*facepalm*
(hypothetical scenarios ensue, btw)
***snip***
There is no depth to any accusation. That means you have no guarantees and have no way to differentiate between bad play and scuminess that can be played off as bad play simply because there are no guaranteed connections. You're just playing a guessing game by seeing one mistake, making a conclusion, and then riding that conclusion to a flip.
***snip***
[long hypothetical about how Mafia entails a lot of guessing, especially on D1]
***snip***
As such, you have to look at D1 as a guessing game. Despite the negative knee jerk reaction your brain just had, guessing games have rules and patterns that you can use to help you win.
What can we do to get the best possible result for town? We know we need a lynch. Lynching town is better than a no-lynch. This isn't an opinion, it's a statistical fact. It's even more important to get a lynch in games with strong players such as this.
***snip***
[another hypothetical showcasing how cases can be built on things that some people interpret as scummy, and the others just see as misunderstandings]
***snip***
What you CAN do to maximize success is to lynch inactives (players that post very little, or very little substance) and those that have larger scum tells and simply save mistakes made by other players for later days. The philosophy that we have to lynch someone with the slightest hiccup on D1 is wrong. It's a much more sound philosophy to get rid of players that are useless to town, as we have information on those that actually post. MenoUnderwater has posted little to naught, and Mentos is silent again.
Pressure inactives, make 'em post, and then you're left with choosing from whoever is scummiest or the least useful. Otherwise, mafia's best strategy is to simply leave one of their members inactive until D3. You can't have any guarantee on someone based on any error you find on D1, not until you find a flip later. At a later date you can use your newfound knowledge to pin them, but for now? Just write it down in notepad and save it for later. There's no depth to any accusations on D1, only feeling people out and inactives.
Ok so lets go through what you've established here.
1.) Mafia is primarily a guessing game.
Correct. Was never contested.
2.) On D1, you are often doing more guesswork than you would later in the game because you have very little, if any concrete evidence to work with to find scum.
True.
3.) Because of the lack on concrete info to work with, scum hunting has no "depth" and therefore your ability to scumhunt is do debased that we should prioritize lynching inactives over people with cases on them.
False. For a lot of reasons.
Yes, D1 is a lot of guesswork. Yes, you have little to no actual concrete information that indicts people as scum (because you never truly have any concrete info indicting anyone save for power role claims or related info usually), but that doesn't undermine the value of judging the scumminess of players based on their interactions with others at all. It certainly doesn't undermine the value of the knowledge you get from seeing the flip of a person who had a lot of discussion and stances surrounding them, and thus, in no way allows the removal of inactives as a pro-town benefit to outweigh the benefits you get from those constructive lynches. I'm not saying you DON'T benefit from lynching inactives, because I do recognize the value in removing them from the game. What I AM saying is that that benefit does NOT OUTWEIGH the benefits you gain from lynching someone who was active but scummy with lots of connections to learn from.
No one here is saying we HAVE to lynch someone for the "slightest hiccup" and give inactives a free ride. I'm sure everyone in here agrees with you when you ask for pressure on inactives. What I'm saying at least, is that when it comes down to lynch consideration, people who made "mistakes" and are considered scummy, no matter how active, should be considered AT THE VERY LEAST on equal ground with a blatant inactive. Personally, I learn more from lynching people with a lot of connections, so I don't usually endorse lynching blatant inactives on D1 and hoping a vig or the maf. will take out the trash for us (because as you and I both recognize, the mafia does have strategic motivation to remove inactives though NKs). If that trend isn't happening, I'm not going to sit on my hands and just let inactives coast. I'm not arguing for giving anyone a free ride, I'm just arguing for using discretion and actually IDENTIFYING who the best lynch target is by weighing these costs and benefits on a case by case basis. Inactives should NOT be a priori the better lynch candidate on ANY DAY, nor should someone who is anywhere from slightly scummy to pretty **** scummy.
And I honestly have no idea what point you were trying to make in the bolded. When did I ever say that because you have to guess in mafia, we shouldn't follow patterns to try and reach the answers we're looking for? Like I don't think anything you said there has any analytical relevance and was just another attempt at a potshot at me. Pretty used to that by now.
I didn't say it made them scummy.
He's writing in haiku, and posting things like "Overswarm is Overswarm" because it's 7 syllables. Do you know what "overswarm is overswarm" means? Do you know what HIS meaning behind it is, or are you just attributing your own to it?
Bolded is the most weighted question of all time. Of course I don't know for certain what HE meant. I would be psychic if I did. Any meaning I take from that is of course my own interpretation. The key here though is I AM STILL ABLE TO SENSIBLY INTERPRET what he said! If I was unable to, then I'd be sympathetic to what you're saying. But it's not incoherent, nor is it cryptic.
