Masked Marauders - Skull Kid For Smash! Night of the Last Day.

[Jigglymaster]

The only one of those I think is getting a unique character is Pokemon.

I'd find it weird to get another Xenoblade character and have Gaur Plains as the only stage.

And I don't see a third party franchise getting a unique second character, the most Sonic would get is Shadow as an echo. And music has tied into echo reveals at all. We got Dark Samus after Metroid music was on the website.

How can you be so sure about that, regarding Sonic? There's no rule in place that says they can't have a unique character, and if anything Isabelle showed us that semi-clones are still a thing. Shadow or Tails could easily take that spot. You're absolutely right about the echo fighter thing, what with echos not being tied to new music. But the thing is, Sonic doesn't have music on the website yet so none of that matters. If they get music on the website before a character reveal, then sure, echo fighter Shadow is probably what will happen. But we don't know that yet.

Elma is also a likely candidate for Xenoblade, and I think she could work just fine without a new stage. Her world isn't exactly the most iconic. This is coming from somebody who doesn't even like/want her in the game.

 

[ActualGarbage]

another Xenoblade character

This is always a good excuse to bust out the phrase "literally who".

 

[NintenRob]

How can you be so sure about that, regarding Sonic? There's no rule in place that says they can't have a unique character, and if anything Isabelle showed us that semi-clones are still a thing. Shadow or Tails could easily take that spot. You're absolutely right about the echo fighter thing, what with echos not being tied to new music. But the thing is, Sonic doesn't have music on the website yet so none of that matters. If they get music on the website before a character reveal, then sure, echo fighter Shadow is probably what will happen. But we don't know that yet.

Elma is also a likely candidate for Xenoblade, and I think she could work just fine without a new stage. Her world isn't exactly the most iconic. This is coming from somebody who doesn't even like/want her in the game.

Let's just keep it at, I disagree with you.

This is always a good excuse to bust out the phrase "literally who".

You won't see me say that, while I don't expect a newcomer, I love Xenoblade and would love to be wrong about a character. Although I'd rather Rex and Pyra and Xenoblade 2 content in general

 

[Jigglymaster]

Fair enough. I’ve shared some of the info I wanted to share but I’ll back out of here now. Ive never really been a fan of invading other character topics that I don’t really support. I feel like it comes off as a bit intrusive and rude and i apologize for that if it came off that way.

Just wanted to get some counterpoints to see how strong my theories truely held up. Thanks for the responses though!

 

[ActualGarbage]

You won't see me say that, while I don't expect a newcomer, I love Xenoblade and would love to be wrong about a character. Although I'd rather Rex and Pyra and Xenoblade 2 content in general

I mean, I do fully expect Rex and Pyra to get into the game, but only as DLC. I will be absolutely dumbfounded if they get in as part of the base roster.

 

[Xevious 1]

Kind of ironic when a big portion of Skull Kid's fanbase came from Loz's leak

Choose to not believe the leaks if you want to, some people are like that. Doesn't matter how many times a leaker get things right, they'll never believe it. Ridley, No Cuts, Ice Climbers, Snake, Simon, Isabelle....

I laughed at the idea of Ridley/Simon when the rumors first came out, thought nothing of it. But you can win me over with correct predictions. He's done enough for me to believe him.

"Not to mention that some of the more accurate leaks could actually be made by Nintendo. So a leak might be accurate about a bunch of characters who are confirmed and get obscure characters no one expected right, only for later to have characters not in the leak be in the game and some of the "leaked" characters turn out not to be in the game. It generates discussion and it purposely misleads people by playing with their expectations. "

Again, it sort of feels like you're talking about your own character here. What with a certain somebody having to lay low because Skull Kid was apparently made as a trap to catch leakers.

EDIT: Vergeben's Pokemon prediction also lines up with the fact that we haven't gotten a Pokemon song yet on the website. I mean sure, you can ignore the Vergeben stuff if you want, but there's also the music to consider.

Gematsu leak in Smash 4 was really accurate (predicted Wii Fit Trainer!) except that Chrom and Chorus Kids were not playable while Robin, Rosalina, Lucina, Bowser Jr, and Duck Hunt were.

People are believing in Skull Kid mainly because of his AT no show, Sakurai knowing his popularity when revealing him as AT in 4, YL missing final smash, and he makes the most sense out of any Zelda newcomer due to his popularity.

