Zalak
Smash Lord
I'm gonna stand down about my NK analysis for now, but it's something to considered. After this post,
I've really started to think my accusation was spot on.
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Mini Game | Werewolves win
- Thread starter ~ Gheb ~
- Start date
Zalak
Smash Lord
As I stated earlier, you and Slick were the only ones who were basically guaranteed to benefit from Kary's death. WHILE I EXPLAIN THIS, it's important to remember that the ENTIRE REASON RadicalRat got himself killed was so we would listen to his reads. I don't know about you, but I like to honor the requests of someone who does that, at least to an extent.
NOW, if a werewolf were to have killed Kary, what would have happened? Kary flips townie? BLAM! RadicalRat was wrong the WHOLE TIME! We have less of a reason to suspect anyone on his list, including the werewolves. Kary flips mafia? BLAM! Better investigate those connected to Kary, starting with ThatSmasher and J.
It doesn't just stop there though. Every other player would have had a good chance of hindering themselves if they killed Kary. If someone who wasn't suspected of anything by Rad killed Kary, they would be losing a good scapegoat either way. Plus, if Kary flipped town, Rad would lose his credibility, and they would lose a bunch of easy scapegoat targets.On the other hand, If someone whom Rad accused of being mafia were to have killed Kary, there was a chance Kary would flip mafia, making them look awfully suspicious.
I 100% stand by that reasoning, but I now have an additional reason to believe at least one of you is a Werewolf.
IT
ALMOST
FEELS.......
opportunistic...............
NOW, if a werewolf were to have killed Kary, what would have happened? Kary flips townie? BLAM! RadicalRat was wrong the WHOLE TIME! We have less of a reason to suspect anyone on his list, including the werewolves. Kary flips mafia? BLAM! Better investigate those connected to Kary, starting with ThatSmasher and J.
It doesn't just stop there though. Every other player would have had a good chance of hindering themselves if they killed Kary. If someone who wasn't suspected of anything by Rad killed Kary, they would be losing a good scapegoat either way. Plus, if Kary flipped town, Rad would lose his credibility, and they would lose a bunch of easy scapegoat targets.On the other hand, If someone whom Rad accused of being mafia were to have killed Kary, there was a chance Kary would flip mafia, making them look awfully suspicious.
I 100% stand by that reasoning, but I now have an additional reason to believe at least one of you is a Werewolf.
You each accused the other after I posted this. You accused Slick upon reading my post, and Slick accused you right after you accused him. I'm not entirely sure how to explain it, but this doesn't feel TvT to me at all. Your interactions in this game have been too wonky so far for that to be the case. I'm not sure how to feel about Slick, but I agree with him that you jumped onto this too quickly, accusing him right at the get go.
IT
ALMOST
FEELS.......
opportunistic...............
Zalak
Smash Lord
anyways, I'm gonna leave again. for now, i'll only post when someone @s me. I'll probably start posting regularly again later today/tomorrow (IRL)
Right, I understand the reasoning about it benefiting me/slick to kill Kary if we were the werewolves. I agree with that.
However, that does not make me a werewolf. I know I'm a townie. You don't believe me, but meh. because your reasoning is sound, I voted for Slick. Simple.
Zalak
Smash Lord
If I'm gonna be completely legit with you, AT FIRST, I didn't think you were bad for voting Slick, as I thought my reasoning was 100% solid. AFTERWARDS THOUGH, everyone questioned my theory except for you, and that's when I started to worry, but I suppose it's a little unfair of me to say that while I still wholly believe in my theory.
As the IC, I'll say something.
WIFOM is not a credible source of evidence and also something that should not be used to support a case. However, WIFOM can start a conversation, however, it is faulty logic inherently.
Occam's Razor is usually a good way to deduce things by looking at the simplest solution being the right one. Most mafia games hosted here have a hard time with that regarding set-up shenanigans. But using the simplest logical solution can be resourceful and lead to helpful answers.
