We were only expecting Ken and Incineroar because they, y'know, LEAKED. Not to mention people were disappointed then as it meant a more 'desirable' leak was fake
Yeah people forget how that grinch leak got everyones hopes up. Did we ever discover who made that leak, because i still wanna see the HQ of that artwork made for it.
As for this pass, i think its safe to assume 1 or 2 characters will be first party and could be seen as promotional. I really think Rex and pyra still have a chance only because it seemed Sakurai really, REALLY wanted to put them in the game but couldn't. It could be viewed as a tie in for the remake of the first game, especially if they add a bonus fight vs rex and pyra, or pyra and mythra somehow. You know i am still not sure where timeline wise XB1 and 2 are....
The other promotion pick we may get can be a number of different things. People are expecting a pokemon and if we get 1 i would love Zacian, as she is a Quadrupedal pokemon and we have so few characters like that, and she could be super interesting with her playstyle. Other picks could be a prime 4 rep with Sylux, a paper mario rep with paper Mario, or even someone from the new zelda game.
The other 4 i think will be 3rd party. At least 2 will be spirit upgrades, Geno and shantae. Geno because of the fan demand, same with shantae but also because she is the biggest indie character avalible still save for reimu. I love reimu and want her in but her biggest hurdle is her recognition in the west. Its better then how people here rated her recently, but still in issue.
Crash i feel is a shoe in or very likely, due to his history woth nintendo and could make a huge splash.
The last one i dont know and can go anyway. My want would be Reimu. Other likely choices though are doomguy, ryu, a bandai rep, or rayman.