Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[RetroBro]

I feel like some people are getting their expectations way too high for Fighter Pass 2. In retrospect, most of FP1 was pretty obscure or at least niche in some way.

Joker is huge for Atlus because they know he's their cash cow until they come out with either Persona 6, that new Hashino project or SMTV becomes a million seller. But Atlus rarely has these successes; that's why they're licensed out so much. They capitalize on them while they can; Persona 4 was in this same position.
Terry and Hero aren't very big outside of their "sphere of influence" and their inclusion was made easier by their companies wanted to expand. You can see that Hero strained their budget despite this with DQ being the biggest brand in the Fighter Pass, while Terry was still super easy to include because of it because of SNK's relative obscurity.
Banjo is essentially retired and had both fan demand and company execs making it easier; if it was someone else heading Microsoft's Game department, or he was still a hot IP with million seller games or the fans were just that much quieter it wouldn't have happened.
Byleth is Byleth. He hadn't even sold a single game when they decided on him.

None of these characters are super huge outside of their sphere of influence. They're not Halo or Doom levels of huge. I think we could easily see a character from a series that's never had a million seller title. That's not to say they won't have a big name in the pass, that's absurd. But like Hero, they'll be the outlier and it'll show. Sakurai's the kind of person who'd enjoy both smaller series and triple A ones, while Nintendo has reasons to be interested in IPs of varying notoriety. And there's plenty of 'lesser' series that deserve exposure to a wider audience.

This is a huge pill for some people to swallow. Don't expect people to listen lol

 

[Cosmic77]

I feel like some people are getting their expectations way too high for Fighter Pass 2. In retrospect, most of FP1 was pretty obscure or at least niche in some way.

Joker is huge for Atlus because they know he's their cash cow until they come out with either Persona 6, that new Hashino project or SMTV becomes a million seller. But Atlus rarely has these successes; that's why they're licensed out so much. They capitalize on them while they can; Persona 4 was in this same position.
Terry and Hero aren't very big outside of their "sphere of influence" and their inclusion was made easier by their companies wanted to expand. You can see that Hero strained their budget despite this with DQ being the biggest brand in the Fighter Pass, while Terry was still super easy to include because of it because of SNK's relative obscurity.
Banjo is essentially retired and had both fan demand and company execs making it easier; if it was someone else heading Microsoft's Game department, or he was still a hot IP with million seller games or the fans were just that much quieter it wouldn't have happened.
Byleth is Byleth. He hadn't even sold a single game when they decided on him.

None of these characters are super huge outside of their sphere of influence. They're not Halo or Doom levels of huge. I think we could easily see a character from a series that's never had a million seller title. That's not to say they won't have a big name in the pass, that's absurd. But like Hero, they'll be the outlier and it'll show. Sakurai's the kind of person who'd enjoy both smaller series and triple A ones, while Nintendo has reasons to be interested in IPs of varying notoriety. And there's plenty of 'lesser' series that deserve exposure to a wider audience.

I agree with you, but I'm waiting for someone to wake up, read this post, and tell you a thousand and one reasons why Joker and Banjo are extremely iconic video game characters who are known by absolutely everyone. Also, Terry was super important to gaming history, and it's not like there are hundreds of other characters who can say the same thing.

 

[SuperSmashStephen]

I feel like some people are getting their expectations way too high for Fighter Pass 2. In retrospect, most of FP1 was pretty obscure or at least niche in some way.

Joker is huge for Atlus because they know he's their cash cow until they come out with either Persona 6, that new Hashino project or SMTV becomes a million seller. But Atlus rarely has these successes; that's why they're licensed out so much. They capitalize on them while they can; Persona 4 was in this same position.
Terry and Hero aren't very big outside of their "sphere of influence" and their inclusion was made easier by their companies wanting to expand. You can see that Hero strained their budget despite this with DQ being the biggest brand in the Fighter Pass, while Terry was still super easy to include because of it and SNK's relative obscurity.
Banjo is essentially retired and had both fan demand and company execs making it easier; if it was someone else heading Microsoft's Game department, or he was still a hot IP with million seller games or the fans were just that much quieter it wouldn't have happened.
Byleth is Byleth. He hadn't even sold a single game when they decided on him.

None of these characters are super huge outside of their sphere of influence. They're not Halo or Doom levels of huge. I think we could easily see a character from a series that's never had a million seller title. That's not to say they won't have a big name in the pass, that's absurd. But like Hero, they'll be the outlier and it'll show. Sakurai's the kind of person who'd enjoy both smaller series and triple A ones, while Nintendo has reasons to be interested in IPs of varying notoriety. And there's plenty of 'lesser' series that deserve exposure to a wider audience.

I agree with this so hard. No one expected a majority of these characters. Are there certain characters people are requesting or bringing up that made you make this post?

 

[Deleted member]

I feel like some people are getting their expectations way too high for Fighter Pass 2. In retrospect, most of FP1 was pretty obscure or at least niche in some way.

