s the case, for me, it brings a few other things into question.

If Rex was going to be a fighter, why make a costume of him an incentive to purchase the pass? Like I do get it...if you get the pass you get a free costume of a popular character. But I really do have to wonder if we’re gonna see Rex. Honestly, my thought is...no. I’m starting to think we won’t.

Overall, referring to “timing” likely won’t tell us who is coming, but could tell us who isn’t. There’s been a variety of bits of information that could contribute to that. For example, Piranha Plant not having a spirit, Three Houses holding off on a spirit event, etc...each kind of indicating that there were reasons for holding off on particular things.

As most folks appear to agree, anything that is paid content post-launch will probably not double dip as playable. For example, if they have you purchase a Mii Fighter, could they have you pay for the fighter? I mean, sure. That’d just be kinda...weird, in my humble opinion. Why spend dev time on Mii costumes AND the fighter?

I think one thing to remember is that DLC has always ended on an “underwhelming” pick by fan standards, so for now I’m going to assume CP11 is gonna be somebody that people get mad at either way, first or third party. The only thing that makes me reconsider is that this is most likely the “last” Smash character for...awhile. So you never know, but I wouldn’t be anything more than cautiously optimistic.

My guess? Smaller character next, big E3 pick, and wild card final pick. Identities? Who knows?
Something very important to keep in mind is that "underwhelming" as applied to Fighter Pass 1's end specifically only works within the context of roster speculation communities. I wouldn't call Byleth at all "underwhelming" to the broader Smash community, as FE3H was wildly popular and, for many, their first Fire Emblem game (Awakening is 7 years old now, and Fates is 4 - how time flies!) By a lot of standards Byleth is actually a big and hype pick to cap a pass off with.
 

I.D.

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The reason they had no problem with getting her is probably because it's not like Bandai Namco is using her for anything.
You say that but Square isn't using Xenogears for anything either and the best they can get from them is recolors :laugh: and by get from them I mean making recolors that reference Xenogears characters but obviously don't break copyright
 

Scoliosis Jones

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It's always interesting to look at:
  • Iirc, the previous game's base roster didn't get anyone up in arms because there technically wasn't a "final reveal"; the last few characters were leaked before their trailers hit.
  • Bayonetta was controversial. I remember most of the talks about her were centered around her being too adult for the game.
  • Ken and Incineroar were also leaked, but this time it worked against them, with the red herring raising people's expectations too high.
  • Byleth was something the community actively didn't want.
I don't think the last character will necessarily be inherently disappointing, but we've likely seen the last of the heavy hitters, and at best will have another for E3. A best case scenario would probably be a double reveal at E3 with CP10 being the "underwhelming" pick, and CP11 being that E3 heavy hitter, but that's a bit of a longshot.


I guess that's the other side of the coin. There's no evidence to support this. In fact, precedence probably goes against this, but all things considered, the chances of the final character being a "screw the rules" fan favorite pick as a thank you for those who stuck with the series as we close the book on its first chapter is still not 0.

Would they do this? Aside from Bayonetta being the ballot winner with a huge asterisk, it doesn't really match up with anything they've done so far, and yet...

It feels like a pretty dangerous thought, but if that Geno costume doesn't return, or if it turns out the Golden Sun revival is actually happening, or if it turns out Nintendo has listened to the whole Waluigi debacle...I dunno, there might be more to it than straight up wishful thinking.
I think the thing of it is...is that the expectations were propped up by certain context.

Bayonetta was divisive, but mainly that was because she wasn't Ridley- folks had themselves convinced it'd be Ridley or K.Rool based on popularity. But it was a mix of popularity and available assets. What's funny about that one in particular is that those same Ballot efforts led to Ultimate, which gave us all these characters and more.

Then you have Kencineroar, which was a whole mess. Box Theory going against Grinch Leak (what a time to be alive), folks expecting a big blowout of highly requested picks, etc. Granted, this was backed by leaks, and I was one of a handful of people who knew it was only those 2.

Then you've got Byleth. Folks expecting a big 3rd party to close out of the pass with rumors of Dante swirling (though to be honest I didn't buy into those rumors and I'm a Dante stan).

Overall it all comes down to expectations. If we go in thinking pick 6 won't be this major 3rd party or fan request, it'll either be a surprise of epic proportions, or it'll fit those expectations just fine.

I'm sure things will get crazy around Pick 10 and 11 though. I think it's unavoidable.
 