Verg's leaks seam similar to the Gematsu one. Doesn't mention all the leaks at once and spreads them out, has a character confirmed that wasn't in the leaks (like Rosalina in 4 and K. Rool in Ult), is vague with some characters (X/Y Pokemon in 4, Sun and Moon Pokemon in Ult, not mentioning if Isabelle was an echo or unique). Wouldn't be surprised if these were done by Nintendo on purpose.

Just don't put stock in a character being in or not being in because of a "leak".

 

[NintenRob]

I'm getting the impression that morale might be a little low after the recent reveal. But I assure you that you have no reason to have doubts, if anything Isabelle helps Skull Kid.


We never needed a leak to believe Skull Kid was in, he just helped give him some much needed attention. And the chair theory was always dumb.


What we have left is still an incredibly popular and iconic character who comes from one of the most popular games and impact is still felt and includes one of the most iconic and recognisable objects in Zelda history.

Top on the following

Kapp'n assist trophy seemingly replacing Isabelle, and was also popular enough to recognition with a Mii outfit without relying on the ballot which he likely lacked

Let me rephrase that

Moon assist trophy seemingly replacing Skull Kid, and was also popular enough to recognition with a Mii outfit without relying on the ballot which she likely lacked



Skull Kid is pretty much in the same situation as Isabelle was.


Cheer up Masked Marauders, Stand Strong! Cause we're gonna see this through to the end and we're getting Skull Kid in Smash!!!!

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I'm getting the impression that morale might be a little low after the recent reveal. But I assure you that you have no reason to have doubts, if anything Isabelle helps Skull Kid.


We never needed a leak to believe Skull Kid was in, he just helped give him some much needed attention. And the chair theory was always dumb.


What we have left is still an incredibly popular and iconic character who comes from one of the most popular games and impact is still felt and includes one of the most iconic and recognisable objects in Zelda history.

Top on the following

Kapp'n assist trophy seemingly replacing Isabelle, and was also popular enough to recognition with a Mii outfit without relying on the ballot which he likely lacked

Let me rephrase that

Moon assist trophy seemingly replacing Skull Kid, and was also popular enough to recognition with a Mii outfit without relying on the ballot which she likely lacked



Skull Kid is pretty much in the same situation as Isabelle was.


Cheer up Masked Marauders, Stand Strong! Cause we're gonna see this through to the end and we're getting Skull Kid in Smash!!!!

Here’s another point

The costume theory

Skull kid had a costume after the ballot started

And you know who else had a costume and Isabelle

And for a bonus black knight as well

 

[SamDunk]

Personally the fact that she's a newcomer bodes poorly for Skull Kid, considering that IMO he's lower on the priority list for Nintendo. Characters like Banjo, Geno, a new Pokemon rep are all bigger concerns for Nintendo than Skull Kid, whether people want to admit it or not. Newcomers are at a premium if we take Sakurai's word, and it seems like to get in you either need to have a GIGANTIC fanbase or be important to your series in some way. Hell even the echoes were big names in the community, except for maybe Dark Samus (which we don't know how well she did on the ballot, same with SK).

People mention the fact that Isabelle wasn't popular on the ballot as more support for Skull Kid sure, but what you neglect to mention is that SHE IS THE FACE OF HER SERIES. I'd argue her inclusion actually makes characters like Skull Kid, Isaac and even something like Karate Joe less likely, because it gives further insight into how characters are being chosen this Smash game. And Isaac's fanbase dwarfs ours.

I don't want to be that guy and kill the hype too soon because I could be completely wrong (and I'd love it) but tone down your expectations everyone. I'm definitely not saying he's over and that we should just get ready for dlc, but boss status is looking like a possibility at the moment.

I have no doubt our next chance will be October, but if he doesn't show up then I think alarm bells should be going off.

There's no really decent way of knowing who did well in the ballot and who didn't. All the polls for something like this are completely unscientific; I don't think I saw any that had Simon Belmont very high.

The only real methods we can use at this point for predicting characters are listening to credible leaks like Vergeben (who himself admitted that he is not telling us everything he knows) and looking at the evidence shown so far. Isabelle's assist trophy was missing, and then she was confirmed. The Klaptrap assist trophy was shown off, and then K Rool was confirmed.