Joker is huge for Atlus because they know he's their cash cow until they come out with either Persona 6, that new Hashino project or SMTV becomes a million seller. But Atlus rarely has these successes; that's why they're licensed out so much. They capitalize on them while they can; Persona 4 was in this same position.
Terry and Hero aren't very big outside of their "sphere of influence" and their inclusion was made easier by their companies wanting to expand. You can see that Hero strained their budget despite this with DQ being the biggest brand in the Fighter Pass, while Terry was still super easy to include because of it and SNK's relative obscurity.
Banjo is essentially retired and had both fan demand and company execs making it easier; if it was someone else heading Microsoft's Game department, or he was still a hot IP with million seller games or the fans were just that much quieter it wouldn't have happened.
Byleth is Byleth. He hadn't even sold a single game when they decided on him.

None of these characters are super huge outside of their sphere of influence. They're not Halo or Doom levels of huge. I think we could easily see a character from a series that's never had a million seller title. That's not to say they won't have a big name in the pass, that's absurd. But like Hero, they'll be the outlier and it'll show. Sakurai's the kind of person who'd enjoy both smaller series and triple A ones, while Nintendo has reasons to be interested in IPs of varying notoriety. And there's plenty of 'lesser' series that deserve exposure to a wider audience.

I want to argue that Hero's sphere is incredibly large in Japan, but Japan itself is not that large when compared to the rest of the world, so you're right. In retrospect, all characters added were pretty niche and Byleth was simply the newest Fire Emblem character (thank God it was a great game).

 

[PSIGuy]

I agree with this so hard. No one expected a majority of these characters. Are there certain characters people are requesting or bringing up that made you make this post?

Mostly upcoming Switch game protags (Travis Touchdown and SMTV's unnamed protagonist), since Byleth shows they're willing to throw Smash money at a game that isn't out when they start planning. Which led me to think about how in general Smash is influenced heavily by when Sakurai starts planning. A lot of inclusions are "the right time" rather than "the right choice", as Pat puts it. If Smash's dev cycle was offset by a year or even a month from what it usually is, you'd see... half as many FE characters and quadruple as many Xenoblade ones, or something. It was the right time for Banjo and Terry and Joker and so-on. Of course these characters have their own merits (even Byleth). But timing gets their foot in the door, and their merits open it up.

 

[Dutch Raikuna]

None of these characters are super huge outside of their sphere of influence. They're not Halo or Doom levels of huge. I think we could easily see a character from a series that's never had a million seller title. That's not to say they won't have a big name in the pass, that's absurd. But like Hero, they'll be the outlier and it'll show. Sakurai's the kind of person who'd enjoy both smaller series and triple A ones, while Nintendo has reasons to be interested in IPs of varying notoriety. And there's plenty of 'lesser' series that deserve exposure to a wider audience.

That's why for my bet I think we will see someone who is a smaller developer on the same or less scale than SNK here.
It's why I'm placing my chips for Arc System Works or Falcom to get a rep in FP2. They are the perfect size, have a few series that both could get a good boost of featuring in it like Blazblue and Trails etc.
As for others....... who knows?

 

[SKX31]

I feel like some people are getting their expectations way too high for Fighter Pass 2. In retrospect, most of FP1 was pretty obscure or at least niche in some way.

Joker is huge for Atlus because they know he's their cash cow until they come out with either Persona 6, that new Hashino project or SMTV becomes a million seller. But Atlus rarely has these successes; that's why they're licensed out so much. They capitalize on them while they can; Persona 4 was in this same position.
Terry and Hero aren't very big outside of their "sphere of influence" and their inclusion was made easier by their companies wanted to expand. You can see that Hero strained their budget despite this with DQ being the biggest brand in the Fighter Pass, while Terry was still super easy to include because of it because of SNK's relative obscurity.
Banjo is essentially retired and had both fan demand and company execs making it easier; if it was someone else heading Microsoft's Game department, or he was still a hot IP with million seller games or the fans were just that much quieter it wouldn't have happened.
Byleth is Byleth. He hadn't even sold a single game when they decided on him.

None of these characters are super huge outside of their sphere of influence. They're not Halo or Doom levels of huge. I think we could easily see a character from a series that's never had a million seller title. That's not to say they won't have a big name in the pass, that's absurd. But like Hero, they'll be the outlier and it'll show. Sakurai's the kind of person who'd enjoy both smaller series and triple A ones, while Nintendo has reasons to be interested in IPs of varying notoriety. And there's plenty of 'lesser' series that deserve exposure to a wider audience.

I do agree largely with this, but if I be nitpicky:

A lot of recent SNK projects (and KOF stuff) have been mobile and / or China focused (even exclusive), meaning a lot of people elsewhere have not been even exposed to them at all. I say so because KOF got a Chinese-produced Anime (Destiny, link to first episode here), a mobile game with a MOBA mode (because following trends) and visual novels like - I kid you not this is the actual name - "King of Fighters for Girls". You know, part of me thinks anything else would be a better title, but at least they're being honest. Considering Terry and the other guys are Husbandos in that game (just as the KOF girls have been Waifus in previous SNK VNs and Heroines).

