I really want Ryu Hayabusa too, I know this isnt entirely accurate in any way, but the character names that have been leaked all the way in 2018 to 2019 from various insiders, like Steve, Sephiroth, Hero, Banjo, and Terry were all heard way back when and ARMS and XenoBlade Chronicles 2 were planned but scrapped due to time constraints but then achieved in this pass so in retrospect those two we should've seen coming. Ryu Hayabusa is the last legitimate name heard by insiders that has NOT happened yet which I hope that that changes before the DLC cycle ends. As I've said before I don't see Crash happening, there isn't really any evidence to show that Crash is happening and while a character doesn't need evidence for them to show up, I feel as though everyone is expecting Crash because its Crash and that they kinda forget that ACTIVITSION as a company sucks (I mean they wouldn't even let Amazon do a show about him) and when it comes to Master Chief, we already got Steve so...no I don't really see why people are thinking Chief. I am in NO WAY against Crash or Master Chief in Smash, I would scream of happiness but I just don't see it cuz with Banjo it was different, he and Hero was leaked to death so there was no other prediction too make, it had to be them, but Crash or Master Chief just don't have that so I'm not really counting on them. Ryu Hayabusa on the other hand DOES have leaks surrounding him but I don't think that he's entirely a lock either but he definitely in at least my opinion, has a better shot than Crash and Master Chief (Also if the Lloyd Mii is the one missing here and with Mii Costume theory 100% being real, yeah Hayabusa would be the one that fits that bill the best in my opinion.)
For Crash I feel like it's more of how much Activision seems to be pushing him and his series back into the spotlight after over a decade of mediocrity, and that it began happening around the time Smash Ultimate was revealed. The timing for both instances lined up perfectly, and that's one of the main reasons why Crash has become such a highly-requested character for Ultimate. And recently, Nintendo has been promoting Crash games pretty well, which has been getting the fans who want him in very excited that Crash might actually be coming to Smash. But we've seen plenty of instances of Nintendo marketing other 3rd Party games for the Switch that HAVEN'T led to their characters getting into Smash (Monster Hunter Rise and Bravely Default II being examples). As much as I want to see him make it in, I also don't think Crash is as guaranteed to get in like a lot of people think he is, and that's gonna lead to problems if he's revealed to not actually be coming (look at the Geno fans for reference).
As for Master Chief, as cool as the idea of he and Halo being in Smash is, I feel like a lot of people are rooting for him because of Nintendo and Microsoft's new friendship, and they want Microsoft to get a 3rd character like Sega, Square Enix, Capcom and Konami got, and he's the best choice for that. Also, there have been a few "leaks" that featured him, and those usually always create fanbases for the characters featured in them. But... I'm just not seeing it. I actually think Crash has a much better shot to get into Ultimate, and even he's not a guarantee. If he gets in though... I wouldn't mind at all since Halo 3 is my all-time favorite shooter
But I feel like if we do get another western character, then we're only gonna get one more. And frankly, as much as I love Shantae and Spyro, as cool as I think Chief would be, I'm pulling for Crash to be that character.
I agree with you that Ryu Hayabusa has better stuff going for him. He's an NES icon. His modern trilogy is getting remastered and is coming to Switch next month. Nintendo and Koei Tecmo have a great working relationship and there's not much Tecmo stuff in Ultimate currently, and suspiciously, the links to pre-order the Master Collection for Switch currently aren't available until some time this month, while the links for the PS4, Xbox One and PC preorders are there. And so on. While he's still not a guarantee, I feel like Hayabusa's chances are better than Crash's or Chief's.
I'd also argue that Tales of has a good chance of showing up as DLC since a Japanese leak from back in 2018 talked in depth about plans for base game that not only lined up with stuff that Sakurai had discussed (such ARMS and Xenoblade 2 characters being considered), but also plans that either hadn't happened yet, or eventually came later as DLC (Hero, Steve and Sephiroth). Two of the characters mentioned on that leak who were considered for base game were both Lloyd Irving and Yuri Lowell, neither of which we've seen yet. And because Tales of Arise comes out in September, making the series relevant this year, AND because Fighter Pass 2 seems to be a Pass of mostly bringing in ideas considered for base game (Min Min and Pyra/Mythra missing out on base game, Steve being negotiated for 5 years (around the time Ultimate's roster was finalized), and Sephiroth bringing in the much-desired additional music and spirits from FFVII), I think we should consider the possibility that we could get either Lloyd or Yuri (or even both) as the Tales of character.
In closing, I think both Tales of and Ryu Hayabusa have similar chances of making it into Ultimate, that Crash and Master Chief don't necessarily have. Also it would've probably been easier for Sakurai to negotiate with Bandai Namco and Koei Tecmo, than Activision. Especially if the stories about Activision being difficult to work and negotiate with are true and that may cause problems for Crash getting in Smash.
