How can we predict reveals?

[Robertman2]

I think this month we'll get at very least a random veteran reveal. I'm also expecting Wario for the Mario kart 8 release.

Same.

 

[Kind Dedede]

Kind of a pity, though. If the remakes have no impact on the game, he probably won't get any trophy. So we'll more than likely not know of his fate until the game comes out, or if he's actually revealed.

Gen 3 does deserve its fair representation, don't get me wrong. I really do think these remakes has nothing tying in with Smash unfortunately just like tropical freeze seems to be lacking. Only thing really standing out was Blaziken but it would be a crap storm of hate if 2 fire types made it in.

 

[Snagrio]

I want to say we'll get at least one random veteran reveal before E3, but given the drought that happened last time I severely doubt it.

 

[Pega-pony Princess]

Waiting for that Ghirahim trophy

Aww. No Ghirahim? I would like him as a newcomer, but to one his own I guess.

 

[Morbi]

Aww. No Ghirahim? I would like him as a newcomer, but to one his own I guess.

Same, I really like him, but another Legend of Zelda deconfirmation would actually help us more definitively figure out a potential newcomer.

 

[Kind Dedede]

Same, I really like him, but another Legend of Zelda deconfirmation would actually help us more definitively figure out a potential newcomer.

Wasn't skull kid enough for you people!!!
[/sarcasm]

As much as 2 Links and Zelda's may be ugly on the eyes, I'm honestly hoping Ganon gets in. Well, at least as a final smash where the trident would replace the sword Ganondorf should be wielding. Long as Tingle keeps his AT I'm good. Although, poor Impa.

 

[egaddmario]

Aww. No Ghirahim? I would like him as a newcomer, but to one his own I guess.

I remember when everyone wanted Midna in during the Brawl era and i never understood why- she was a one time character with no importance to the series. It's happening again with Ghirahim. Plus, we have 4 confirmed with Ganondorf in the shadows waiting to be revealed. I doubt we'll get 6 Zelda characters on the select screen. But y'know, opinions n such.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Moar deconfirmations. I'm mainly waiting for the ones people overrate their chances with.

Which, truth be told, there's not a whole lot of this time around. As others have mentioned, I think people have a lot more realistic expectations this time around and their popularity reflects that for the most part. The only person who I think people grossly overrate anymore is Ghirahim and probably Issac, I hate to admit.

 

[Starcutter]

Well, I think whatever Ridley is doing will be shown off at E3, sorry for being so obvious.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Well despite mario kart 8 jp is on. The 29th i don't think we are getting a character reveal that time despite the record being beat again of no reveal (mario kart 8 would be released after the new record of no character reveal.)

And i think the rest. Of the starters, and special case characters (a couple that have to be unlock.) will have be shown at E3

 

[Wario Bros.]

Seeing that May already past the halfway mark, I'm starting to think we aren't getting any more character reveals until E3 happens. Fine with me as I have big hope for Sakurai @ E3.

 

[Louie G.]

I could see Wario corresponding with Mario Kart.
Otherwise I think we'll have to wait for E3.

I feel like we'll see Mewtwo, Pac-Man, Ridley, and Palutena at E3, regardless of their status in the game (mainly pointed towards Ridley).
Veteran wise Ness and Falcon make sense. It's been too long.

 

[Morbi]

I could also see Wario correlating with the release of Mario Kart 8; however, I am certain that we will get a reveal before e3, even if it is the week before.

 

[False Sense]

I could see Wario corresponding with Mario Kart.
Otherwise I think we'll have to wait for E3.

I feel like we'll see Mewtwo, Pac-Man, Ridley, and Palutena at E3, regardless of their status in the game (mainly pointed towards Ridley).
Veteran wise Ness and Falcon make sense. It's been too long.

Personally, I could see Palutena missing out on E3 and either being a reveal during a last minute Direct right before the game's are released, or being a secret character. Speaking of secret characters, I think Ness and Captain Falcon could remain secret characters this time around, like they typically are.