I don't blame you or anyone else for missing those, since they are largely confined to their own field. Still, it's worth remembering that SNK has been silently active. And that Terry has quite a bit of influence outside of his "sphere"... in countries where he and his series are big. Like China that is.

That's why for my bet I think we will see someone who is smaller developer on the same or less scale than SNK here.
It's why I'm placing my chips for Arc System Works or Falcom to get a rep in FP2. They are the perfect size, have a few series that both could get a good boost of featuring in it like Blazblue and Trails.
As for others....... who knows?

I could certainly see Marvelous - specifically Story of Seasons / Harvest Moon - getting in. Been close to Nintendo for a long time, got quite a bit of support from its developers and is low-key influential in a big way (Story of Seasons inspired the Chinese mobile game Happy Farm. Happy Farm, in turn, inspired FarmVille).

So yeah, realistic dark horse there.

 

[Deleted member]

I agree with this so hard. No one expected a majority of these characters. Are there certain characters people are requesting or bringing up that made you make this post?

It's probably something he noticed and warned other about.

 

[Herocin]

Chief is much more gaming icon than Doom Slayer like how Cloud is much more famous gaming icon than DQ's Hero. People are still debating on whether to go with Doom Slayer or Doomguy. Chief never suffered from such case.


You bring Japan argument against Chief, but why not Doom Slayer?

I am not bringing up any Japan argument. All I’m saying is Nintendo are a lot more likely going to attempt to get DoomSlayer than they are Chief. The only reason people think Chief has a shot nowadays is because he would be a good pack ender when Byleth proves that Nintendo don’t care. Using banjo as a point doesn’t really count due to the fact that he is a dead character who people were requesting to join. Microsoft weren’t doing anything with him aside from the occasional merchandising so he was up for the taking. Chief literally is the face of a rival console who is as relevant as ever. I find it really unlikely that Nintendo are going to try to get a rival console mascot in smash. I can see Crash joining because he isn’t actually owned by Sony despite being associated with it. When it comes to Chief I feel people only decide to look on one side of the fence instead of looking at why he is unlikely too just because they want this massive triple a gaming mascot in smash and decide to view it as likely without looking down all avenues

 

[PSIGuy]

I don't blame you or anyone else for missing those, since they are largely confined to their own field. Still, it's worth remembering that SNK has been silently active. And that Terry has quite a bit of influence outside of his "sphere"... in countries where he and his series are big. Like China that is.

I actually did know of King of Fighters for Girls thanks to Twitter, but not the other projects. So Terry as a pick for the Chinese market (whenever they release Smash over there) does give him more credibility.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I would just say that Fighter Pass 1 didn’t happen in a vacuum, and I don’t entirely agree that just because some of those characters didn’t come from “huge companies”, that larger characters or companies are out of the question.

I just think people should keep an open mind and be aware that popularity doesn’t dictate everything. Gameplay opportunities, as well as relationship building matter too!

 

[Michael the Spikester]

>everyone bummed thinking we're waiting 'til E3
>implying we can't have a Smash Direct dedicated solely to revealing the next character like we just did with Byleth

But

"Its gonna take some time for FP6 to come" - Sakurai

 

[Droodle]

But

"Its gonna take some time for FP6 to come" - Sakurai

First reveal December 2021 confirmed?!?!

I think it's happening guys.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

ah yes, Dragon Quest, a franchise synonymous with gaming in Japan, and a cultural phenomenon there to the point where merch is everywhere and it even spawned an urban legend regrading game releases in japan, is totally obscure

really flashing our westerner smarts today, huh?

 

[Aerospherology]

I actually did know of King of Fighters for Girls thanks to Twitter, but not the other projects. So Terry as a pick for the Chinese market (whenever they release Smash over there) does give him more credibility.

Wasn't Terry in trailers/commercials for it in China?

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I feel like some people are getting their expectations way too high for Fighter Pass 2. In retrospect, most of FP1 was pretty obscure or at least niche in some way.

Joker is huge for Atlus because they know he's their cash cow until they come out with either Persona 6, that new Hashino project or SMTV becomes a million seller. But Atlus rarely has these successes; that's why they're licensed out so much. They capitalize on them while they can; Persona 4 was in this same position.
Terry and Hero aren't very big outside of their "sphere of influence" and their inclusion was made easier by their companies wanting to expand. You can see that Hero strained their budget despite this with DQ being the biggest brand in the Fighter Pass, while Terry was still super easy to include because of it and SNK's relative obscurity.
Banjo is essentially retired and had both fan demand and company execs making it easier; if it was someone else heading Microsoft's Game department, or he was still a hot IP with million seller games or the fans were just that much quieter it wouldn't have happened.
Byleth is Byleth. He hadn't even sold a single game when they decided on him.

