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Fire and Lightning Mafia 3: New Mods vs Old Mods! - Game Over New Mods win!

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z25 | BarDulL
I mean you could argue that Tom/Pythag weren't cleared, but the chances of Toxic landing a bingo on them both is just wild.

sorry for not responding before, but sure you can.

GLG’s posting activity is a little odd to me. He had come on day one asked a bunch of questions and then just fades away. Which I don’t know if there were posts missing because of the day one drama but if there were then that would explain it a bit.

It just seemed like they wanted to seem active then just vanished. And in the aftermath of yesterday and the discussions day they’ve been inactive despite their usual high activity.

It has me on the fence about them but the topic has shifted to other things now and I want to go over the record again and see what information von karma’s posts give us and how that debate holds up!

It’s a lot to read and take in, but if I have a chance tonight I’ll give some more thoughts.
Ignore the first part here.

My browser messed up and seemed to take something from the thread from when I was re reading stuff and catching up.
 
Joined
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z25 | BarDulL
Ignore the first part here.

My browser messed up and seemed to take something from the thread from when I was re reading stuff and catching up.
That first sentence is from an early draft of mine LOL!

Anyway, my take on Von Karma is...they've dug themselves (or at least one of them has) very deep into a hole that I don't think they can climb out of. They're a pretty big distraction and I wouldn't mind seeing them be the play today. My only qualm is that we'd be lynching the distraction over the individuals who held the keys at the end of D1. But that's the only qualm.
 

Nintendofreak

Smash Cadet
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42
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Would a comparison cop who selected New Mod and an Old Mod one night, see them as the same alignment?
 

Nintendofreak

Smash Cadet
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Sorry for butting in with non pertinent questions. Just trying to make sure I have all my ducks in a row.
 

#HBC | Nabe

Beneath it all, he had H-cups all along
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Half this hydra has a very long history with Tom, to put it mildly. Same with Pythag. With that said, this is a weird point to make. You go out of your way to more or less say that Tom is the stronger player between the two without actually saying it, while also complimenting Pythag (the living confirmed town player). It's a weird tone in general.
It's not out of my way -- it informs the state of the game. Tom isn't necessarily the better player, but he's the bigger one.

On your second point, saying it is a 25% chance is misleading at best. There's also the strong possibility that, having two confirmed town players, scum may have picked someone outside the two. They want to scum hunt too. There are two scum factions. Your statistic is false, misleading, and fails to consider any alternative possibility.
That's not misleading. If scum didn't go outside of Tom and Pythag, there are four combinations of the two, one of which is the Tom-Tom pick that results in a dead Tom. That's 25%. And while stating that, I specifically said, "assuming that scum didn't intend to go outside of Tom and Pythag," acknowledging that possibility, and then gave reasoning as to why it's a good bet that scum never would've intended to look elsewhere. It is certainly true that they may have looked at other players, but that would be dumb, and as a rule you shouldn't assume that scum is defeating themselves. Being presented with Tom and Pythag as same-faction cop targets, scum aren't going to assume they can sell the two as a connected scumteam. They're going to set to work incapping the pair to scrub them from the player list.


I'd also like to be on record saying that I despise the "force mafia to finish their job" point. No. The Cap is essentially a Night Kill, meaning we had one Night Kill N0. Forcing them into nightkilling their second cap rather than hoping for another incap means that we would just be 2 nightkills down going into N2. That's bad.
What are you talking about? Two players were always going to be dead from incaps going into N2. The difference here is, you chose to get rid of a cop claimant over unknown-alignment Pokechu, preventing both the slight possibility that Toxic would live long enough to make another comparison, and the possibility that Toxic was scum and wouldn't be killed by a double incap.



Woah woah woah. Woah. Stop here.

I don't recall a single moment where either hydra head said that the Uncap: Chu was due to suspecting Toxic of a bluff.
I never said that you did. Shish brought up the possibility that Toxic was scum bluffing in 366, and 379 is in response to that,

You're being intentionally misleading here, and I'm comfortable parking my vote on you for now. Especially after my spreadsheet post that is coming up next, where I lay out more reasons why I'm suspicious of your slot (and a few others).

