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If the masonry have successfully breadcrumbed their roles then they shouldn't claim, if not they should. There is a chance both make it to tomorrow, all it takes is mafia not coping them last night or killing one tonight. If both Mason's survive to the nex day the game is basically over. If they haven't breadcrumbed them they should claim so we don't have one dead mason and no evidence for their partners claim
If the masonry have successfully breadcrumbed their roles then they shouldn't claim, if not they should. There is a chance both make it to tomorrow, all it takes is mafia not coping them last night or killing one tonight. If both Mason's survive to the nex day the game is basically over. If they haven't breadcrumbed them they should claim so we don't have one dead mason and no evidence for their partners claim
So in this post I'm going to fully explain how the setup works so you guys don't have to think about it. '*' means to refer to the calculation spoilers.
Zen posted about why there's a good chance that a mason will get NKilled tonight. Just to reiterate
Scum had 2/5th chance of stalking a mason yesterday. (2 masons out of 5 candidates (6 townies minus the one they nightkilled) In which case they'll definitely be able to hit the mason tonight.
They had a 3/5ths chance of stalking a VT. Assuming toDay we lynch a VT that hadn't been stalked last Night, scum will have a 2/3rds chance of hitting the mason. (2 masons out of 3 candidates, 4 townies left minus the one they stalked the previous night.) If we do lynch the VT that has been stalked, then they'll have a 50:50 chance to hit the mason.
Ignoring the case where we lynch the VT that was stalked last Night, scum has a 80% chance of hitting the mason tonight*. In the unlikely chance that we lynch the VT that was stalked last night, scum has a 70% chance of hitting the mason*.
Like Zen mentioned, this is completely ignoring the competence of the scum team in their ability to pick out the mason / vt tells in the thread. This heavily increases their odds. This is also especially true now that Vult claimed VT
(2/5 + (3/5 * 2/3)) == 4/5 chance of them nkilling Mason
2/5 [chance that mason was already stalked last night. 2 masons out of 5 candidates (7 townies minus gheb and bardull)] + (3/5 [chance that VT was stalked] TIMES 2/3) [chances of hitting mason randomly. 2 masons out of 3 candidates. (4 townies left minus the vanilla townie that was stalked last night])
even if we lynch the VT who was stalked last night, the calculation becomes (2/5 * (3/5 * 1/2)) == 7/10. 70% chance that mason dies tonight.
To conclude, it's HIGHLY likely that if we lynch town today, scum will kill a mason. And at the very least they'll know who the masons are due the logic above and the fact that they have another stalk action.
Now, assuming we lynch scum today there are two outcomes:
Mason get's NKilled. 1 Mason, 3 Townies, 1 Scum left. 70% chance of this happening*
Vanilla Townie NKilled. 2 Masons, 2 Townies, 1 Scum left. 30% chance of this happening*
(2/5 + (3/5 * 1/2)) == 7/10 chance of them nkilling Mason
2/5 [chance that mason was already stalked last night] + (3/5 [chance that VT was stalked] TIMES 1/2) [chances of hitting mason randomly. 2 masons out of 4 candidates. (5 townies minus the vanilla townie that was stalked last night])
(fun fact: this is the same odds as if we were to lynch the VT who was stalked last night)
In both these instances the only optimal play for scum is to claim VT. In the first scenario, town has 2 chances to lynch the scum out of 4 vanilla townie claims. 50:50 chance of town winning. In the second scenario, even with the 2 masons still alive, town has 2 chances to lynch scum out of 3 claims. 2/3rds chance of us winning
To conclude:
if we lynch scum it's still VERY likely that a mason dies tonight
If we lynch scum, and both Masons are still alive d3, we are NOT guaranteed to win the game. (though the odds are in our favor
If we force claims today:
Scum HAS to claim VT. If they decided to mason counter claim, they have to claim mason together. Since we have one mislynch remaining, we'll be able to use that to verify which mason team is telling the truth. Note that if we lynch town today, and both Masons somehow survive till tomorrow (unlikely), the scum team will now be able to CC mason team and we won't have a mislynch to verify who is telling the truth. If one mason dies, Mafia still has the option to have only one scum CC mason partner.
Since scum claims VTs, the game becomes we have 3 chances to lynch 2 mafia out of 5 VT claims. Another way of putting this is town just has to choose 2 VT claims that their confident are town. They can then lynch the other 3 in any order.
Pros to outting the masons today
Mason claim is only valuable today.
Narrows the lynch pool, vanilla townies now have info of who the mason clears are (information that scum likely has already or can deduce easily).
Prevents scum from being able to counter claim mason team tomorrow (if both masons are still alive)
Prevents scum from being able to have one scumpartner CC mason partner (if mason gets nkilled)
Cons to outting masons today
We lose the scumhunting ability to see if scum will try and push a mason that would be revealed later. This is kinda moot imo since there's already a good chance that scum know who the masons are. And they'll definitely know who the masons are come D3. Plus pushing a mason's slot isn't inherently scummy
So to reiterate:
It is very unlikely that the mason will survive till tomorrow.