None of these characters are super huge outside of their sphere of influence. They're not Halo or Doom levels of huge. I think we could easily see a character from a series that's never had a million seller title. That's not to say they won't have a big name in the pass, that's absurd. But like Hero, they'll be the outlier and it'll show. Sakurai's the kind of person who'd enjoy both smaller series and triple A ones, while Nintendo has reasons to be interested in IPs of varying notoriety. And there's plenty of 'lesser' series that deserve exposure to a wider audience.

The first Fighter's Pass was only niche if you consider niche at its most baseline biology definition of the "space an organism (in this instance, that would translate to a series/character) inhabits."

• Why is bringing up the fact that Atlus rarely has huge successes relevant to Joker's inclusion? It's Atlus' biggest release ever that has continued to show impressive legs and turned Persona into a far more mainstream franchise that has garnered tons of very public attention. If you pay attention to gaming media at all, Persona 5 was a big part of the 2017 news cycle to the point of multiple GOTY nominations. It's a niche well beyond Atlus fans themselves and has absolutely been the "breakthrough" moment for Atlus as a company. Joker's a bigger deal than people think specifically its timed with his rise in stardom and this overall moment for Atlus.
• This is the same tired excuse we saw trotted out prior to Hero's announcement for Dragon Quest. For god's sakes people, Dragon Quest is not some niche series just because it didn't sell 10s of millions in the West. First off, Dragon Quest has had several multi million sellers in the West and continues to have a very consistent fan base in the west... but more importantly, Dragon Quest is the third highest selling third party IP with a playable character in Smash behind Final Fantasy and Sonic. "Sphere of influence" be damned, this series is huge and I'm so tired of people trying to force it into whatever box fits their own ideologies behind things. Japan is the bloody sphere people should be looking at any way since Sakurai has reiterated, time and time again, that his focus is on the Japanese market. Halo/Doom are literally in the same situation, just reversed in regards to where they're popular.
• Fatal Fury and King of Fighters have had a massive influence on fighters alongside Street Fighter and more importantly, they directly influenced the creation of Smash Bros. That's more than some "standard legacy" that can be applied widely across the board as a couple of individuals want to argue is true of a ton of video game characters.

Even Three Houses or Banjo are pretty widely known, so I don't think trying to pull the "obscure" card works at all to be honest.

There's also absolutely nothing to indicate that "Hero strained their budget." We don't know anything about the budget other than Sakurai makes some jokes about it in regards to his small presentation style reveals. Hero took lots of effort in the way they conceived of him, but the same could be said of Terry, Joker, Banjo & Kazooie, or even Byleth just in terms of how they approached those characters, stages, and additional content.


Like, I agree, we're probably not going to just get the next 6 biggest game franchises in the world added to Smash outright with Volume 2... but trying to position the first Fighter's Pass as particularly obscure/niche just doesn't really work.

 

[TMNTSSB4]

I feel like some people are getting their expectations way too high for Fighter Pass 2. In retrospect, most of FP1 was pretty obscure or at least niche in some way.

Joker is huge for Atlus because they know he's their cash cow until they come out with either Persona 6, that new Hashino project or SMTV becomes a million seller. But Atlus rarely has these successes; that's why they're licensed out so much. They capitalize on them while they can; Persona 4 was in this same position.
Terry and Hero aren't very big outside of their "sphere of influence" and their inclusion was made easier by their companies wanting to expand. You can see that Hero strained their budget despite this with DQ being the biggest brand in the Fighter Pass, while Terry was still super easy to include because of it and SNK's relative obscurity.
Banjo is essentially retired and had both fan demand and company execs making it easier; if it was someone else heading Microsoft's Game department, or he was still a hot IP with million seller games or the fans were just that much quieter it wouldn't have happened.
Byleth is Byleth. He hadn't even sold a single game when they decided on him.

None of these characters are super huge outside of their sphere of influence. They're not Halo or Doom levels of huge. I think we could easily see a character from a series that's never had a million seller title. That's not to say they won't have a big name in the pass, that's absurd. But like Hero, they'll be the outlier and it'll show. Sakurai's the kind of person who'd enjoy both smaller series and triple A ones, while Nintendo has reasons to be interested in IPs of varying notoriety. And there's plenty of 'lesser' series that deserve exposure to a wider audience.

well damn...out here speaking the truth and ****

 

[Droodle]

The first Fighter's Pass was only niche if you consider niche at its most baseline biology definition of the "space an organism (in this instance, that would translate to a series/character) inhabits."