Again, I have no emotional attachment to Skull Kid. I just think the evidence towards him being playable is stronger than almost any other characters in speculation (I would only put the Vergeben characters and maybe Shadow above him). It's fine to keep expectations in check, I'm just a little surprised to see people jumping ship after the reveal of a character that most people expected anyway.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Here’s another point

The costume theory

Skull kid had a costume after the ballot started

And you know who else had a costume and Isabelle

And for a bonus black knight as well

Oh good, Ashley and Takamaru are gonna be playable!

Sorry, I had to. Still, there probably is gonna be some correlation between who got costumes and who’s getting at least a role in the game. While Skull Kid didn’t get a full costume, the mask did get in, and was pre ballot to boot.

I think the best piece of evidence is the Moon right now. The more I think about it, the more interesting it is - everything Zelda in the game now seems to come from a different game, so having two Majorams Mask assists seems redundant. And cutting Skull Kid wholesale seems like a strange decision - it’d have been easy enough to include Skull Kid in the Moon assist (i.e. summon him and he calls the moon down), but they didn’t...

Still I am hoping that some aspects of the Mii costume theory hold for some characters at least (Tails, please)

 

[Kensho]

Just coming in here to say that I fully expected Skull Kid and Bandanna Dee to not show up today. Why? Because their franchises already have songs on the website.

https://twitter.com/Dapuffster/status/1040086962508623873

Instead, we got a newcomer from a franchise that DOESN'T have music on the website, just like I predicted. In the three months that this website has been up, there has NOT been a single repeating franchise when it comes to Website music. This was also true in Brawl's Dojo.

Now we just wait to see if Animal Crossing gets music next week (which it probably last week's scheduled music since it was skipped over). If that's the case, I don't think things are looking good for Skull Kid. He's gonna have to break that pattern of either having a repeating franchise song on the website or not come with music as a newcomer. Sure, you could say the same thing for Ridley and Inkling, but both of them were revealed before the website even went up. This applies to K.Rool, Simon, and most likely Isabelle next week.

I think out of the two, he's more likely than Bandanna Dee but... I wouldn't get your hopes up too much.

EDIT: Additionally, while I think Skull Kid will probably not make it into the base game, I think you guys easily have one of the strongest fanbases currently, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets added on as DLC.

You make so many assumptions about "spots" and the blog... We know nothing about neither how the website is coded (there are tons of missing spots and there were missing spots even before, web coding can get messy and people made too much of a point of this)

You are holding onto conspiracy theory level stuff.

I do believe the Isabelle reveal changes nothing in terms of chances for characters, except that some we expected to be echoes might be semiclones, but again, not being an echo DOESNT MEAN they take as much development time and that they take a "spot" from other newcomers. Sakurai never ever referred to characters in smash filling up spots, he has the characters planned from 2015 and is choosing to show them very slowly.

For the same reason I don't think fan support in forums and things like that is gonna change anything, but Geno I do consider a lock, because Sakurai KNOWS and his Mii costume trailer was built as a newcomer reveal trailer, basically. And look at all the square love at Nintendo, with 10 final fantasy games coming (and super mario rpg was in the Snes classic, which came out last year, meaning the rights were paid for for that at least!!)


Anyway sorry for rambling. Skull Kid, I still believe in you beautiful *******.

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

Honestly; Isabelle just proves ballot vote's aren't everything. Some people detracted Skull Kid cause he wouldn't score high on the poll due to already having an assist trophy. Guess who else got in and was an assist trophy in Smash 4? Isabelle.

 

[cybersai]

Between Incineroar, and the possibility of Geno or Dixie, I do think Skull Kid has lower chances. I honestly put him on the same level as Isaac now, they could go either way. Geno only has a leg up due to Sakurai wanting him and making a big deal out of his Mii costume last time, and the rumor of a Square rep being added.

As I said if he's a boss or we don't get him, at least all this support pushed him to the forefront of Zelda reps. We can turn him into the next Ridley/K. Rool for DLC.

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

I know this is a contested opinion; but am I really the only person who doesn't think we'll get a mon in the base roster? I dunno man; we kind of got three mon's if we count previously cut veterans.

 

[cybersai]

I know this is a contested opinion; but am I really the only person who doesn't think we'll get a mon in the base roster? I dunno man; we kind of got three mon's if we count previously cut veterans.

Pokemon is just too popular, and a Gen 7 pokemon is rumored from the start. Pokemon is like the one franchise you can always expect a newcomer every game.

 

[mynameisBlade]

I'm getting the impression that morale might be a little low after the recent reveal. But I assure you that you have no reason to have doubts, if anything Isabelle helps Skull Kid.


