Fire and Lightning Mafia 3: New Mods vs Old Mods! - Game Over New Mods win!

[#HBC | Nabe]

Lady von Whippingberg
Go back to making Phoenix Wright posts, it's too early.

Toxic Behaviour
Who do you think is most likely to make a heated joke about your name being accurate to your play?
Are you still going to buddy me?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Pokechu come back

 

[Fire Emblemier]

"each phase"

What makes you believe that this is going to be a reoccurring thing?

Also, why are you diving into the speculation of if Scum volunteered one of their own? Specifically going out of your way to shoot it down?

As long as both scum factions are around we have the capping system, so until we get rid of one of the factions it's best to try to use the system to our advantage, I just don't think scum targeting their own faction is likely, though I could be wrong or they may even take the risk.

Talking about possible outcomes for the system allows us to eventually narrow down hopefully everyone's alignment. With flips detailing the player's alignment and the faction that targeted them we can make a chart determining those who have been targeted by each scum faction, as well as infer what alignment for those that survived. All I'm saying is keeping a record of all this is beneficial to town. To give an example:
Say Pokechu dies and Toxic lives tonight
In this example, pokechu flips as town and was targeted by scum team 1. Which means Toxic was targeted by scum team 2, which makes him less likely to be part of scum team 2. (though not impossible)
Eventually, we will build up a record of who targeted who, that means once a faction is eliminated and we move on to the scum team night killing, we can use the list to help gauge someone's potential towniness or scumminess even more effectively. As not only do we have flips and general reads, but also pairings to help us. I hope what I'm saying makes sense.

 

[Lady von Whippingberg]

Lady von Whippingberg
Go back to making Phoenix Wright posts, it's too early.

Lol no.

As long as both scum factions are around we have the capping system, so until we get rid of one of the factions it's best to try to use the system to our advantage, I just don't think scum targeting their own faction is likely, though I could be wrong or they may even take the risk.

Talking about possible outcomes for the system allows us to eventually narrow down hopefully everyone's alignment. With flips detailing the player's alignment and the faction that targeted them we can make a chart determining those who have been targeted by each scum faction, as well as infer what alignment for those that survived. All I'm saying is keeping a record of all this is beneficial to town. To give an example:
Say Pokechu dies and Toxic lives tonight
In this example, pokechu flips as town and was targeted by scum team 1. Which means Toxic was targeted by scum team 2, which makes him less likely to be part of scum team 2. (though not impossible)
Eventually, we will build up a record of who targeted who, that means once a faction is eliminated and we move on to the scum team night killing, we can use the list to help gauge someone's potential towniness or scumminess even more effectively. As not only do we have flips and general reads, but also pairings to help us. I hope what I'm saying makes sense.

I mean sure, but why automatically assume that we will get an incap after every Night phase? We have zero evidence of this beyond that it happened N0. So it's a weird piece of speculation.

Also your reasoning does make some sense for the analysis of incap targets, but you conveniently dodged why it was so important to shoot down the "scum self volunteer" theory.

Your theory also relies on the idea that we will continually have incaps, and again, we have zero evidence that this is the case. Why automatically assume this and even make it a cornerstone of your theory?

 

[Fire Emblemier]

Lol no.



I mean sure, but why automatically assume that we will get an incap after every Night phase? We have zero evidence of this beyond that it happened N0. So it's a weird piece of speculation.

Also your reasoning does make some sense for the analysis of incap targets, but you conveniently dodged why it was so important to shoot down the "scum self volunteer" theory.

Your theory also relies on the idea that we will continually have incaps, and again, we have zero evidence that this is the case. Why automatically assume this and even make it a cornerstone of your theory?

Read the sample scum role on the opening post, the scum factions ability is to selct someone to cap each night. Nightkills will only start once a scum faction is eliminated.

 

[Wright & Co. Law Offices]

Game start, game start! Wake up, Nick! Z25

 

[Fire Emblemier]

Also in regards to me not thinking the scum volunteering won't happen, it still could actually happen. I just don't think its that likely as its a high risk low reward move.

 

[Wright & Co. Law Offices]

Uncap: Pokechu
Vote: Wright & Co. Law Offices

This time I will defeat you, Phoenix Wright.

Uh oh, it seems Von Karma hasn't changed much...hopefully she's on our side this time around.

Lady von Whippingberg
Go back to making Phoenix Wright posts, it's too early.

This seems like a fair line of questioning, though! You're very quick to come to your buddy's defense without letting this play out!

FoS: Nabe-kun

 

[Lady von Whippingberg]

Read the sample scum role on the opening post, the scum factions ability is to selct someone to cap each night. Nightkills will only start once a scum faction is eliminated.