• Why is bringing up the fact that Atlus rarely has huge successes relevant to Joker's inclusion? It's Atlus' biggest release ever that has continued to show impressive legs and turned Persona into a far more mainstream franchise that has garnered tons of very public attention. If you pay attention to gaming media at all, Persona 5 was a big part of the 2017 news cycle to the point of multiple GOTY nominations. It's a niche well beyond Atlus fans themselves and has absolutely been the "breakthrough" moment for Atlus as a company. Joker's a bigger deal than people think specifically its timed with his rise in stardom and this overall moment for Atlus.
• This is the same tired excuse we saw trotted out prior to Hero's announcement for Dragon Quest. For god's sakes people, Dragon Quest is not some niche series just because it didn't sell 10s of millions in the West. First off, Dragon Quest has had several multi million sellers in the West and continues to have a very consistent fan base in the west... but more importantly, Dragon Quest is the third highest selling third party IP with a playable character in Smash behind Final Fantasy and Sonic. "Sphere of influence" be damned, this series is huge and I'm so tired of people trying to force it into whatever box fits their own ideologies behind things. Japan is the bloody sphere people should be looking at any way since Sakurai has reiterated, time and time again, that his focus is on the Japanese market. Halo/Doom are literally in the same situation, just reversed in regards to where they're popular.
• Fatal Fury and King of Fighters have had a massive influence on fighters alongside Street Fighter and more importantly, they directly influenced the creation of Smash Bros. That's more than some "standard legacy" that can be applied widely across the board as a couple of individuals want to argue is true of a ton of video game characters.

Even Three Houses or Banjo are pretty widely known, so I don't think trying to pull the "obscure" card works at all to be honest.

There's also absolutely nothing to indicate that "Hero strained their budget." We don't know anything about the budget other than Sakurai makes some jokes about it in regards to his small presentation style reveals. Hero took lots of effort in the way they conceived of him, but the same could be said of Terry, Joker, Banjo & Kazooie, or even Byleth just in terms of how they approached those characters, stages, and additional content.


Like, I agree, we're probably not going to just get the next 6 biggest game franchises in the world added to Smash outright with Volume 2... but trying to position the first Fighter's Pass as particularly obscure/niche just doesn't really work.

What is this "Dragon Quest" you speak of?

Is it a parody of Dragon Ball?

 

[Faso115]

Hey, a few pages ago people argued Crash Bandicoot wasn't that big so according to PSIGuy 's post, that means he is totally happening because he is a total unknown pick #FlawlessLogic

I also kinda expect something from Arcsys given the River City spirits. No way they would just be represented with a few PNGs right? I bet someone like Ragna or Sol or Goku is going to show up

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Also, if we wanna bring Smash 4 DLC into the equation. They literally brought Street Fighter and Final Fantasy back to back and you don't get bigger than that. I don't think people expecting a couple of heavy hitters is somehow getting their expectations too high.

Hell, if we stick to the Japanese side of gaming, there's only handful of really huge series sales and influence wise that haven't gotten into Smash in some form. Souls, Puyo Puyo, and Kingdom Hearts are the biggest series that originated in Japan missing from the game (I'm counting Tekken as in on the technicality of being in Pac-Man's taunt for the time being) and they all hover around 30 million in sales. We've literally touched upon everything else bigger already through their inclusion in Smash as playable, Spirits, Assist Trophies, or in other weird cameo roles.

The Western front opens up considerably more since that has been virtually untouched due to Sakurai's Japanese focus, but even with that in mind, we're still not talking about that many big franchises that make sense in Smash to begin with (GTA or COD for example are probably not getting Smash characters no matter what).

 

[LipeCau]

Since we are at the start of a DLC season going basically blind, I decide to write down my predictions. I was wondering what we actually know regarding the new DLC and ended up mixing with some of my ideas, but trying not to step away from the realms of possibility. That said, I think the predictions are *too* safe and even though there's reasoning, all of them happening would be kinda boring.

Geno
Let me get him out of the way first, since I may be a little biased regarding him.
If there's any precedent this game is setting is that the highly requested and doomed impossible characters from past smash are getting in. In Brawl, Snake and Sonic opened the gates but we still set fan rules to justify not having certain characters. Cloud in smash 4 blew everyone's mind and yet, we still said "dead franchises aren't getting in", "Sakurai said this about certain character" (more on that later) and other types of gate keeping. Well, here we are, not only *everyone is here*, but the "too big" Ridley and the impossible Banjo are also in. Geno is the one left. Yes, there are many characters now that are arguably more wanted such as Sora and I truly hope there's a spot for both, but if we're talking smash history and what we got so far, I'd say Geno is very likely.

Now, let's talk Spirits. Sure there are two SMRPG Spirits, one being Geno. Many believe this means we can't get an upgrade and I completely understand and agreed regarding the first fighter pass. But not only we have precedent in Smash 4 with Lucas getting an upgrade from trophy to character, ommiting spirits would be super strange. Think about it, imagine having all the kongs spirits and no Dixie spirit, that would basically be a spoiler. Also, as for logistics, some characters have multiple spirits, such as Link, who has his Fighter Spirit named "Link", but also has the Primary Spirits "Link (The Legend of Zelda)", "Link (A Link Between Worlds)" and "Link (Link's Awakening)". The fix is as easy as adding the name of the game in parenthesis to the existing spirits. That way, classic characters, specially First-party-ish, can get an easy upgrade from Spirits.
I personally think that the Geno spirit battle was very weird with him been represented by Sheik, we had a costume in the past game and Beware the Forest's Mushrooms is pretty iconic to have both left out.

