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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Eldrake

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My big thing is that it's very easy to fake predictions, especially if you do it on a locked or otherwise unknown Twitter account and then delete all the ones that didn't come true before un-privating and spreading the links. The Wayback Machine doesn't have any archived version of that page before the day they started gaining traction, not even to the October date where the Byleth tweet was made, so we have no way to check that.

That said, because they are doing it so simply, it's very easy to prove or disprove them. Either Crash is next, or he isn't. It's the same reason I enjoy leaks with easy kill dates - they're binary. They don't string you along.
Nice, someone else who find the MandyCan twitter suspicious. I was wondering why it's only after Byleth's reveal that I hear about this guy. After all, if they supposedly predicted MK11 at TGA and No Smash at TGA, then surely someone would have brought up MandyCan between TGA and Byleth's reveal.
 

Calamitas

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Vergeben used to be able to give us names months in advance during the base roster. He doesn't do that anymore.

If playing guess who with us is all they're going to be doing with us now and then reveal stuff at the last millisecond then it's really not worth listening to them anymore.
Correct. Vergeben leaking mii costumes 15 minutes in advance of being officially revealed was laughable too.
I mean, Sakurai himself stated they were being especially secretive about Byleth to the point where not many people at Nintendo even knew about them, but go off, I guess.

Didn't they say at first that it wasn't a Nintendo character? I don't really care if they eventually "corrected" it.

If anything it gives credence to the face that they're wrong a lot of the time. A healthy dose of skepticism with anyone, including a few leakers that have sources, is a good thing.
Yeah, Vergeben said that for about a day before he clarified that there was a misunderstanding with his source. Not really worth going "Oh my god he's completely unreliable! Never listen to him!!!!" over.
 
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XHero

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They need to get people excited again after revealing a new fighter pass. Byleth has nothing to do with it, since the people who bought FP1 already paid for it. No matter who they ended on, they'd need to start with a heavy hitter for FP2.

It literally has nothing to do with Byleth lmao. It's basic marketing.
I think Crash will be challenger pack 6, and since Byleth from Fire Emblem: Three Houses is a challenger pack, I think we can get a challenger pack from Pokemon Sword & Pokemon Shield and the Pokemon character would be Cinderace
 

IsmaR

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Really? If so that I must of been blinding by the fact. I like Robin pfff because ganon seemed waaay more heavy to me then Robin
Overall mobility isn't directly tied to only run speed/weight. Ganon is among the slowest in air acceleration/air speed/walk speed, has a linear/bad recovery and most of their moves feel sluggish even compared to Incineroar. Plus they've always just "felt" slow, given how TP Ganon stained our minds forever.

At first glance, I think Byleth will feel similar when using their axe moves specifically, otherwise I'd wait and see until we get to try them for ourselves.

More than anything, I hope we get more varied playstyles. I love Piranha Plant/Hero now despite being them being kinda slow/awkward at first.
 

Garteam

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Why are we giving Sabi the time of day? The fact he were so eager to jump onto Zippo, who wasn't even leaking anything and was just making a prediction (one that didn't come true at that) shows he really doesn't know anything he's talking about. He's a well that's dried up at best.
 

RetroBro

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I mean, Sakurai himself stated they were being especially secretive about Byleth to the point where not many people at Nintendo even knew about them, but go off, I guess.



Yeah, Vergeben said that for about a day before he clarified that there was a misunderstanding with his source. Not really worth going "Oh my god he's completely unreliable! Never listen to him!!!!" over.
That's putting words in someone's mouth if I ever saw it. I literally said "A healthy dose of skepticism". It's the right path to take. They literally get things wrong frequently enough as they've gotten things right frequently.
 

Flyboy

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Why are we giving Sabi the time of day? The fact he were so eager to jump onto Zippo, who wasn't even leaking anything and was just making a prediction (one that didn't come true at that) shows he really doesn't know anything he's talking about. He's a well that's dried up at best.
That was the final straw for me. Zippo clarified immediately that it was pure speculation and people are so quick to take his words out of context and Sabi was like "guys look I'm backing Zippo! You trust me, right??? Your old pal Sabi!".

