Inception mafia: Town and Indy Joint Win!

[#HBC | Dancer]

Ok, I'm done reading! Here is my list of reads: I ordered it from super town to super scummy.


J +++++++
Doom (Vanilla Townie) -+++++++
Kuz ++--++++
Sword +++-+
Dark Horse -+-++++-+
Ranmaru +++++-
Sir Bed --+
Vocal ----++-+++-
Rockin +-+---
KY (Suicidal Townie) +++-+----

Were you using the point system? If so, do you mind elaborating on some of the points?

 

[Delvro]

Were you using the point system? If so, do you mind elaborating on some of the points?

Sure! Here's my point system:

If I read your post and said "Hey, that's kind of scummy!" I added a minus sign.

If I read your post and said "Hey, that's right on!" or "This post is sooo townie!" I added a plus sign.

left to right is oldest post ----> newest post.

 

[Delvro]

Oh and neutral posts = nothing added

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Could you elbotate on the points made against Rockin then if that would be alright?

 

[#HBC | J]

Ok, I'm done reading! Here is my list of reads: I ordered it from super town to super scummy.

J +++++++
Doom (Vanilla Townie) -+++++++
Kuz ++--++++
Sword +++-+
Dark Horse -+-++++-+
Ranmaru +++++-
Sir Bed --+
Vocal ----++-+++-
Rockin +-+---
KY (Suicidal Townie) +++-+----
Tandora -----+----

So you are saying that I have done absolutely nothing scummy at all?

What do you think of the case on th3kuzi?
What about the case on Ran?
Case on Rockin?
I see you agree with the case on Tandora.

 

[#HBC | J]

Why did neither Joey nor Tery make a comment when asked to?

 

[#HBC | J]

Where's Vocal? Did anyone else notice the fact that the color of all the vote-counts and the front page hold Vocal's color? I wonder.

 

[Delvro]

Ok. Looking at the post again it looks like there was a formatting mistake.

Vocal ----++-++
Rockin +-+---+-

Most of Rockin's reads were from D1. I didn't add much to him D2 because he's been spending most of the day pushing KY, which is fine.
Rockin got a plus near the end because of his push on KY, which is dead on

I honestly don't see Rockin as scum with anybody except Tandora. Possibly Vocal.

Game thoughts:
Early on I thought people were being too hard on Rockin for simply not posting. Especially when he was not the only one doing so. However, with post 389, I started to suspect his play. While he made some vague gesture-pointing suspicions at x1 as well as Tandora, he doesn't really commit to anything. It's easy to make a vague suspicion on a scummate once in a while, especially when not backed with a vote. Then, with 602, he continues his non-committal attitude, refusing to take a hard line between the two big votes for the day at the time.

In general, it's his general floppy play that made me give him a bunch of minus signs. I don't have a record of all of his posts that struck me as scummy, but those are definitely the ones that stand out.

 

[Delvro]

So you are saying that I have done absolutely nothing scummy at all?

Yes, J. As such, I would be absolutely floored if you turned out to be scum, especially after the x1 execution.

 

[Teryble Doom~]

Arrrrrrrrrrrgh

Sorry I had to XD!

I didn't post anything because I we weren't both on aim so we couldn't communicate >_>. Us viewing the thread and us both being able to talk =/=.

I feel like looking into Tanny is more needed. I'm going to talk to Tery about looking into Tanny more because it would be a great idea in my opinion.

 

[Teryble Doom~]

Let me clarify that^

I'm going to talk to Tery about changing our vote to Tandora and about going into details on why Tandora looks scummy to us.

 

[Delvro]

I'm thinking maybe I'll do some statistical analysis based on the ratio of minus signs / total signs.

Tandora has a ratio of 9/10, or .9 , which puts her at rank 1, higher ratio than anyone else. Assuming a standard deviation of .09 ( a reasonable assumption when accounting for meta, roleclaims, etc.), I give a confidence interval of .9 +- 2 s.d. (assuming that the distribution of her scumlikelihood is normal). 2 s.d. suggests 95% confidence.

Conclusion:
I can say with 95% confidence that the probability that any player who acts like Tandora this game has between a 72% - 100% chance of being scum.