WIFOM is not a credible source of evidence and also something that should not be used to support a case. However, WIFOM can start a conversation, however, it is faulty logic inherently.
Occam's Razor is usually a good way to deduce things by looking at the simplest solution being the right one. Most mafia games hosted here have a hard time with that regarding set-up shenanigans. But using the simplest logical solution can be resourceful and lead to helpful answers.
SlickWylde
Smash Champion
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I completely disagree with Zalak's theory. If I wasn't one of the ones being accused in that theory, I would have just ignored it. It feels like one of those things that someone says, and it COULD make sense, but they try to act like it's the only option that makes sense, which is not true.
I will decide who I'm voting for sometime today. I don't have a lot of time to vote right this second.
I will decide who I'm voting for sometime today. I don't have a lot of time to vote right this second.
Wine In Front Of Me. Based on the situation from Princess Bride, basically circular reasoning where you could say "Someone is [insert role here] because they [insert action here]", but that is faulty reasoning for claiming someone to be of a certain faction because the person could have been doing that to invoke that reaction and make people misread him/her, or s/he could have been doing that action genuinely. Basically, what J was saying is that's no reason to put a scum/town read on someone, but it can start good conversation that can lead to more scumhunting and eventually you can get a lean from that (or a good read if the other person slips).
If that didn't make sense, look it up on Mafiascum.
TheKingofKoopas
Smash Journeyman
Vote: *GenericHandle*
I don't like the theory about a Generic + Slick team up. It's too complicated, especially when Kary could've easily been killed because she was IC. As much as I find the theory itself weird, I find Generic's jump on it even weirder. It looks opportunistic.
I don't like the theory about a Generic + Slick team up. It's too complicated, especially when Kary could've easily been killed because she was IC. As much as I find the theory itself weird, I find Generic's jump on it even weirder. It looks opportunistic.
Maybe... Do you think the whole Zalak-Generic fight/interaction thing was staged to make them appear to be different teams if one gets caught?
RosalinaSGS
Smash Ace
Right, **** this.
Occam's Razor sucks. You can't judge something just by the number of assumptions you have to make. You gotta look at what's actually probable. You've gotta look at how much of a stretch each assumption is. If they were just afraid of ICs, they should have targeted J, because no one had beef with J, and he was bound to start posting eventually. Kary on the other hand was barely posting, and was a prime lynch target for many players. My theory isn't convoluted, it's just what makes sense.
SEE, my thinking is that the werewolves had two entire days to think about who they wanted to kill, and if they were going to choose Kary I see no reason not to believe they would have considered what might have happened if Kary flipped town/maf.
Vote: Zalak
RosalinaSGS
Smash Ace
Do you have anything other than the NK? Because anyone could say they were WIFOMing to make you suspect those two. etc. etc. etc. (NK analysis sucks.)
From what I see, you're saying one of those two are WW. That is almost a meaningless statement. For most purposes, WW = scum. And I could choose any two slots and have a pretty good chance that one of them are scum.
RosalinaSGS
Smash Ace
Generic's jump on it? Can you quote it?
eh I did jump on it, or at least it looks that way. However, I actually worked through Zalak's logic myself before he posted.
RosalinaSGS
Smash Ace
@
TheKingofKoopas
Oh right. Nvm, I get it.
Reads:
Zalak: Scum, but tbh I want him dead even if he's doc. His NK analysis is really ticking me off.
Generic: Scum, but not as scum as Zalak
RR: Hmm... null Hasn't posted enough yet. I guess scum lean for inactivity.
Orbo: same as before: neutral
J: town lean. He's agreed with me on lots of stuff, and I can't find fault with him. But not a lot of other stuff to really convince me.
Koops: Town. Good content. Like Slick but not so town.
Slick: Strong town lean.