Even if the masons survive till d3 unrevealed, we're not guaranteed to win the game.
Even if the masons survive till d3 unrevealed, scum has the option to CC masons
If we out Masons today, scum is forced to claim VT and their options in the endgame are vastly limited. (They can't CC either of the masons)
So based on my post above, I agree with Zen that we should do a prioritized claim order.
#HBC | Ryker
, Maven89
, Vult Redux
, #HBC | Red Ryu
, #HBC | ѕoup
Apologies for the long post, but can you read the above and confirm whether you're down with the mason claiming. If you're not please provide a good reason.
If the masonry have successfully breadcrumbed their roles then they shouldn't claim, if not they should. There is a chance both make it to tomorrow, all it takes is mafia not coping them last night or killing one tonight. If both Mason's survive to the nex day the game is basically over. If they haven't breadcrumbed them they should claim so we don't have one dead mason and no evidence for their partners claim
While I think this post was genuine, if you read my post above I think you'll see why this is not the case.
Basically there's a miniscule chance that the masons will survive till tomorrow. And even if they do, we're not guaranteed to win by any means.
There's just generally not much additional value in having the masons claim tomorrow vs toDay. Actually it might be worse if the mason's claim tomorrow since scum has the option to CC them whereas today they're forced to claim VT.
Sure maybe I am overthinking it, but there's nothing wrong with hashing out the setup specifics. Delaying our lynch isn't a big deal if it gives us a higher chance of guaranteeing the win. Also I'm not sure that you should be so confident in your scum reads, esp not to the point that we ignore pro-town strategies.
Vult you need to respond to #628 and tell me how on earth you draw that conclusion when I dropped it as soon as you gave me a satisfactory answer. I didn't realize your post to Mac was a joke. You need to tell me why as me as scum with soup, I continually pestered you to actually read him.
If we lynch town today and Mafia somehow kills a VT tomorrow (which is unlikely if scum is actively trying to kill a mason):
Scum can cc the mason team together. So the sole VT left is the decider. 1/2 chance of town picking right.
Or both scum claim VT. In which case the masons have to decide which of the 3 leftover VT claims is town. There is a 1/3rd chance of them choosing right in this scenario.
This is just more evidence that even if the mason's survive till tomorrow, it won't help us much.
Few of Vult's actions over the past week make any sense to me. And looking back on it, few of his actions the entire game make sense. I've always ignored them, because his tone and carelessness came of as extremely town to me. The only thing that kept bugging me about him was his lack of soup stance and pursuit. He's pressured and scum hunted on everyone but soup, and that kept pinging me. It took me four times of badgering him to look into soup before he finally gave me something, and I still felt like he wasn't really making an effort to discern his alignment.
Despite this, soup was somehow Vult's strongest scumread at the end of the day. He's not brought up one point against soup other than the point that applies to all the coasters this game, yet somehow soup has been confirmed scum to him. He's made no effort to question soup or to dig into his ambiguities. He just has him pinned on the wall as scum, but has made no actual effort to lynch him.
But came into the day voting Maven and is now hard set on lynching me, for looking into an ambiguity? Both Ryker and Ryu are willing to vote soup. I'd vote soup over myself. Vult is the swing here and he is voting someone he's had town all game on the basis of nothing over his supposed uber strong soup scum read.
--
Other things that don't line up with Vult:
His pressure on Bardull. I didn't get it. After I unvoted, Vult continued with the position that I shouldn't have. His read on Bardull somehow changed, but it was never explained in detail.
His realization that Gheb was not serious about his Bardull hammer from the line "That's why I asked for a hammer?" Yes, it's clear now that Gheb was being half-serious, but how in the world was this the line to suddenly give Vult a change of heart? I highly recommend going back to read this one.
His scum read on Mac. The disappearance of this read was also not explained.
His read on Ryu. Vult had suddenly had a really strong scum read on Ryu yesterday, but it vanished out of no where once he realized he was not getting the support for it.
What is even his position on Maven haha. Vult claims that he has this game on lock, but he has 4-5 different scum reads that can come and go at any time without any explanation
Vults voting pattern has been nothing but opportunistic:
He's going with the flow of my lynch after a sudden burst of support for it. He had me locked as town before the day end.
He dropped Bardull after losing support for it even though he made it seem like he never got what he wanted.
He dropped Mac when there was no support for it.
He dropped Ruy when there was no support for it. And completely reversed the read once he realized I was probably never going to buy into it.
He dropped Maven when there was no support for it.
