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MARVEL Mafia - Over - Tomjester wins! - Inactivity abandoned

tmw_redcell

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Man, I just couldn't think of any good joke vote jokes. And I don't want to get into a no-lynch debate since it was just annoying when we had it in Hellhouse Mafia. And I'm feelin' lazy.

Though I am suspicious of Tom because of OMGUS and because he once told me he likes long day ones but now seems to be hurrying it.
 

Lance87

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A little perspective: If there is to be a no lynch on Day 1, I think it's stupid as hell to vote the inactives dead.

Why? Because besides having lives as a reason, some people are usually inactive because they don't have power roles nor are they part of the mafia. Therefore, I would assume that vanilla townies make up the majority of the inactives. Of course it's not 100%, but it's something to think about.

If you're going to lynch anyone, lynch an active. I'd bet my life that the % chance of lynching a mafia day 1 goes up significantly by lynching an active player.

With this logic, I've derived a list. I'll include myself just to be fair. I didnt include players who pretty much only posted joke posts and trash like that.

Lance87
Eor
Handorin
Tom
<3
Pikachunoob
Breakwing
Mediocre
Mr. Lombardi


I've come to the conclusion that if someone from this list is lynched, there's a 22.2% chance that it will be a mafia member. It's a hell of a lot better than a no lynch


As of right now, I vote: pikanoob because he's acting the weirdest. I'm leaning towards voting Handorin or <3 just from a gut feeling that could be totally off.
 

KevinM

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You had mostly worthless stuff to say though :p and lynching an active member just because you need a lynch isn't intelligent. Sure eventually you need a lynch but you need a day 1 to play out more. Theres not going to be a slip up by a mafia member, but you might realize something later on that happened, or notice a change in play style or an alliance formed that might connect to day one ramblings. As such I say don't just vote for the most obvious choice and get a quick lynch. That's my reasoning for not voting on him yet and instead checking other people out.
 

#HBC | marshy

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A little perspective: If there is to be a no lynch on Day 1, I think it's stupid as hell to vote the inactives dead.

Why? Because besides having lives as a reason, some people are usually inactive because they don't have power roles nor are they part of the mafia.
This simply isn't true, you're assuming way too much. There are a number of reasons a person could be inactive. It could be their playstyle or simply because they don't have much to say, you can't expect much from the majority of the players on day 1, not this early anyway. Though role has something to do with it, I'd imagine the vanillas would try to be more active because they don't know what's going on and are also the ones who try to find the most info to make a good vote. Mafia members already know who's on their side and who isn't (other than traitors), so it's more likely that they'd sit back and watch everyone kill themselves. That isn't always the case, of course, but that's more believable than thinking that inactives are vanilla townies.

If you're going to lynch anyone, lynch an active. I'd bet my life that the % chance of lynching a mafia day 1 goes up significantly by lynching an active player.
You're asking us to punish the people who try to contribute and reward the people who don't? You could just tell your mafia members to stop posting while trying to get the more active members lynched. Not that the idea would ever work, but maybe that's what you're thinking. You're also assuming that all mafia members are active, when there's just as much a chance that some are active while others are sitting back. I really don't know what brought you to this conclusion.

My predictions:

~4 mafia
~2 independent
~8 townies

amirite McNub?
2 townies for every mafia is a horrible balance, most games around here are 4 or 5 townies for every mafia member, so I don't know how you came to these numbers, care to explain? Also, asking the moderator how many players are on each side? Yeah, you need more sleep.
 

Lance87

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@Marshigio- To be completely honest, most of that was exhausted ramblings. But, I made a list of 9/14 players. Assuming that there's 3-4 mafia, you dont think that at least 2 are on it? I do.

It's not about punishing players who are contributing, it's about making an educated guess about who to vote on. Whether a player is contributing or not (at least imo) shouldnt matter if we can lynch an active member that we think is mafia.

Waaaaaah said:
It's too hard to find a mafia!!! Let's just lynch someone who's not contributing!!!
No lynching and lynching an inactive is a cop out, plain and simple.

Get active, poke people with votes, flame people, and we'll find stuff out.
 

Lance87

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About my prediction thingy, it was just that, a prediction.

K, let me fix it then.

3 mafia
2 ind
9 townies

I figure there's got to at least be at least 1 serial killer in a 14 man game, especially since McCloud is the moderator.