It's exhausting.
 

Wunderwaft

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.....
Alrighty then....
They mean competitively speaking and they're right. The development team butchered Bayonetta in this game and made her super weak compared to before. I know she was broken in Smash 4 but they went a bit overboard with the nerfs.
 
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CosmicQuark

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Exactly, exactly.

All the characters aren't exactly gonna be as well-received as sacred cows, because that's kind of reality in that nobody is perfect. Cloud gets bashed, Joker gets bashed, and practically everyone gets bashed in some way. Then again, this isn't exactly a "perfect game" for everyone.

Point is, nobody should expect a perfect pleasing response from everyone even if they have been requested for many years.
Agreed.

Joker: "Why is he so broken?"
Banjo & Kazooie: "Why are they not broken?"

Banjo & Kazooie's moveset is perfect for someone like me, who likes variety and really hated other characters who couldn't do anything after an up B. But even though it feels perfect, doesn't mean it is. Looking back, I had tons of reservations--especially compared to Terry, where Sakurai felt it was important to include his super specials, as well as Hero having dozens of command inputs, I wondered why it wasn't important to include egg varieties, particularly since those mechanics are already in the game (e.g., burning, freezing, mecha koopas for clockwork kazooie eggs). I like a lot of ideas of what PSIGuy PSIGuy mentioned as well. A few more revisions could have more accurately summed up the characters. At the same time, I'm glad they're not overly gimmicky and is a return to form to what the Smash characters were like in the 64 days, how I envisioned them being in. Either direction they picked, they were going to be not perfect for someone, and in my case, both have their drawbacks. I think it's important to be grateful for what we have, but open enough to speculate on how things could have improved. They're still perfect to me despite their imperfections.

Why are we giving Sabi the time of day? The fact he were so eager to jump onto Zippo, who wasn't even leaking anything and was just making a prediction (one that didn't come true at that) shows he really doesn't know anything he's talking about. He's a well that's dried up at best.
Yeah, I haven't paid attention to the rumor mill as much now that I'm content going into reveals as surprises, but it reminds me so much of Loz--was surprisingly accurate at first, and then looked like they were just taking shots in the dark. My guess is that in addition to the many reasons why they shouldn't have gone on that E3 list of everything that was going to happen, their sources became weary of actually sharing information. It's one thing to hint and have plausible deniability, it's another thing to bullet point everything that's going to happen, getting too much attention and potentially narrowing down sources.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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Yeah, Sabi has nothing directly backing their credibility especially when it comes to Smash content.

There’s also the fact that when they leak something it’s, “I can’t believe you don’t believe what I have to say. I’m clearly credible!” If you have to say that, then you’re not actually a proven credible source yet.

I think leakers can have some part of the discussion. I think there’s an inherent clout chasing aspect to it. But Vergeben definitely has had correct information in the past. They just don’t have that same credibility with DLC.

More or less, while I wouldn’t put a ton of stock in what leakers say anymore, I would certainly listen to Verge more than I would listen to Sabi when it comes to Smash. Other than that? They may very well be credible.
 
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Schnee117

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Why are we giving Sabi the time of day? The fact he were so eager to jump onto Zippo, who wasn't even leaking anything and was just making a prediction (one that didn't come true at that) shows he really doesn't know anything he's talking about. He's a well that's dried up at best.
The best part is still the whole "my friend Zippo" / "Sabi's an acquaintance I guess?" thing.
 

Jomosensual

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Would anyone be opposed to BotW Zelda being a new challenger? Maybe Challenger Pack 11?

I know it’ll probably be a minute before we see BotW 2, but it just got me thinking.

It would be a great way to add another Zelda character and promote the new BotW. Just a thought.

And no, she wouldn’t be an echo fighter of Zelda. I picture her using the champion’s abilities like Link can. And before the whole “Zelda never used them though!” Ness and Lucas don’t use a major of their smash moves in their home game. Also, Robin never uses Nosferatu in his/her home game.