Say what you want about me, but I have elaborated on my reads in great detail many times. I change my mind a lot, but I've always shown why. I've always made an effort to push my scum reads and clear up misunderstandings I might have about another's behavior. This has been independent to what the other players are currently pressing. Contrast this to Vult, who has only gone after people that other players are showing clear signs of lynching. This makes sense if he was trying to create an environment that would cause scum to make action. But from his Bardull wagon and his last post,
I think it makes sense for us to consider the beliefs of the ones that we've lost. The reads of Gheb and Bardull are useful for the following reasons:
They both are confirmed town.
They both didn't support the horrible Gheb lynch.
Mafia night killed Bardull. While Zen thinks using this logic is straight WIFOM, I think it has merit. Occam's razor would imply that scum would kill townies that were most detrimental to their plans.
While of course Gheb and Bardull are not infallible, these points gives me reason to value their thoughts over anyone else's in the current game. For any other townies reading, I think it should also influence your reads as well.
So let's look at what they believed (all of these quotes are in chronological order starting after I replaced):
What bothers me about Ryker though is how he reacted to me tagging him to hammer off Bardull. The more I think about it the more I doubt that town!Ryker would've commented on it without any following up whatsoever. He'd either ignore it because he'd consider it too insignificant or he'd interrogate the hell out of me - but just mentioning it as a reason to "not read me as town" which he supposedly "almost" did and then not doing anything with it is definitely odd for him. He also hasn't done much else - his votes have been pretty lazy and are similar to mine, just more sparse [as is his input in this game in general] and he has thrown out a townread on Bardull which isn't something I can give him a lot of credit for.
Right now I wanna say Macman, Bardull and soup are non-plays for toDay with the latter leaning closer towards null than the other two.
<Gheb reasoning for town reading Bardull>
Maven and Ryu on the other hand have made posts that I think are mostly on point and certainly pro-town enough to keep them around but at the same time both slots have been very sparse with their input which in town!Ryu's case would be quite uncharacteristic. But Maven's kind of a good player and I wouldn't put it beyond him to just do whatever little is necessary to cruise along safely as scum either. I don't think I'd actively push for a lynch against either of them but I'd likely compromise if the situation requires it.
Then there's Ryker ... whom I'm willing to lynch? Dunno what else I wanna say here. Zen, and possibly others, have said they have a town lean on him but I don't know how or why that happened. I can't give Ryker pro-town credit for anything so far.
Ryker is Gheb's biggest scumread. I still generally agree with this sentiment of not being sure where the town reads from Ryker came from. I've been asking people all game and noone has really been giving me any concrete answers.
He town reads Soup, Bardull and I.
At this point he's ok with but skeptical about Maven and Ruy.
- Zen: Has shifted stances on people like nobody's business, 100% untrustworthy, has done NOTHING to deserve any pro-town credit.
- Ryker: Pretends to have a scumread on soup which has been of exactly 0 consequence so far, has taken very convenient stances all game, been only pushing easy stuff whenever it seemed opportune to him. When he's called out for not doing stuff he's just pointing fingers at soup, Maven and Ryu which is clearly below his town standards. All that is happening under the pretext that he doesn't want to get involved too much in D1.
- Vult: Has avoided taking any major stances on people, only commented on things from the sidelines without actually getting involved in anything himself. His play overall has been pretty opportunistic for and largely for his own personal benefit rather than town's.
- Ryu: Has been flip-flopping pretty hard on me, went from reading me as scum via mob mentality to listening to my reasons back to following mob mentality and voting me. Did very little all Day, and if it was it has largely been inconsequential, for the most part he's been playing to his scum meta.
Vult's, Zen's and Ryker's votes are bad / disgusting.
Ryu's seems like a cop-out and opting for a compromise which is not unacceptable but does nothing to improve his position in this game, which is that he's expendable.
Maven's, Bardull's and Macman's votes are decent and based on reasoning I'm willing to accept even if I may not end up agreeing with all of them [won't be able to read them in detail toDay either].
My reads remain mostly unchanged. Macman and Bardull are town in my book, soup can be good if he starts doing more scumhunting, Ryker's reads are excuses and he can die, Zen is detrimental and non-townie and can therefore die, Vult is playing it much too safe for me to call him anything but null and Ryu is a decent compromise lynch for sure. Maven has done more than people give him credit for, will only vote if no other option is available.
Gheb's late Day reads post: Town reads me and Bardull. Null town reads on Maven and Soup. It appears that his strongest scumread is still Ryker. Next on his list are Zen (for being anti-town) and Vult (for playing it safe). Ruy is a compromise.
I know I'm probably crazy for my reads. Even I look at myself and say "how does this make any sense," but that's what I'm coming to. Here are my thought processes:
Soup is the hardest one for me to read, so he's in my "I can compromise to him if need be but I'm reluctant to put a nail in his chest" pool. I just think it's weird that he openly admits to trying to goad me and push my slot, but says it's not personal. I doubt he would do this to other slots. If it wasn't personal, then maybe it was scum goggling, maybe not. He's played a fairly passive role in this day phase in the grand scheme of things, and I don't necessarily agree with his direction, which is why I'd be willing to compromise to him.