This is fair, I tend to skim sample PMs unfortunately. Sorry Red Ryu.

Also in regards to me not thinking the scum volunteering won't happen, it still could actually happen. I just don't think its that likely as its a high risk low reward move.

While true, it's a giant pile of WIFOM to dive into this early and for not much real reason.

 

[Lady von Whippingberg]

(Also I'd totally role play the Von Karma bits but I sadly don't have gifs handy. Plus work blocks imgur and similar sites, which would make it tricky during the week. )

 

[Lady von Whippingberg]

^that was NeoTermina, the artist formerly known as Werekill btw!

 

[Z25]

Sorry I'm late, didn't realize we began.

I do have to say though,

#HBC | Nabe might just win the best avatar award for this game.

 

[Z25]

Sorry I'm late, didn't realize we began.

I do have to say though,

#HBC | Nabe might just win the best avatar award for this game.

oh and now back to Hydraing.

 

[Toxic Behaviour]

Toxic Behaviour Toxic Behaviour
Who do you think is most likely to make a heated joke about your name being accurate to your play?

well obviously

why do you think the name is as it is?

Are you still going to buddy me?

we'll see if i survive the day



on a tangent, i swear you all better stay in your hydras and only type using singular pronouns to describe yourselves.

 

[Toxic Behaviour]

Uncap Toxic

 

[Pythag]

pythag at what point did you realize moydow was one of Lady von Whippingberg

As soon as she replied.

But I was looking at the first list that Ryu posted, so I grabbed a name that I hadn't seen post yet. I was sloppy in my reading.

was immediately shamed. wygd.

What's even worse is that I spent a long time going through the thread trying to find who decided to hydra with who, only later to see it was already posted in their profile. LIVE AND LEARN.

So here are my assumptions.
Assuming 2 mafia per faction, that gives us 4 mafia.
Assuming there are 2 PR for town (Cop, Doc)

Mafia has a 2/11 (9-10%) chance of hitting another mafia, and an equal chance at hitting a town PR.

we already knew it's an incredibly low chance that both mafia factions incapped each other.



This all being said, There's a very high chance that Pokechu and Toxic are both town. (Also, I'm inferring when Tom said that these were essentially mafia kills)

This would make their selection of a lynch much more...clean? I can't say reliable, but I'd be much more willing to follow our two almost confirmed townies lead a lynch.

with all my assumptions, there's a 4/11 chance that there's a mafia amidst the remaining players.

I think NL is a bad idea, because that's a guaranteed 0% chance of getting a mafia.
I also think the closest we have to confirmed are the incaps. I'm ok with seeing how things play out, and following them on a RL.

UNVOTE: MOYDOW (if that vote even counted lol)
UNVOTE: UNCAP

I'm while we see more things play out, I have a question :

Are the mafia factions allowed to incap themselves?
If Pokechu and ________ are mafia, could they have voted to incap Pokechu?

It's super risky as there's no guarantee you would be voted to being saved by the town.

However, with this method of "killing", you have a chance of almost completely 'clearing' a mafia as town.

 

[Lady von Whippingberg]

I don't particularly find any reason to consider the capped players cleared yet, especially with the possibility of them taking a ballsy play and capping themselves. We need flips before we decide that.

But speaking of that, I do still find it strange that Fire Emblemier felt the need to point out how unlikely it is that a scum player would cap themselves. It's weird WIFOM to go into this early, especially when the natural assumption is that scum would never cap themselves outside of a risky play.

 

[Lady von Whippingberg]

Also yeah Pythag, I don't see anything in the sample PM pointing towards incapping themselves. Or anything not allowing it. So I'm not sure if FE bringing it up was mafia-exclusive role pm info or FE just making an assumption.

 

[giraffelasergun]

#HBC | Red Ryu Are the mafia allowed to cap themselves?

Pythag Town only has one PR and it's a Comparison Cop. It can pick two players to investigate each night and learns if they are aligned and not aligned.

Fire Emblemier Why did you vote for Lady Von Whippingberg? The vote felt a little out of left field especially since their only post at the time was #138, which is them trying to start a discussion on whether or not no lynch would be fine in this scenario.

 

[giraffelasergun]

Sky_B Pokechu Hello! How are you feeling about the game state so far?

 

[Fire Emblemier]

#HBC | Red Ryu Are the mafia allowed to cap themselves?

Pythag Town only has one PR and it's a Comparison Cop. It can pick two players to investigate each night and learns if they are aligned and not aligned.