Finally I want to talk about his possible Pack, even though Sakurai and his team are amazing, I don't think a SMRPG stage would be that popular, so I'll throw a little curve ball and say Geno will come with a HD version of Rainbow Road, along with a bunch of missing Mario Music (including Beware the Forest's Mushrooms, of course). As for Mii costumes, Gil and Chocobo could return here, along with a Mallow hat and 2 more (more on Cacomallow later).

Worst case scenario is that he's coming back as an upgraded costume with his track as a bonus. I honestly find it hard to believe we won't see anything related to him. I'd honestly be happy, I don't like how he's currently under represented.

Lloyd/Heihachi
Speaking of missing Mii costumes, those two are also weirdly gone. On the first pass I believed Heihachi was the most likely addition, but Terry kinda took the FGC spot. Namco is doing such a good job not only with Smash, but also Tekken and Soul Calibur, there's no reason to not throw them this bone.
I don't have much more to say on them, just that I think one of them will return as a character and the other as a costume.

Pokémon
Yes, I want to avoid forced patterns, but Byleth kinda showed us that there's is a weird tradition with newcomers. The other series to do that? Pokémon.
The thing is, I don't think it's a given that the new character is going to be from Sword and Shield. We have 2 generations not represented with characters and we may get a Gen 4 remake. So there are basically 2 opportunities to use this slot as marketing (SwSh DLC and Gen 4 remake).
As for whom, even though I said Spirits could be upgraded, Pokémon spirits are pretty weird.
Not all Poké Ball Pokémon have spirits and many background Pokémon are also spiritless (though this is not exclusive to this series).
As for who could it be? Well, the Pokémon company has favorites so it's hard to tell, the ones I think are plausible are Sceptile, Golurk, Rilaboom, Cinderace and Inteleon. But again, they could easily throw a Sirfetch'd or Mr. Rime because Pokémon Company.
The thing I personally think is missing, is the representation of Evolution in a fighter, DLC are great for those gimmicks.
Regarding the Stage, let's hope for the return of Poké Floats instead of a Pokémon Stadium 3.

Maybe Monster Hunter, Maybe Doomguy
We are also missing some Monster Hunter costumes and we don't really have anything Monster Hunter besides Rathalos, so there's plenty of space to fill. We did get all the Megaman costumes back and Byleth has a pretty monster hunter-esque moveset, so I'm not big on this one.

Cacomallow is the only thing we have *really* going for Doomguy and we don't even know if it's real. And yes, I'm ignoring the director, NDA exist. But I'm starting to see things a little different regarding Cacomallow and it's actually the possibility of Cacomallow *deconfirming* him.
Byleth came with a couple of Ubisoft costumes, Cacomallow shows Cacodemon and Mallow together. If they come in the same pack, Doomguy Costume and Cacodemon Hat could be the +2 in Geno's pack, or even the opposite, Geno and Mallow being the +2 in Doomguy pack.

Rex
This is another strange one. I went back to the first Pass announcement to see the exact phrasing because I wasn't sure Sakurai said he didn't make the cut at all or just this pass.
To my surprise, he said they didn't add Xenoblade Chronicles 2 characters because it was announced after planing had already started. Wtf Byleth? How early did Sakurai play Three Houses??
I don't know about Xenoblade, but I'm sure there are more spirits they could add, including Xenosaga, just like Terry had some SNK spirits on his board.

Crazy one
Ok, this is kinda cheating, but we do need a crazy pick to sell the Pass, someone equivalent to Joker. Even though everyone is high on Crash for whatever reason, I'd say the craziest we can go right now is Sora. Just like I said with Geno, all the rules and impossibilities aren't real in this game. If there's any chance of an amazing crossover happening, this is the time. So yeah, I'm placing Sora here.

And I'd like to end with a downer. Even though I said all those things about Spirits upgrading, I don't really believe in Assist Trophies upgrading. This was always the point of the AT, as stated in Brawl's Dojo website: "Assist Trophies allow you to enjoy even more characters who couldn’t quite make it as playable fighters."
So, yeah, I'm not at all against Waluigi, I'd actually love him as character, but I honestly think the community needs to understand that AT and cameos are a way to have their wanted characters in the game. I'd love Lyn and Bomberman playable, but I'm happy they are in another way.

TL;DR
This is my prediction in no particular order with the caveat that I think it's too boring and only some may happen:
Geno with Rainbow Road Stage;
Either Lloyd or Heihachi;
Pokémon (Sceptile, Golurk, Rilaboom, Cinderace or Inteleon)
Sora
Maybe Monster Hunter, Maybe Doomguy
Maybe Rex
No AT upgrades.

What I really want is to be mostly wrong and surprised (though I really want Geno and would love Doom music).

 

[Garteam]

Let's say that the Fighter's Pass also came with one assist trophy per pack. Who would you have picked as the five assist trophies? The only rules is that the character must not be someone already physically present during any stage or animation (spirits are fine though), and the assist trophy must originate from the same series as the pack's character.