Zen is just flip flopping all over the place and it's hard for me to trust the slot's ingenuity. Like, I could've sworn he was going for Soup, then myself/Maven, and now he's going for Gheb. Granted, the behavior is erratic and it's questionable if scum would do this. But there's also the vote that put me at L-1, which he claims that he was not paying attention to vote count or conversations at the time. A part of me really thinks that it was an opportunity for ScumZen to get some HBC-esque quick lynch going on my ***. I also feel like the timing of his unvote was off and that he got cold feet for some reason. If he was trying to get a read on me or see reactions, the unvote was too soon, which makes me suspect his reasoning this day phase. It does seem like he is actively scum hunting otherwise though.
My biggest qualm with Gheb was that he was willing to allow my lynch to happen, and it came pretty close. The 180 and subsequent turn away from my slot was also questionable. I generally agree with Gheb's view points of other slots though, which is why I'm reluctant to jump on his wagon and call it a day.
I feel like Maven is very much on point and hasn't given me a real reason not to trust his slot except that perhaps he isn't trying to progress discussion in the thread often. He says he isn't very actively involved in D1 in response to this allegation. I'm not sure what to make of it. I don't think the slot has made any big mistakes yet.
Red Ryu seems pretty active, I worry a little about his tone but not so much his content except perhaps recently. He is probably Town. I'm not super confident about this.
I felt Ryker's initial RVS was a little uncharacteristic. Mac raises a point later on about how Ryker might be overreacting to pressure in his direction; this is reminiscent of when Ryker confronted me about how I felt regarding his slot early on. Ryker has been a bit in and out, which may or may not have to do with him trying to get another* job. I'm also a little reluctant to off this slot. His response to Mac was fine though. I can't be sure.
Vult, I've already explained. I would be cool with seeing him go, but a lot of slots are reading him as Town for some reason, so maybe I'm missing something. He recently exclaimed that I was crazy and that I was wrong to imply that he was interested in my lynch despite having a town read on me, but he literally said he was fine seeing me go, then defends himself and says he isn't actively seeking my lynch(?). I don't really get it.
I mostly felt Mac was Town when his thought process aligned exactly with mine regarding Ryker's slot, and it's also something I feel most would be a little reluctant to do. I don't really have many qualms with his approach.
Bardull's late Day reads posts: Town reads me. Is ok with Ruy and Maven. Thinks Vult and Zen are scummiest. Is ok with a Ryker lynch (and eventually votes him). Is also ok with a soup lynch.
my takeaways from these posts by Gheb and Bardull:
At least 2 confirmed townies agreed strongly about Ryker scum. So for townies saying my reads / reasoning is bad (looking at you Vult, Zen, and Ruy) please reconsider.
they thought Zen and Vult are scummy. Out of 6 potential townies, mafia chose to kill Bardull. Bardull was the biggest advocate of ZenScum and VultScum. Bardull, along with me and Maven, were the only ones to scumread Ryker. As scum, it would make more sense for Zen, Vult or Ryker to get rid of Bardull.
Bardull also strongly town read me and slightly town read Maven. So I think that as scum, it would make less sense for Maven or I to kill off Bardull. This makes me like Maven more (and is more reasoning for macTown if you guys were unsure)
Bardull was also for a Soup lynch, but a large number of players in the game also wanted to lynch Soup so I don't think Bardull's flip tells us much about Soup's allignment
Personally, these thoughts led me to scum read Zen earlier toDay (especially if we tack on his heavy flipflopping day 1, his bad push of Gheb, and his weird post claiming that Bardull was a good nightkill). In retrospect it should also make me dislike Vult as well. So I guess I'm officially going back on my Vult town read.
I tried to make that as concise as possible. :/ I know it can be a pain to read things of such length, but please try to make the effort if you're town.
#HBC | Ryker
Assume I town. What do you think of Vult's hop onto my wagon and his reasoning for doing so.
In all likelihood, I'll probably be voting soup when it comes down to it, since he is the only alternative to myself. And Vult's vt claim clears up any speculation I might have had about the two of em being Masons.
I tried to make that as concise as possible. :/ I know it can be a pain to read things of such length, but please try to make the effort if you're town.
The night kill is WIFOM. If I were scum, I would have killed you to get a Ryker lynch. Occam's Razor doesn't apply here. People always use that where it doesn't apply.
But let's assume that we do base scum off of the night kill. There is only one person that was scum reading Vult, and that was Bardull. There were multiple people scum reading me, and one that was only considering me (Maven). If you think scum killed Bardull because of his reads --which is shouldn't, but I digress -- then Vult is the one you should be looking at.
I'm trying to intake this all at a moderate pace, but when it comes down getting to what people want me to do, I end up just continuing to lurk. I understand this is poor behavior on my part, so I apologize.
