Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[GoodGrief741]

. . .Because people were loudly wondering about their exclusions? There were plenty of people who predicated/requested characters from both games for base roster, so it makes sense to explain why they weren't included. Still doesn't mean that they were considered.

I think it's a bit disingenuous to presume that that's the reason they were commented on. Tons of characters were heavily speculated upon and requested for base roster as well, and Sakurai didn't see the need to give explanations for them, let alone an apology. Especially given how they both happen to be from recent successful Nintendo games, yes, it seems likely that Sakurai's comments are an admission that he would have added them had timing worked out for them. This in no way means they had work put into them, of course, but I disagree with the idea that it means nothing for Rex's chances. An official apology from Sakurai was in no way required and he gave it anyway, so PR talk it ain't.

 

[Shroob]

Also, if I were a betting man, here's the potential amiibo dates I'd look out for:

• February 12th, 2021: 3D World Launch
• March 26th, 2021: Possible Switch Pro Launch

imo, I think March 26th would make the most sense because it would probably be a repeat of September 20th, 2019. With it being a Nintendo launch day of sorts.

March

I dunno if this community will survive another 6 months

 

[volbound1700]

Well, Travis getting deconfirmed is a bummer, but at least we can be sure of a few things:

1. Cacomallow is 100% dead. It's delusional to think otherwise. And no, a 5 year NEGOTIATION process coupled with a programming nightmare of a character is not an indication of the survivability of the maximum 6 month efforts that are Mii costumes. It's dead.
2. Mii costume guy has also been discredited as there was no Joanna Dark. We're not getting another Microsoft rep, so that's that.
3. There will not be another character in time for the Mario tournament. This either means it was always irrelevant, or we're not getting a Mario character in the already decided-upon pass.

Now to look toward the future and figure out the more murky stuff. For one, there are now an uneven number of missing Mii costumes, but an even number of remaining fighters. This could mean any number of things. We could be getting two in one or more presentations as was the case with the Megaman and Sonic costumes and one in the remaining assuming none get upgraded. The fact Lloyd is now the sole Namco costume does bug me. We've had two mii costume massacres in a row with a Namco character where the fighter was not from Namco. The way I see it, that could mean a few things. Lloyd is seen as specifically a Tales character in the way Hero was specifically Dragon Quest rather than the associated companies, meaning he'll either be upgraded and come with his own Tales costumes, or the reverse and he'll get costume'd while we get someone like Yuri or Alphen as a fighter. The other possibility is we just don't get another Namco character and his costume is revealed whenever.

Capcom and SQEX have two missing costumes each. We can't really determine a precedent for either unless we want to go back to Smash 4 when rules could have been different. There's no way to determine if this means we're definitely getting a character from both/either or we aren't. And that's assuming there won't be at least one costume that just doesn't return (and not because they got upgraded to playable).

Man, I'm already hoping we get an FP8 reveal soon just so we can figure out what it means for the future of speculation.

I humbly disagree with most of this post (not trying to be mean). Here are my thoughts:

CacoMallow is not dead yet. I would say it is unlikely to happen but not dead. Why did it take so long to get Gil who was in Smash 4? Where is the Geno Mii costume? It seems like Nintendo is content to hold off on some Mii costumes as has been show with how they handled the returning costumes.

Mario characters could still happen. Sakurai rarely shows any pattern with his reveals. This is one of the few reveals that has lined up with an actual event (the Minecraft Live event). Traditionally, character reveals have NOT lined up with any anniversary or events, even when it was convenient to do so.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I finally realized why Steve's techroll animation kept standing out to me. It's pretty much this meme

God, how the **** did Sakurai not only make Steve a playable character but make the ****** such a ****ing cryptid

 

[Shroob]

I humbly disagree with most of this post (not trying to be mean). Here are my thoughts:

CacoMallow is not dead yet. I would say it is unlikely to happen but not dead. Why did it take so long to get Gil who was in Smash 4? Where is the Geno Mii costume? It seems like Nintendo is content to hold off on some Mii costumes as has been show with how they handled the returning costumes.

Mario characters could still happen. Sakurai rarely shows any pattern with his reveals. This is one of the few reveals that has lined up with an actual event (the Minecraft Live event). Traditionally, character reveals have NOT lined up with any anniversary or events, even when it was convenient to do so.

We're never going to be free of this damn leak are we?

 

[I.D.]

Uh-huh. And of course your interpretation of that interview is entirely assumption free.