Everyone else: null
TheKingofKoopas
Oh right. Nvm, I get it.Reads:
Zalak: Scum, but tbh I want him dead even if he's doc. His NK analysis is really ticking me off.
Generic: Scum, but not as scum as Zalak
RR: Hmm... null Hasn't posted enough yet. I guess scum lean for inactivity.
Orbo: same as before: neutral
J: town lean. He's agreed with me on lots of stuff, and I can't find fault with him. But not a lot of other stuff to really convince me.
Koops: Town. Good content. Like Slick but not so town.
Slick: Strong town lean.
Everyone else: null
That's true. There's, what, 5 scum and 6 town left?
RosalinaSGS
Smash Ace
This is the most recent votecount.Newbie Tip:
One of the most common power roles in mafia games is the "roleblocker". Not only do roleblocking abilities appear in almost all mafia games in some way but they can also be given to players of any alignment. As the name indicates, the roleblocker has the ability to prevent his or her target(s) from using a Night Action for one Night Phase [on rare occasions they can block players for more than one Night Phase]. For various reasons the roleblocker is an inherently balanced role. First, since roleblockers can be mafia, town or 3rd party a roleblocker claim never quite clears any player, neither the roleblocker himself nor any of the players affected by it. Second, the roleblocking ability is only as good as its user is. And third, while roleblocking somebody can lead to good results [ie preventing a mafioso from carrying out his Night Kill] it can also backfire if you use it against the wrong player [ie preventing your Doc from protecting a power role]. In either case, whenever you play in a closed setup, you should always be aware that a roleblocke is likely present.
Votecount:
~~~
Not voting: *GenericHandle*, SlickWylde, RosalinaSGS, Red Ryu, TheKingofKoopasVoted | Voters | Votes
Orboknown | Spak, GreenReaperGod | 2 / 6
Spak | #HBC J | 1 / 6
*GenericHandle* | Zalak | 1 / 6
GreenReaperGod | Orboknown | 1 / 6
IT IS NOT THE CURRENT VOTES. JUST A ROUGH ESTIMATE.
RosalinaSGS
Smash Ace
@GreenReaperGod Haven't heard from you recently. Who's town, who's scum, who are you voting for Today?
@
Orboknown
too
@
Orboknown
tooIf everyone had that mentality, that would be a SUPER easy way for Scum to get off the hook.
Eh, I trust people enough to give them passes for real life obligations, mister 9874 honors classes.
Orboknown
Smash Hero
**** everything i jist read, god i hate replacing sometimes
i like rosa. I like slick
im on the same page as j, which isnt saying much but is probably better than worse
generic has left an open stance on just about everything, and is trying so hard to play both sides of arguments
zalek is overreaching on the littlest things to frame people.
Spaks solid
ryu should post more (you show me your town ill show you mine mate)
Uhhhh
anyone missing i dont care to remember right now
i like rosa. I like slick
im on the same page as j, which isnt saying much but is probably better than worse
generic has left an open stance on just about everything, and is trying so hard to play both sides of arguments
zalek is overreaching on the littlest things to frame people.
Spaks solid
ryu should post more (you show me your town ill show you mine mate)
Uhhhh
anyone missing i dont care to remember right now
Orboknown
Smash Hero
Ftr i was reading on and off throughout the day
Zalak
Smash Lord
i'm back, baby.
............. though my vote was already on Generic.
The game was moving slowly, so I decided to look at the past. I remembered that I kinda just glanced over Kary's death without thinking about it, so I decided to finally think about it.
so i'm gonna ask one more time, do you actually think i'm wrong??? y'all seem to be ignoring the fact that Kary was suspicious as when the WWs killed them. I'm not even trying to use it as decisive proof, I just threw it out there cuz we all sort of assumed Kary was killed for being and IC, which I now think is extremely unlikely.
what did i do? do either of you actually think i'm wrong? man, all I did was put myself in the shoes of the werewolves and work out who was likely to kill kary. i didn't even change my vote because of it ....
