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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Idon

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So what do you think are the odds for the third party companies (Atlus, Square, Microsoft, and SNK) that got rep in FP1 getting another rep in FP2?
Pft, I wish Atlus stood a chance, but no they're pretty much one and done. Same with SNK considering they blew out all possible side content for their other franchies primarily to make Terry that much more appealing.
 

Rie Sonomura

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So what do you think are the odds for the third party companies (Atlus, Square, Microsoft, and SNK) that got rep in FP1 getting another rep in FP2?
Square Enix. Neku Sakuraba. PLEASEINEEEEEEEEDIIIIIIITTTTTTT
 

Garteam

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The fact that we're getting six fighters instead of five likely means that the Fighter's Pass 2 will mostly consist of lesser known third parties and first parties, solely out of budgetary reasons. That's not to say we won't get any big characters, but I wouldn't assume that everyone in Fighter's Pass #2 will be a major hitter.

Then again, Fighter's Pass 2 could have an increased budget after the original sold so well. It's tough to say.
 

Ivander

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So what do you think are the odds for the third party companies (Atlus, Square, Microsoft, and SNK) that got rep in FP1 getting another rep in FP2?
The only ones I can imagine coming back are Microsoft and Square. Microsoft for Master Chief and Square for any of Lara Croft, 2B, Sora and maybe Neku and a Bravely character.
 

SKX31

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I've yet to see anybody give the disparity point a decent rebuttal. Usually it's just "but Mario and Pokemon!" or "but FE is good!".

Either that or it gets brushed aside and people conflate every complaint with "**** FE" and follow with "they just salty they didn't get their character" so as to invalidate the, imo, insightful criticism such as this.
If I may attempt a rebuttal then: It's about Sakurai being a fanboy (hard to stop that) and Nintendo themselves marking FE as a major point of focus and trying to turn the series into a flagship (hard to stop that too).

That's not my opinion, it's what I'm assuming. My opinion on the matter is mixed - I'd prefer if the love was a bit more spread yes, but I'm not gonna be fussed about it in the end.

I'm kinda interested to see how 3 Houses does when it's officially released in China. Sure, imports don't look to be too high there at the moment, but China has a really big anime fanbase (one of the biggest video sites there is a haven for anime). Of course, it'll likely be a factor of how big the Switch gets there (there's no official data on how big it is after Day 1).

The only ones I can imagine coming back are Microsoft and Square. Microsoft for Master Chief and Square for any of Lara Croft, 2B, Sora and maybe Neku and a Bravely character.
I could see Arle or Kiryu though. SNK is probably a no, though - and that stretches to SNK's owners too for now. LeYou owns Digital Extremes and Warframe, but Warframe ain't getting in, 37 Games is a mobile-only developer, and Orient Securities is an investment bank - not a video game publisher / dev. Now, LeYou is in talks of being bought out by iDreamSky (iDreamSky is Tencent-backed, and if the deal goes through :ult_terry:'s very indirectly and partly owned by Tencent).

Tencent has loads of connections, so I could certainly see another character from a Tencent-connected company. Or even Tencent (through Riot / LoL) themselves.
 
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I.D.

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What Mii costumes are there that makes you suspect this?
The ancient soldier mii costume. Not exactly the same as the Rex mii costume sure, but considering Sakurai's interesting relationship with the Zelda series, I strongly suspect this is all the Zelda content we're going to see in pass 2.
 

Sc_Ev0lution

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You mean for free
Most dirt is free. But yes, I agree Reimu wouldn't cost much to licence, if for no other reason than there's just one person to pay.

The only ones I can imagine coming back are Microsoft and Square. Microsoft for Master Chief and Square for any of Lara Croft, 2B, Sora and maybe Neku and a Bravely character.
I'd love a Bravely Default character. The series is a lot of fun, is closely tied to nintendo, has great music, and is getting a new game this year. The dream would be a hero style alt where each of the 4 main characters from the first game are included, but having the character be Tiz or Edea seems more reasonable (I guess anyone but Ringabell, poor Ringabell). I think they have a lot of moveset potential too. Aside from the many weapons, spells, and classes, the brave/default system alone is interesting enough, though maybe without focus attack, Joker down-b, and limit break it could stand out more.
 

I.D.

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Most dirt is free. But yes, I agree Reimu wouldn't cost much to licence, if for no other reason than there's just one person to pay.
No, I mean literally for free. As far as I know ZUN has no problem lending out his characters to whoever asks for them.
 

Zeox

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The fact that we're getting six fighters instead of five likely means that the Fighter's Pass 2 will mostly consist of lesser known third parties and first parties, solely out of budgetary reasons.
Here we go, Monokuma. it's your chance!
 