 

[PurpleSpaceDragon]

Which, truth be told, there's not a whole lot of this time around. As others have mentioned, I think people have a lot more realistic expectations this time around and their popularity reflects that for the most part. The only person who I think people grossly overrate anymore is Ghirahim and probably Issac, I hate to admit.

Geno was perhaps the most discussed potential Newcomer pre-Brawl despite being pretty much impossible even back then, so you're right that people are more realistic this time since he's mentioned much less frequently than pre-Brawl. We're also seeing much more logic all around in terms of trying to figure out what Sakurai will do, not just pipe-dreams.

But what about Krystal and Bandana Dee supporters? Their threads are at 60 and 76 pages, respectively (as comparison, Palutena - the most likely Newcomer - is at 97 pages). This seems very high for characters who have about zero chance of being playable this time around.

Are Krystal and Bandana Dee supporters just choosing to ignore the odds and have fun anyway, or do many of them really, truly believe Krystal and Bandana Dee have a great shot at playability?

 

[Morbi]

Geno was perhaps the most discussed potential Newcomer pre-Brawl despite being pretty much impossible even back then, so you're right that people are more realistic this time since he's mentioned much less frequently than pre-Brawl. We're also seeing much more logic all around in terms of trying to figure out what Sakurai will do, not just pipe-dreams.

But what about Krystal and Bandana Dee supporters? Their threads are at 76 and 60 pages, respectively (as comparison, Palutena - the most likely Newcomer - is at 97 pages). This seems very high for characters who have about zero chance of being playable this time around.

Are Krystal and Bandana Dee supporters just choosing to ignore the odds and have fun anyway, or do many of them really, truly believe Krystal and Bandana Dee have a great shot at playability?

As a Bandanna Dee supporter, I can tell you that the thread is mostly comprised of a smaller group of very passionate people. It isn't necessarily the same as the Krystal thread which is more like a lot of people that are remaining optimistic. Most of the Bandanna Dee thread truly believes that Bandanna Dee has a great shot at play-ability, myself included. The Krystal thread is more "realistic" with their expectations. In each thread there are outliers, some Bandanna Dee supporters are hesitant just as some Krystal supporters are adamant. But collectively, the two are not really comparable.

 

[Louie G.]

Personally, I could see Palutena missing out on E3 and either being a reveal during a last minute Direct right before the game's are released, or being a secret character. Speaking of secret characters, I think Ness and Captain Falcon could remain secret characters this time around, like they typically are.

We have Toon Link and Luigi before release, who I feel are 100% unlockable.
Ness and Falcon have a shot at being starter like they were in Melee, as they are the faces of their respective series.

As for Palutena I think she could be revealed in a gameplay trailer, or even better get her own trailer during the 90 minute Smash Direct. I highly doubt she will be a secret character.

 

[Autumn ♫]

Geno was perhaps the most discussed potential Newcomer pre-Brawl despite being pretty much impossible even back then, so you're right that people are more realistic this time since he's mentioned much less frequently than pre-Brawl. We're also seeing much more logic all around in terms of trying to figure out what Sakurai will do, not just pipe-dreams.

But what about Krystal and Bandana Dee supporters? Their threads are at 60 and 76 pages, respectively (as comparison, Palutena - the most likely Newcomer - is at 97 pages). This seems very high for characters who have about zero chance of being playable this time around.

Are Krystal and Bandana Dee supporters just choosing to ignore the odds and have fun anyway, or do many of them really, truly believe Krystal and Bandana Dee have a great shot at playability?

I can understand Krystal, but how does Bandanna Dee have almost 0% chance at being playable?

 

[PurpleSpaceDragon]

As a Bandanna Dee supporter, I can tell you that the thread is mostly comprised of a smaller group of very passionate people. It isn't necessarily the same as the Krystal thread which is more like a lot of people that are remaining optimistic. Most of the Bandanna Dee thread truly believes that Bandanna Dee has a great shot at play-ability, myself included. The Krystal thread is more "realistic" with their expectations. In each thread there are outliers, some Bandanna Dee supporters are hesitant just as some Krystal supporters are adamant. But collectively, the two are not really comparable.