.............
though my vote was already on Generic. The game was moving slowly, so I decided to look at the past. I remembered that I kinda just glanced over Kary's death without thinking about it, so I decided to finally think about it.
so i'm gonna ask one more time, do you actually think i'm wrong??? y'all seem to be ignoring the fact that Kary was suspicious as
when the WWs killed them. I'm not even trying to use it as decisive proof, I just threw it out there cuz we all sort of assumed Kary was killed for being and IC, which I now think is extremely unlikely. everyone is kinda reserved in this game so i kinda have to look deep to actually get anywhere.
Zalak
Smash Lord
so I no longer think Slick + Generic is a team. Their argument was too legit for me, and I feel like it would be incredibly dangerous to throw each other into the spotlight like that if their argument was (same faction) SvS.
Orboknown
Smash Hero
Kary could have been killedbecause ic
he could have been milled because its hard to manipulate him
he could have been killed because hes suspicious and itd cut off an avenue of towns direction
he could have been killed because they thought he was maf and ww needs to kill maf offnjust like town does because mafia wins a tie with ww in lylo (iirc JR works like that, 2v2 goes to mafia)
Also, you can't onemanarmy thread into activity. It clutters thread, makes ot hell to read through, and it actually lets scum sot back and let you thought ram yourself into walls while they do nothing/minimalist
he could have been milled because its hard to manipulate him
he could have been killed because hes suspicious and itd cut off an avenue of towns direction
he could have been killed because they thought he was maf and ww needs to kill maf offnjust like town does because mafia wins a tie with ww in lylo (iirc JR works like that, 2v2 goes to mafia)
Also, you can't onemanarmy thread into activity. It clutters thread, makes ot hell to read through, and it actually lets scum sot back and let you thought ram yourself into walls while they do nothing/minimalist
Zalak
Smash Lord
wait, but the WWs can kill, so why would the mafia win? also, wouldn't gheb have specified that in the rules?
i'll admit that I have a bad habit of doing that, but in this case I got plenty of people talking, so i'll call it a success.
Orboknown
Smash Hero
It says in the bottom of the roles
in an endgame scenario the mafia win condition takes priority over the others
or something like that. Its a bone to the mafia team in jungle republic in exchange for not being able to kill
in an endgame scenario the mafia win condition takes priority over the others
or something like that. Its a bone to the mafia team in jungle republic in exchange for not being able to kill
Zalak
Smash Lord
okay, i get how that would work in a 2v2 for TvM, but I still don't buy that a WW couldn't just kill the mafia
@
~ Gheb ~
?? ?? ??? ????well, in any case, the WWs could be acting under that BELIEF, so I suppose you're right but
ergh I mean Kary was on the chopping block anyway, so I just don't think that's likely. I get that there are other possibilities, but my gut tells me my theory is easily the MOST likely. every mafia game i've lost (as town) has been partially due to the fact that i didn't trust my instincts, and I have such a strong feeling about this one.
like, filmcow mafia, I called Adum out so early on for his pre-mature town-read on me, but everyone said "nah zalak, that's not right. ya better calm down". I WAS RIGHT THOUGH, and that was like one of the only big clues Adum left.
AND IN GHEB'S CRAZY AUCTION MAFIA:
Laundry thought he had confirmed Jay as mafia cuz he RBed him, and there was no kill, but I thought the mafia just didn't send in a kill, and I WAS RIGHT. Admittedly, the mafia CLAIMS they just forgot to nightkill, but it was frustrating nonetheless.
anyways, i'm not going to lose for that reason in this game. there is a werewolf among slick and generic, I'm sure of it.
Orboknown
Smash Hero
There might be
but not for convoluted NK analysis
but not for convoluted NK analysis
Zalak
Smash Lord
anyways, i'll step down again for now, but my votes gonna be on either Generic or Slick at the end of the day unless something crazy gets uncovered.