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Scoliosis Jones

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Something very important to keep in mind is that "underwhelming" as applied to Fighter Pass 1's end specifically only works within the context of roster speculation communities. I wouldn't call Byleth at all "underwhelming" to the broader Smash community, as FE3H was wildly popular and, for many, their first Fire Emblem game (Awakening is 7 years old now, and Fates is 4 - how time flies!) By a lot of standards Byleth is actually a big and hype pick to cap a pass off with.
I myself like Byleth and Three Houses, so I agree that Byleth wasn't underwhelming from my point of view. But I think the overall reaction was...not positive, and part of that was based on expectations from the fan base.
 

Louie G.

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It really feels like people say this about literally every reveal now
"Yeah we didn't actually see this coming but now that it's happened it was really obvious"
If some smash speculators are tired of accusations of getting blindsided... maybe they should try being more accurate lol
Maybe I'm missing something with this too, because I don't even think Sephiroth was obvious with hindsight.

Final Fantasy content was notoriously difficult to negotiate so it was furthest from people's minds when considering not just an additional SE character but a second original character for any third party (most people likely would have suggested Sonic get one first). The only precedent for new characters from already repped series thus far was Byleth, a character who at least brought brand new content from a game that had no presence in Smash. If this was going to happen, the logic was that it would be a Nintendo character who could promote something (or Geno).

Within SE, discussions were fixated much more on new franchises as that was where DLC priorities seemed to be, or Geno who had been a longstanding fan favorite like Banjo. And I think everyone was justified in focusing on these things and not Sephiroth, a character who again is from a series / game whose main character barely made it into the base roster to begin with, and was front and center on the chopping block for every "who is most likely to get cut in Smash 6" prediction.

There was no precedent for Sephiroth and I love it. He's a character I still can't make any sense of being here, but I'm not complaining and I'm not going to question it either. Keep stuff like this coming.
 
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TheTuninator

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I myself like Byleth and Three Houses, so I agree that Byleth wasn't underwhelming from my point of view. But I think the overall reaction was...not positive, and part of that was based on expectations from the fan base.
The overall reaction from where, though? We have no objective measure of the entire fanbase. Communities like this or even the people who comment in threads on Smash Reddit are a vanishingly small percentage of the overall Smash fanbase, which is tens of millions strong. That's my main point, really - all the reaction to a pick in these communities tells us about is these communities, not how successful/popular the DLC actually was. Fifty vocal haters in a community like this can make it seem like everyone's against something despite being a drop of water in the ocean of the entire fanbase.
 

AinsOoalGown

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Monolith developed her games but Bandai Namco 100% owns her, she was in the Project X Zone games repping Namco, and her XC2 art has the Bandai Namco copyright on it
Thanks, (and thanks also for the other replies) never noticed the copyright. So they just have a very good relationship thats all. I do still wonder, would that be enough for a spirit (not a xenosaga spirit is what I mean, one that came with xenoblade)
 
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Louie G.

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The overall reaction from where, though? We have no objective measure of the entire fanbase. Communities like this or even the people who comment in threads on Smash Reddit are a vanishingly small percentage of the overall Smash fanbase, which is tens of millions strong. That's my main point, really - all the reaction to a pick in these communities tells us about is these communities, not how successful/popular the DLC actually was. Fifty vocal haters in a community like this can make it seem like everyone's against something despite being a drop of water in the ocean of the entire fanbase.
I mean, Byleth's near even like/dislike ratio on their presentation is unprecedented. That's never happened with any other character. If that isn't a proper measure of how polarizing they are then I'm not sure what is - it's a different situation than a few people being really really loud on a forum and pretending to speak for the whole community. Not to get into my own thoughts about Byleth, but it's clear that they were the poorest received character yet.

Not to say their DLC didn't do well, and not to say people don't enjoy playing as them. In fact they were dropped at a point where most people had already bought the pass, so I imagine they sold well even if they were truly despised (kind of a slimy move but I digress, I was gonna buy everyone anyway and I imagine that goes for most of you too).
 
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Wunderwaft

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The overall reaction from where, though? We have no objective measure of the entire fanbase. Communities like this or even the people who comment in threads on Smash Reddit are a vanishingly small percentage of the overall Smash fanbase, which is tens of millions strong. That's my main point, really - all the reaction to a pick in these communities tells us about is these communities, not how successful/popular the DLC actually was. Fifty vocal haters in a community like this can make it seem like everyone's against something despite being a drop of water in the ocean of the entire fanbase.
Their like/dislike ratio on the official youtube video is far more polarizing than any other character reveal. Say what you want about vocal haters or what not but no other character got a reception this mixed before.

1607885661820.png
 

PacificFun

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Their like/dislike ratio on the official youtube video is far more polarizing than any other character reveal. Say what you want about vocal haters or what not but no other character got a reception this mixed before.