Joker: Goro Akechi
Hero: Jessica Albert
Banjo: Klump
Terry: Krauser (still think it's kinda weird that there's no reference to him in Terry's pack, given how Fatal Fury 2 heavy it is)
Byleth: Lysithea

 

[Schnee117]

Everyone taking their ignorance pills today huh.

 

[Flyboy]

Let's say that the Fighter's Pass also came with one assist trophy per pack. Who would you have picked as the five assist trophies? The only rules is that the character must not be someone already physically present during any stage or animation (spirits are fine though), and the assist trophy must originate from the same series as the pack's character.

This is a fun one! But also tough considering a lot of my favorites are cameos already...

Joker: Either Jack Frost or Aigis (Persona 3). Jack Frost is a mascot, could use ice spells, etc. Aigis is one of my favorite characters and could dash about the stage shooting off bullets and helping in the fight.

Hero: I admit I'm not super familiar with DQ, and my first choice of Slime wouldn't work out, but what about Jade? She seems to be a pretty popular character, and I'm definitely looking forward to meeting her once I finally get around to DQ11.

Banjo-Kazooie: This one's tough since Mumbo is a cameo, but what about The Golden Goliath? He can follow you around slowly and kick enemies.

Terry: It's gotta be Rugal Bernstein, the vicious boss himself. Yeah, I'd prefer him to be a boss, but imagine a Guile-esque assist trophy hitting opponents with a Genocide Cutter if they get too close! And if you hit him enough times he turns into Omega Rugal and strikes back with an even more powerful attack! Alternatively, if we go for SNK as a whole, Marco & Fio inside the Metal Slug!

Byleth: Hmm, I'd go with a spoiler, but just so I don't go there it'd be nice to see Ferdinand von Aegir on his horse, or maybe even a generic Gambit Boost that sends an army across the stage, complete with an exploding barrel.

 

[AceAttorney9000]

Geno

I know that no character is ever truly a lock... but Geno becoming playable honestly feels like a case of when, not if. We already have Ridley, King K. Rool, and Banjo, three characters who were infamous for being considered "NEVER EVER"-type picks for previous games but have now become playable in Ultimate. I wouldn't be surprised if (whether it's Fighters Pass 2, a potential third one, or even as a standalone "bonus" DLC character) Sakurai eventually decides to knock out the last of the "Four Horsemen of the NEVER EVER-pocalypse" and make Geno playable.

Let's say that the Fighter's Pass also came with one assist trophy per pack. Who would you have picked as the five assist trophies? The only rules is that the character must not be someone already physically present during any stage or animation (spirits are fine though), and the assist trophy must originate from the same series as the pack's character.

1. Joker (Persona/Shin Megami Tensei) - Jack Frost
2. Hero (Dragon Quest) - Dragonlord
3. Banjo & Kazooie (Banjo-Kazooie) - Lord of Games
4. Terry (Fatal Fury / The King of Fighters / SNK) - Haohmaru
5. Byleth (Fire Emblem) - Sothe

 

[Droodle]

I know that no character is ever truly a lock... but Geno becoming playable honestly feels like a case of when, not if. We already have Ridley, King K. Rool, and Banjo, three characters who were infamous for being considered "NEVER EVER"-type picks for previous games but have now become playable in Ultimate. I wouldn't be surprised if (whether it's Fighters Pass 2, a potential third one, or even as a standalone "bonus" DLC character) Sakurai eventually decides to knock out the last of the "Four Horsemen of the NEVER EVER-pocalypse" and make Geno playable.

1. Joker (Persona/Shin Megami Tensei) - Jack Frost
2. Hero (Dragon Quest) - Dragonlord
3. Banjo & Kazooie (Banjo-Kazooie) - Lord of Games
4. Terry (Fatal Fury / The King of Fighters / SNK) - Haohmaru
5. Byleth (Fire Emblem) - Sothe

Somehow whenever we talk about never evers, everyone conveniently forgets about Isaac.

 

[AceAttorney9000]

Somehow whenever we talk about never evers, everyone conveniently forgets about Isaac.

In the event that Assist Trophy promotions happen (my stance on them being: I don't know if it's possible until either it actually happens or Sakurai comes out and says "not happening"), I think Isaac has a pretty good shot.

 

[Faso115]

Isaac has to compete with Waluigi in the AT promotions category, and we all know who the internet really wants.

Also, i don't believe AT are ever getting removed so get comfy, those two aren't going anywhere.

 

[shinhed-echi]

Somehow whenever we talk about never evers, everyone conveniently forgets about Isaac.

Oh... Isaac.
Going from extremely likely to absolutely not likely. I’d have a little hope for him if it weren’t for the fact that he has 2 spirits after him, a Mii costume, and an AT which isn’t just a port of Brawl’s, it was completely revamped and remastered.

He is absolutely one of the never-Evers. But maybe he simply has everything against him now.
(Although I don’t think this stopped Ridley supporters when he was revealed to be a part of Pyrosphere).