My interpretation is similar to most people's interpretation. Your interpretation involves ascribing to Sakurai an intention that simply doesn't appear in the interview.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

View attachment 288231

We're never going to be free of this damn leak are we?

It's the opposite of a leak, it's a plumber about to burst into tears begging to go home while the home owner insists there's a leak in the sink plumbing

 

[P.Kat]

Ok, so you mean to tell me:

Insane, this character is completely insane. Also, poor Charizard, poor Pit, and especially poor Meta Knight...

Heyo

Ya want a really ****ed theory?


Multi weapons theory


Go

Amaterasu, got this covered.

 

[volbound1700]

View attachment 288231

We're never going to be free of this damn leak are we?

Not until someone disproves it unfortunately. This hasn't been done yet.

The one consistent with Sakurai is that there isn't any consistency. It seems like he keeps randomizing and surprising people. I think it is probably to help avoid Leaks. Based on past actions and comments, Sakurai hates leaks and tries to do what he can to avoid them.

 

[I.D.]

Not until someone disproves it unfortunately. This hasn't been done yet.

Nobody has disproved Grinch either.

 

[N3ON]

View attachment 288231

We're never going to be free of this damn leak are we?

As long as a leak hasn't been conclusively debunked, someone will believe it.

 

[Blargg888]

Ok, so you mean to tell me:
View attachment 288228
Insane, this character is completely insane. Also, poor Charizard, poor Pit, and especially poor Meta Knight...
View attachment 288230

Amaterasu, got this covered.

It probably won't be as completely broken as Brawl's glide mechanic though. For one, you can't do it perpetually, like you could in Brawl. And from what I can tell, there doesn't seem to be a "Glide attack" like the Brawl characters had, so Steve is totally vulnerable white using the attack.

 

[Guynamednelson]

They'd probably represent classic and modern Ninja Gaiden alike in the challenger pack, and use the classic games as a loophole so it's not Super Smash Bros. X Ryu Hayabusa.

In fact, Nintendo might be performing such loopholes already:

Nakoruru's costume is presented as being a crossover with Samurai Shodown, using the logo from the first, T-rated game and not the recent, M-rated one.

 

[Faso115]

Grinch is totally legit guys.

Cacomallow is fake for the sake of everyone's mental health

 

[Shroob]

Not until someone disproves it unfortunately. This hasn't been done yet.

The one consistent with Sakurai is that there isn't any consistency. It seems like he keeps randomizing and surprising people. I think it is probably to help avoid Leaks. Based on past actions and comments, Sakurai hates leaks and tries to do what he can to avoid them.

Thing is, I don't think anyone really cares to disprove it, the modding community seems pretty content in their efforts right now, there's only 1 group really keeping it alive, when pretty much everyone else has thrown it in the trash.


Come like, what, next month, the leak will be a year old, and then whenever CP8 drops sometime early next year, and it doesn't have Mallow or Cacodemon, we still won't be allowed to throw it away because the next time, and the next time, and the next time, and the----

 

[Goombaic]

From what it looks like, it does seem like Bomberman's proportions were minimally changed, but otherwise the model and textures appear to be the exact same.

Spoiler: Comparison

I think this will be the only time an assist trophy's model will be reused for a Mii costume, unless they make a Moon mask or Metroid hat.

Spoiler: I don't think Shovel Knight would quite work.

Shovel Knight's already been suggested but I think they'd make new models instead of reusing the assist trophy because he's not shaped like a Mii.

Spoiler: The only other possible Mii costume in my opinion.

Sukapon is limbless and could easy have their body parts reproportioned for a Mii costume, but I don't think we'll see them as one. It's possible, but not likely in my eyes.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Not until someone disproves it unfortunately. This hasn't been done yet.

The one consistent with Sakurai is that there isn't any consistency. It seems like he keeps randomizing and surprising people. I think it is probably to help avoid Leaks. Based on past actions and comments, Sakurai hates leaks and tries to do what he can to avoid them.

It's been disproven countless times. ****, I even found something that nobody's capable of giving a counterargument of, the debug timer in the modded video doesn't match up with the actual debug mode timer

 

[Shroob]

In fact, Nintendo might be performing such loopholes already:

Nakoruru's costume is presented as being a crossover with Samurai Shodown, using the logo from the first, T-rated game and not the recent, M-rated one.

.....oh that's actually really interesting.

 

[Schnee117]

View attachment 288231

We're never going to be free of this damn leak are we?

