Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Icewolff92]

If Byleth was not originally intended to be FP 5 then it being a last minute decision isn't feasible. At Best, Byleth would have had to be expedited earlier in 2019 either before E3 or around the time of E3. Sabi's Source knew of Terry and Byleth for quite a while before the September Direct So it would have been far less last minute and more of a change in plans early in the Pass's life.

I agree, even if Byleth wasn't originally intended for the first-pass, the replacement being "last-minute", absolutely, doesn't make sense. It would've been something altered a long time back. Which speaks to why they start planning things so far in advance.

Three Houses was first announced in January 2017 at the Fire Emblem Direct. There, it had no name beyond "Fire Emblem Switch" and it seemed pretty clear that it had only begun very early development. As such, there's basically no way Sakurai could've planned Byleth or a Three Houses character for the base roster.

Like I said... people are just looking at excuses.

 

[I.D.]

You brought this from the G*no thread didn't you? Those people are still busy analyzing the cacomallow video so they'll believe anything really.

 

[perfectchaos83]

Like I said... people are just looking at excuses.

To be fair, I can believe that explanation if there's a reason to believe it but at this point, The only explanation I can come up with would have been for saving a reveal for China's Smash launch.

 

[RaintheCriminalWhirlwind]

Like I said... people are just looking at excuses.

I just don't get it. Byleth was chosen. Simple as that. Like why make these conspiracies?

 

[Cosmic77]

The next character better come soon, because there's no way I can tolerate 5-6 months of "Byleth wasn't necessary because..." and "Here's why Byleth deserved to get in..."

It hasn't even been 3 days since the reveal and these discussions have already made me not want to hear the words "Byleth" and "Fire Emblem" for the rest of the year.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

You brought this from the G*no thread didn't you? Those people are still busy analyzing the cacomallow video so they'll believe anything really.

It still amazes me that people think that's real.

 

[Icewolff92]

To be fair, I can believe that explanation if there's a reason to believe it but at this point, The only explanation I can come up with would have been for saving a reveal for China's Smash launch.

Care to elaborate. I don¨t get that reason.

I just don't get it. Byleth was chosen. Simple as that. Like why make these conspiracies?

I¨m with ya

 

[StrawHatX]

You brought this from the G*no thread didn't you? Those people are still busy analyzing the cacomallow video so they'll believe anything really.

Are there still people who think that is real?

 

[N3ON]

The next character better come soon, because there's no way I can tolerate 5-6 months of "Byleth wasn't necessary because..." and "Here's why Byleth deserved to get in..."

It hasn't even been 3 days since the reveal and these discussions have already made me not want to hear the words "Byleth" and "Fire Emblem" for the rest of the year.

It might spike once more when Byleth releases, but then it'll taper off in February, especially if and when we get a Direct, and new (presumably bogus) leaks start surfacing.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

The next character better come soon, because there's no way I can tolerate 5-6 months of "Byleth wasn't necessary because..." and "Here's why Byleth deserved to get in..."

It hasn't even been 3 days since the reveal and these discussions have already made me not want to hear the words "Byleth" and "Fire Emblem" for the rest of the year.

While I do partially agree with you, I’d give it a few days before we throw in the towel.

Think of it this way, we waited four months for any sort of Smash information, and now that we have something new to discuss until it’s nothing more than a pulp, it very likely will be.

I, like you, hope things shift gears relatively soon.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Are there still people who think that is real?

Go to the Geno thread.

 

[perfectchaos83]

Care to elaborate. I don¨t get that reason.

China is a massive untapped market and the Switch only recently got released in December last year. Smash still isn't officially out in China and I think a character that appeals to China is a great way to get their attention to buy the game.

 

[StrawHatX]

Go to the Geno thread.

I’ve been. It’s usually just people asking Fatman questions.

 

[I.D.]

Are there still people who think that is real?

Go the G*no thread, but only if you are prepared to peek into the abyss

 

[Icewolff92]

Go to the Geno thread.

I¨ve seen it on more than just the Geno thread, but yes that one of the major places

 

[Cutie Gwen]

The funny thing about Cacomallow is that the longer it stays alive, the less likely it gets but people insist that because nobody made an identical cacodemon hat, which experienced modelers can tell you is pretty much impossible from scratch, it's somehow legit

 

[RetroBro]

Before I even speak, I'd like to point out how skeptical I am of any leak or any information anymore. But the Cacomallow leak is not 100% debunked until we see someone come forth and explain the process. People have made some pretty decent replicas and explained that it could be feasible to create. So, if you're going to point out how people are fools for even thinking it could be real. I guess I'll have to point out that if you're 100% sure it's fake, you're just on the other side of the coin of insanity.

