Okay, tell me who you
1. WANT to gain the newcomer, and WHY
2. Who you THINK will get the newcomer, and WHY
3. Who are the most likely newcomers from either side
Mario Newcomer vs. Wario Newcomer
(The Mario and Spin off Stuff)
1. Mario. I'm not interest in any newcomers from Wario whereas I find the Mario choices very appealing. Toad would be awesome as would Paper Mario and I'd like Waluigi too. Bowser Jr. would be cool as unique if he's unique.
2. Mario. I believe someone said earlier (months ago, it's buried in the thread) that Sakurai did have some bias against WarioWare (even if it wasn't as much as Wario Land). If that is the case, I can't see him adding a second rep this soon, especially when most people don't care for one. Mario is by no means guarantee but lots of people want one so whoever they pick out of this bracket {Toad, Paper Mario, Bowser Jr., Waluigi} is bound to please people (and upset many others, but that's inevitable).
3. Toad from Super Mario Bros and Mona from Wario. Toad seems to be the most popular Mario rep (with Bowser Jr. not far behind) and Miyamoto does like Toad. Mona because I think she has the most potential to gain a strong fan base for her inclusion due to her importance in the WarioWare game.
Kirby Newcomer vs. Legend Of Zelda Newcomer
(The "Complete" franchises)
1. The Legend of Zelda. I would like Bandanna Dee, but Ghirahim has more to go for him in regards to potentials, so I pick a Zelda newcomer.
2. The Legend of Zelda. Kirby is Sakurai's baby and he is concern about letting his bias flow out too much with it. Zelda he doesn't face such a problem. He also planned a second Zelda newcomer in Brawl, so he may consider another Zelda newcomer again in the form of Ghirahim. However, I am also having doubts about Zelda getting a newcomer.
3. Bandanna Dee from Kirby and Ghirahim from Zelda. Both are pretty popular, which helps both. Ghirahim also has that quote in that Miyamoto wants him to be remembered. This doesn't mean Miyamoto is going to push for Ghirahim's inclusion for sure, but I could see Miyamoto consider adding Ghirahim in Smash.
Pokemon Newcomer vs. Donkey Kong Newcomer
(The Double Addition franchises)
1. Donkey Kong. The franchise earns itself two worthy newcomers in the name of King K. Rool and Dixie Kong and I find no reason why it shouldn't get at least one of those. While there are quite a few Pokemon newcomers I want (Deoxys and Genesect...), none of them have much of a shot, which is too bad (Mewtwo is a veteran, so it doesn't count).
2. Donkey Kong. I think the franchise has every reason to get a newcomer and I consider it to be the most deserving series to get one. K. Rool and Dixie have a lot going for their inclusions and I could easily see the franchise get both. Pokemon has a good chance of getting double additions as well, but I think if it came between adding Mewtwo (who I think is the most wanted newcomer) and Zoroark/6th gen, they would add Mewtwo.
3. Either 6th Gen or Zoroark from Pokemon (or Mewtwo if we're counting veterans) and King K. Rool from Donkey Kong. I can't think of any significant worries for K. Rool to face. As for Pokemon newcomers, I feel as us getting either Zoroark or 6th Gen as a newcomer is very likely, thought again, not a sure bet. Mewtwo I am confident in returning due to being one of the most wanted characters and being planned to return in Brawl (and 64 as well), making me think Sakurai wants Mewtwo as a staple of Smash.
StarFox Newcomer vs. F-Zero Newcomer
(Weird "Dead" Space Franchises)
1. Star Fox. I would love to see Krystal with her staff in Smash as she has strong move set potentials. F-zero could go either way; it could either be a ton of fun like Falcon or boring.
2. F-zero. I think both will get a newcomer, but if only one were to get one, I would say F-zero because Krystal seems unpopular in Japan and a F-zero character is popular worldwide.
3. Krystal is the only possibility from Star Fox and Samurai Goroh from F-zero, while not the guarantee rep, is still very likely the choice for that franchise. I don't understand what makes people think there are other possibilities out there (GameFAQs is guilty of this). Krystal is the only one many people would want to see whereas only a few would care for anyone else. Samurai Goroh is a popular request in the West and unlike Black Shadow, is not requested to be a clone of Captain Falcon.
Yoshi Newcomer vs. Mother Newcomer
(The no one cares about franchises)
1. Mother. I don't want a Mother rep, but Masked Man may be interesting.
2. Mother. There are at least a few newcomers that seems to be somewhat wanted from Mother, but very few wants a Yoshi newcomers.
3. Kamek from Yoshi and Masked Man from Mother. Kamek gets the majority out of the very small fan base for a second Yoshi character and Masked Man was popular pre-Brawl.
Fire Emblem Newcomer vs. Kid Icarus Newcomer
(Sakurai's Faves)
1. Kid Icarus. I want characters from both, but Palutena I think is more interesting than Krom and Roy.
2. Fire Emblem. The franchise almost got three characters in Brawl and both Krom and Roy have solid reasons to be in. Palutena seems likely, but with Sakurai's modesty, you never know.
3. Krom from Fire Emblem and Palutena from Kid Icarus. Krom is the latest lord, so he could work well as a promotion if he gets to be the lord of the next game and he could also have a large fan base for inclusion. Palutena is the most wanted Kid Icarus character and the series is named after her in Japan, making her the Zelda of the seris.
Metroid Newcomer vs. Retro/Small Franchise Newcomer
(Two most widely "accepted" to be guaranteed a new spot in the next Smash)
1. Retro/Small Franchise Newcomer. I'm not interested in Ridley (though I'd like to have Dark Samus in, but that's unlikely). Compare that to Isaac, Takamaru, Duck Hunt Dog, Lip, Ray, Chibi-Robo, and especially Saki and Mii, all of whom I want, and I would much prefer a retro/small franchise newcomer.
2. Retro/Small Franchise Newcomer. I could see Ridley getting shafted if Sakurai feels he's too difficult to make playable (an unlikely scenario), but I can't see Sakurai not adding more series.
3. Ridley from Metroid, Takamaru from Retro, and Isaac for Small Franchise Newcomer. Ridley is self-explanatory. Takamaru will likely get in if Sakurai considers the 2009 Samurai Warriors 3 game a remake. As for Isaac, I think he's most likely because he's very popular, he doesn't face the potential of Sakurai not seeing the potential in the character (like Little Mac), and there's no explanation as to why he wasn't in Brawl.
Capcom Newcomer vs Square Enix Newcomer vs Namco Newcomer
1. Capcom Newcomer. Not interested in a Namco newcomer. Square Enix newcomer would be nice if it's Crono, Slime, or Geno, but I don't care if they aren't in. A Capcom newcomer in the form of Mega Man I would absolutely love to see and is my most wanted newcomer. Mega Man is the only character aside from K. Rool I would be disappointed not to see.
2. Capcom Newcomer. Mega Man is probably in the Top 5 and Capcom has expressed interest in having Mega Man in Smash. Square Enix I could see them adding Geno if Sakurai pushes for him again due to pre-Brawl hype, but that's a very distant shot. Miyamoto may push for Pac-Man's inclusion, but not many people want him in, so I doubt it.
3. Mega Man from Capcom, Geno from Square Enix, and Pac-Man from Namco. See above.
Remember kids, hit the pitcher and you get a free score.