Fire Emblemier Why did you vote for Lady Von Whippingberg? The vote felt a little out of left field especially since their only post at the time was #138, which is them trying to start a discussion on whether or not no lynch would be fine in this scenario.

Mostly a first post of the game RVS vote. It's done its job so I'll unvote.

unvote

 

[Fire Emblemier]

Also yeah Pythag, I don't see anything in the sample PM pointing towards incapping themselves. Or anything not allowing it. So I'm not sure if FE bringing it up was mafia-exclusive role pm info or FE just making an assumption.

Making an assumption, I never stated it was impossible to happen, given there's nothing to suggest they can not incap themselves I believe they can, I just think it's a very unlikely move to make.

 

[Deleted member]

I wanted to reconsider not saving Pokechu but considering he hasn't said anything yet, I guess I'll have to leave it be like that :V

I also don't believe Mafia would try to incap themselves. It's just way too risky and all they'd be doing is give a flat 50% extra chance one of them dies on that phase. Incap is still a Night kill so hitting yourself with it is just slightly less dumb than that.

Vote: Wright and Co. Law Offices

 

[Pokechu]

I'm alive

Just really busy haha

 

[Pokechu]

Will definitely try to post more today

Deadline when?

 

[Pokechu]

Can I uncap myself? I always get lynched day one LOL

uncap Chu

Can I vote Toxic too? I like them but I wanna live

 

[Fire Emblemier]

Will definitely try to post more today

Deadline when?

According to the post starting the game May 5th, 12:01 PM cst

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

#HBC | Red Ryu Are the mafia allowed to cap themselves?

Pythag Town only has one PR and it's a Comparison Cop. It can pick two players to investigate each night and learns if they are aligned and not aligned.

Fire Emblemier Why did you vote for Lady Von Whippingberg? The vote felt a little out of left field especially since their only post at the time was #138, which is them trying to start a discussion on whether or not no lynch would be fine in this scenario.

Mafia can incap any player in the game including themselves! There is no limit to the targeting.

 

[Wright & Co. Law Offices]

As soon as she replied.

But I was looking at the first list that Ryu posted, so I grabbed a name that I hadn't seen post yet. I was sloppy in my reading.

was immediately shamed. wygd.

What's even worse is that I spent a long time going through the thread trying to find who decided to hydra with who, only later to see it was already posted in their profile. LIVE AND LEARN.

So here are my assumptions.
Assuming 2 mafia per faction, that gives us 4 mafia.
Assuming there are 2 PR for town (Cop, Doc)

Mafia has a 2/11 (9-10%) chance of hitting another mafia, and an equal chance at hitting a town PR.

we already knew it's an incredibly low chance that both mafia factions incapped each other.



This all being said, There's a very high chance that Pokechu and Toxic are both town. (Also, I'm inferring when Tom said that these were essentially mafia kills)

This would make their selection of a lynch much more...clean? I can't say reliable, but I'd be much more willing to follow our two almost confirmed townies lead a lynch.

with all my assumptions, there's a 4/11 chance that there's a mafia amidst the remaining players.

I think NL is a bad idea, because that's a guaranteed 0% chance of getting a mafia.
I also think the closest we have to confirmed are the incaps. I'm ok with seeing how things play out, and following them on a RL.

UNVOTE: MOYDOW (if that vote even counted lol)
UNVOTE: UNCAP

I'm while we see more things play out, I have a question :

Are the mafia factions allowed to incap themselves?
If Pokechu and ________ are mafia, could they have voted to incap Pokechu?

It's super risky as there's no guarantee you would be voted to being saved by the town.

However, with this method of "killing", you have a chance of almost completely 'clearing' a mafia as town.

This is pretty good information to consider.

With Ryu’s experience and the style of our game, this setup would make a lot of sense. I’d say it’s probably the likeliest actually. Especially since you can’t really make this type of game that unbalanced. At least imo.

And while it is risky I don’t think we should without a doubt trust the uncaps. Will they likely be town? Probably, but scum will also probably take advantage of this line of thinking and try and trick us down the line. It’s still a tactic that people us.

However I think weather or not this comes into play depends on who’s running the scum factions. If it’s someone who’s been here awhile I could see a high risk play like incapping their teammate to advert suspicions or to maybe shake things up down the line.

I wouldn’t rate it super likely but it’s something we should consider down the line.

It’s good to discuss this though, I’m glad red clarified mafia can incap themselves day one. It’s good to have learned this earlier than later

 

[Z25]

This is pretty good information to consider.

With Ryu’s experience and the style of our game, this setup would make a lot of sense. I’d say it’s probably the likeliest actually. Especially since you can’t really make this type of game that unbalanced. At least imo.