View attachment 295396
Just look at the Nintendo Store NY Crowd reaction. When you can actually hear the trailer audio, you know something has gone terribly wrong.
 

Arcanir

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I think the thing of it is...is that the expectations were propped up by expectations.

Bayonetta was divisive, but mainly that was because she wasn't Ridley- folks had themselves convinced it'd be Ridley or K.Rool based on popularity. But it was a mix of popularity and available assets. What's funny about that one in particular is that those same Ballot efforts led to Ultimate, which gave us all these characters and more.

Then you have Kencineroar, which was a whole mess. Box Theory going against Grinch Leak (what a time to be alive), folks expecting a big blowout of highly requested picks, etc. Granted, this was backed by leaks, and I was one of a handful of people who knew it was only those 2.

Then you've got Byleth. Folks expecting a big 3rd party to close out of the pass with rumors of Dante swirling (though to be honest I didn't buy into those rumors and I'm a Dante stan).

Overall it all comes down to expectations. If we go in thinking pick 6 won't be this major 3rd party or fan request, it'll either be a surprise of epic proportions, or it'll fit those expectations just fine.

I'm sure things will get crazy around Pick 10 and 11 though. I think it's unavoidable.
I'm nitpicking here, but Ridley wasn't really expected at the time Bayonetta was revealed. Not only was he a boss in Smash 4, he also had that interview released from the year before that shot him down even further, so many people felt he was a pipe dream character. Obviously he still had support as otherwise he wouldn't have gotten into Ultimate, but it wasn't vocal as most had kept quiet thanks to vitriol against the fanbase being at an all-time high.

Another thing about Bayonetta is that, not just for K. Rool fans, but in general many didn't accept her as a ballot winner. They didn't think it was possible for her to have done well when her presence on online polls were middling at best compared to other characters and she needed Nintendo to bail her franchise out. It also didn't help that she followed the very divisive Corrin, which made the backlash against her even worse since feelings were already negative going into her reveal.
 
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I.D.

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I mean, Byleth's near even like/dislike ratio on their presentation is unprecedented. That's never happened with any other character. If that isn't a proper measure of how polarizing they are then I'm not sure what is - it's a different situation than a few people being really really loud on a forum and pretending to speak for the whole community. Not to get into my own thoughts about Byleth, but it's clear that they were the poorest received character yet.
Yeah I remember the day of the stream the massive amount of dislikes flooding in as he was revealed. The stream itself (at least the one I was watching) ended with more dislikes than likes, it wasn't until after the fact that likes started to slightly outnumber dislikes. Come on, even here people jokingly predicted Byleth as a worst case scenario, and even among FE stans I remember a lot more support for Edelgard/Dimitri.
 

7NATOR

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So the Seven Squares leak might Conclude it's Saga on Thursday

There were seven characters in it

Geno
Sora
Erdrick
Luminary
Slime
Chrono
Sephiroth

-Erdrick, Luminary, and Sephiroth are all Playable.

-Slime is apart of the background, and is a Mii Hat (he was also an Option if Hero did not pan out

-Sora has been rumored or heard to have been considered and tried to be gotten, but it did not Pan out

-Very Good Chance that Geno's Costume returns in some form

That just leaves Chrono as the Outlier. It's possible though that we might get a Chrono Costume in Sephiroths Wave or such
 

Brother AJ

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The one thing that bugs me about Sephiroth is now it feels like we NEED to have Eggman. I didn't think 3rd party villains were happening, but now he's done gone and opened the door y'all. Honestly I feel like Eggman would've been the first added if it weren't for several other factors.

These being I believe Sakurai's fondness of FF in general, the cross promotional aspect with the FFVII Remake, and possibly the desire to get a proper amount of FF content that we didn't get the first time around.

EDIT: Well, at least Eggman is a legendary spirit I suppose.
 
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Rie Sonomura

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Can we get a Trauma Center rep? Joker in Smash is one step closer to us getting this song into Smash:

I see you're a person of culture as well

tfw not these songs tho:

now if u'll excuse me imma go make a Trauma Center support thread
 

SNEKeater

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crazy idea:

you know how FF7 didn't get an AT in base while it's fellow Smash 4 debut third parties, Street Fighter and Bayonetta, did?