Thoughts? Reactions if it happened?
Yes for a few reasons.
1. I'd like a LOZ rep that's not a Zelda, Link, or Gannon
2. Sakurai already explained that he didnt think it would work
3. It would work better as an echo, and I don't really want echos as a full spot in the pass. It would be like if we got Paper Mario as on of the DLC slots. Like cool, we got a reskinned Zelda that we didn't really need at all.
 

lordvaati

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The real issue lies in those falling into the kneejerk of instantly tracking anything said by one who called an unexpected character twist and taking it as law. It's like that one 4chan post who called all 4 of Hero's alts rifht which led to said person having to go on Twitter and just saying it was a wild guess.
 

Jomosensual

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This was a post I made titled 'Top 10 Fighting Game characters I want playable in Smash'


Pretty simple, but as the title states, I'll be listing the top 10 fighting game characters I want in Smash.... This game or the next.

Let's just get right into it I guess:

Bonus: Rayman (Brawlhalla)
While i would like to see 'Brawhalla' get its own rep that isn't Rayman, I think Rayman would work as a 'Brawlhalla' rep. Don't you think?


10. Aegislash (Pokkén Tournament)
This one might be cheating, since this is a fighting game soley based off a heavily-repped property... But I think Aegislash could work in Smash. He has a moveset thanks to Pokkén... Just add some new stuff and bring him over already!


9. Akuma (Street Fighter AND Tekken)
Akuma is a popular character that could represent 2 popular fighting games. While he would be pushed in as a Street Fighter Rep, he'd still be a good rep for tekken, because he was still a guest character and main story character in Tekken 7.


8. Mileena (Mortal Kombat)
She's a girl... And a villian... We don't have either of those in the current round of Smash Ultimate DLC. Plus, we don't have any Mortal Kombat characters in Smash yet. She could easily be dialed down a bit to be less violent so that she could be in Smash...


7. Uh... Master Chief? (Dead or Alive)
While it wasn't technically master chief in 'Dead or Alive,' it was still a spartan. I've never played 'Halo' but Master Cheif and the spartans are the same thing.... Right? Sorry if i just offended your manhood, Greg.


6. Guillotine (Marvel Contest of Champions)
While she and her robotic copy "Guillotine 2099" are still Marvel characters, they were created for the mobile fighting game 'Contest of Champions.' She uses a sword, but she definately has some good moveset potential.


5. Ultron Sigma (Marvel vs Capcom)
A fusion of Marvel's Ultron, & the Megaman Series' Sigma, Ultron Sigma is a force to be reckoned with. He could be a cool way to represent Marvel Comics, if they don't use Guillotine.


4. Dark Kahn (Mortal Kombat vs The DC Universe)
Another fusion character, but this time of a DC character & a Mortal Kombat character. Shao Kahn & Darkseid fused into this powerful beast in 'Mortal Kombat vs The DC Universe.' He has a whole moveset that was taken from other fighters in that game, and using these moves in Smash could be a decent shoutout to those characters.


3. Kratos (Mortal Kombat, & many more)
Kratos is no stranger to being represented in games outside of his home series 'God of War.' He was the first guest character to ever appear in a Mortal Kombat game, being a PS3 exclusive base-game character. He was also in Soul Calibur, among other games.


2. Heihachi (Tekken , Soul Calibur)
Heihachi is the face of the Tekken series, and has had a Mii Costume in Sm4sh, which disappeared in ultimate. He is notably slow in his home series, which could limitnhis options... Although, he is much faster and powerful in Soul Calibur 2, and a moveset could be pulled from both series. Also, seeing Link, Heihachi, & Ryu go at it together again would be magical for many Soul Calibur & Street Fighter fans.


1. Scorpion (Mortal Kombat)
A pipe-dream of mine ever since I first played Sm4sh way back in 2015. Sm4sh was my first Smash, & 'Mortal Kombat 2009' was a game I loved for years before. He needs to "GET OVER HERE" already!
Like 4 of these aren't even from fighting games.
 