And while it is risky I don’t think we should without a doubt trust the uncaps. Will they likely be town? Probably, but scum will also probably take advantage of this line of thinking and try and trick us down the line. It’s still a tactic that people us.

However I think weather or not this comes into play depends on who’s running the scum factions. If it’s someone who’s been here awhile I could see a high risk play like incapping their teammate to advert suspicions or to maybe shake things up down the line.

I wouldn’t rate it super likely but it’s something we should consider down the line.

It’s good to discuss this though, I’m glad red clarified mafia can incap themselves day one. It’s good to have learned this earlier than later

To clarify, the third paragraph is meant to end with use not us.

*now back to the courtroom

 

[Pythag]

I don't particularly find any reason to consider the capped players cleared yet, especially with the possibility of them taking a ballsy play and capping themselves. We need flips before we decide that.

And while it is risky I don’t think we should without a doubt trust the uncaps. Will they likely be town? Probably, but scum will also probably take advantage of this line of thinking and try and trick us down the line. It’s still a tactic that people us.

I'm not saying we should beyond a shadow of a doubt trust them. I think that's for the comparison cop to start figuring out, based on play, as well as flips.


BUT, For a D1, This is literally the only information we have, would your rather go to aimless discussion? Who would you recommend lead a lynch instead? (to counter the argument that I assume you'll have "you don't think anyone should lead a lynch", would you rather get to the lynch much more randomly? would that make you feel better?)

The mafia made their moves, Pokechu and Toxic were incapped

If this is a some super high level mafia move right now and they incapped themselves, then who are the big brains that are trying to pull the strings?
I don't see anyone falling over themselves to try to claim "We really need to save x" Actually there's been shockingly little conversation about who we should save, via Toxic or Chu. Actions / votes yes, discussion, no.

I'm much more confident in the statistics right now, as it is actual information we have to go on. ~80% chance y'all.

Here's an unofficial vote count :

Wright : (2) Shishoe, Lady
Zeke : (1) Toxic
Fire : (1) Tom
No Lynch : (1) Nintendofreak

Unofficial uncap count :

Toxic : (2) Toxic, Shishoe
Pokechu : (5) Giraffe, Zeke, Lady, Tom


Nintendofreak could you expound more on why you want a NL?

Is there any reasoning behind why so many voted for pokechu to be uncapped ?

#HBC | Nabe I love democracy. Got any thoughts for me?

 

[Toxic Behaviour]

I'm yet to see any reason why people want me to die today. Maybe it's because Poyzin pretending to be confrontational comes off as scummy and defensive. Maybe it's because Pokechu hasn't been posting, and so voting against him doesn't tell you anything. Maybe part of it is that the same people who wanted me dead Night 0 are still keen to have me die today. But the reason doesn't really matter. We have less than 24 hours left, and even if Pokechu is town, keeping him alive isn't worth me dying. Sorry but that's the way it is.

 

[Deleted member]

Honestly,

I'm not saying we should beyond a shadow of a doubt trust them. I think that's for the comparison cop to start figuring out, based on play, as well as flips.


BUT, For a D1, This is literally the only information we have, would your rather go to aimless discussion? Who would you recommend lead a lynch instead? (to counter the argument that I assume you'll have "you don't think anyone should lead a lynch", would you rather get to the lynch much more randomly? would that make you feel better?)

The mafia made their moves, Pokechu and Toxic were incapped

If this is a some super high level mafia move right now and they incapped themselves, then who are the big brains that are trying to pull the strings?
I don't see anyone falling over themselves to try to claim "We really need to save x" Actually there's been shockingly little conversation about who we should save, via Toxic or Chu. Actions / votes yes, discussion, no.

I'm much more confident in the statistics right now, as it is actual information we have to go on. ~80% chance y'all.

Here's an unofficial vote count :

Wright : (2) Shishoe, Lady
Zeke : (1) Toxic
Fire : (1) Tom
No Lynch : (1) Nintendofreak

Unofficial uncap count :

Toxic : (2) Toxic, Shishoe
Pokechu : (5) Giraffe, Zeke, Lady, Tom


Nintendofreak could you expound more on why you want a NL?

Is there any reasoning behind why so many voted for pokechu to be uncapped ?

#HBC | Nabe I love democracy. Got any thoughts for me?

Hmm, honestly I originally voted for Pokechu due to the jokes he makes sometimes about being prom queen and at the time he only had one vote alongside Toxic so at the time it wasn't much of an issue.