Cool, thanks for the insight. I agree that Bandana Dee has a much better shot than Krystal so I probably shouldn't have lumped them together. I really like Bandana Dee, but I'd say his chances are lower than Isaac's.


This is how I'd honestly rank character playability chances for Smash 4 (listing the characters with big threads):

Geno: 0.25%
Krystal: 0.5%
Professor Layton: 5%
Robin/Tactician: 5%
Medusa: 7%
Ghirahim: 15%
Tingle: 15%
Takamaru: 20%
Bandana Dee: 20%
Isaac: 25%
Ridley: 35%
King K. Rool: 40%
Mewtwo: 65%
Shulk: 70%
Mii: 80%
Pac-Man: 85%
Chrom: 90%
Palutena: 99%

 

[False Sense]

Cool, thanks for the insight. I agree that Bandana Dee has a much better shot than Krystal so I probably shouldn't have lumped them together. I really like Bandana Dee, but I'd say his chances are lower than Isaac's.


This is how I'd honestly rank character playability chances for Smash 4 (listing the characters with big threads):

Geno: 0.25%
Krystal: 0.5%
Professor Layton: 5%
Medusa: 7%
Takamaru: 20%
Bandana Dee: 20%
Isaac: 25%
Ridley: 35%
King K. Rool: 40%
Shulk: 70%
Mii: 80%
Pac-Man: 85%
Chrom: 90%
Palutena: 99%

Hey, where's Mewtwo, Robin, or any Zelda newcomer in that list?

 

[PurpleSpaceDragon]

Hey, where's Mewtwo, Robin, or any Zelda newcomer in that list?

Mewtwo I didn't add because he's not technically a Newcomer, but I'd put him at 65%. I'll edit him (and some others) in to the list.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Cool, thanks for the insight. I agree that Bandana Dee has a much better shot than Krystal so I probably shouldn't have lumped them together. I really like Bandana Dee, but I'd say his chances are lower than Isaac's.


This is how I'd honestly rank character playability chances for Smash 4 (listing the characters with big threads):

Geno: 0.25%
Krystal: 0.5%
Professor Layton: 5%
Robin/Tactician: 5%
Medusa: 7%
Ghirahim: 15%
Tingle: 15%
Takamaru: 20%
Bandana Dee: 20%
Isaac: 25%
Ridley: 35%
King K. Rool: 40%
Mewtwo: 65%
Shulk: 70%
Mii: 80%
Pac-Man: 85%
Chrom: 90%
Palutena: 99%

Thats a good list but

I think both ridley and king k rool is closer to 50%

 

[Swift Fox]

Wouldn't say Ridley is as likely as King K. Rool.

He's almost de-confirmed and I don't think Sakurai will troll fans again that he's in fact a playable character would he? In other words, fans are overthinking/overanalyze Ridley's inclusion as a boss and find a way to have him playable as well. I think he's basically S.O.L. anyway unless when he got movesets that can be re-purposed into a playable character but I don't see it happening.

King K. Rool could become a boss as well along with kremlings found in Smash Run but at least he got better chance than Ridley.

Krystal at 0.5%? That's way underestimated IMO...

 

[PurpleSpaceDragon]

Wouldn't say Ridley is as likely as King K. Rool.

He's almost de-confirmed and I don't think Sakurai will troll fans again that he's in fact a playable character would he? In other words, fans are overthinking/overanalyze Ridley's inclusion as a boss and find a way to have him playable as well. I think he's basically S.O.L. anyway unless when he got movesets that can be re-purposed into a playable character but I don't see it happening.

King K. Rool could become a boss as well along with kremlings found in Smash Run but at least he got better chance than Ridley.