I also posted a couple days ago about how hilarious I think it is that people STILL insist that they know with 100% fidelity what's real and what's fake or even being able to discern patterns in Sakurai's character choices/pics of the day. I'm glad that Byleth slapped people in the face ("absolutely going to be ONLY 3rd party characters"). How many times does Sakurai have to say **** it before you guys learn lol.

Also, the Geno thread is not nearly as bad as everyone says it is. Some people take speculation and their favorite characters way too seriously - but that's pretty universal on any message board that involves that.

 

[N3ON]

The funny thing about Cacomallow is that the longer it stays alive, the less likely it gets but people insist that because nobody made an identical cacodemon hat, which experienced modelers can tell you is pretty much impossible from scratch, it's somehow legit

People seem to overlook that they're asking for something in excess of the original leak. The person who created the hats didn't have to make them identical to something that already exists.

 

[Izanagi97]

Before I even speak, I'd like to point out how skeptical I am of any leak or any information anymore. But the Cacomallow leak is not 100% debunked until we see someone come forth and explain the process. People have made some pretty decent replicas and explained that it could be feasible to create. So, if you're going to point out how people are fools for even thinking it could be real. I guess I'll have to point out that if you're 100% sure it's fake you're just on the other side of the coin of insanity.

I also posted a couple days ago about how hilarious I think it is that people STILL insist that they know with 100% fidelity what's real and what's fake or even being able to discern patterns in Sakurai's character choices/pics of the day. I'm glad that Byleth slapped people in the face ("absolutely going to be ONLY 3rd party characters). How many times does Sakurai have to say **** it before you guys learn lol.

Also, the Geno thread is not nearly as bad as everyone says it is. Some people take speculation and their favorite characters way too seriously - but that's pretty universal on any message board that involves that.

Hell, only new changes regarding Cacomallow was people noticing that it dropped the same month the presentation was recorded. Other than that, it still remains an unknown.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

The thing I don't get about Cacomallow is why hold back on releasing them, when its clearly finished? Ultimate's Mii costume DLC's don't have any kind of release pattern. Just look at how we're getting Capcom and Ubisoft costumes instead of Nintendo costumes with Byleth.

Also why leak Mii costumes that very few people will actually care instead of a character or at least an actual cool Mii costume like Cuphead?

Finally why hasn't Nintendo taken any of that footage down? You can easily watch it on Youtube still because Nintendo never DMCA those videos, while at the same time they were taking down leak videos of Sword and Shield.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Before I even speak, I'd like to point out how skeptical I am of any leak or any information anymore. But the Cacomallow leak is not 100% debunked until we see someone come forth and explain the process. People have made some pretty decent replicas and explained that it could be feasible to create. So, if you're going to point out how people are fools for even thinking it could be real. I guess I'll have to point out that if you're 100% sure it's fake, you're just on the other side of the coin of insanity.

I also posted a couple days ago about how hilarious I think it is that people STILL insist that they know with 100% fidelity what's real and what's fake or even being able to discern patterns in Sakurai's character choices/pics of the day. I'm glad that Byleth slapped people in the face ("absolutely going to be ONLY 3rd party characters"). How many times does Sakurai have to say **** it before you guys learn lol.

Also, the Geno thread is not nearly as bad as everyone says it is. Some people take speculation and their favorite characters way too seriously - but that's pretty universal on any message board that involves that.

People have already shown it's possible to make a Mallow mii hat with jiggle physics, meaning the liklihood of someone also having modded in a fake hat with jiggle physics is at worst, 50%. The debug mode timer isn't accurate to the Ken leak, which makes no sense.

The Geno thread had a guy break down and doxx himself. This isn't even the first time the guy doxxed himself and everyone's going "Yeah doxx yourself you're sexy as hell and your meat is huge keep doxxing yourself! Don't listen to the haters!"

 

[I.D.]

Also, the Geno thread is not nearly as bad as everyone says it is.

Just today you had f*tman literally doxxing himself and daring people to "come fight me IRL bro" . It's a quite peculiar place if nothing else.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

The thing I don't get about Cacomallow is why hold back on releasing them, when its clearly finished? Ultimate's Mii costume DLC's don't have any kind of release pattern. Just look at how we're getting Capcom and Ubisoft costumes instead of Nintendo costumes with Byleth.

Also why leak Mii costumes that very few people will actually care instead of a character or at least an actual cool Mii costume like Cuphead?

Finally hasn't Nintendo taken any of that footage down? You can easily watch it on Youtube still because Nintendo never DMCA those videos, while at the same time they were taking down leak videos of Sword and Shield.