Knight Dude

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Pft, I wish Atlus stood a chance, but no they're pretty much one and done. Same with SNK considering they blew out all possible side content for their other franchies primarily to make Terry that much more appealing.
We're really not gonna get that Rock Howard Echo pulling a Toon Link/Alfonzo. Are we?


Sad Rock.png
 

Guybrush20X6

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I personally think that the additional character is there because there was 6 last time too.
The five in the pass plus Piranha plant.

I do think there'll be more Nintendo owned characters this time, which would make for a 50/50 split.
 

Smashoperatingbuddy123

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Never believe a twitter leaker with zero track record.
:glare: i said check if not faked in any way to make it look like its real but not that it matters sure its just a miracle guess

and its true that sabi and verge are still alive

verge nailed all the mii costumes in just the nick of time

and ever since byleth was revealed sabi confirmed it was byleth they were saying they refused to say thus confirm all the wrongs were right (but i need serious proof sabi not just saying this though)
 

3BitSaurus

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Alright, early predictions for FP2 (in full this time).

CP6 - Sora or 2B. Both would kick off the Pass really strongly. Chocobo and Geno costumes come with them.

CP7 - A character from a new japanese company - my bet is either Hayabusa or Travis, the former for NES legacy, the latter for Wii legacy and current relevance.

CP8 - A western character. No idea who, but I think we'll get at least one more.

CP9 - Heihachi. Enough said. Comes with Namco Mii Costumes.

CP10 - First party character, probably from a 2020/early 2021 game.

CP11 - Dante. I think he'd be our second exception for "ending with a bang", like Bayo. The remaining Capcom costumes come with him.

I suppose I could elaborate more, but I'm on mobile and I'm lazy, so...
 

Guynamednelson

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The fact that we're getting six fighters instead of five likely means that the Fighter's Pass 2 will mostly consist of lesser known third parties and first parties, solely out of budgetary reasons
I already think there's gonna be a smaller budget when it'll apparently take longer to release these six than it did to release the five FP1 characters+Piranha Plant.
 

lordvaati

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Just for the matter being, here are USA's top selling Switch games of 2019:

Everyone is free to show their own cases as to why Fire Emblem deserves those eight characters (and I'm sure some have already done so), but suggesting it comes close to Mario, Zelda and Pokémon isn't a good one in any fashion.
Slightly off topic but clicking on that link showed that the remake of BiS was the 4th best selling 3DS game of the year.....but then I remembered how that game underperformed so much it led to Alphadream going bankrupt.
I feel sad now.
 

Sc_Ev0lution

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No, I mean literally for free. As far as I know ZUN has no problem lending out his characters to whoever asks for them.
That's... actually a very interesting point. For fan games, as long as you fund production personally (no crowdfunding), make your own assets, and give ZUN credit, you can use Touhou characters, music, etc.

But this isn't the work of a hobbyist, but a game produced by a AAA studio. Off the top of my head, the only comparable instance is the game Taiko no Tatsujin: Dokodon! Mystery Adventure where 3 Touhou characters make an appearance. If we knew the licensing situation there, it could shed light on what a Smash Bros. deal could look like.
 

N3ON

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If I may attempt a rebuttal then: It's about Sakurai being a fanboy (hard to stop that) and Nintendo themselves marking FE as a major point of focus and trying to turn the series into a flagship (hard to stop that too).

That's not my opinion, it's what I'm assuming. My opinion on the matter is mixed - I'd prefer if the love was a bit more spread yes, but I'm not gonna be fussed about it in the end.

I'm kinda interested to see how 3 Houses does when it's officially released in China. Sure, imports don't look to be too high there at the moment, but China has a really big anime fanbase (one of the biggest video sites there is a haven for anime). Of course, it'll likely be a factor of how big the Switch gets there (there's no official data on how big it is after Day 1).
I can't argue with those points, but perhaps I was unclear in my post. It's not about why the character was chosen, I think people understand the reasoning that went into it, it's about trying to write-off peoples' issues with FE on the basis of the chronic oversight regarding all the other series which have just as much to offer.

It's about reducing everything to haters and saltiness when, although those blunt, malicious people obviously exist, the problem some people have is the disproportionate treatment. Even if it's understood why it's happening, I think it's hard to discredit the dissatisfaction that stems from how relatively equal series receive disparate treatment within Smash. And the more disparate it becomes, the more some people find it difficult to reconcile.

It's not a simple indictment of the series itself, (I can't speak for everyone, but I certainly have no problem with FE as a series - I don't play every game but I do enjoy those that I play, including 3H), nor does the argument inherently stem from bias: someone not receiving their specific character, which are the strawmen that usually get addressed when this concern is broached.