I'm just gonna check back later and see if i was right
 

Tom

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My input may be found inside the quotes. It's fairly obvious to find out which is mine.

A little perspective: If there is to be a no lynch on Day 1, I think it's stupid as hell to vote the inactives dead. Go on...

Why? Because besides having lives as a reason, some people are usually inactive because they don't have power roles nor are they part of the mafia. Therefore, I would assume that vanilla townies make up the majority of the inactives. Of course it's not 100%, but it's something to think about. What is it that they say about making an assumption? You're a ****? Something like that. Is that some "you have no life" theory I see? It might have been legit if you didn't try to convince me that spam_master has a life. Or tmw_redcell, a moderator. And here we see your first percentage figure -- "Of course, I could be completely wrong, so don't hold me accountable when we lynch an active vanilla."

If you're going to lynch anyone, lynch an active. I'd bet my life that the % chance of lynching a mafia day 1 goes up significantly by lynching an active player. Bet your life, huh? And what is this based on, again? Speculation?

With this logic, I've derived a list. I'll include myself just to be fair. I didnt include players who pretty much only posted joke posts and trash like that.

Lance87
Eor
Handorin
Tom
<3
Pikachunoob
Breakwing
Mediocre
Mr. Lombardi


I've come to the conclusion that if someone from this list is lynched, there's a 22.2% chance that it will be a mafia member. It's a hell of a lot better than a no lynch

You know, in the Decisive Games room, you can click on the number of total posts in a thread and it will give you them in sequential order. We don't need your coming in here and telling us who is active and who isn't. And I don't even want to know where you got a 22.2% figure, because you DON'T know anything unless you're mafia. Everything at this point is pure speculation. Speculation, ridiculous math, and a little Appeal to Probability.


As of right now, I vote: pikanoob because he's acting the weirdest. I'm leaning towards voting Handorin or <3 just from a gut feeling that could be totally off.
After all that math, you're going with your gut? Who are you, spam_master? Stephen Colbert?

My predictions:

~4 mafia
~2 independent
~8 townies

amirite McNub?

What the hell is this?


You had mostly worthless stuff to say though :p and lynching an active member just because you need a lynch isn't intelligent. Sure eventually you need a lynch but you need a day 1 to play out more. Theres not going to be a slip up by a mafia member, but you might realize something later on that happened, or notice a change in play style or an alliance formed that might connect to day one ramblings. As such I say don't just vote for the most obvious choice and get a quick lynch. That's my reasoning for not voting on him yet and instead checking other people out.

Oh, KevinM finally says something. And he says... "You didn't say anything important, and Day 1 is important... maybe."


This simply isn't true, you're assuming way too much. There are a number of reasons a person could be inactive. It could be their playstyle or simply because they don't have much to say, you can't expect much from the majority of the players on day 1, not this early anyway. Though role has something to do with it, I'd imagine the vanillas would try to be more active because they don't know what's going on and are also the ones who try to find the most info to make a good vote. Mafia members already know who's on their side and who isn't (other than traitors), so it's more likely that they'd sit back and watch everyone kill themselves. That isn't always the case, of course, but that's more believable than thinking that inactives are vanilla townies.

You're asking us to punish the people who try to contribute and reward the people who don't? You could just tell your mafia members to stop posting while trying to get the more active members lynched. Not that the idea would ever work, but maybe that's what you're thinking. You're also assuming that all mafia members are active, when there's just as much a chance that some are active while others are sitting back. I really don't know what brought you to this conclusion.

2 townies for every mafia is a horrible balance, most games around here are 4 or 5 townies for every mafia member, so I don't know how you came to these numbers, care to explain? Also, asking the moderator how many players are on each side? Yeah, you need more sleep.
Marshigio continues to impress me, no joke.

About my prediction thingy, it was just that, a prediction.

K, let me fix it then.

3 mafia
2 ind
9 townies

I figure there's got to at least be at least 1 serial killer in a 14 man game, especially since McCloud is the moderator.

I'm just gonna check back later and see if i was right

What the hell is this? What do you know about McCloud and mafia? Anything? Does he like serial killers? Because I'm pretty sure this is completely baseless, Mr. Serial Killer. I'll see you Night 1, eh? Pseudo Metagaming and trying to outguess the mod are both completely ******** paths of action.