I.D.

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I mean, Sakurai himself stated they were being especially secretive about Byleth to the point where not many people at Nintendo even knew about them, but go off, I guess.



Yeah, Vergeben said that for about a day before he clarified that there was a misunderstanding with his source. Not really worth going "Oh my god he's completely unreliable! Never listen to him!!!!" over.
Why did you start listening to leakers? Was it because you wanted to know reliable info ahead of time or did you just want to brag about internet strangers being right?

I don't give a damn about the reason. If Vergeben can't give you real info then why would you keep listening? And I am not talking just about Byleth. Vergeben's track record when it comes to DLC has been awful. Missed plant. Missed Joker. He got "Erdrick" albeit missing the date several times. He got Banjo after Shinobi kindly leaked him in his place. He got Terry after Nintendo's ****up. Missed Byleth.
That's 1 out of 6. Funnily enough he leaked "Erdrick" before the game released so when you think about it he hasn't provided reliable info in well over a year. Why should anyone care at this point, honestly?
 
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Faso115

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My favourite leaker is Nintendo.

Only one that predicted Terry. Well, SNK but they were far better than the others in the leak game
 

Nemuresu

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Why did you start listening to leakers? Was it because you wanted to know reliable info ahead of time or did you just want to brag about internet strangers being right?

I don't give a damn about the reason. If Vergeben can't give you real info then why would you keep listening? And I am not talking just about Byleth. Vergeben's track record when it comes to DLC has been awful. Missed plant. Missed Joker. He got "Erdrick" albeit missing the date several times. He got Banjo after Shinobi kindly leaked him in his place. He got Terry after Nintendo's ****up. Missed Byleth.
That's 1 out of 6. Funnily enough he leaked "Erdrick" before the game released so when you think about it he hasn't provided reliable info in well over a year. Why should anyone care at this point, honestly?
Except he gives real info.
Forget about whether Erdrick's name was accurate, because the character was still there and the fact we got not one but two different guys from that list (let alone those being the ones that were originally planned) tells it was accurate info.
Not to mention, how can you say that leaking the costumes minutes into the Direct doesn't count? It was accurate and happened before a reveal, that's what's important. It's not like you can guess things like that so accurately in a matter of minutes.
 

I.D.

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Not to mention, how can you say that leaking the costumes minutes into the Direct doesn't count?
Is this a real question
"Wow the official stream finally started! Better stop watching so I can check out Verge's posts. Gotta stay ahead of the curve"
 

Krankees

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I hope Vol.2 will be as secretive as Byleth. It would be nice to not get spoiled by leaks.
 

staindgrey

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Genuine question:

How many times in Smash has a leaker been legitimately right?

I don't mean "yeah I heard this character is in it, but take it with a grain of salt" then the character shows up later. I mean a wholehearted, absolute, stake-my-reputation-on-this-leak leaker getting a prediction exactly right.
 

Rangez

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Genuine question:

How many times in Smash has a leaker been legitimately right?

I don't mean "yeah I heard this character is in it, but take it with a grain of salt" then the character shows up later. I mean a wholehearted, absolute, stake-my-reputation-on-this-leak leaker getting a prediction exactly right.
Are you not counting Vergeben with this?
 

DarthEnderX

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I like how even though we pretty much agree that nobody cares what Sabi says anymore, y'all still talked about them for 2 pages.

They're a fake. We know it. 10 of you don't need to give the new guy a dissertation on why.
 

Cosmic77

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I never doubt any leak. I learned that after Gematsu predicted every character in Smash 4, including Chrom and Chorus Kids.

We're getting that Minecraft content that Verge first heard in late spring 2018 any day now!
 

RoboFist

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I think they look fun, too.

The question remains if they'll actually be fun to use, though. I'll be incredibly disappointed if Byleth doesn't end up clicking with me since they were easily among my most wanted characters.
I feel you. One of my most wanted pipe dream characters was Duck Hunt Dog (feel free to judge) and when they actually got in, I was overjoyed until I realized that their wonky playstyle wasn't my bag AT ALL.