We never needed a leak to believe Skull Kid was in, he just helped give him some much needed attention. And the chair theory was always dumb.


What we have left is still an incredibly popular and iconic character who comes from one of the most popular games and impact is still felt and includes one of the most iconic and recognisable objects in Zelda history.

Top on the following

Kapp'n assist trophy seemingly replacing Isabelle, and was also popular enough to recognition with a Mii outfit without relying on the ballot which he likely lacked

Let me rephrase that

Moon assist trophy seemingly replacing Skull Kid, and was also popular enough to recognition with a Mii outfit without relying on the ballot which she likely lacked



Skull Kid is pretty much in the same situation as Isabelle was.


Cheer up Masked Marauders, Stand Strong! Cause we're gonna see this through to the end and we're getting Skull Kid in Smash!!!!

This. Skull Kid is so iconic. I can't see him not getting in. Had the Mii outfit and the AT is nowhere in sight. I'm more worried for Isaac than I am Skull Kid.

 

[AnOkayDM]

There has never been a Smash game where we didn't get a new Pokémon character. I don't think this one is gonna buck that trend.

 

[Carticas]

I'm praying

 

[Potato_]

Geno is a nobody, Sakurai may like him but he's not recognizable in the gaming community as a whole. And as much as I love Banjo he hasn't been around lately (last game came out 10 years ago). The only exception to your statement is Pokemon of course, the ever popular franchise. So I think it's funny that you seem so sure about what Nintendo considers a priority.

Well I didn't say Skull Kid is a lock. I've been down this road before I know how it is. And I agree you can make the same case for him, although he has had several cameos in different games- there's also the remake in the 3DS and Hyrule Warriors.

I just think it's funny how the guy I quoted talked as if he were a Nintendo spokesperson LOL

There's no really decent way of knowing who did well in the ballot and who didn't. All the polls for something like this are completely unscientific; I don't think I saw any that had Simon Belmont very high.

The only real methods we can use at this point for predicting characters are listening to credible leaks like Vergeben (who himself admitted that he is not telling us everything he knows) and looking at the evidence shown so far. Isabelle's assist trophy was missing, and then she was confirmed. The Klaptrap assist trophy was shown off, and then K Rool was confirmed.

Again, I have no emotional attachment to Skull Kid. I just think the evidence towards him being playable is stronger than almost any other characters in speculation (I would only put the Vergeben characters and maybe Shadow above him). It's fine to keep expectations in check, I'm just a little surprised to see people jumping ship after the reveal of a character that most people expected anyway.

Alrighty,I'm just gonna clarify my comment a bit more. And before I write this I'll admit that I was in poor spirits about SK's chances yesterday due to the fact that Isabelle was considered a newcomer. Take from that what you will. Also I agree that online polls don't tell the whole story in the slightest. Dark Samus is an example of that.

Geno is a nobody outside of Smash. He is HUGE inside Smash. That is one of the ways characters are getting picked this game, it's obvious. K.Rool would not be a character otherwise.
Banjo has been dead for 10 years basically (Nuts and Bolts doesn't count), yet people still know him. Once again, he is also HUGE inside Smash.

Skull Kid has a dedicated fanbase and people who are "meh" on him. His clamour in the Smash community does not reach anywhere close to Geno, Banjo or even Isaac for that matter. This is what concerns me. If we're picking based on Smash popularity, there are a few people ahead of him.

If we are picking based on general public appeal, he MIGHT have a better chance purely due to the Mask's iconic status, but I don't know if that would be enough for Nintendo to make SKULL KID THE CHARACTER playable. No, I'm not trying to be a Nintendo spokesperson, I'm just guessing.

If the mask is the real iconic part, they can just make MM a boss and that's it. That's what concerns me. It comes down to how much of a priority does Nintendo really see him as? Would they give dev time towards making him playable over Banjo Kazooie? Geno? Issac? A Pokemon rep? Or would they decide that boss status just works better? And to add context to it, I'm no longer confident in Isaac's chances either.

Costume theory does not prove he will be playable either (Zero and Takamaru say hi). It just makes it incredibly likely that he's in the game in some capacity.

The real thing SK has going for him is the missing AT. That hasn't changed. I'm just saying we should keep expectations low, people all over were acting like SK was a lock, and as a Ridley fan I know firsthand how badly that can end up.