What if Sephiroth comes with the first ever DLC AT: Aerith?

i mean Cloud has a new FS that he'll only use against Sephiroth so why not go that extra mile
A week ago I'd have said that you're a madman for believing that a DLC character would bring a new AT with him/her

But after Cloud getting a new FS with Sephiroth, while it's true that adding a new AT would probably be more work than a FS, I don't think it's impossible

Though I'd rather have Tifa as an assist. But Aerith would probably be more fun, I guess, because of you-know-what

Also, for Aerith's spirit battle
I'm the only one who's expecting her spirit battle to be a match with time limit where Zelda (because she is clearly the one Sakurai has chosen so far to rep Aerith) is running away from Sephiroth, which is trying to kill her? That would be hilarious

Then you've got Byleth. Folks expecting a big 3rd party to close out of the pass with rumors of Dante swirling (though to be honest I didn't buy into those rumors and I'm a Dante stan).
To be honest I'd never understand why people ever thought Dante was going to be the fifth fighter. The only "evidence" for that was the infamous date, which granted, was the same day as CP5's reveal, but the DMC news was always going to be about the new features of the DMC3 Switch version. Nothing more.

Obviously, a lot of people started to think "what if it is Dante?" but I saw a lot of people just suggesting it because of the funny coincidence, not being like "OMG it's Dante for sure!!!"
I myself entertained the idea a few times, but it clearly was just a coincidence.

Anyone who really believed it was Dante just fell into the hype, or wasn't really well informed about the situation. For example, Maximillian Dood seemed to really believe it was Dante, when the evidence for that was almost 0. There never was a strong leak or a credible leaker saying anything about Dante at the time as well.

I guess it was a situation of a snowball efect.
 
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PacificFun

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The one thing that bugs me about Sephiroth is now it feels like we NEED to have Eggman. I didn't think 3rd party villains were happening, but now he's done gone and opened the door y'all. Honestly I feel like Eggman would've been the first added if it weren't for several other factors.

These being I believe Sakurai's fondness of FF in general, the cross promotional aspect with the FFVII Remake, and possibly the desire to get a proper amount of FF content that we didn't get the first time around.
I really feel like Cloud was held hostage for Smash unless they put Sephiroth in. It would explain the complete lack of FF content at launch. Because they wanted to hold off on the DLC.
 
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SKX31

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crazy idea:

you know how FF7 didn't get an AT in base while it's fellow Smash 4 debut third parties, Street Fighter and Bayonetta, did?

What if Sephiroth comes with the first ever DLC AT: Aerith?

i mean Cloud has a new FS that he'll only use against Sephiroth so why not go that extra mile
Aerith was a special DLC assist in Dissidia, so... honestly, can't rule out the possibility entirely.

Something very important to keep in mind is that "underwhelming" as applied to Fighter Pass 1's end specifically only works within the context of roster speculation communities. I wouldn't call Byleth at all "underwhelming" to the broader Smash community, as FE3H was wildly popular and, for many, their first Fire Emblem game (Awakening is 7 years old now, and Fates is 4 - how time flies!) By a lot of standards Byleth is actually a big and hype pick to cap a pass off with.
TBF, Byleth did have the 88K+ dislikes on YouTube, so the dislike was more widespread than just amongst speculators. Robin didn't entirely dispel the "anime swordsman" notion, and the reaction to Corrin was... well... yeah. Not helped by the fact that Corrin's gameplay became primarily associated with The Pin and The Counter That (used to) One-Shot (in certain situations). That's oversimplifying Corrin's moveset massively, but a lot of people who weren't dedicated Corrin mains like Cosmos really got that impression and held onto it.

Chrom is kinda an exception due to being an echo, but he was not that well-recieved before Ultimate's release IIRC.

Still, point is: the anti-FE sentiments was building up for a while before Byleth.
 
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Professor Pumpkaboo

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Just look at the Nintendo Store NY Crowd reaction. When you can actually hear the trailer audio, you know something has gone terribly wrong.
Pretty sure people in there cheered. Not sure why thats used as a gotcha. Just because a bunch.of other people didnt like him, doesnt mean that one person didnt either
 
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Wunderwaft

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The one thing that bugs me about Sephiroth is now it feels like we NEED to have Eggman. I didn't think 3rd party villains were happening, but now he's done gone and opened the door y'all. Honestly I feel like Eggman would've been the first added if it weren't for several other factors.

These being I believe Sakurai's fondness of FF in general, the cross promotional aspect with the FFVII Remake, and possibly the desire to get a proper amount of FF content that we didn't get the first time around.
I think there are a couple of things lining up for Eggman, there's the Sonic movie that released earlier this year and there's the supposed hugely planned 30th anniversary of Sonic being planned next year. It's no guarantee by any means but in terms of timing the good doctor has some things that benefit him to be chosen.
 