One observation I can make (and it might surprise people, that observations can be synonymous with scumhunting!) is that Red Ryu is sure-fire on me suddenly because of an activity drop and because I'm playing bad? If the general idea is that I'm not scumhunting because I've been a bit more silent, then I don't know what to really say. I haven't been that much of a presence as of late but the arguments being presented don't really interest me, because they seem very circular. I believe I mentioned a problem earlier which people just seemed to ignore, where I feel that people are stuck reading the player and not the slot.
The argument with me and Zen being paired (something I managed to glance over) falls into that same category, where people are looking at tendencies in a jagged way, and I think it's honestly ridiculous. I think Mac is the only person who hasn't felt like they're trying to beat people over the head and trying to tell them how to play. It hasn't been worth it putting myself in the crossfire, and I don't really know how to read it all honestly. Amazingly, people have been asking me for my reads but I think I've been giving reads this whole time, and not too many of them have changed. I think the only one that has taken shift is perhaps Ryker who I think is trying way too hard to pin me and Zen together, and it's kind of funny. Another person who gives me that same feeling is Vult, who has just decided that pairing us together would be the most logical option because I happened to townread him and Zen changed his mind. If you're going to make an argument like that with relation to player behavior, what about the behavior where Zen tends to be more sporadic as town? What about that one? I just got out of a game recently where Zen was scum and he was much more meticulous, and something I feel Zen does when he's Mafia is to try and avert attention from him, where town is the complete opposite, and he enjoys being in the center of the game.
I honestly think Ryu is just a deluded townie who thinks he's grasped onto something without concrete evidence and circumstance. I never had enough of a strong feeling to validate scumreading him. Vult and Ryker are far more dubious.
Xivii
We can get into this more at the end of the game but I think looking at who mafia killed has merit. Assuming that you're correct and that the night kill is completely WIFOM and therefore null, wouldn't scum then want to kill people that disliked them over people that liked them? There is a direct benefit to this for scum. A benefit that increases if they know that town isn't going to make conclusions based on who was night killed.
Anyway, this doesn't change the fact that the reads of Gheb and Bardull have some merit solely because they're confirmed townies.
Sorry guys, here's one last annoyingly long post, I guess I shouldn't have decided to focus on mafia after doing adderall today.
This goes into the bulk of my reads on every slot, feel free to skim and jump around. If you scroll down I have huge orange headings for each player that begin my thoughts on that slot
Let's begin by looking at the End Of Day vote count:
It's no secret that I think the Gheb lynch was terrible. He was one of the more active townies, always explained his thought processes, and didn't deserve to be lynched over less active / less contributing members like Soup, Ryker, Maven or Ruy. Also I believe that generally the logic for lynching Gheb was weak and the way his wagon was formed feels unnatural. Because of this, it's likely that scum was on the lynch. (Also since I know that I'm town, i know at least one scum was on the wagon by process of elimination) So I'm going to look at the nature / context of all the votes on the wagon.
But before that I'll give my thoughts on Maven. While I'm not completely convinced he's town, I don't believe I should focus on him toDay given that he wasn't on the Gheb wagon. Also, I've generally agreed with the reads/posts he's made all game. Also I think the fact that Bardull townread him would make it more unlikely that he was the scummer that killed Bardull. Lastly I'm somewhat deferring to the opinions of Gheb and Bardull who had no issues with him.
I did however feel that his posts about Gheb in twilight read a bit opportunist, like scum trying to really emphasize that they disagreed with the Gheb lynch.
Zen: (null read)
This slot was the main pusher of the Gheb lynch. While I disagreed with his reasoning, it at least made some sense and I could see how town would arrive at his conclusion. The fact that he had a scumread on Gheb earlier in the day and came back to it does read a bit genuine. The fact that he was the first on the wagon is also a point in his town favor as I think scum generally avoids being the first on a wagon.
At this point we can see that there wasn't much support for a Gheb lynch, the lynch pool options were Ryker, Zen and Maven. Almost directly after this post, Zen starts a Gheb push. Unless Zen's scum partner was also in this lynch pool (either Ryker or Maven), I don't see a strong reason for scumZen to start a completely new push. I'd expect scumZen to double down on either townMaven or townRyker. (On the other hand, if his partner was either Ryker or Maven I could see why scumZen would want to rehash a bad push)
I initially thought Zen was town because for the most part I could understand his thought process in the posts he was making and despite how often he was changing his mind, I expected scumZen to play a more reserved game. Gheb's posts however did convince me that I should not give Zen a pass because of this. I agree with that sentiment as I think it is likely for scumZen (if he was confident that he had thread support) to be just as anti-town and muddy the waters for town.
On the other hand the fact that Bardull and Gheb both scum read him look really bad for him imo. The fact that his opinions were in direct contrast with 2 confirmed townies (and me another confirmed townie to myself) doesn't give me confidence that his reads were in good faith.
I also disliked the fact that he never gave the Ryker scumread a chance and was basically hard defending him. This wouldn't be too bad if he had given concrete reasons for town reading Ryker, but he hadn't.