What is dead may never die

 

[Animegamingnerd]

I humbly disagree with most of this post (not trying to be mean). Here are my thoughts:

CacoMallow is not dead yet. I would say it is unlikely to happen but not dead. Why did it take so long to get Gil who was in Smash 4? Where is the Geno Mii costume? It seems like Nintendo is content to hold off on some Mii costumes as has been show with how they handled the returning costumes.

Mario characters could still happen. Sakurai rarely shows any pattern with his reveals. This is one of the few reveals that has lined up with an actual event (the Minecraft Live event). Traditionally, character reveals have NOT lined up with any anniversary or events, even when it was convenient to do so.

Oh my god. The ****ing thing is a year old, 4 characters have been released/revealed since, none of the footage has been taken down by Nintendo, modders have already proven its possible to make quality looking Mii costumes. CacoMallow has been shot, died slowly and painfully and tossed into a ditch. Just let it go people, it aint ****ing happening. At this point only a fool that believed in things like chair theory or Isaac was the cause of the September 2018 direct delay still believes in CacoMallow.

View attachment 288231

We're never going to be free of this damn leak are we?

I hope whoever made that leak is laughing their ass off each time they see someone believe in it, its what this fandom deserves.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

It's been disproven countless times. ****, I even found something that nobody's capable of giving a counterargument of, the debug timer in the modded video doesn't match up with the actual debug mode timer

Yeah, everyone conveniently forgets that bit, even though it's the most obvious thing.

 

[Cosmic77]

CacoMallow is not dead yet. I would say it is unlikely to happen but not dead. Why did it take so long to get Gil who was in Smash 4? Where is the Geno Mii costume? It seems like Nintendo is content to hold off on some Mii costumes as has been show with how they handled the returning costumes.

Regardless, it's been almost a full year since CacoMallow. Maybe they made the Mii costumes in advance, but it seems awfully convenient that nothing from the leak has been revealed yet despite the costumes appearing to be complete.

As for existing Mii costumes, they've been trickling out since F1. "Why is (insert character) missing?" could be answered by the next character bundle when they'll more than likely release yet another missing DLC costume

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Oh my god. The ****ing thing is a year old, 4 characters have been released/revealed since, none of the footage has been taken down by Nintendo, modders have already proven its possible to make quality looking Mii costumes. CacoMallow has been shot, died slowly and painfully and tossed into a ditch. Just let it go people, it aint ****ing happening. At this point only a fool that believed in things like chair theory or Isaac was the cause of the September 2018 direct delay still believes in CacoMallow.

Hello, 911? I’d like to report a murder

cause this dude SLAYED ‘EM

 

[Icedragonadam]

People are still bringing up the Cacomallow rumor.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

CacoMallow is so old that Nintendo could have taken down the footage countless times, track the leaker down to fire them and then sue them and win said law suite in court.

 

[I.D.]

Regardless, it's been almost a full year since CacoMallow. Maybe they made the Mii costumes in advance, but it seems awfully convenient that nothing from the leak has been revealed yet despite the costumes appearing to be complete.

As for existing Mii costumes, they've been trickling out since F1. "Why is (insert character) missing?" could be answered by the next character bundle when they'll more than likely release yet another missing DLC costume

Yeah, it was really, really bad luck on the leaker's part that he happened to choose 2 mii hats that wouldn't be revealed until 2021 instead of literally any other piece of content we've gotten since then. What are the odds, really?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Not until someone disproves it unfortunately. This hasn't been done yet

What the **** are you expecting, for Sakurai to come out and say "oh yeah that ****'s fake, I dunno how anyone believed it"? I could claim right now that Travis was actually worked on as a fighter and that I was hired to voice act him, unless we get Sakurai on the record calling me out that wouldn't get disproven either.

Stuff isn't real until proven fake, it's fake until proven real. That's how proof works.

 

[Shroob]

I swear to god if Cacomallow ends up being fake in the end, I'm going to write it's name on a piece of paper and light it on fire when it's all said and done.


This leak is just soo damn....draining, because you know no headway's going to be made in bringing it up again.... and again... and again... and again...

And if it's not here this character, then the next time... and then the next time... and then the next time...

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I truly hate to dig up this horse skeleton, but didn’t ol’ Vergeben mention hearing about Hyabusa coming to Smash last year? Given that we did end up getting Minecraft content after all... maybe his other misses might come true as well?

(Apologies if you all talked about this, I haven’t been on SB in a few weeks)

Then factor in the great relationship Nintendo has with Koemi.

 

[Cosmic77]

Honestly, I think a lot of people have the wrong narrative.