 

[NurpNurp]

Ah, today's the day! Anyone happen to have an estimate on the release time for Byleth?

 

[AceAttorney9000]

Also, i don't believe AT are ever getting removed so get comfy, those two aren't going anywhere.

... this point keeps getting brought up, and my response to it will always be the same: there's ways they can make Assist Trophy characters playable without removing or altering the Assist Trophy version.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Isaac has to compete with Waluigi in the AT promotions category, and we all know who the internet really wants.

Also, i don't believe AT are ever getting removed so get comfy, those two aren't going anywhere.

Plot twist: Spring Man is the first AT promotion, resulting in salt from Waluigi and Isaac supporters. I do recall Sakurai apologized for Spring Man not being playable just like he did with Rex.

not that I think it’ll happen of course, but it wouldn’t surprise me if so

 

[Bee Card]

I feel like some people are getting their expectations way too high for Fighter Pass 2. In retrospect, most of FP1 was pretty obscure or at least niche in some way.

Joker is huge for Atlus because they know he's their cash cow until they come out with either Persona 6, that new Hashino project or SMTV becomes a million seller. But Atlus rarely has these successes; that's why they're licensed out so much. They capitalize on them while they can; Persona 4 was in this same position.
Terry and Hero aren't very big outside of their "sphere of influence" and their inclusion was made easier by their companies wanting to expand. You can see that Hero strained their budget despite this with DQ being the biggest brand in the Fighter Pass, while Terry was still super easy to include because of it and SNK's relative obscurity.
Banjo is essentially retired and had both fan demand and company execs making it easier; if it was someone else heading Microsoft's Game department, or he was still a hot IP with million seller games or the fans were just that much quieter it wouldn't have happened.
Byleth is Byleth. He hadn't even sold a single game when they decided on him.

None of these characters are super huge outside of their sphere of influence. They're not Halo or Doom levels of huge. I think we could easily see a character from a series that's never had a million seller title. That's not to say they won't have a big name in the pass, that's absurd. But like Hero, they'll be the outlier and it'll show. Sakurai's the kind of person who'd enjoy both smaller series and triple A ones, while Nintendo has reasons to be interested in IPs of varying notoriety. And there's plenty of 'lesser' series that deserve exposure to a wider audience.

My boi Arthur confirmed for smash

 

[Garteam]

I think there is some truth that DLC tends to gravitate towards third parties who are more niche than the standards we get in the base game (Bayonetta, Fatal Fury [although this one is somewhat debatable when factoring in KoF, but I'd still hesitate to call KoF as big as Sonic, Metal Gear, or even Mega Man], Banjo-Kazooie, Persona), we still get characters sprinkled in who are just as big (if not bigger) than their base game counterparts (Street Fighter, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest).

As such, I'm expecting us to get a few really big characters in the Fighter's Pass, but I personally don't think we'll get more than two characters that fit this description. The rest of the Fighter's Pass will probably be relatively smaller third parties (although they'll still be somewhat noteworthy, I wouldn't expect anyone who hasn't broken 1 million in sales) and first parties.

 

[RileyXY1]

... this point keeps getting brought up, and my response to it will always be the same: there's ways they can make Assist Trophy characters playable without removing or altering the Assist Trophy version.

Especially considering that they already created code to stop certain ATs from spawning on certain stages. That code could be reused.

 

[Sysreq]

I think there is some truth that DLC tends to gravitate towards third parties who are more niche than the standards we get in the base game (Bayonetta, Fatal Fury [although this one is somewhat debatable when factoring in KoF, but I'd still hesitate to call KoF as big as Sonic, Metal Gear, or even Mega Man], Banjo-Kazooie, Persona), we still get characters sprinkled in who are just as big (if not bigger) than their base game counterparts (Street Fighter, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest).

As such, I'm expecting us to get a few really big characters in the Fighter's Pass, but I personally don't think we'll get more than two characters that fit this description. The rest of the Fighter's Pass will probably be relatively smaller third parties (although they'll still be somewhat noteworthy, I wouldn't expect anyone who hasn't broken 1 million in sales) and first parties.

I think similarly. And I'm really hoping against hope that Rex gets promoted 'cause he really fits that same level as Byleth imo except that not nearly as many people would be angry at his inclusion lol.

 

[Deleted member]

I don’t think there will be a new namco rep in vol 2 and I’m expecting Lloyd & heihachis costumes you return.

but if there were to be a 2nd one

I have to say that will be kos-mos

 

[RileyXY1]

I don’t think there will be a new namco rep in vol 2 and I’m expecting Lloyd & heihachis costumes you return.

but if there were to be a 2nd one

I have to say that will be kos-mos

I think that KOS-MOS is just way too niche.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I don’t think there will be a new namco rep in vol 2 and I’m expecting Lloyd & heihachis costumes you return.

but if there were to be a 2nd one

I have to say that will be kos-mos

Or someone more likely like Agumon or Nightmare if not Lloyd or Heihachi.

 

[Deleted member]

I think that KOS-MOS is just way too niche.

Yeah

so was