But being active doesn't make you any more likely to be mafia. Some mafia like to lurk, some chit chat a lot. You're just making a crazy assumption that mafia would not lurk.

Right. "Mafia can do this, or they could do that." Thanks.


======

The truth is that you, Lance, don't know anything about the setup of the game outside of what is in your role PM. None of us should be speculating unless we're going to pool all of our information together, and I am NOT going to be the first to spill my secret identity.

My vote on tmw_redcell still stands. What was his excuse again? He was lurking because he can't tell a joke? I'm also extremely convinced that Lance87 is an independent.

Also, WHY is anyone voting Handorin?
 

Handorin

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Also, WHY is anyone voting Handorin?
Huh? Why is anyone not voting for me? Why is everyone voting for me? Why am I not voting for anyone? Explain yourself!
 

tmw_redcell

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Tom, I don't believe your vote on me, and I don't believe you really think Lance is independent. You know I'm hardly active in the other games we're playing, you know I don't post much in general, yet you think that I should naturally be active since I'm a moderator?

If you really were convinced Lance was an independent, it would make sense to switch your vote to him, rather than just voting the last person to post in the thread. But it seems pretty obvious to me that Lance is an inexperienced player who just doesn't know much about the game, what with guessing a 8:6 town/not-town ratio. But trying to guess how many players are on each side seems like a normal Day 1 thing to do. Him posting that he thinks there's a serial killer in the game is suspicious, but it's hardly 100% proof.

Also, your response to Lombardi's last post really just looks like you being a flippant douche. He was making a valid point, read what he was responding to. You're just trying to draw attention to yourself while making the argument that we should lynch people who don't, and you want to gain the trust of the town but your posts really just seem like attention grabs rather than solid contributions.

Vote: Tom
 

Eor

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I might as well come out now and say that I think Tom is Wolverine, and his posts require him to act like an *******. He never does that elsewhere, he mentioned before that something was 'crazier then wolverine", which makes no sense, and he's been posting in yellow, like yellow spandex. I dunno if the last one would be required or just something he did to try and make sure that people realized he had a character role (as he never posts in yellow), but I wouldn't vote for him for being an *******.
 

Eor

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However, I would be in favor of lynching him for having such a terrible name
 

Tom

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Thank you, Eor, for lifting my restriction, because I wasn't allowed to say that I was Wolverine until someone else declared that I was. I have regenerative healing factor X in my body, which means I can survive a lynch once. Posting in yellow, acting aggressive, and picking on those who weren't contributing were all ways that I thought I could get attention directed towards my character... not to mention dropping my name.

I'm fairly certain that McCloud put that restriction on my role because I can be a great town asset with this role. If you are all afraid of not having any information Day 1, I can prove to you that I am town by being lynched. That way we can have a single lead to go on, while any cops do their job. The doc can protect me from a night kill if thats what he deems necessary, because I'll live through the lynch. That way we can have information from all our night activities without losing a townie. And you'll be able to scratch me off of your scum lists and focus on others.

HOWEVER, accusing Lance of being an independent was not part of my ******* rouse. (1) His ridiculously skewed indy/townie/scum ratio is mighty off and suspicious and (2) He had a role sent to him after we were all told to confirm our own. I know that pseudo metagaming can be a bad idea (in fact, I chastised Lance for it), but this one could be quite fitting. But thats not the primary "evidence," thats secondary behind his ridiculous outlook. I know that Lance isn't an inexperienced player, tmw_redcell. So thats out the way.

Thats my spiel for now, bubs. I think it would be a good idea to take advantage of my power, because I don't see a downside besides possibly lynching a scum day 1 instead of not losing anyone and proving my township at the same time.
 

Mediocre

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I don't see why you surviving a lynch is definitive proof of your towniness. Sure, Wolverine has a supernatural regenerative ability, but so do many characters in the Marvel universe. I'm sure there are also a number of characters who've come back from apparent death, so you could possibly be one of those. I'm not saying that you're faking, but I also don't think that you surviving a lynch means you have to be town.

On the flip side, Wolverine would be a very risky nameclaim for a mafia member or independent to make, because there's a high probability that he's in the game.



My main point is that we should continue on with day 1 for a while longer before we decide to just give up and lynch Tom. Maybe we'll do it later, or maybe not, but I'm definitely against doing it right now.
 