The reason is something went wrong so they had to make Byleth, a stage for byleth, a trailer, record multiple actors for voice lines, get a trailer planned, record a direct presentation, localize the presentation and the game itself and balance accordingly in 10 minutes which is totally what happened

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Just today you had f*tman literally doxxing himself and daring people to "come fight me IRL bro" . It's a quite peculiar place if nothing else.

WTF is even that thread suppose to be at this?

 

[RetroBro]

I mean sure. I won't defend any kind of behavior like that. But over the course of the years since this board was popular (melee--->brawl eras) this place was a cesspit of loyal fanbases that would go to extremes to defend or support their character. Other message boards were and are currently worse. Not to mention retaliatory behaviors towards other fan bases (Geno/Ridley/K Rool/Isaac/Shantae/Banjo ect ect)


And I already said I knew that people have explained it possible, ect ect. But that doesn't mean it's guaranteed fake? Whether you want to argue the likelihood is one thing. But the "durr hurr, I can't believe people still believe that - they're so dumb" is just over the top lol, come on now.

 

[Sour Supreme]

You brought this from the G*no thread didn't you? Those people are still busy analyzing the cacomallow video so they'll believe anything really.

To be fair, they're actually far more busy throwing pointless memes at each other than analyzing anything.

But no need to generalize a fanbase.

 

[Jomosensual]

Eh, I don't know that the "six fighters over 2 years" is necessarily lower budget stuff or just that they're slowing down. Or anyway, I don't think that would rule out characters like Dante or Sora right off the bat. I don't expect all 6 characters to be massive AAA stars, as that's not evidently what Sakurai is going for.

I do want to make a point, because I get the feeling some folks think I don't want the characters they want or think they'd be bad choices. I'd like to dispel that. There are actually only a few choices I have no interest in, but that's not relevant at the moment.

Characters I think would be great for Smash Ultimate:

Spoiler: Characters

Doomslayer
Dovakhiin
Dante
Phoenix Wright
Amaterasu
Chun-Li
Heihachi
Jin
Dark Souls
Lloyd Irving
Yuri Lowell
Monster Hunter
Bomberman
Raiden (MGS)
Alucard
Leon Kennedy
Jill Valentine
Rex with or without Pyra
Geno
Ryu Hayabusa
King Boo
Gengar
Isaac
Shadow the Hedgehog
Zero
A Gen 8 Pokemon
Astral Chain characters
Geralt of Rivia (doubt this one tbh)
2B
Tifa
Sora
Sephiroth
Neku Sakuraba
Fiora
KOS-MOS
Crash Bandicoot
Tracer
Kratos
Nathan Drake
...many others

Now, despite that list of characters I think would be really cool for Smash, I don't expect all of them. I more or less consider what I think more likely outcomes are, and I go about things that way.

By no means do I actually think Geno for example would be trash. I think he'd be a cool character. I simply just don't think he's going to be playable. Same thing with Bomberman, and a lesser-supported pick like Gengar.

Hope that makes sense to folks. It's not as if I have this rigid mindset where I have a breakdown if I don't get something right. I hardly give a **** about that anymore.

Woot! High five for Nathan Drake!

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I mean sure. I won't defend any kind of behavior like that. But over the course of the years since this board was popular (melee--->brawl eras) this place was a cesspit of loyal fanbases that would go to extremes to defend or support their character. Other message boards were and are currently worse.


And I already said I knew that people have explained it possible, ect ect. But that doesn't mean it's guaranteed fake? Whether you want to argue the likelihood is one thing. But the "durr hurr, I can't believe people still believe that - they're so dumb" is just over the top lol, come on now.

The thing with Cacomallow is simple, what's there to support it? Counter arguments are the following
1: Someone made a modded hat with jiggle physics proving it can be made and faked
2: The debug mode doesn't match with the Ken leak as the timers have different numbers on them
3: Nintendo takes **** down lightning fast
The arguments in favor of Cacomallow is
1: Misinformation on how modelling and rigging works
2: A conspiracy theory that Nintendo won't take it down to not spoil the surprise
3: OMGOMGOMG THAT'D BE SOOOO COOL HOW COULD IT POSSIBLY BE FAKE

 

[RetroBro]

WTF is even that thread suppose to be at this?

I dunno. I come back to see what's going on from year to year and it's nice to see the place still going. But I guess it's hard to stay sane and rally around a character for 10-15 years haha.

A lot of people used to view this place as the only place to really be able to mount a movement and show Sakurai and his team what characters were popular ect ect. I'm not so sure it has the same impact with twitter and other avenues.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

I dunno. I come back to see what's going on from year to year and it's nice to see the place still going. But I guess it's hard to stay sane and rally around a character for 10-15 years haha.

