Honestly, of all the theories and evidence being thrown around about whether he is or isn't getting in, the most powerful indication to me that he might is the fact that we don't have his costume in ultimate yet. Correct me if I'm wrong, but every major DLC costume from 4 has been implemented into an assist trophy (Isaac and Knuckles
) or an actual character (Krool, Chrom, Isabel and Inkling). Geno is the only ballot voted costume I know of that hasn't received either treatment yet. I will say this though, and mark my words:
If he doesn't make it in via DLC, then it's game over. Don't expect him to ever make it into a future installment.
Why? Because Sakurai talked about the possibility of Geno since Brawl, but what happened? 39, yes 39 characters have been added to the game since then and none of them were Geno. For whatever reason, Nintendo/Sakurai have not deemed him a priority over any of those 39 characters. Now, I'm not comparing the relevance of any of them to Geno, but my point is that if the likes of WFT and Piranha plant could beat him in, then there's obviously more at play here than simply the desires of the fanbase (even though I wish there wasn't). I still hope he gets in, and we have at least SOME clues that he might, but if he doesn't, I won't hold my breath any longer.
I don't really find the "Oh , 39 characters got over him since Brawl" argument fair.
You need to realize that these characters were either first party , or very popular/iconic third party.
Even , let's look at 3rd party real quick:
-Snake : Iconic. Also broke the "no 3rd party" fan-rule. His games weren't much on Nintendo system , but the cinema feel the MGS games had made them iconic , and thus , Solid Snake became as well.
-Sonic : The stinkin' 90's rival of Mario. The iconic blue blurr. He's not always at his best , but damn it would be a crime to say he's not iconic.
-MegaMan : NES Icon and still pretty iconic , even if a bit less than Sonic. Granted , people learned to enjoy his games when he start to not have new games released for a while , but that just show he's a great character if people wanted him back.
-PAC-MAN : Lol it's PAC-MAN , the Arcade legend , I'm not gonna elaborate on him.
-Ryu : Mr.Fighting Video game. Nothing more to add. (Ken was an obvious echo and still as iconic)
-Cloud: Mr.RPG/FF7 Guy. FF7 was such a success that people think Cloud whenever you tell them "RPG" or "Final Fantasy".
-Bayonetta : Alright , she's the tricky one. She's pretty much a Nintendo character now , she needed Smash to survive... Because Bayonetta 2 was great , but also a Wii U exclusive. She also had requests , but not as much as others characters.
-Simon: NES Icon. Or Gaming icon in general. Even if he's just the "Vampire slayer/Guy with a whip" to people who don't play video games , it's enough to show he has let his mark on the gaming world. Richter was Japan's Simon in a way.
Geno can't compare to them. Heck , even Sora couldn't.
Geno is a fan-favorite and a retro character , people simply want him back and think he's a great Mario character.
SMRPG surely introduced RPGs to a lot of 90's Nintendo fans , it sold well and everything , but Geno as a character isn't iconic.
And Geno's owner aren't very generous with the SMRPG IP , so a Bayonetta situation is out of the question.
And nothing is stopping Sakurai from adding first party characters , and almost nothing is stopping Sakurai to adding 2nd party characters like Isaac or the pokemons. If he want the character in , he'll do it.
That's why Wii Fit Trainer and Piranha Plant got in , because Sakurai felt like he could do something unique with them while representing another part of Nintendo's history. They didn't got in over Geno , they have almost no connection to him.
We should also count the fact that he talked about Geno 3 times , and got his likeliness to use 2 times. That's A LOT for what was a one-off character from a 20 year old SNES RPG. It show that Sakurai is aware that we love him and we want him , and if he could add him...
Why wouldn't he ? The main reason he's not in right now is because Square Enix don't see the potential in him. Also... He wasn't going to get in over Cloud first. It was still generous from Square Enix to allow the costume and the 2 SMRPG spirits to be a thing.
You know when I would start to lose hope for Geno in Smash ? That's when we'll get Five Square Enix rep , but still no Geno.
I can understand Sora.
I can understand Dragon Quest.
I can understand Sephiroth.
But if they start to bring us characters like Mog , Tiz , Neku or an Octopath traveler rep , I won't understand. I won't understand why they'll give us these characters that , are still pretty cool , but also not really requested and start to be more niche , while Geno is in front of them , would take almost no effort (HE'S FREE DLC MONEY !) would make fans happy , and would open the possibility for Square Enix to work on A MARIO RPG.