Tom

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Seriously, people? I posted my heart out and then everyone decided to shut up?
 

tmw_redcell

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I don't see why you surviving a lynch is definitive proof of your towniness. Sure, Wolverine has a supernatural regenerative ability, but so do many characters in the Marvel universe. I'm sure there are also a number of characters who've come back from apparent death, so you could possibly be one of those. I'm not saying that you're faking, but I also don't think that you surviving a lynch means you have to be town.

On the flip side, Wolverine would be a very risky nameclaim for a mafia member or independent to make, because there's a high probability that he's in the game.



My main point is that we should continue on with day 1 for a while longer before we decide to just give up and lynch Tom. Maybe we'll do it later, or maybe not, but I'm definitely against doing it right now.
I think by "surviving" the lynch he means he will die and come back. So when he gets lynched, we will get a confirmation of his role and alignment then he will come back. So that would prove he was town.

Although I have heard of a role like this where the player's ability was that he would die, be confirmed town, and come back, but he was actually mafia. But that seems like a really broken ability so I don't think that will be the case.

He could also be a jester. Anyone know of any Marvel characters that would be like that? But I also think that jesters are lame (except maybe in games where the present roles are announced) and they're widely regarded as lame so I doubt there's one in this game. I don't think Wolverine would be a jester but I don't think Wolverine is that risky of a nameclaim. I didn't expect to see any X-Men in here since this is Civil War based and the X-Men weren't really in that, although we're also in some nether-dimension or something so whatever.

I also agree that I think Day 1 should go on longer, though most people will probably just talk about Wolverine. I think Lance warrants another look if what Tom says about his non-inexperience is true. Because if he really is experienced, he's been pretty weird.

Lance, what the hell? 'Splain:

Your terrible guess at the ratio of non-town to town. At least I hope it was terrible. But I really doubt there's a 8:6 ratio. Unless we really nail the mafia and independents with our lynches we'd be boned pretty quick.

And your comment about McCloud being the mod making it more likely there's a serial killer.

Unvote: Tom

Vote: Lance87

Although lynching Tom seems alright for now, lynching a serial killer would be better, I think.
 

KevinM

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Why would we lynch Tom after an uncountered role claim honestly? That kind of play is a waste of a day.

Tom I still don't like when you're a **** :\ lol but anyways now that, that's over lets look at the facts. If we kill you and you're town thats all well and good, but we lost what may have been even more valuable information if we had lynched somebody else, we know your role, I have a feeling you're not bluffing, and if you are then it's not that hard to keep an eye on you. Especially with the role restriction gone and you can go back to posting with a semblance of intelligence. I think the real idea is to start looking for the inactives, not for votes but for information, who they think is mafia, etc.

Lance I also think you yourself have some explaining to do.
 

KevinM

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Don't look at my post as a we NEED to find someone else to lynch kind of thing, As I think if worst comes to worst what Tom's saying does have some merit, but I'd rather see what can develop. So in that case I'd want to see who's suspicious of people and why they are suspicious of them.
 

spam_master

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I absolutely believe tom, but i think it would have been better if he hadn't revealed his power. He could have acted mafia like and had the whole mafia move for his lynch if he really played it up and we would have really narrowed out field with no loss.

Also, many of you have noticed that im not posting as much in this game. Well, after tomafia I realized that people dont really like how my gut guesses are right ALL THE TIME, and that combined with the mafia being afraid of my amazing guessing power gets me lynched very quickly. So this time im gonna wait until later in the game to tell everyone who the mafia is, and be right about it.

Also, I noticed someone refering to my gut guessing style in a negative light, but might I remind you that IT'S ALWAYS RIGHT.
 

pikachun00b7

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C'mon man!

To some degree, I believe in Tom. However, he could be a bluffing Mafia member. It is possible that he knew that we won't actually vote for him. Instead, we would put him in our townie list, permanently. And if he is Mafia, then we are screwed. It would be too risky NOT to vote for him.

However, if we do lynch him and he is townie, then we accomplished nothing. The result will just agree with our guess. If we lynch someone other than Tom, then we will get information. Although, there is a level of uncertainty of Tom's Townness if we do lynch someone else.
This is a very hard decision to make.