A lot of people used to view this place as the only place to really be able to mount a movement and show Sakurai and his team what characters were popular ect ect. I'm not so sure it has the same impact with twitter and other avenues.

I will say this about Geno their hope, persistence, and stubborness despite all the odds against them will never cease to amaze me. Like they're trying to get a support character character that is only appeared in 1 spin off game that is older then Smash, all while having to deal with the factor that both Nintendo and Square own way more beloved and iconic characters then just Geno. That is the kind of stubbornness that I can at least respect to some degree.

 

[StarBot]

You brought this from the G*no thread didn't you? Those people are still busy analyzing the cacomallow video so they'll believe anything really.

imagine having too censoring Geno name


I just realized, with Byleth in the game, and how FE3H was loosely inspired by Persona 5

Kinda funny to see both games in Smash

 

[RetroBro]

The thing with Cacomallow is simple, what's there to support it? Counter arguments are the following
1: Someone made a modded hat with jiggle physics proving it can be made and faked
2: The debug mode doesn't match with the Ken leak as the timers have different numbers on them
3: Nintendo takes **** down lightning fast
The arguments in favor of Cacomallow is
1: Misinformation on how modelling and rigging works
2: A conspiracy theory that Nintendo won't take it down to not spoil the surprise
3: OMGOMGOMG THAT'D BE SOOOO COOL HOW COULD IT POSSIBLY BE FAKE

I'm not super interested in getting into a lot of the specifics regarding modelling and and the jiggle physics - so let's just go ahead and admit it's possible to pull off. I did see a video where someone made a video with a similar looking hat. I think I know what you're referring to.

What is the exact number you're suppose to have in debug mode? Is this something that changes or is set? If it is debug mode, it'd seem like you could change whatever you want?

I'm not sure however I'll concede #3. Nintendo's rationale with videos on youtube is inconsistent and insane. We had people convinced that #3 was the REASON KOSMOS was guaranteed about a month ago. Someone broke it down and showed that it was a mario kart flag - which makes zero sense considering there were other videos uploaded with the same content. Just for the sake of discussing this and my horrible memory. I think there were a few leaks from the 3ds era that was not taken down very quickly. Any others that we can think of?

 

[P.Kat]

The next character better come soon, because there's no way I can tolerate 5-6 months of "Byleth wasn't necessary because..." and "Here's why Byleth deserved to get in..."

It hasn't even been 3 days since the reveal and these discussions have already made me not want to hear the words "Byleth" and "Fire Emblem" for the rest of the year.

I agree. at least reveal a character, during the spring and release it at E3. With the hate she continues to get, you swear her name is synonymous with Blight.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

I'm not super interested in getting into a lot of the specifics regarding modelling and and the jiggle physics - so let's just go ahead and admit it's possible to pull off. I did see a video where someone made a video with a similar looking hat. I think I know what you're referring to.

What is the exact number you're suppose to have in debug mode? Is this something that changes or is set? If it is debug mode, it'd seem like you could change whatever you want?

I'm not sure however I'll concede #3. Nintendo's rationale with videos on youtube is inconsistent and insane. We had people convinced that #3 was the REASON KOSMOS was guaranteed about a month ago. Someone broke it down and showed that it was a mario kart flag - which makes zero sense considering there were other videos uploaded with the same content. Just for the sake of discussing this and my horrible memory. I think there were a few leaks from the 3ds era that was not taken down very quickly. Any others that we can think of?

During the Smash 4 era we had Nintendo take down the ESRB leak videos and took down livestreams of people playing the Lucas/Roy/Ryu update that accidentally went up the night before they were suppose to be revealed which resulted in hackers and dataminers leaking them to social media. But those were the only video leaks that I am aware of that happen during the Smash 4 era.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I dunno. I come back to see what's going on from year to year and it's nice to see the place still going. But I guess it's hard to stay sane and rally around a character for 10-15 years haha.

A lot of people used to view this place as the only place to really be able to mount a movement and show Sakurai and his team what characters were popular ect ect. I'm not so sure it has the same impact with twitter and other avenues.

I'm not super interested in getting into a lot of the specifics regarding modelling and and the jiggle physics - so let's just go ahead and admit it's possible to pull off. I did see a video where someone made a video with a similar looking hat. I think I know what you're referring to.

What is the exact number you're suppose to have in debug mode? Is this something that changes or is set? If it is debug mode, it'd seem like you could change whatever you want?