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

There has never been a Smash game where we didn't get a new Pokémon character. I don't think this one is gonna buck that trend.

While patterns play a part in Smash Speculation; absolutely, if any Smash were to break expectations it would be Ultimate.

 

[Cap’nKazam]

I think Skull Kid has a few more things going for him aside from the Moon assist trophy. His popularity prior to Brawl was huge enough to be mentioned by Sakurai himself when he got assist'd. I've seen him consistently outperform every other Zelda contender on fan ballots. He won the VGTribune poll against the likes of Isaac and Megaman with over a million votes cast. His own game got remade around the same time as SSBU roster was being finalized, and got into Hyrule Warriors around the same time as well purely because of fan demand. Great Bay and Termina Field track have played a strong role in Ultimate's advertising, and Young Link's final smash has yet to be revealed. I also don't understand why people on here are so quick to dismiss the chairs theory, as Sakurai was clearly hinting at K Rool with the office decor in the previous video (who puts a rope ladder and barrel in their office like that?). That Sakurai teases characters with office decor is already an almost sure thing, and that decor in the most recent direct looks a really flipping lot like it belongs to something Skull Kid (especially with that owl statue looking thing). That two assist trophies have already been promoted to fighters is another good mark in Skull Kid's corner. Leak or not, I don't think his chances have really diminished at all since last Direct.

I'm going to wait for the next direct before I reassess his chances. Until then, I'm putting Skull Kid at 75% likely playable, based on what we currently know.

Also, bumping this question from a little earlier:
Has Sakurai made any comments about Zelda's representation in Smash Bros since WiiU or Brawl? I keep hearing about statements he's made acknowledging fan demand for Zelda newcomers or how the series has been a little neglected, although I haven't been able to locate it just yet. Anyone able to point me in the right direction?

 

[AnOkayDM]

While patterns play a part in Smash Speculation; absolutely, if any Smash was to break expectations it would be Ultimate.

Perhaps, but I don't believe for a second that we'll ever get a Smash game without a new Pokémon character. Multiple Pokémon games come out in between each Smash game, it's one of Nintendo's most popular franchises, and it constantly gets new characters to choose from. It's too big to ignore.

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

Perhaps, but I don't believe for a second that we'll ever get a Smash game without a new Pokémon character. Multiple Pokémon games come out in between each Smash game, it's one of Nintendo's most popular franchises, and it constantly gets new characters to choose from. It's too big to ignore.

I mean I think a gen seven rep will be first in line for DLC! Just not base roster imo.

 

[CleverDan]

While patterns play a part in Smash Speculation; absolutely, if any Smash were to break expectations it would be Ultimate.

Agreed. That applies to retro fighters as well as Pokémon. This is an unusual development cycle too, with a shorter development cycle, fewer newcomers, and Smash Ballot influences.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Alrighty,I'm just gonna clarify my comment a bit more. And before I write this I'll admit that I was in poor spirits about SK's chances yesterday due to the fact that Isabelle was considered a newcomer. Take from that what you will. Also I agree that online polls don't tell the whole story in the slightest. Dark Samus is an example of that.

Geno is a nobody outside of Smash. He is HUGE inside Smash. That is one of the ways characters are getting picked this game, it's obvious. K.Rool would not be a character otherwise.
Banjo has been dead for 10 years basically (Nuts and Bolts doesn't count), yet people still know him. Once again, he is also HUGE inside Smash.

Skull Kid has a dedicated fanbase and people who are "meh" on him. His clamour in the Smash community does not reach anywhere close to Geno, Banjo or even Isaac for that matter. This is what concerns me. If we're picking based on Smash popularity, there are a few people ahead of him.

If we are picking based on general public appeal, he MIGHT have a better chance purely due to the Mask's iconic status, but I don't know if that would be enough for Nintendo to make SKULL KID THE CHARACTER playable. No, I'm not trying to be a Nintendo spokesperson, I'm just guessing.

If the mask is the real iconic part, they can just make MM a boss and that's it. That's what concerns me. It comes down to how much of a priority does Nintendo really see him as? Would they give dev time towards making him playable over Banjo Kazooie? Geno? Issac? A Pokemon rep? Or would they decide that boss status just works better? And to add context to it, I'm no longer confident in Isaac's chances either.

Costume theory does not prove he will be playable either (Zero and Takamaru say hi). It just makes it incredibly likely that he's in the game in some capacity.