However, I will take a risk for now. Lance has made suspicious posts. If Tom is right about Lance's experience, then I wonder what is happening. Red is right, Lance needs explain himself.

Vote: Lance
 

Handorin

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I think there might be more to Tom's role. Usually Wolverine is a kinda crazy guy, amirite? I think right before a lynch, he could make one last attempt to be a hero and take out 1-2 people (similer to what Leonidas did in Hellhouse Mafia). Him suggesting we lynch him for a test could be a perfect cover up if he had suspicions and wanted to kill someone.
 

Tom

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Also, I noticed someone refering to my gut guessing style in a negative light, but might I remind you that IT'S ALWAYS RIGHT.
I'm sorry to be the one to say this, especially because you believe me, but you aren't some kind of human litmus test. In fact, I would venture to say that your gut feelings are barely ever right and you are a bit of a unpredictable (in the bad way), maverick player.
 

Mr.Lombardi34

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I'd have to say that Lance is looking pretty shady right now - SK behavior. He mentioned an SK having to be in the game, then he just kinda made some weird assumptions that don't really help us. He doesn't seem to be trying to accomplish anything.

I'll hold my vote for now, but he isn't looking good to me.
 

#HBC | marshy

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Also, many of you have noticed that im not posting as much in this game. Well, after tomafia I realized that people dont really like how my gut guesses are right ALL THE TIME, and that combined with the mafia being afraid of my amazing guessing power gets me lynched very quickly. So this time im gonna wait until later in the game to tell everyone who the mafia is, and be right about it.
Can't you just post without accusing someone of being mafia? Also, don't expect the players to believe you if you just jump in later in the game with a list of suspicious people.

I think right before a lynch, he could make one last attempt to be a hero and take out 1-2 people (similer to what Leonidas did in Hellhouse Mafia). Him suggesting we lynch him for a test could be a perfect cover up if he had suspicions and wanted to kill someone.
Leonidas only gave his role away when he was close to being lynched and attacked, he didn't tell the town ASAP like Tom has done, at least I don't remember it playing out like that. If Tom wanted to use his role the best he could, wouldn't he wait longer in the game when it becomes clearer who isn't on his side to kill?

I'd have to say that Lance is looking pretty shady right now - SK behavior. He mentioned an SK having to be in the game, then he just kinda made some weird assumptions that don't really help us. He doesn't seem to be trying to accomplish anything.
Am I the only person who doesn't think it's weird to mention an SK? There's 14 people in the game, plenty of room for an independent. I really don't see the big deal in saying that there could very well be a serial killer in the game.
 

spam_master

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Dude, in every game where I was town that finished I have been absolutely right with my picks, I mean look at SPMII i had accused every mafia member based solely on my gut by the time I was lynched on day 2 (and not by just throwing accusations all around, the only mistake I made was voting for dr. twist day one when my feelings where split between him and the godfather.)
 

BreakWing

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Okay

So tom mentions 'Lance' and 'serial killer' in the same sentence and all of a sudden Lance is a serial killer.
But when tom comes out of the closet and claims to be a mutant Canadian, he must be bluffing. Is there something I'm not getting?




If there is an SK in the game, there is most likely a cop and a doctor. I'm not saying there is, but I would assume cop or doctor before SK. But it seems everyone has jumped straight to SK. But today is day one. So the mafia and the mysterious SK are probably going to kill at random. We dont have to act like them. We can lynch tom. If he comes back to life then we only lose two townies, presuming three will die. Thats always nice, y'know, less dead people.


Just thinking out loud here.
 

Handorin

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Leonidas only gave his role away when he was close to being lynched and attacked, he didn't tell the town ASAP like Tom has done, at least I don't remember it playing out like that. If Tom wanted to use his role the best he could, wouldn't he wait longer in the game when it becomes clearer who isn't on his side to kill?
Im not comparing it directly between players, just the role (kind of...I guess). Leo did wait, while Tom did not. Leo told us everything about his role, Tom might have not. There is no way to tell until he is actually out of the game or the game ends. So yes, if he actually has that ability, it would indeed be smart to wait to pull out that card.
 

Virgilijus

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I assume there is no one that can refute Tom's claim as they probably would have spoken up.

To be frank, I do not think it is too incredulous or damming to think there may be a serial killer; there are 15 people here and it is Marvel themed so there very well may be a nut in the hen house.
 
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