I do give him townie points for pointing out the Mason thing earlier. I can't really figure out a reason scum would want to mention something that appears scummy at first and is pro town in the long run...
There are points both in favor for scumZen and townZen so for now I'll put him as null. This slot has generally been a headache to read and I regret telling Bardull yesterday that Zen's lynch was unlikely.
Ryker: (scum read)
It should be no surprise that I have a scum read on Ryker. But lemme try to show you guys my thought process behind it.
Besides his RVS interaction that everyone save Bardull disagreed with, my initial reason for thinking scumRyker was because none of his posts gave the impression that he was trying to find scum. What he primarily did all game was:
ask vacuous questions that never led to him forming any reads.
makes observational posts that don't seem to lead him in a direction for who is scum
give reads that are generally sparse in reasoning behind them
this was right after he said he think's Bardull is town. How was this helping his read on either Bardull or Maven/Gheb? What did Ryker get from these questions to Soup and Bardull?
I was actually fighting the urge to put Gheb in my town list because his posts were null but funny until he made the quick lynch comment. Jesus Christ what was that?
Maven's most recent post is split into defending Bardull and excusing Gheb. One I agree with, the other I don't. The other thing he does is throw shade at Zen, which is perfectly acceptable given that vote to L-1.
How does this make Ryker feel about Maven or Gheb?
So just generally I couldn't seem to follow Ryker's scumhunting thought process. Moving forward to analyzing his EOD vote. I think the way he joined the Gheb wagon was scummy. Let's attempt to follow the evolutions of his reads:
Zen - Disliked that he put Bardull at L-1, but do like that he backed off.
Maven - Essentially working off one post. Need to see more reads evolve.
Vult - I like him more than most of the thread. Is pushing to move things along.
Bardull - I actually like him, believe it or not. I don't think he's one anything to warrant a lynch.
Mars - Post, bruh. I got nothing.
Gheb - ^
Ruy - I've seen some posting but none of it reads as meaningful.
Soup - IGMEOY. You take a party pooper stance on things and are looking at Bardull who I have no problem with. What are your thoughts on Gheb right now?
This is his first major reads post. There are very simplistic/nonexistent explanations for his reads here. His strongest read was on Soup, but what does it mean to take a "party pooper stance on things" and why exactly is that scummy?
I do want to bring attention to his Soup read here, as this is a read he maintains for the rest of D1.
I should be more active in general now that the weekend is over. I spent it learning a 9.5 hour RPG speed run and completing one run at gucking 15:25:06. I intend to try again on Tuesday and Thursday, but odds are good I don't get a run going and can stay active.
In any case, yes, I'm playing lazily. No, I won't bother extensively to trt and piece together Zen's alignment on D1. It's an exercise in futility and no one would back me up if I decided he needed to go anyway.
Bard is town because he's done more actively trying to read and push the game than anyone on the game save maybe Vult. Soup leans scum because his stance on Bardull was disgusting and wrong.
If you put a gun in my hand with the replacement for Mars, I'd shoot Maven or Soup.
My present outlook on Bardull is better than slots like Soup or Mac or Maven. I slot him in around Ruy or Gheb. I mostly just want him to talk to me more.
I don't have a particularly strong case on anyone at the moment (and even less so then). I've given comments on who I would shoot if you put a gun in my hand and told me I had to and I said I was willing to lynch the inactive. Voting the inactive does absolutely nothing.
1. Red Ryu - Null leaning contributing nothing of value so far.
2. Mac - Annoying. I elaborated above on why he's annoying. Would love to not have to deal with the slot, but should sort himself out in one fashion or another if we keep talking. Would not want to lynch this slot while I have an ongoing dialogue. Is the only slot I think I could add to a lynchpool without a major shake-up prior to day end.
3. Gheb - Null leaning town? I've got a mirror reading much of the frustration I've talked about in not having much in the thread. The reads he has provided have matched up with my sentiments closely enough. I'm fine with taking Gheb to day 2.
4. Ryker - Town, but I'll put him in the lynchpool for arguments sake.
5. Maven - I don't remember much at all out of this slot other than the defense of Gheb which, while I agree with it, isn't much. I wouldn't mind losing him.
6. Bardull - Was fine with him earlier. Wouldn't lynch him as long as he shows up at some point before deadline and doesn't make a fool of himself.
7. Xivii - Sort him out at a later date. No real qualms as of yet.
8. Soup - Annoying again. I dislike Soup's read on Bardull with intensity. I think it looked like fishing for further support on top of the RVS wagon based on things that I didn't see as there. The thing about baiting with the "productive" comment and the semi-pandering to his "No Lynch" partner don't help either. Probably my pick if I have to hit scum right this moment.
9. Vult Redux - Leaning town. No real qualms with the slot. Seems to wear his intentions on his sleeve. You can see his reads evolving and changing in front of your eyes and I'm good with that.