The real thing SK has going for him is the missing AT. That hasn't changed. I'm just saying we should keep expectations low, people all over were acting like SK was a lock, and as a Ridley fan I know firsthand how badly that can end up.

Completely agree to these points, but I'd like to also offer a corollary.

Smash has been adding fan-favorites in Ridley and K.Rool, who are miles above any others in terms of popularity. But there's no guarantee that those two getting in will definitively state that anything else will happen.

Geno is absolutely nobody outside of smash and huge in the fanbase. The same can be said for Isaac and Banjo as well. But Isabelle and Inklings were never really hugely popular in Smash as much as expected for Smash due to their popularity outside of Smash. Thus I'd argue that we are going based on several factors.

We also know that the Smash fanbase considers assists/bosses as a death sentence, but Sakurai (through his interviews abotu Ridley before) still sees them as relevant representation. There may be little stopping him from looking at a character like Geno and deciding that he's popular, but too obscure for the mainsteram so including him as an assist so the fans would be happy to see him, but the mainstream wouldn't be put off by a character they don't know. Yes, Smash fans (more particularly, Geno fans) would riot. But look what happened with Shovel Knight - he was popular on the ballot, but relatively niche due to being an indie Western game, and his assist was celebrated by everyone except people who wanted to see him playable. I won't deny that Geno or Isaac may be looking at that.

Conversely, Skull Kid (Majora) is relatively iconic, and people are getting frustrated with the lack of Zelda love lately. Cloud's addition was because there had been a lot of requests for various Final Fantasy characters, so he was used to represent the series. You could also consider that, with Midna and Ghirahim confirmed as assists and Tingle confirmed as a stage hazard (and potentially an assist, and hated in the west), the pool of Zelda potentials is shrinking. If Sakurai wanted to add a Zelda character, Skull Kid would definitely be one of the more unique (which would be good since the series is very cloney as is).

Not really trying to make a point here, I just wanted to offer alternatives to your analysis.

 

[AnOkayDM]

I mean I think a gen seven rep will be first in line for DLC! Just not base roster imo.

I disagree, but I suppose we'll just have to see! Only a couple more months before we know everything anyway. You could be right that Sakurai would think adding in all previously cut Pokémon might be enough to tide the fans over!

 

[Cabbagehead]

Here's how I look at it.

While most of the reveals thus far have been fan-favorites for the core Smash fanbase, Isabelle has plenty of fans. They just happen to be more "casual", or younger, or whatever. It's generally a demographic that doesn't correlate too closely to hardcore Smash fans who, say, voted for K. Rool on the Smash Ballot (yours truly notwithstanding).

Skull Kid is like the more ... retro/mature version of Isabelle. Probably didn't get too many votes on the Ballot, and never really had a chance to thrive in Smash speculation until now. However, he is iconic to a large swath of people, but instead of a younger crowd who grew up with Animal Crossing, it's an older crowd who grew up with the Nintendo 64.

The reveal of Isabelle over Skull Kid yesterday I found surprising (especially since she isn't an Echo), but her confirmation should be something of a reassurance that characters who didn't have a significant presence on the Ballot can still make it in, even as a non-Echo.

 

[Potato_]

Completely agree to these points, but I'd like to also offer a corollary.

Smash has been adding fan-favorites in Ridley and K.Rool, who are miles above any others in terms of popularity. But there's no guarantee that those two getting in will definitively state that anything else will happen.

Geno is absolutely nobody outside of smash and huge in the fanbase. The same can be said for Isaac and Banjo as well. But Isabelle and Inklings were never really hugely popular in Smash as much as expected for Smash due to their popularity outside of Smash. Thus I'd argue that we are going based on several factors.

We also know that the Smash fanbase considers assists/bosses as a death sentence, but Sakurai (through his interviews abotu Ridley before) still sees them as relevant representation. There may be little stopping him from looking at a character like Geno and deciding that he's popular, but too obscure for the mainsteram so including him as an assist so the fans would be happy to see him, but the mainstream wouldn't be put off by a character they don't know. Yes, Smash fans (more particularly, Geno fans) would riot. But look what happened with Shovel Knight - he was popular on the ballot, but relatively niche due to being an indie Western game, and his assist was celebrated by everyone except people who wanted to see him playable. I won't deny that Geno or Isaac may be looking at that.