It's not, "Geno's still missing! That's a good sign!"
It's, "A costume returned with F6 and F7, so the trend continues. That's not a good sign."

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Whoo, finally caught up to this thread. It was a doozy.

 

[NotGenerico]

In fact, Nintendo might be performing such loopholes already:

Nakoruru's costume is presented as being a crossover with Samurai Shodown, using the logo from the first, T-rated game and not the recent, M-rated one.

I might be wrong, but didn't this whole M-rated censorship begin during Byleth's presentation?

 

[Shroob]

In the deepest reaches of my heart, I can forgive the Grinch leak(Even though I was a purebred Box loyalist), because the Grinch lasted, what, less than a month?



I guess it IS October after all, because Cacomallow keeps coming back like a B-movie slasher villain who just won't stay dead.

 

[MooMew64]

Honestly, I think a lot of people have the wrong narrative.

It's not, "Geno's still missing! That's a good sign!"
It's, "A costume returned with F6 and F7, so the trend continues. That's not a good sign."

Coming from someone who isn't exactly super confident in his chances...


That doesn't mean Geno's will come back, IMO. There's definitely the possibility he makes it in and brings the Chocobo hat with him. It's kind of a moot point either way, honestly: He could come back as a Mii, or he could come back as a fighter. It's one of the reasons I don't think you can use the Mii costume as an indication of anything right now.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Not until someone disproves it unfortunately. This hasn't been done yet.

The one consistent with Sakurai is that there isn't any consistency. It seems like he keeps randomizing and surprising people. I think it is probably to help avoid Leaks. Based on past actions and comments, Sakurai hates leaks and tries to do what he can to avoid them.

What you are literally asking for is virtually impossible though. You're asking for people on the internet to specifically discover exactly where the video came from without a shadow of a doubt in order to be convinced that its fake. That's the problem, you and a bunch of other people who somehow still buy into this thing present it as relevant and thus the burden of proof should by accounts fall to you all. But you can't do that either because the only way to demonstrate it is real is to retroactively be validated via exact inclusion in Smash Ultimate itself, so you just kick the burden of proof in proving that it's fake to every one else. And no matter how much consistent evidence people have given as to why this doesn't make sense including reasonable doubt approximations for the brief week that this leak was relevant are enough because we cannot 100% prove it's fake TECHNICALLY. You automatically get a "win" because not one person who knows how to mod cares enough to engage with this anymore and they'll just get shot down the same way the few modders that demonstrated it was easily doable last year did.

Worse yet, it somehow gets revived because people hear that Minecraft was a deal that might have been 5 years in the making and somehow start making the logical jumps that it implies that content is produced well before hand when that's not at all the implication of this current scenario. A business deal of this caliber and the planning required takes way longer than production of that material. Which is not to discount the hard work Sakurai and his team put in, but just to point out the fact 3-5 years of planning and legal work =/= production...

 

[Animegamingnerd]

I can't tell if CacoMallow is the best or worst fake leak in Smash history.

One hand it has tricked so many idiots into believing its real.

On the other hand its annoying too so many people fall for such a fake leak despite all of the overwhelming evidence against it and yet claim to say there it has been disproven.

**** this ****, since the Fall Anime season just started, I am gonna watch the first episodes of Jujustu Kaisen and Tonikawa while you all continue to debate this.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

So, change of pace:

How in the world is Steve going to work on custom stages?

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Wait guys! Travis isn't dead! They used the Travis Strikes back costume! Maybe they're saving the real Travis for later, maybe?

Travis isn't Travis without his Red jacket so that has to mean he's in the Fighters Pass at some point! Right! They didn't use the Red Jacket!

HE'S ALIVE!

 

[Eldrake]

I'mma use everyone's favorite bespectabled scientist for this:

Yup, that's right. Gordon Freeman.

Crowbar? Check.

Hornet Gun / Hivehand? Yes.

Snarks? Of course.

Hopper Mines? Gotcha.

RPG? Yup.

Gravity Gun? You bet.

Fits extremely neatly with this theory, so of course he's a lock.

My theoretical concept moveset for Gordon actually uses multiple weapons in mind, with the ability to swap from weapon to weapon and the ability to strafe while shooting with the drawback that they're all limited by ammo. I thought it'd make perfect sense for a first person shooter-based fighter.

Edit: In fact, my moveset concept doesn't even seem that crazy now that Steve exists.

 

[I.D.]

No seriously, you'd think that creeper mii costume for example would be a really juicy, tempting costume to leak. He had space for a third mii too! I guess leakers work in mysterious ways...