 

[#HBC | J]

What is this?

 

[#HBC | J]

What do you think of the case on th3kuzi?
What about the case on Ran?
Case on Rockin?
I see you agree with the case on Tandora.

Delvro why did you avoid these questions and intentionally delete them to only respond to the question that was less important than the one you did answer?

 

[Tandora]

Tandora if you're town, you should vote Kirbyoshi. His role claim is soooo silly.

I voted for KY before you joined the game, Delvro. Are you intentionally skimming on me? Or tunneling on me? Seriously, every post you've made about me so far has been mistaken.

1) You claimed I buddied Cello.

2) You forgot I voted for KY.

3) You say I'm just advice dog when I've made some points. I'm pissed people are forgetting this.

 

[Tandora]

Um, Ran, WHEN and HOW did you ask Cello about this?

Ran, please answer this! Did you talk to Cello out of thread?

 

[#HBC | J]

Where's Vocal? Did anyone else notice the fact that the color of all the vote-counts and the front page hold Vocal's color? I wonder.

Also I'm quoting this because people have either skimmed or refuse to answer this.

Something is up and it's weird.

 

[Delvro]

It's a symbol used for making a proof (incorrectly used, of course, there is no proof here)

I was making a joke. Haha...

Right, Tandora, I remember that. I forgot those points because I was so focused on how scummy you've been acting. Sorry. Keep up the good work and don't lift your vote from KY.

I never intended to claim that you buddied Cello. That was entirely directed for x1. As I said before.

Yes you have made some points. Of advice.

 

[#HBC | J]

Delvro, quit avoiding and answer my questions.

That's twice.

 

[Delvro]

Delvro, quit avoiding and answer my questions.

That's twice.

Huh? What question? If you're talking about Vocal's font, I have no idea what it could mean and don't really understand completely what you're connecting his font with.

 

[Delvro]

......oh, I see them now.

 

[#HBC | J]

What do you think of the case on th3kuzi?
What about the case on Ran?
Case on Rockin?
I see you agree with the case on Tandora.

Again this is third time I bringing these up.

I wrote these out.
Quoted this again for you.
Then just quoted these for you again.

 

[Delvro]

What do you think of the case on th3kuzi?

I think the case on Kuz is horrible. Plain and simple.

What about the case on Ran?

I had strong town reads on Ran d1. His responses d2 that were interpreted as scummy seemed more newbieish to me. Ran is a newbie.... right?

Case on Rockin?

I agree with most of it. However, Rockin has made a strong push against KY immediately after x1 flipped and hasn't relented. Clearly Rockin is not a team with KY. Scum would normally be reeling back for a bit right after losing a valuable scummate.

I see you agree with the case on Tandora.

Yes. And while she has voted KY, it was just a follow of Rockin, thus it has less value.

 

[#HBC | J]

What do you think of the case on th3kuzi?

I think the case on Kuz is horrible. Plain and simple.

What about the case on Ran?

I had strong town reads on Ran d1. His responses d2 that were interpreted as scummy seemed more newbieish to me. Ran is a newbie.... right?

Case on Rockin?

I agree with most of it. However, Rockin has made a strong push against KY immediately after x1 flipped and hasn't relented. Clearly Rockin is not a team with KY. Scum would normally be reeling back for a bit right after losing a valuable scummate.

I see you agree with the case on Tandora.

Yes. And while she has voted KY, it was just a follow of Rockin, thus it has less value.

Elaborate on why the case on Kuzi is horrible.

Ran is no longer a n00b. He has dice to prove this from his first mafia game in which he won and he is an active member. It's kindof like calling th3kuzi a n00b at this point. IIRC they started near the same time.

So would you lynch Rockin as well?

 

[Delvro]

......Wait. Rockin switched his vote from KY to Kuz.

That is an EXTREMELY scummy move.

I forgot about that part. After reading 29 pages I tend to skim a bit. Sorry.

 

[#HBC | J]

I've noticed you have a tendency to skim just from this page.

So again, would you lynch Rockin as well?

 

[Delvro]

Rockin would be ok, but not preferred.