Conversely, Skull Kid (Majora) is relatively iconic, and people are getting frustrated with the lack of Zelda love lately. Cloud's addition was because there had been a lot of requests for various Final Fantasy characters, so he was used to represent the series. You could also consider that, with Midna and Ghirahim confirmed as assists and Tingle confirmed as a stage hazard (and potentially an assist, and hated in the west), the pool of Zelda potentials is shrinking. If Sakurai wanted to add a Zelda character, Skull Kid would definitely be one of the more unique (which would be good since the series is very cloney as is).

Not really trying to make a point here, I just wanted to offer alternatives to your analysis.

Yeah I agree there's two real "reasons" so to speak to include a character, that being they're ether popular in Smash or popular with the general public, I mentioned that before.

I do agree with your assist/boss comment with Sakurai, he has made his stance on those very clear in the past. Hell, Waluigi and Ashley were examples of that too. I do think it's a possibility for Geno/Isaac as well.

With Zelda there's really two options, Impa and Skull Kid. I don't think the Champions or Tetra will be considered until DLC (which saddens me), I'm just wondering whether they even WANT to include a new Zelda rep. They might see the redesign to the triforce trio as enough, which REALLY wouldn't surprise me, especially considering how the series has been treated in Smash.

You do raise a lot of good points though, thanks for giving me more stuff to think about.

 

[DMTN]

Wasn't a huge fan of Isabelle at first, but I have been warming up to her. Her moves show a lot of personality. I said a few pages back that I only expected one newcomer, so I'm not disappointed.
Most characters that aren't on Vergeben's list have taken quite a hit, so that includes our boy. I thought I would be more pessimistic, but I'm still somewhat hopeful. There's still 3 months left before the game releases, so a lot can happen. Skull Kid's ultimate test will be the inevitable boss section of the next Smash Direct. If he doesn't show up there, things are going to get interesting.

 

[TheCJBrine]

I really doubt the core Smash community were the only ones to vote on the ballot, especially if it had over a million votes.

Skull Kid is very iconic to the Zelda franchise due to being in Majora's Mask, and some people like his character in the other games he's in as well (myself included). The special figure for Majora's Mask 3D wasn't just the mask, it was Skull Kid as well, and when people vote for the mask, they always say "Skull Kid." No one wants the mask without the character who's been seen wearing it (outside of some merch).

That VGTribune poll that Skull Kid won had over a million votes, but of course fan-polls aren't the most accurate. But that's just it; that 2015 fan-poll data with around 40k gathered votes didn't have Skull Kid, nor did it have Dark Samus, who was apparently highly-requested, so Sakurai probably looks for more than just the ballot (considering they may not have done well on it).

Now, I am sorta worried for his inclusion as a playable character, but as long as he's not disconfirmed, he's still in the running, so I'm not giving up; we still have the Moon assist, the new MM remix, Majora's Mask as a mii costume, and Isabelle having been an assist trophy that's a huge character outside of the Smash community as well. If there's another Smash game, and Skull Kid didn't get his chance for this one, I'm definitely going to root for his inclusion, as I will for this game's DLC if he's not a boss (and being a boss doesn't make sense for him) or something else.

also can we drop the music theory? It's entirely possible that Skull Kid and other characters will get revealed much later before the game's release, or they simply get revealed without a new song being on the website, so it doesn't seem right to use it as an excuse to disconfirm characters. The Bloody Tears / Monster Dance remix never played during Simon and Richter's reveal, Brinstar Depths didn't play during Ridley's...

 

[cybersai]

Problem is Skull Kid never had as huge support as Ridley/K. Rool, but also because the Zelda fanbase itself moved onto Midna and Giraghim or Vaati or whatever, and couldn't rally behind one character. The Zelda fanbase was split between who they wanted next or who they thought was possible.

Had Skull Kid had all this support from the start, he might have gotten in previously. The reason is because Metroid/DK all have the same major antagonist, whereas we already have Ganondorf, so everyone is scrambling to find some other character to add.

I'm willing to bet if Skull Kid was an Assist from Brawl onward, he would have been seen more like Midna, either people would have given up on him or moved on.

 

[Giga Kaiju]

Guys, if there is a good moment to reveal Skull Kid is in an October direct. I mean, spooky month? Spooky character? Maken sense? Right?

Or maybe that could be just me.

.

 

[AnOkayDM]

I don't think we've ever gotten a themed reveal based on time of year before, so I wouldn't necessarily count on it this time either. That being said, if he's gonna be revealed, there's only two more months to do it in, so it could go either way.