Given those thoughts and the fact that Mac is still trying to push me, AFAIK, and your lynchpool is:
Soup, Maven, Ruy, Ryker
Thoughts on those players from any and everyone are appreciated.
I'm "annoying". I assume that means he has a slight scum read on me. He also calls Soup annoying, and it appears that soup is his biggest scum read. He has Maven and Ruy as null for not having contributing much. Both of these slots are in his lynch pool.
I posted it above. Ruy, Soup, and Maven with you being the one I needed to speak to more. I am willing to look at Gheb because it seems like the game is shaping up into him or me and I like Zen, Vult, and Bardull.
Zen - Town
Vult - Town
Bardull - Probably Town
Maven - Null leaning scum.
Soup - Null
Ruy - Null.
Gheb - Null leaning scum at this point. I dislike the way that he has said multiple times that basically everything Zen and I have said cannot be used to ascertain our alignment. This is the only read that has significantly changed.
Mac - Scummy, but I could very easily be mistaken. I cannot understand at all why I have historically been the only thing on his plate or why he thinks the initial exchange with Zen is scummy after further clarification.
His last read list of the Day and also the most concerning.
Soup, who was presumably his biggest scumread up till this point, is now null for w.e reason.
Maven, a slot who he only had a null read on because of lack of content is now a scum lean for w.e reason
Ruy, a slot who was in his lynch pool is now considered less scummy then gheb.
Gheb went from a lean-town to a lean-scum. His argument for Gheb scum also doesn't feel valid. Why was Gheb saying that you can't conclude townZen from Zen's posts a scummy thing to say.
And let's not forget that he still has a town read on Zen at this point.
Can anyone tell me how Ryker formed these reads? Where are they coming from? Is anyone else able to follow his thought process?
Of course him hopping on the Gheb wagon is the worst thing about this post. This reads like scum taking advantage of a competing wagon and self preservation on Rykers part.
Let's do a quick breakdown of this wagon:
- Ryker: Pretends to have a scumread on soup which has been of exactly 0 consequence so far, has taken very convenient stances all game, been only pushing easy stuff whenever it seemed opportune to him. When he's called out for not doing stuff he's just pointing fingers at soup, Maven and Ryu which is clearly below his town standards. All that is happening under the pretext that he doesn't want to get involved too much in D1.
Yea what exactly has Ryker's heavy read on soup led to? Why'd he get rid of his soup suspiscion? How come Ryker did nothing to push the Soup lynch? Gheb is right in that the majority of Ryker's reads have been related to activity which IS a convenient stance to take.
Also I want to bring attention to this Ryker post. He was trying to promote the idea that a Ruy lynch would be valuable. He specifically thinks Ruy is not alligned with Gheb. How come on D2 Ryker believes Ruy to be town now? Especially with the fact that he supported Ruy's lynch yesterday and given Gheb's town flip, wouldn't that mean he should still think Ruy is at best null today?
Where did the Ryu town read come from?
He also now has this scumread on Zen (another completely 180 from d1), based on reasoning that is primarily that Zen hasn't really given any reasoning behind his Soup townRead. I think this applies to Ryker even moreso as he has barely given any reasoning behind any of his reads. The reads that he did have seem to fluctuate without real reason and his reads don't seem to be affecting his actions at all.
So yea, these reasons, along with Gheb/Bardull's dislike of the slot is the reason I have scum read on ryker. His interactions with Soup (the heavy scumread that didn't amount to anything) is also weird and I can see them being partners.
For the majority of this game I thought this slot was town. His activity combined with the transparency in his posts all pushed me in the direction of Vult Town. In direct contrast to Ryker, I felt like could get a sense of why Vult's reads were the way they were. My read was so strong that it led to me kind of overlooking the majority of the annoying things I found with this slot.
After looking at Bardull's death, and rereading posts from both Gheb and Bardull, my town read on Vult evaporated. Zen makes a bunch of great points in his recent post about Vult. Like Ryker, many of Vults reads have changed without much explanation. He initially said D1 that he would not support a Gheb, Ryker or Zen lynch but then he eventually does go on to vote Gheb:
In any case I'd really like yo to rethink your Ryu read. I saw you've had him as town for a while but I want you to re-review and see if your opinion changes.
Ryu > Mac are my preferences.
Maven is a second choice and Soup idk yet.
I'm not going to vote against Gheb* or Zen or Ryker.
I'm leaning town on Bardull but he's actively working against me soooo i would rather have him dead than a no lynch.
*even though gheb said bardull's points are good?? i'm a little bit offended honestly. maybe he didn't read them carefully?? gheb plz
Xivii
this is a throwback but: a few pages back I took Gheb saying he wanted to add pressure to the Bardull L-1 at face value and liked and accepted it and moved on.
Soon after you point out some of Gheb's contradictory attitudes about the wagon. And reasons why I should not have taken gheb as seriously. (which I should have read more carefully and discussed with you more but i digress).