I took a look at your arguments against Ranmaru. I suppose I can agree with you that this post is kind of scummy:
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?p=12066900#post12066900
And your argument against him on that one. All the others, though, I don't really find anything unusual about. I still don't think Ranmaru is a great idea.

Listen, I've been reading this thread for about 4 hours. I think I should take a break. It's obviously taking a toll on my analytical ability.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Back from tennis. Woooho tennis.

Clearly Rockin is not a team with KY.

Man know what he is talking about.

I also agree with him that one of the only possible buddies I see for tando is Rockin.

And yeah, as soon as J made that case and Tery joined, Rockin came along for the ride getting off kirbyoshi mighty quick (with terrible reasoning). Funny how those things work out.

 

[Tandora]

I'm thinking maybe I'll do some statistical analysis based on the ratio of minus signs / total signs.

Tandora has a ratio of 9/10, or .9 , which puts her at rank 1, higher ratio than anyone else. Assuming a standard deviation of .09 ( a reasonable assumption when accounting for meta, roleclaims, etc.), I give a confidence interval of .9 +- 2 s.d. (assuming that the distribution of her scumlikelihood is normal). 2 s.d. suggests 95% confidence.

Conclusion:
I can say with 95% confidence that the probability that any player who acts like Tandora this game has between a 72% - 100% chance of being scum.

Um, did you know that 82% of all statistics are made up?

Seriously, have any of your mathmatical proofs ever proven anything? I remember when you were scum back in Newb3 and you used all sorts of math to "prove" we shouldn't lynch you... AFTER YOU CLAIMED SCUM!

This is total bs guys. He's not proving anything. He's making up information as he goes.

It' just a bunch of numbers to look more legit than he actually is.

 

[th3kuzinator]

oh and if Tanny flipped scum, id say kirbyoshi is town.

I think if kirby flipped scum vocal would be town

Idk about Ran tbh, I'm still getting a town read but I am pretty unsure of myself about that one.

Regardless, delvro replaced into a town slot. J is town. I am town (yeah, yeah, but its my list so just take it at face value)

Tery, DH, Swords were on the X1 wagon with J before the deadline yesterDay to help execute X1. I doubt a scum buddy would do that so close to the deadline.

Again leaving

Kirbyoshi
Rockin
Tando
Tom
Ranmaru
Vocal

lynching all of those people eventually will pretty much get a town win imo. Top three first.

Also whoever the doc protected (assuming the kill was not stopped by BP) is town. Doc, dont you dare claim now, but just keep in mind whoever you protected is most likely cleared.

 

[Delvro]

Um, did you know that 82% of all statistics are made up?

Seriously, have any of your mathmatical proofs ever proven anything? I remember when you were scum back in Newb3 and you used all sorts of math to "prove" we shouldn't lynch you... AFTER YOU CLAIMED SCUM!

This is total bs guys. He's not proving anything. He's making up information as he goes.

It' just a bunch of numbers to look more legit than he actually is.

I said it was a joke already. =( lighten up... I'm a mathematician.

I'm off for real now. Addicting game is addicting.

 

[#HBC | J]

If no one wants to go either kuzi or Ran

Unvote
Vote: Kirbyoshi

I'm going this path.

 

[Dooms]

Teryble Doom is subbing out. We'll explain why post game.

Go Town~!

 

[#HBC | J]

wait, what, why?

Infuriating but if there's a reason can't really blame.

DH, comment since your viewing.

 

[#HBC | Dark Horse]

I have a gut Town read on delv.

And I'm curious as to why Tery/Joey can't tell us why they're replacing out.

FoS: Tery and their replacee

 

[#HBC | J]

Really ?

 

[#HBC | Dark Horse]

EBWOP: that gut read on delv was taken from his posts and his alone. Taking cello into consideration, the result is murkier

 

[#HBC | J]

Your not commenting on anything else DH?

 

[Terywj [태리]]

I have a gut Town read on delv.

And I'm curious as to why Tery/Joey can't tell us why they're replacing out.

FoS: Tery and their replacee

Do not judge our replacement because of our lack of explanation. It will be better to all the players. If you judge our replacement, it will only hurt you.

Go town!

 

[#HBC | Dark Horse]

Cry ptic....