Krystal at 0.5%? That's way underestimated IMO...

I'd be really interested to hear what you think Krystal's chances are percent-wise, and your reasoning.

I just can't possibly imagine Sakurai adding a 4th Star Fox rep at this point, especially one that wasn't in the original for SNES nor the game most fans consider to be the highlight of the franchise: Star Fox 64, in which she has no role in either the remake or original.

Also working against her is the fact that Rare created her, not Nintendo.

And of course she's got a lot of hate thrown her way-- more than any other possible newcomer from what I've seen.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Wouldn't say Ridley is as likely as King K. Rool.

He's almost de-confirmed and I don't think Sakurai will troll fans again that he's in fact a playable character would he? In other words, fans are overthinking/overanalyze Ridley's inclusion as a boss and find a way to have him playable as well. I think he's basically S.O.L. anyway unless when he got movesets that can be re-purposed into a playable character but I don't see it happening.

King K. Rool could become a boss as well along with kremlings found in Smash Run but at least he got better chance than Ridley.

Krystal at 0.5%? That's way underestimated IMO...

And the party continues despite the evidence that ridley supporters found some still refuse to believe ridley still has a chance for playable

 

[Swift Fox]

Krystal 25%

1. There's no Star Fox stages and if it was because of one of it is Sauria and it will give too obvious of a hint of Krystal (chance will probably skyrocket to 99). Sakurai will want to hold it for later for better surprise.
2. While she may have large hatebase but she will have large fanbase as well, even.
3. No such thing as overrep/underrep. Star Fox also happen to have one rep increment on every Smash Bros installment. The next Smash Bros being 4th installment = Star Fox is given one more rep which is yet to be used...
4. Unique moveset thanks to her staff. In case of Palutena's inclusion she will become semi-clone just as much as Wolf is to Fox,...
5. She may be created by Rare, King K Rool is as well created by Rare.

EDIT

especially one that wasn't in the original for SNES nor the game most fans consider to be the highlight of the franchise: Star Fox 64, in which she has no role in either the remake or original.

Based on Mario and Pokemon series they got two new characters coming from their latest installments as well so that really refute your argument.

Thanks to this, I've added another reason supporting Krystal.

6. While Star Fox only has reps from its classic games, Krystal, being a role in modern Star Fox games, got potential thanks to Rosalina and Greninja which also from their respective series' modern games.

 

[PurpleSpaceDragon]

Krystal 25%

1. There's no Star Fox stages and if it was because of one of it is Sauria and it will give too obvious of a hint of Krystal (chance will probably skyrocket to 99). Sakurai will want to hold it for later for better surprise.
2. While she may have large hatebase but she will have large fanbase as well, even.
3. No such thing as overrep/underrep. Star Fox also happen to have one rep increment on every Smash Bros installment. The next Smash Bros being 4th installment = Star Fox is given one more rep which is yet to be used...
4. Unique moveset thanks to her staff. In case of Palutena's inclusion she will become semi-clone just as much as Wolf is to Fox,...
5. She may be created by Rare, King K Rool is as well created by Rare.

EDIT


Based on Mario and Pokemon series they got two new characters coming from their latest installments as well so that really refute your argument.

Thanks to this, I've added another reason supporting Krystal.

6. While Star Fox only has reps from its classic games, Krystal, being a role in modern Star Fox games, got potential thanks to Rosalina and Greninja which also from their respective series' modern games.

Thanks for explaining your reasoning. Good points on #1 and #5. I only partially agree that Rosalina and Greninja boost Krystal's chances however, and that's because Rosalina and Greninja's latest games were much more recent than the latest game with Krystal (Star Fox Command) which released 8 years ago, in 2006.

Nonetheless, many people think Nintendo will announce a new Star Fox at E3 this year...and Krystal might be in it. So that possibility boosts her chances

So I think I'll raise my % for her, and maybe tweak a few others, after thinking about it for a bit more time.