 

[Dr Bones]

I know this is going to sound a bit repetitive but I'm still standing by the chairs. If it were just chairs then it wouldn't hold water. But it's next to the SK colored couch. Maybe that was just a coincidence but the DK themed room followed by K Rool? That two coincidences which support each other. Basically I still think sakurai purposfully decorated the room, so at this point hes either did it as a hint or a red herring. I dont think of ot as a theory anymore but the truth is in his intentions behind it.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Oh good, Ashley and Takamaru are gonna be playable!

Sorry, I had to. Still, there probably is gonna be some correlation between who got costumes and who’s getting at least a role in the game. While Skull Kid didn’t get a full costume, the mask did get in, and was pre ballot to boot.

I think the best piece of evidence is the Moon right now. The more I think about it, the more interesting it is - everything Zelda in the game now seems to come from a different game, so having two Majorams Mask assists seems redundant. And cutting Skull Kid wholesale seems like a strange decision - it’d have been easy enough to include Skull Kid in the Moon assist (i.e. summon him and he calls the moon down), but they didn’t...

Still I am hoping that some aspects of the Mii costume theory hold for some characters at least (Tails, please)

How many times do I have to tell you people

Takamaru, knuckles and Ashley are acceptions because they probably had more difficulty of being made playable than the others

But the moon is much better proof

Knuckles took shadows place (at this point

And kapp’n took Isabelle’s place

 

[Majora's Visage]

I know this is going to sound a bit repetitive but I'm still standing by the chairs. If it were just chairs then it wouldn't hold water. But it's next to the SK colored couch. Maybe that was just a coincidence but the DK themed room followed by K Rool? That two coincidences which support each other. Basically I still think sakurai purposfully decorated the room, so at this point hes either did it as a hint or a red herring. I dont think of ot as a theory anymore but the truth is in his intentions behind it.

Isn't there a crystal skull on the shelve too? Lol. Anyway, I was a bit dissapointed with no Skull Kid reveal yesterday, but in hindsight I think Isabelle was the best choice as a reveal for a regular Nintendo direct. I mean I don't think any of us doubted she would get in, so I am hoping for the next Smash direct we will get some more hype producing characters, Skull Kid included

My prediction at this point is 4 more unique and 3-6 more echo

 

[KingZing]

I know this is going to sound a bit repetitive but I'm still standing by the chairs. If it were just chairs then it wouldn't hold water. But it's next to the SK colored couch. Maybe that was just a coincidence but the DK themed room followed by K Rool? That two coincidences which support each other. Basically I still think sakurai purposfully decorated the room, so at this point hes either did it as a hint or a red herring. I dont think of ot as a theory anymore but the truth is in his intentions behind it.

Definitely. All the recent hints are no cloud hunting by any means, they are just hidden in plain sight. The chairs and couch, the strained eyes, the emphasis on that Rathalos screenshots mimicking GS, the wooded room theme. Even Simon's trailer had the plungers from Luigi's Mansion 3 and the whole "Spirits" theme. Is really considering the moon there and the sun in K. Rool's trailer as hints so delusional? Not really if you ask me!

They may be coincidences, but they line up. Anyone can take from that what they will.

 

[MrRoidley]

if anything Isabelle's inclusion makes me more hopeful for Skull Kid

Isabelle was highly relevant by December 2015 (building up popularity since New Leaf + MK8, Happy Home Designer and amiibo Festival)
Guess who was also relevant because of Majora's Mask 3D and the upcoming release of Hyrule Warriors Legends that year????

The relevancy card is still up I guess, Isabelle showed it

 

[Funktastic]

I think the chair theory can stay, if only because we didn't see Sakurai in this one with a new set of chairs-- Isabelle was always intended to be shown alongside the release of a new Animal Crossing game. When we get the next smash direct with Sakurai we'll know the TRUTH.

 

[Nazyrus]

I think the chair theory can stay, if only because we didn't see Sakurai in this one with a new set of chairs-- Isabelle was always intended to be shown alongside the release of a new Animal Crossing game. When we get the next smash direct with Sakurai we'll know the TRUTH.

Agreed. Plus, Simon was revealed before K Rool and had nothing to do with the room. It could perfectly be next time. Even tho i don't get hold of the chair whole thing, it still would make sense if skull kid is next. And an October reveal for him just makes bloody sense now…