But in your next reads post (#117) you bump Gheb up to a 50% when before that you had him as very scum (like 80% ). I'd like to know why.
--
no one asked for it but my update on my Maven read is that he's giving me mixed signals. I actually 'liked' his #217 but I think it was mostly because we were on the same page regarding Mac (in that his case on Ryker is a reach)
but in retrospect I do disagree with his reason for not liking Zen (I'm not convinced Zen was lying about Gheb saying "haha" or whatever to achieve anything). It also bothered me that he put a town read on Ryu "through his content".
but i do give him a lot of points for being anti-mac.
you did post about why gheb looked better to you but it doesn't seem to fit the timeframe. your read made a big change during a period of time where is not only didn't post, but you actively made posts against him
in short bardull is out of his mind but might be town, zen is tentatively still on my good side, gheb is okay but losing points, mac needs to go, soup probably needs to go unless i missed something important, maven i like and dislike simultaneously, ryu bothers me a little bit but could get redemption and also there are bigger fish to fry
he's been present much more than eg bardull/soup. fluctuates like ryu, but i remember him asking questions whereas i remember there was a notable period of time where ryu was just answering things.
idk i'll reread him tomorrow but like mac's point about ryker's rvs whatever stuff was just so silly to me and i'm surprised you bought into it
While I disagree with the reasoning in a lot of these, at least the evolution of Vult's thought processes are pretty clear. Most of his posts are also similar to this which is why I feel ok with his slot.
I do dislike his overconfidence in us having this game won and the fact that Bardull / Gheb disliked this slot is enough to move him from town to null. But I'm not leaning scumVult at this point so I don't think he should be a lynch for today.
I will note that it's frustrating to have this slot continually dismiss any points I make about Ryker and call me out for having bad reads. Especially given that their reads haven't been the greatest. I'm not sure what Ryker has done that makes Vult feel strongly about RykerTown.
At this point I'm kind of tired of going in depth on people's slots. Ruy joined the Gheb wagon pretty late. To his credit he always supported a Gheb push so his hop on the wagon doesn't feel that opportunistic.
He's also been scumreading Soup since yesterDay, and his fervent support of soup's lynch today makes sense as an extension of that.
I don't particularly like anything this slot has done, but I also don't explicitly dislike his actions.
Soup has been by far the least active member in the game and his lynch is merited based on that. His weird connections to Ryker and Zen, as well as the majority of town supporting his lynch is also another reason why he in my opinion is a solid scum candidate.
He started the game relatively active but after a failed back and forth with Bardull decided to lurk the rest of the game. This is gross.
I have generally agreed with the few posts that he's made, but as scum it would be easy for him to just lurk hardbody and then every so often make a couple of posts that come off correct after seeing how the rest of town felt. A lot of his posts have felt non committal. For example he apparently didn't support the Gheb wagon but he also did nothing to prevent it from happening.
His hammer is gross, but unfortunately I can see him doing this as town as he's no stranger to having bad hammers (e.g: Legend of Mana Mafia)
Regardless of my reads post, I think we should just force out the claims so that we can start focusing our scumhunting efforts
I claim Vanilla Townie (sorry vult for giving you **** when you claimed it earlier. There's no reason to wait for us to come up with a customized claim order if scum is forced to claim VT anyways)
Also, claiming blows chunks because we have a crumb that no one is going to find that will be a hard sell for scum to beat. In a scenario like this, it should be in the masons' hands to choose to claim or not, not in the hands of the VTs. You don't have the entire picture.
I don't think it's necessary for the other Mason to out. Only a CC is there is one. Ryker can lead the lynch today so we know we aren't voting his partner.
Also I'll answer any questions you may have about my actions. You're wrong on me, which means it's possible you're wrong on soup as well. You ought to consider the alternatives before flip.
I mean of course... though in retrospect it explains a lot.
There was a period of time after D1 ended where I was considering that Ryker might be a mason for a plethora of reasons. Some actions later in D2 made me change my mind.
anyway, in a complete 180 from my reads post, Red Ryu is my biggest scumread atm. Followed by soup.
re: Zen's post
> I started off voting Maven because I wasn't sure which direction to take between him and Soup D1.
> When you tried to divert me me to look at other players when I asked you directly about Soup, I realized you had other interests. you were taking advantage of my townread on you to protect your partner. I believe you thought I would let it go and start looking at Ryu or Mac again after you so kindly reminded me that I didn't like them previously.
> It was a coincidence that Ryu and Ryker flipped on you before I did. I literally reviewed the same posts Ryker quoted in his 'wall' that very night. I was going to do a write up that following morning and was surprised that they both had said everything I wanted to. It looks opportunistic but you should think of it as simultaneous.
anyway this post is really for Mac and Maven I guess. i'm not trying to sell myself as town to Zen or Soup (no offense!)