Guynamednelson

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I think this Nelson fellow is getting themselves a bit confused; I'm pretty sure we're agreeing with the points we're trying to make; namely that a lot of the "frontrunners" are relatively boring and uninteresting. (YMMV of course, to whoever might be reading this, I'm not trying to start anything.)
To me I really think it's how the frontrunners are so dominant that's boring. Back in the days before the first FP and even Ultimate, the frontrunners of the time had a decent amount of competition in speculation. Nowadays the only way to compete with the likes of Crash and Gen 8 is to have a new game announced, a leak, or in the case of Eggman a similar character joining the roster, and that only lasts a few days.
but he was not that well-recieved before Ultimate's release IIRC.
There were complaints that he was more FE, but not as much due to how many other things were announced, and Chrom joining for reasons other than "his game's the newest".
 

Scoliosis Jones

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It's anecdotal but I will say that basically any friend of mine who has played Smash, but does not follow Smash at the level that I do, is tired of Fire Emblem and thinks it's crazy that it has so many characters.

So my hunch is, it's not just hardcore Smash fans that want stuff aside from Fire Emblem.
 
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7NATOR

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Also Something I have to ask

Will we get a Newcomer Trailer where it's based of the True ending of the game, meaning Both Galeem and Dharkon Show up? I wonder how they work around Galeem being dead, but considering we getting more World of Light lore despite the mode already having 3 Conclusions in base game, Perhaps they could wave that off as alternate reality
 

Momotsuki

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Y'know, a couple people here were having their little cage match super slam yesterday and I was thinking about it a little while in the shower so I may as well chip in. Now, KOS-MOS is currently a crucial piece of the Reimu puzzle, so I may just be confirmation-biasing all over here, but hear me out.

Somebody was going on about how KOS-MOS' own games underperformed commercially and such, and another person's rebuttal to that was that KOS-MOS, the character was still a major seller in merchandise and seemed to be very marketable. So then it had me thinking.

DLC choices, case-by-case, are probably largely a matter of "will people buy this character?". If a specific character is seemingly so marketable and also happens to originate from a video game, that may be a greater factor than how her own games did. Calling KOS-MOS a lock is a bit ridiculous but - uh, I think she might be a little more than a "speculation darling" despite initially not being sure what made her anything more than that. Thanks to one of those two people involved in that discussion for convincing me - I was watching~! They were the civil one in the argument, too. :p
 
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pupNapoleon

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Eeeeeeeeeh I think the way that would work is that while KOS-MOS is in house, her IP is not, so they still have to pay to use her in anything. Likely the reason why Geno never saw use, even in SquareEnix titles.
It could also be possible that Nintendo just doesn't have interest in using either of them. It's not as if they don't drop dozens of other characters and titles.
Y'know, a couple people here were having their little cage match super slam yesterday and I was thinking about it a little while in the shower so I may as well chip in. Now, KOS-MOS is currently a crucial piece of the Reimu puzzle, so I may just be confirmation-biasing all over here, but hear me out.

Somebody was going on about how KOS-MOS' own games underperformed commercially and such, and another person's rebuttal to that was that KOS-MOS, the character was still a major seller in merchandise and seemed to be very marketable. So then it had me thinking.

DLC choices, case-by-case, are probably largely a matter of "will people buy this character?". If a specific character is seemingly so marketable and also happens to originate from a video game, that may be a greater factor than how her own games did. Calling KOS-MOS a lock is a bit ridiculous but - uh, I think she might be a little more than a "speculation darling" despite initially not being sure what made her anything more than that. Thanks to one of those two people involved in that discussion for convincing me - I was watching~! They were the civil one in the argument, too. :p
I am not sure what underperformed means- but considering we have 8 FE characters and not one game has passed 3million in sales, I'm going to say this is likely inaccurate.

There are a lot of ways Nintendo can make money from a product- I think I listed 5 a few posts ago (though I'm sure there are more).
Company relationship
Growing the series
Selling the game
Selling the system
Base sales for the character

Either way- there is likely more to it.
 
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PacificFun

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It doesn't help that Byleth (at least in my opinion) had just a bad reveal all-around. It had lackluster visuals, a bad meta joke, bad pacing and was over four minutes long. Add that the character looked kind of "basic" and you got yourself an odd mix.

At least "Byleth recruits Byleth" is so freaking dumb, its hilarious.
 

Rie Sonomura

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Also Something I have to ask

Will we get a Newcomer Trailer where it's based of the True ending of the game, meaning Both Galeem and Dharkon Show up? I wonder how they work around Galeem being dead, but considering we getting more World of Light lore despite the mode already having 3 Conclusions in base game, Perhaps they could wave that off as alternate reality
I hope so, and maybe for variety's sake make it not a Square Enix character this time
 
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