Also, now that you mention it. Pokechu is close to 7 without any new info might be a good idea to just unvote at least momentarily as Im unsure if day is over if Pokechu gets majority.

UnVote:Uncap

I'm yet to see any reason why people want me to die today. Maybe it's because Poyzin pretending to be confrontational comes off as scummy and defensive. Maybe it's because Pokechu hasn't been posting, and so voting against him doesn't tell you anything. Maybe part of it is that the same people who wanted me dead Night 0 are still keen to have me die today. But the reason doesn't really matter. We have less than 24 hours left, and even if Pokechu is town, keeping him alive isn't worth me dying. Sorry but that's the way it is.

Care to elaborate?

 

[Pokechu]

I'm yet to see any reason why people want me to die today. Maybe it's because Poyzin pretending to be confrontational comes off as scummy and defensive. Maybe it's because Pokechu hasn't been posting, and so voting against him doesn't tell you anything. Maybe part of it is that the same people who wanted me dead Night 0 are still keen to have me die today. But the reason doesn't really matter. We have less than 24 hours left, and even if Pokechu is town, keeping him alive isn't worth me dying. Sorry but that's the way it is.

Why is keeping me alive not worth you dying? That's definitely subjective. You are the more active player, but it's day one, so hard reads are unlikely to be made on either of us. What basis makes you more worthy of living?

 

[Pokechu]

I don't particularly find any reason to consider the capped players cleared yet, especially with the possibility of them taking a ballsy play and capping themselves. We need flips before we decide that.

But speaking of that, I do still find it strange that Fire Emblemier felt the need to point out how unlikely it is that a scum player would cap themselves. It's weird WIFOM to go into this early, especially when the natural assumption is that scum would never cap themselves outside of a risky play.

I'm fine with FE for now, I think it's just his style to say natural assumptions like that, I kind of like it! It helps to just like lay out facts and just get your mind going, it clears your head and it's a start at least for Day 1 (especially one like this where people have to choose between two slots that are both likely town, and also agree to vote another slot out). Plus he has a Legendary Lucina avatar, so he's on my good side!

 

[Pokechu]

I'm fine with FE for now, I think it's just his style to say natural assumptions like that, I kind of like it! It helps to just like lay out facts and just get your mind going, it clears your head and it's a start at least for Day 1 (especially one like this where people have to choose between two slots that are both likely town, and also agree to vote another slot out). Plus he has a Legendary Lucina avatar, so he's on my good side!

And I don't think WIFOM this early is bad either, I think it might help? Since Toxic and I were incapped Night 0, it's not as if the mafia made their decisions on any plays we made. So in this case it might help to think "okay, who of these players would choose to incap me?" because it's likely to be people who've known your plays in the past (so that way they can judge whether you're a good choice to knock out early, etc).

 

[Pokechu]

And I don't think WIFOM this early is bad either, I think it might help? Since Toxic and I were incapped Night 0, it's not as if the mafia made their decisions on any plays we made. So in this case it might help to think "okay, who of these players would choose to incap me?" because it's likely to be people who've known your plays in the past (so that way they can judge whether you're a good choice to knock out early, etc).

ebwop whoops forgot this piece LOL

although in this game it might be a bit harder due to all of the hydras, like for example Moy I'd say has a good history of me, I've played with her since like July I think, but NeoTermina (forgot to say earlier btw, cool name change!) does not, we've only played once, so would they go for me? Not sure.

 

[Toxic Behaviour]

Care to elaborate?

I'm a stronger player than Pokechu.

Why is keeping me alive not worth you dying? That's definitely subjective. You are the more active player, but it's day one, so hard reads are unlikely to be made on either of us. What basis makes you more worthy of living?

It's not about reads. It's about the ability to actually win the game.

I don't want you to die, you're one of the people I wanted to play with this game. But it has to be me or you.

 

[Pokechu]

I'm a stronger player than Pokechu.

What? no way!!!!

see!!! here's my trophy case. I'm a really strong player!

Spoiler

and here are all of my medals!!!!

Spoiler

LOL

nawwww honestly I don't think we're that far apart in skill at least! And I think we have strengths and weaknesses the other doesn't, so going purely on "who's better me or him" isn't really solid imo. Some games you (using this generally of course LOL ) can do well in, some you might kind of flop. So it's kind of shaky ground I think to say "I've done better than him in the past. So I'll do better now." since you might not! I might have to flex my muscles on you....

 

[Pokechu]

oh well hmmm you could make the argument that you're two people.... and I'm only one!!!

so if we lynch you, technically we're losing two (possible) townies....

it's over guys. day end. uncap toxic

LOL