If someone else shows to be more of a pain or has scummy behavior, I'll go for them. But on D1? I'll lynch people that post in Haiku because they're the guy in the group that wants to go exploring with you, but only if he can walk backwards. HE'S SO CRAZY AND ZANY. Such an individual, not idiotic at all. Kill him if you have no better options, then you don't have to deal with that anymore.
The bolded is EXACTLY WHAT I'M ARGUING FOR. Inactives are not a BAD lynch, but they aren't by default the BEST lynch. What we're saying is that people who make slight slip ups D1 CAN be better options than inactives on D1.
You made a point (I think it was in response to Gheb) saying that its better to lynch inactives D1 because the slightly suspicious people on D1 will just "dig their own graves" later. This whole timing argument is completely debunked by the fact that you can just as easily remove an inactive later, or that inactive can be NK'd later and removed for us. Saying "we can take care of the other option later" doesn't make that option any less of a good option when the competing option can JUST AS EASILY be displaced.
And again, this goes back to the cost benefit analysis for lynching and inactive versus letting them get NK'd:
FrozenFlame said:
Lynch an inactive:
- Boon for town because they are a drag, inflate the amount needed to lynch, hard to get reads on, can be coasting scum, etc.
- Negative for the town because we waste a lynch on someone who had likely little to no connections with anyone, and we limit our ability to draw connections from the flip and get a step up tomorrow
An inactive gets NK'd:
- Boon for town because they are a drag, inflate the amount needed to lynch, hard to get reads on, can be coasting scum, etc.
- Negative for the town because the mafia killed someone who had likely little to no connections with anyone, and thus limits our ability to draw connections from the flip and get a step up the following day
If you think about it, the BOONS to the town for the removal of inactives are IDENTICAL regardless of how they are removed from the game. What ISN'T identical is the NEGATIVE impact of their removal, based on the method of removal. Since LYNCHES have more value to the town, information wise, than NK flips, we should be using our lynches PRIMARILY on people with decent amounts of connections to others so that we can LEARN a lot from their flip. NK's a INHERENTLY less useful information wise than lynches because as you've said your self they can be used manipulatively and the town has NO CONTROL over them. Town MUST have a say in the lynch which inherently makes them more reliable insofar as information garnering is concerned, AND less WIFOMy.
...My argument against the chart is that it is near useless at its core unless it is done properly, and even then it's got just as big a chance of screwing us over than it does for helping us since one guy is determining the connections and we do not know his alignment. That data can't help unless its accurate, and we have no reason to believe it will be, nor what good it will even do.
What supporters of this mystery chart are saying is that we should be able to look at it, determine he hasn't left anything out or misinterpreted something, and then make a call on that.
Funny story: I say "get the data right, or I'm starting a wagon on you. This chart is going to be useless."
I hear: "that's so dumb, why would you say something like that? And this chart is gonna be useful"
I say: "you have no way of knowing the chart will be accurate! He could be missing things, or deliberately holding them back, or just misinterpreting them!"
I hear: "then he's obviously scum, and we'll lynch him since the data is wrong"
Which is exactly what I said in the first place. Lynch him if he gets the data wrong. Except I told him in advance so he knows not to goof around with it and I'm not going to be some scummy opportunist picking on someone making a huge mistake D3. I just thought a few steps ahead.
Horrendous non sequitur. Here's how the chart scenario would ACTUALLY play out:
- Meno publishes chart
- We all check it out and determine it to be A.) Accurate or B.) Inaccurate
If A.) We use the chart as a very useful tool in discussion the connections between players and either elucidate current lynch pursuits or springboard discussion if the game is stagnatign
If B.) Discussion regarding whether or not the data is inaccurate because of C.) stupid mistakes (unintentional) or D.) intentional skewing of the data to spin it in anti-town favor.
If we determine the answer to be C.) we simply disregard what data is accurate (or the whole chart if its completely ****ed) and pursue other scum leads. If the answer is D.) We grill Meno hard and may very well end up lynching him for it.
What YOU were proposing was an IF B THEN IMMEDIATELY D scenario, which is NOT the right mentality to have. That's the key difference in our two lines or argument.
Self-control... have you played mafia on smashboards? Someone goes inactive for two days and they're either quick lynched for hiding like scum or completely forgotten
I'm played mafia on smashboards for years before you even knew what Dgames was. If someone is scummy and has pertinent leads attached to them, I can guarantee that they won't be forgotten in this game of all games.
Flame, stop posting AtE stuff. I know it's just how you post, but ease up. And don't tell Meno how he should feel.
Lol I love how not only do you misconstrue my condemning of your blatant strawman of what is chart would actually entail, as not on an AtE (which is absolutely isn't) AND as me telling Meno how he should feel. Me saying how
I would feel in Meno's place is NOT telling him how he should feel. That's actually a suggestion YOU made. Furthermore, I'll have to ask you to refrain from making obnoxious comments like "stop making AtEs" when you have absolutely no analysis to back it up. Not that I'm not used to your sweeping statements and blatant mischaracterizations by now, but just ease up.