 

[PurpleSpaceDragon]

Thats a good list but

I think both ridley and king k rool is closer to 50%

Ever since the Smash Direct and infamous shadow, my % chances for Ridley and K. Rool have been ranging between approximately 30%-for-Ridley and 35%-for-K. Rool, to 57% or so for both of them.

There have been just so many ways of looking at the Ridley situation in particular, and new arguments and analyses are posted so frequently that I'm needing to constantly adjust my prediction percentages.

 

[False Sense]

I'm just going to say that I'm partially expecting a de-confirmation tomorrow.

 

[Zwzchow]

(Oh hey first post :>)

Ok here are my thoughts about character reveals @ e3

I personally think that more or less 70% of the unannounced veterans (bar Snake, Ivysaur and Squirtle for unfortunate reasons) will be secret characters (esp C Falcon Ness and Puff)

If there was another third party newcomer, he will definitely be shown at e3.
As for newcomers I do support Chrom, Palutena as the few possible choices.
On the other hand I really don't believe that Ridley or Mewtwo will be in (the fanservice requests can never be satiated)

Ridley is clearly too big for the game and even his "appearance" in the Pyrosphere stage in the Smash Direct shows his part of his wing and shadow and you can obviously tell that he wasn't scaled to be around the same size as the smashers.
As for Mewtwo...why would they put 3 pokemon that can Mega Evolve (a bit too much imo) and the "oh there were 6 pkmn slots in Brawl therefore there shall be 6 character slots in sm4sh" argument is garbage

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

(Oh hey first post :>)

Ok here are my thoughts about character reveals @ e3

I personally think that more or less 70% of the unannounced veterans (bar Snake, Ivysaur and Squirtle for unfortunate reasons) will be secret characters (esp C Falcon Ness and Puff)

If there was another third party newcomer, he will definitely be shown at e3.
As for newcomers I do support Chrom, Palutena as the few possible choices.
On the other hand I really don't believe that Ridley or Mewtwo will be in (the fanservice requests can never be satiated)

Ridley is clearly too big for the game and even his "appearance" in the Pyrosphere stage in the Smash Direct shows his part of his wing and shadow and you can obviously tell that he wasn't scaled to be around the same size as the smashers.
As for Mewtwo...why would they put 3 pokemon that can Mega Evolve (a bit too much imo) and the "oh there were 6 pkmn slots in Brawl therefore there shall be 6 character slots in sm4sh" argument is garbage

The Ridley for SSB4 Thread - Now with 50% more Ridsalina

You were saying?

The shadows of the characters are stretched out just like his, and rosalina's shadows is almost as big as ridleys without the wings, and don't bother trying his wings have ben made bigger than his body for 60% of the metroid series.

 

[Zwzchow]

Thanks for sharing that
The only thing is that his shadows and whatnot hasn't been really been spotted on other stages. Until that happens I am still convinced that he is still a stage hazard.

 

[Fatmanonice]

But what about Krystal and Bandana Dee supporters? Their threads are at 60 and 76 pages, respectively (as comparison, Palutena - the most likely Newcomer - is at 97 pages). This seems very high for characters who have about zero chance of being playable this time around.

Are Krystal and Bandana Dee supporters just choosing to ignore the odds and have fun anyway, or do many of them really, truly believe Krystal and Bandana Dee have a great shot at playability?

I think you give Krystal and Bandana Dee far too little credit. They have an advantage that a lot of potential newcomers don't have: they're pretty much next in line in their respective franchises and have no real competition. In other words, if Star Fox/Kirby gets a new rep, it's going to be Krystal/Bandana Dee, end of argument. It's like how Palutena is for Kid Icarus. Her credentials for playability far exceed the person who is in second place (which many fans argue could be one of nearly half a dozen other characters in Uprising). Krystal and Bandana Dee are pretty much in the same boat. Star Fox and Kirby have been staple franchises in the Smash Bros series since the beginning so it's not entirely farfetched for either to get yet another representative. Krystal has been playable in the main story line of a game more times than any other Star Fox character aside from Fox and Bandana Dee was one of the four main playable characters in Kirby's latest console release. The movesets for both characters write themselves and they both are recognized by the general public. Are they guaranteed? Of course not but I'd be far pressed to say that they're not contenders. I personally doubt both of them but that's only because I feel both the Kirby and Star Fox franchises have reached their "cap" but, then again, I thought the same about the Mario franchise and yet Rosalina still snuck in with even less credentials than these two. Either way, I wouldn't rule either of them out completely and I would be genuinely shocked if either of them didn't at least become ATs.