As to my earlier analogy, it's like one employee getting frequent raises when so many others also deserve a promotion. As to your point, it isn't to say that that one employee doesn't deserve it, but the resentment that might percolate from other worthwhile employees repeatedly failing to get recognized despite comparable performance is, in my opinion, completely understandable and difficult to refute.

Were it, for example, DK with the eight characters instead, I'm sure many people would have exactly the same concerns. I certainly would, despite also enjoying the DK games.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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Eh, I don't know that the "six fighters over 2 years" is necessarily lower budget stuff or just that they're slowing down. Or anyway, I don't think that would rule out characters like Dante or Sora right off the bat. I don't expect all 6 characters to be massive AAA stars, as that's not evidently what Sakurai is going for.

I do want to make a point, because I get the feeling some folks think I don't want the characters they want or think they'd be bad choices. I'd like to dispel that. There are actually only a few choices I have no interest in, but that's not relevant at the moment.

Characters I think would be great for Smash Ultimate:
Doomslayer
Dovakhiin
Dante
Phoenix Wright
Amaterasu
Chun-Li
Heihachi
Jin
Dark Souls
Lloyd Irving
Yuri Lowell
Monster Hunter
Bomberman
Raiden (MGS)
Alucard
Leon Kennedy
Jill Valentine
Rex with or without Pyra
Geno
Ryu Hayabusa
King Boo
Gengar
Isaac
Shadow the Hedgehog
Zero
A Gen 8 Pokemon
Astral Chain characters
Geralt of Rivia (doubt this one tbh)
2B
Tifa
Sora
Sephiroth
Neku Sakuraba
Fiora
KOS-MOS
Crash Bandicoot
Tracer
Kratos
Nathan Drake
...many others
Now, despite that list of characters I think would be really cool for Smash, I don't expect all of them. I more or less consider what I think more likely outcomes are, and I go about things that way.

By no means do I actually think Geno for example would be trash. I think he'd be a cool character. I simply just don't think he's going to be playable. Same thing with Bomberman, and a lesser-supported pick like Gengar.

Hope that makes sense to folks. It's not as if I have this rigid mindset where I have a breakdown if I don't get something right. I hardly give a **** about that anymore.
 
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PsychoJosh

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You must have a pretty high opinion of yourself if you can tell me what I thought. Well, the only newcomers I've thought implausible beforehand have been Richter, Piranha Plant, and Terry. That's not to say I predicted all the others, just that the notion of their inclusion didn't strike me as a long shot.

Because all plausibility is is gauging which characters rank highly in factors that historically have lead to inclusion, or have extenuating boons in their case, such as developer statements, suspicious omissions, or believable leaks. It's just reading the terrain to come to an educated deduction. It's not infallible, but, unless your head is in the clouds, it's not worthless either.

So, if you found all the characters in the pass implausible beforehand as you're accusing of me, and you think your list with, like, Earthworm Jim, Klonoa, the Battletoads and F-Type is comparable from a likelihood perspective, I'd say my outlook is more reliable.
There's no predictability or pattern to any of the character choices so it's impossible to gauge which characters are plausible and which are not. Many people thought Master Chief and Dante were shoo-ins for the fifth pass and then Byleth came and squatted all over it. No one thought Joker or Cloud had any sort of chance of making it into the game. Until the waveform collapses and we get a reveal trailer you have no clue what's going to happen. The only way your argument makes sense is if you're telling me you've been 100% correct on character predictions based on your subjective view of plausibility. This is the age of deep fakes and the proliferation of nearly autonomous photo and video editing tools. Anyone can make leaks, even believable ones. The only time a character becomes plausible is after they've already been revealed.

It's a lost cause to argue about plausibility. The truth is that most of the DLC characters have been the mustard in your math that have forced you to rethink everything, just like future ones will be. Nearly all of them have been deemed implausible for various reasons. Ridley was deemed implausible because he was too big and already a boss. Bayonetta, too lewd. Cloud, PlayStation only. K. Rool, irrelevant. Snake, no longer possible due to Kojima's fallout with Konami. Castlevania, dead series. You even mentioned Terry and Richter. I'm saying it's impossible to form a theory of plausibility when more often than not the new characters have faced seemingly insurmountable odds.

Yes, you're some great martyr that looks at two characters with original movesets and argues unironically that they've brought nothing new.
They haven't. Again, it's the truth. Joker and Byleth bring absolutely nothing new. Their moves are functionally the same as many other moves that exist in the game, they're just mapped to different directions. Byleth's down+B is just a falcon punch. His neutral B is Link's bow that can be charged up into a miniature version of Zelda's old Final Smash. His up+B is the same as Joker's grappliing hook mixed with ZSS's flip. The aesthetic is different but the functionality is the same. They don't bring anything we haven't already seen mechanically, and I know people are going to misquote me as saying 'all the characters in Smash are exactly the same' because all they ever do is skim posts and lack reading comprehension, but there is nothing introduced by Joker or Byleth that hasn't been seen in other fighters. And it's not even that I'm saying we shouldn't have characters that don't bring anything new, it's just if you're going to have them at least make them stand out somehow, make them more visually interesting. They don't even do that.
 
