Warning!
Challenger Very detailed and semi-fact driven post approaching!
I have to say, normally Nintendo will add one of their newest franchises to their Smash games. But if you look at the list of Nintendo franchises, the latest one is still kinda Pikmin.
I mean there's Brain Age & Touch! Generations, but that's literally it. And aside from maybe Trauma Center, no games of those franchises stand a chance of being in Brawl.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Nintendo_franchises
So in terms of real Nintendo franchises that haven't had a playable character in a Smash title yet, we're looking at:
Animal Crossing
Custom Robo
Famicom Wars
(Advance Wars)
Golden Sun
Punch-Out!!
Sin & Punishment
Trauma Center
Wii Series
(Basically just Miis)
and...well Smash Bros itself.
(No original character from the Smash series has been playable i.e. Primids)
So for new non-3rd Party series, that's what we're looking at, people.
Sakurai did specifically mention a 50 character roster, so assuming all characters except Lucario, Ice Climbers, & maybe Ike will still exist in
some form
(looking at you Zelda series) that 13 free character slots. (assuming PT still counts as 4 & Zelda/Samus count as 2) Many people complain about the current roster, but let's face it, the Brawl roster is a VERY solid roster as far as Nintendo Reps go with very few characters that can even possibly be cut.
Sonic & Snake aren't going anywhere due to Sega & Konami's extremely close ties to Nintendo. I'm sure Capcom's going to get in on Smash with either Mega Man or Ryu because they're just as close as Sega if not closer.
(Just looks at all the Mega Man games in the past years) Smash & Capcom's fighters have never exactly clashed as far as sales go due to their vastly different audiences so I can't see much of a reason they wouldn't participate.
My assumption as far as Nintendo characters go is that Golden Sun will get Issac as a rep, Punch-Out!! may get Little Mac as a rep, and Sin & Punishment may get a rep as well, but that's about it for new Nintendo franchises to the series. Animal Crossing's humans are far too customizable and that's always been their appeal and it just wouldn't be anywhere near as personal with preset Smash costumes. Same goes for Miis since team costumes mean that a Mii will have to either have at least 3 costumes per Mii which is just a little too much. And if it's set to just use one Mii, it kind of takes the point out of the character in multiplayer as your friends that main Mii will have to play as your Mii. Custom Robos are just far too small to be a character and again you lose the "Custom" from Custom Robo if you just use one model. I can see a commander from Advance Wars being in game as a character that has sort of a nerfed, but permanent Super Scope for a gun, but it's a little unlikely.
Now for new characters for returning franchises I'm basically thinking:
- Zoroark or Emolga
(Replacing Lucario)
- New Fire Emblem Character.
(I don't know enough about FE to know if Ike's still the new kid on the block)
- King K.Rool
- Zelda: Skyward Sword Villain
(Assuming it's not Ganondorf)
- Paper Mario
- Prince Fluff
(Kirby Franchise)
Add the New Franchises & 3rd Party characters I mentioned earlier:
- Issac
(Golden Sun)
- Little Mac
(Punch-Out!!)
- Isa Amamiya
(Sin & Punishment ; Saki's Son)
- Mega Man or Ryu
(Capcom)
That's only 10 characters, but that's just how solid the Smash roster is already. Most of the characters that DESERVE to be in Smash 4 are already in Brawl. Gotta give Sakurai credit there.
Not going to get into Stages since Sakurai was talking about
doubling the stage roster making it...freaking crazy, but there ya go. That's my educated assumption on the Smash 4 character roster.