 

[ToiseOfChoice]

The last non-Direct character revealed was Diddy on February 21st, also widely known as my childhood dog's birthday. I think.

That's probably been brought up already a dozen times in this thread, but I think it's a pretty good indication that we're not getting another until at least after either E3 or release.

I think you give Krystal and Bandana Dee far too little credit. They have an advantage that a lot of potential newcomers don't have: they're pretty much next in line in their respective franchises and have no real competition.

This. Also Krystal has always had passionate fans and Kirby games are doing great right now.

 

[Xzsmmc]

As for Mewtwo...why would they put 3 pokemon that can Mega Evolve (a bit too much imo) and the "oh there were 6 pkmn slots in Brawl therefore there shall be 6 character slots in sm4sh" argument is garbage

There were three Landmasters in Brawl as well. Also, please explain to me why the 6 slot argument is garbage.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

http://www.smashbros.com/us/characters/ike.html

Another slap in the face of sakurai saying can't touch this.

And i do think its still possible wario to be shown on thursday, because the toon link and sonic drought was only 6 days.

 

[Snagrio]

And once again, just when we thought nobody would show up till E3...

Sakurai must be really determined to keep us off guard.

Also, yet another character that many thought was on thin ice. Sakurai wasn't kidding when he said the pre-establishd roster most likely will remain intact.

EDIT: Dang it S.O.B., ya Greninja'd me!

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

^lol your shortening of @ Smashoperatingbuddy123 makes it seem like you were calling him something else. Made me chuckle.

So glad to see Ike is back. Another random reveal that we couldn't have predicted. But that doesn't even matter, because WE LIKE IKE.

The only other reveal I see happening before E3 is Wario, which I feel like is going to happen simply because he's Wario. Then again, it's not a Wario game, so it's also possible it doesn't happen. We'll just have to wait and see. But today is a good day. A great character returns, and the site crashed because of it. This might be the most exciting veteran reveal yet.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

^lol your shortening of @ Smashoperatingbuddy123 makes it seem like you were calling him something else. Made me chuckle.

So glad to see Ike is back. Another random reveal that we couldn't have predicted. But that doesn't even matter, because WE LIKE IKE.

The only other reveal I see happening before E3 is Wario, which I feel like is going to happen simply because he's Wario. Then again, it's not a Wario game, so it's also possible it doesn't happen. We'll just have to wait and see. But today is a good day. A great character returns, and the site crashed because of it. This might be the most exciting veteran reveal yet.

For the wario part.

True its not a wario game but a mario kart 8 is easily a good game to premote so i really do think we might get wario next week.

 

[Snagrio]

^lol your shortening of @ Smashoperatingbuddy123 makes it seem like you were calling him something else. Made me chuckle.

So glad to see Ike is back. Another random reveal that we couldn't have predicted. But that doesn't even matter, because WE LIKE IKE.

The only other reveal I see happening before E3 is Wario, which I feel like is going to happen simply because he's Wario. Then again, it's not a Wario game, so it's also possible it doesn't happen. We'll just have to wait and see. But today is a good day. A great character returns, and the site crashed because of it. This might be the most exciting veteran reveal yet.

The site crashed again? Geez, if it went down due to a simple veteran reveal, then the whole site will be utterly incapacitated during the entirety of E3.

And yeah, I just noticed what else S.O.B. would imply...