I'm not sure however I'll concede #3. Nintendo's rationale with videos on youtube is inconsistent and insane. We had people convinced that #3 was the REASON KOSMOS was guaranteed about a month ago. Someone broke it down and showed that it was a mario kart flag - which makes zero sense considering there were other videos uploaded with the same content. Just for the sake of discussing this and my horrible memory. I think there were a few leaks from the 3ds era that was not taken down very quickly. Any others that we can think of?

I don't remember which is which so I may be wrong on the examples, but Cacomallow had 02:30 as the remaining time whereas the Ken pic had 2:30. These are meant to be the defaults which is why debug mode would automatically go to those iirc, so how come the proven dev build gives a different number than the supposed leak?

I'll indeed conceed the KOSMOS mod being taken down for Mario Kart Tour if it was manual
The only ones that weren't taken down for the 3ds were all fakes, including that one Palutena leak which ended up being right on the character anyway

 

[Michael the Spikester]

The next character better come soon, because there's no way I can tolerate 5-6 months of "Byleth wasn't necessary because..." and "Here's why Byleth deserved to get in..."

It hasn't even been 3 days since the reveal and these discussions have already made me not want to hear the words "Byleth" and "Fire Emblem" for the rest of the year.

Well best get used to it given Sakurai's statement how its gonna take time for this DLC to come and running for two years we shouldn't expect fighter 6 until E3.

 

[RetroBro]

I will say this about Geno their hope, persistence, and stubborness despite all the odds against them will never cease to amaze me. Like they're trying to get a support character character that is only appeared in 1 spin off game that is older then Smash, all while having to deal with the factor that both Nintendo and Square own way more beloved and iconic characters then just Geno. That is the kind of stubbornness that I can at least respect to some degree.

Yeah I mean. It's old for sure no doubting that. Not to mention it was one of the last major entries on the SNES. I believe Mario 64 was actually released around the same time. So SMRPG pushing the limitations of the SNES was not nearly as impressive as it should've been. Mario 64 eclipsed that game's presence. Not to mention Square working together with Nintendo was obviously a big deal, FF was huge. It still sold with moderate success - any mario game will pretty much do that however. Not to downplay it, just saying.

There is no question that Nintendo still has plenty to pick from, Geno would still be a fun pick ---> I had mentioned in the Geno thread that Mallow would be pretty sick too. Fawful would be fun as well. Any of the original Mario RPG/Paper Mario characters would be welcome. I think its a woefully underrepresented part of Nintendo. I've said this before to people and they jump down my throat before I can even get to the 2nd or 3rd character that is an option. Why can't I like all of them?

I've seen the anti-geno movement in full action the past few years. Heck my friend and I even argue about what characters should get in all the time (we have fun with it). And he echos a lot of what I read online which always makes me lol (He's clearly trying to get under my skin). I'll admit it's some pretty cleverly veiled trolling to get a rise out of anyone who really enjoyed the game. The "support" character accusations are strange to me because the game only has a party of 5. Like Mallow and Geno are "support" characters when you've likely had them in your party for extended periods of time. Obviously you could always have peach/bowser/mario in your party exclusively after you obtain them. But prior you HAVE to use these characters and most people love them anyways. I always imagined support characters as a character like Larsa from FF12 who temporarily joins your party and leaves. Or a character that doesn't really appear very much but has a minor role in the plot. Or like bottles from Banjo Kazooie. This kinda seems like a pure misrepresentation meant to just detract from the fact that people like him - that is to say - that he isn't really important. And I'll just have to vehemently disagree.

TLDR; Super Mario RPG is ancient. There should be a character that represents Mario RPG/Paper Mario series. Geno isn't a side character.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Nobody

Absolutely nobody



I can assure you, not a single soul




Papa "I can't complain after Banjo" genos:

 

[RetroBro]

During the Smash 4 era we had Nintendo take down the ESRB leak videos and took down livestreams of people playing the Lucas/Roy/Ryu update that accidentally went up the night before they were suppose to be revealed which resulted in hackers and dataminers leaking them to social media. But those were the only video leaks that I am aware of that happen during the Smash 4 era.

This reminds me. Didn't some people get some early copies of Smash for the 3DS and stream it way earlier? I remember watching that stream for QUITE a long time.

 

[StrawHatX]

Nobody

Absolutely nobody



I can assure you, not a single soul




Papa "I can't complain after Banjo" genos:
View attachment 258675View attachment 258676

That’s pretty sad. I completely understand being disappointed in a character reveal. There’s nothing wrong with that. But the guy threw a temper tantrum for that entire 40 minute video.

And every so often he would say he couldn’t care less because he got Banjo and then immediately after raged again. Obviously he cared very much. It was pretty embarrassing to be honest.