I still practice with them and I'm getting a lot better, but man I wish they weren't such a chore to play...
 

Herocin

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I never doubt any leak. I learned that after Gematsu predicted every character in Smash 4, including Chrom and Chorus Kids.

We're getting that Minecraft content that Verge first heard in late spring 2018 any day now!
Well I’m still waiting for Katalina. Don’t worry she’s coming.
 

Scoliosis Jones

Kept you waiting, huh?
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I mean leaks definitely happen. Seems the Internet seems to misunderstand how they happen though, or who the people involved are.

More than anything, Gematsu was essentially outdated, but mostly correct.

Verge absolutely got Ridley, Icies, Snake, and the Belmont’s correct. He didn’t get “Everyone is here!”, K.Rool, Dark Samus, or Chrom. He got Isabelle, Ken, and Incineroar, though he had mixed thoughts on if Isabelle was a clone or not.

Ken and Incineroar were common knowledge. Basically anybody with “insider” connections knew about it.

With DLC, the only thing Verge got was Erdrick. He missed Joker, got Banjo last minute, only said it was Terry specifically after the Nintendo webpage leaked it, and nobody got Byleth (with that one I think there was potential offense by parties involved to get leakers off the trail).

Minecraft was leaked to him by a source that many might have bribed at the time, but has since shown themselves to be unreliable. If I were him, I probably would have believed it too.

Either way, it’s kinda nice not having the backdrop of leaker discussion with our current topics. It’s a refreshing start.
 
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Nemuresu

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Is this a real question
"Wow the official stream finally started! Better stop watching so I can check out Verge's posts. Gotta stay ahead of the curve"
Ever seen people livewatching with others through threads? We've had some of those in the past, such as the recent Game Awards. Not saying that anyone in their right minds would interrupt their watching to see what a leaker says, but we have more than enough evidence in the posts to know many ran into them.
 

IsmaR

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Genuine question:

How many times in Smash has a leaker been legitimately right?

I don't mean "yeah I heard this character is in it, but take it with a grain of salt" then the character shows up later. I mean a wholehearted, absolute, stake-my-reputation-on-this-leak leaker getting a prediction exactly right.
Counting or discounting the debatable/"clearly a lucky guess" ones? People usually only remember what's convenient/easy to dismiss as such.

IIRC, ChaosZero/the Brawl leaks described the exact functionality of the Dragoon item in Brawl and added up with the other leaks to give us the final roster

Vergeben gets the usual shaky claims everyone always brings up, but very few ever bring up that he called Isaac being an Assist Trophy at the peak of 'Grinch leak is definitely real guys.' Though that's considered another one for the pile of last minute things.

Shinobi/whatever other Era staff that "called/hinted" at Ultimate's name/Ridley/Banjo/whatever else before all other leakers jump on the bandwagon, but those typically aren't 'stakes' and are quickly written off as "we were just having fun" when later questioned.
 

Faso115

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Gematsu was legit but with outdated info.

The ERSB roster leak was also legit and probably has been the only real blurry image leak we ever gotten

Verg called the return of Snake as well as Ridley, Simon, Isabelle and Kencineroar. Also called Hero, but only as Erdrick and that's when his reliability started to drop.

There is also that pic with Ken that popped up around September-October 18. It seems it was legit.
 

Lamperouge

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I feel you. One of my most wanted pipe dream characters was Duck Hunt Dog (feel free to judge) and when they actually got in, I was overjoyed until I realized that their wonky playstyle wasn't my bag AT ALL.

I still practice with them and I'm getting a lot better, but man I wish they weren't such a chore to play...
I can't judge you too hard since Duck Hunt was the retro rep that I was rooting for back in the Smash 4 days.

Speaking of characters not clicking, Mega Man was my biggest want for years and I lost my mind when he finally made it in...only to find out that I just couldn't get the hang of how to effectively utilize his toolkit and learn reliable combos. I still use him in a casual setting from time to time, but damn if I'm not straight garbage with him.
 

shinhed-echi

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I usually adapt to the playstyle for the sake of using most my wanted characters.