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CapitaineCrash

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So what do you think are the odds for the third party companies (Atlus, Square, Microsoft, and SNK) that got rep in FP1 getting another rep in FP2?
I don't think Atlus will be back, but I could see Sega being back (most likely with Arle, but maybe with Yakuza?), just like I don't see Rare being back but more Microsoft in general (with most likely Steve I feel, but maybe Master chief). I could totally see Square being back with 2B on my predictions, but it might be someone else (for example Lara Croft is a character that I think people are sleeping on). The only one that I don't see coming back is SNK because of how much content they already have and I don't see any of their other franchise really having any chances (as much as I Marco from metal slug, it's not happening).
 

Hadokeyblade

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I'm just keeping Sakurai's previous statements in mind going into this.
Which is why I'm thinking on someone like Dante or Sora, because both those characters fit Sakurai's criteria for characters perfectly, so I would assume they've at least been considered heavily.
 

Guynamednelson

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Eh, I don't know that the "six fighters over 2 years" is necessarily lower budget stuff or just that they're slowing down
I didn't take into consideration the possibility that the reason why our first six were quicker was because PP was finishing up development when announced, while CP6 might've just started development recently.
 
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Scoliosis Jones

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I didn't take into consideration the possibility that the reason why our first six were quicker was because PP was finishing up development when announced, while CP6 might've just started development recently.
Yeah. I wouldn't be all that surprised if they're dragging it out a little longer to spread out the longevity of the life of the game, or what.

Really though...11 characters as paid DLC in total? 12 if you consider Piranha Plant? That's pretty good.
 
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Icewolff92

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So two popular theories for Byleth are
Last-minute addition because something went wrong...
Were always meant to be in the base game

And truth be told, both are just hilarious
 
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SneakyLink

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So two popular theories for Byleth are
Last-minute addition because something went wrong...
Were always meant to be in the base game

And truth be told, both is just hillarious
Base game theory wouldn’t work as if Rex and Spring Man were too new, Byleth would have to be as well.
 

I.D.

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So two popular theories for Byleth are
Last-minute addition because something went wrong...
Were always meant to be in the base game
Not believing that for a second, that would mean Sakurai decided to include him during the concept stage before 3 houses even entered proper development, which means we would be reaching levels of bias that shouldn't even possible.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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I was thinking, by the way, with Mii Fighter costumes and some series that aren't yet in Smash.

Sure, I think more Indie characters will find their way in. Celeste, Hollow Knight, Shovel Knight...I think there are some great picks still out there. But one other pick I think could happen? That isn't an indie?

Dark Souls.

I know, I know. I used to think it'd be a full character. But I get the feeling that Sakurai might look at the gameplay potential, not see enough for a playable character, but decide upon a Mii Fighter. I don't know what it is that made me change my mind, but it might have been Assassin's Creed getting Mii Costume'd.

I imagine they'd go with Solaire or potentially Artorias or...maybe both?
 

perfectchaos83

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So two popular theories for Byleth are
Last-minute addition because something went wrong...
Were always meant to be in the base game

And truth be told, both are just hilarious
If Byleth was not originally intended to be FP 5 then it being a last minute decision isn't feasible. At Best, Byleth would have had to be expedited earlier in 2019 either before E3 or around the time of E3. Sabi's Source knew of Terry and Byleth for quite a while before the September Direct So it would have been far less last minute and more of a change in plans early in the Pass's life.
 

N3ON

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I agree, even if Byleth wasn't originally intended for the first-pass, the replacement being "last-minute", absolutely, doesn't make sense. It would've been something altered a long time back. Which speaks to why they start planning things so far in advance.
 

Garteam

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Three Houses was first announced in January 2017 at the Fire Emblem Direct. There, it had no name beyond "Fire Emblem Switch" and it seemed pretty clear that it had only begun very early development. As such, there's basically no way Sakurai could've planned Byleth or a Three Houses character for the base roster.
 

DanganZilla5

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The fact that we're getting six fighters instead of five likely means that the Fighter's Pass 2 will mostly consist of lesser known third parties and first parties, solely out of budgetary reasons.
It's time for Crypto from Destroy All Humans to shine!
 

Impa4Smash

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I only have 2 realistic first party hopes. That Zelda (finally) gets another rep because of BotW 2 coming likely in 2020 or 2021. And that Sakurai finally gives us the Dee. Besides those, I’m happy with the rest being 3rd parties
 
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