I guess the closest case to this for me would be :ultlittlemac: .
I mean... even though I think he's one of my best characters, he's still Little Mac. And I'd had never suspected they'd use him to be a completely grounded character, and trash character anywhere else. If Mario can deliver an earth shattering meteor smash with his fist, Little Mac should at least be able to do one as well, only twice as hard. I get the philosophy behind "putting your whole weight behind the punch" as someone who has practiced fighting sports... but dang. They did Mac real dirty with this...
 
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DarthEnderX

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I feel you. One of my most wanted pipe dream characters was Duck Hunt Dog (feel free to judge) and when they actually got in, I was overjoyed until I realized that their wonky playstyle wasn't my bag AT ALL.
Me and Hero, man. Me and Hero...
 

SuperSmashStephen

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Yes for a few reasons.
1. I'd like a LOZ rep that's not a Zelda, Link, or Gannon
2. Sakurai already explained that he didnt think it would work
3. It would work better as an echo, and I don't really want echos as a full spot in the pass. It would be like if we got Paper Mario as on of the DLC slots. Like cool, we got a reskinned Zelda that we didn't really need at all.
I can agree to all of that, minus Paper Mario being an Echo. He has more than enough source material to pull from to make a unique and interesting moveset completely separate from OG Mario. The only thing they’d have in common Smash wise is sharing the name Mario.
 
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Genuine question:

How many times in Smash has a leaker been legitimately right?

I don't mean "yeah I heard this character is in it, but take it with a grain of salt" then the character shows up later. I mean a wholehearted, absolute, stake-my-reputation-on-this-leak leaker getting a prediction exactly right.
IAmShifty was right about Piranha Plant and Incineroar (at that point, Verge was talking about a 'Gen 7 Pokemon'). He also leaked that Dracula, Rathalos and Marx would appear as bosses. So he's a bit more low profile, not a lot of predictions but they all turned out to be true (at least for the base game).

About Piranha Plant tho, tbf he kinda doubted his source about the info so he wasn't totally all in on that one (can't really blame him lol).

But yeah, last we heard of him he was predicting Hayabusa for FP4 iirc... so i doubt his sources are still reliable for DLC.
 

Rie Sonomura

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IAmShifty was right about Piranha Plant and Incineroar (at that point, Verge was talking about a 'Gen 7 Pokemon'). He also leaked that Dracula, Rathalos and Marx would appear as bosses. So he's a bit more low profile, not a lot of predictions but they all turned out to be true (at least for the base game).

About Piranha Plant tho, tbf he kinda doubted his source about the info so he wasn't totally all in on that one (can't really blame him lol).

But yeah, last we heard of him he was predicting Hayabusa for FP4 iirc... so i doubt his sources are still reliable for DLC.
Wasn’t there another insider who claimed Hayabusa wouldn’t come in 2019? It would also line up with the “Byleth and Hayabusa switched places” rumor
 

MasterOfKnees

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Genuine question:

How many times in Smash has a leaker been legitimately right?

I don't mean "yeah I heard this character is in it, but take it with a grain of salt" then the character shows up later. I mean a wholehearted, absolute, stake-my-reputation-on-this-leak leaker getting a prediction exactly right.
The most specific leak that ever turned out to be true was NyaseNya during the Brawl days, on this very site in fact. The dude straight up leaked Sonic’s reveal date, as well as the fact that the game was getting delayed. He even knew that the game was going to be on a dual layer disc, so whichever sources he had must have been really damn close to development.
 
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Flyboy

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Wasn’t there another insider who claimed Hayabusa wouldn’t come in 2019? It would also line up with the “Byleth and Hayabusa switched places” rumor
There was never a "Byleth and Hayabusa switched places" rumor. That, as of right now, is an unproven conspiracy theory that really makes little sense if you take any metric about game development and project plans into account.
 
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