I was going to wait until after the post to really dive and figure out who I dislike most from my pool, but you just rocketed to the top with these intentionally misleading statements.
As I've clearly demonstrated above, I'm not being misleading whatsoever. You're posturing against a well-reasoned vote by using buzzwords and, amusingly, by making misleading statements that disregard plain fact. If you made a mistake in uncapping Chu and didn't fully understand the facts, just say so. If you are town, don't try to cushion it with more bad play.
 

giraffelasergun

Smash Lord
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Oct 20, 2010
Messages
1,173
Hi I'm here. I worked 12 hour shifts today and yesterday so I've been a bit tired/busy, but things should lighten up tomorrow so I should be more active during the day.

Fire Emblemier. They questioned the setup, voted for Zeke, and went for the Cop Cap. They questioned the setup more heavily than almost anyone else, which I believe I even questioned them about earlier.
Wright (*whip crack*). They questioned the cop cap, voted Zeke, and uncapped Toxic.
Giraffe. They questioned the setup, voted zeke, and uncapped toxic.
Shishoe. They questioned setup, voted Zeke, and uncapped toxic.
Nabe. They questioned the cop cap, voted Zeke, and uncapped Toxic.
These are the players that I believe should be focused on. There is zero chance of scum not being among one of them, otherwise we are dealing with a truly incompetent pair of scum teams. Nabe is my current top choice, which I will go into in my next post for a more digestible read.
I think my biggest issue with this list is that you essentially list everyone that has posted more than three times and is not confirmed town as a player that is suspicious in this game. I don't think it's a great look that you're essentially casting doubt on every active player at once, and it makes me want to look more closely at your slot. Also, maybe I'm misreading this, but it seems that you're using both "uncapping toxic" and "uncapping pokechu" as reasons to view someone as suspicious. It kind of puts people in a darned if they do and darned if they don't situation.
 

#HBC | Nabe

Beneath it all, he had H-cups all along
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Questioning cop cap means that the player questioned my reasoning (or other peoples' reasoning) for the cop cap, specifically calling people out the reasoning instead of just idly voting. Pythag and Tom both did this, but they're town and excluded. Setting up a lynch by questioning the cop cap is, quite frankly, the easiest mislynch setup in existence. It practically writes itself. Therefore, I believe that we will have at minimum one scum on that questioning train.
You don't specifically mention me and Wright in this paragraph, but given that we're the only two in the column of the spreadsheet, you're saying here that you think there's for sure (minimum!) one scum between me and Wright, if not both slots.

There must be more basis to that strong assertion than just your simplistic mechanical viewpoint of, "That sure would be a good way to set up a mislynch!" Right? Because that not only ignores the strong logic presented in questioning killing the cop, but it's a broken sentiment. One sentence earlier you tossed out Tom and Pythag doing the same thing because as town, they don't fit the argument you're trying to make that the action is somehow scummy enough to make one of me or Wright be scum.
 

giraffelasergun

Smash Lord
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I would like to hear thoughts on Nabe vs Lady Von Whippingberg situation from those that haven't appeared in the thread today.

Pokechu Pokechu
Nintendofreak Nintendofreak
giraffelasergun giraffelasergun
Sky_B Sky_B

I would like to hear from you guys.
I'm putting Nabe as my second most likely person to be town at this point. When you made this post and most the discussion was focused on whether or not we should have saved pokechu or Toxic yesterday, I agreed with Nabe's POV, but at the very least understood the logic behind Lady Whip's decision. Since the conversation has continued, I think Lady Whip has said some things that I find suspicious. What are your thoughts on the situation?

Do want more out of pokechu/sky/nintendo, and hopefully we'll get something from them before the day ends!
 

#HBC | Nabe

Beneath it all, he had H-cups all along
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So we have a pool of people that I am suspicious of through game logic, and I firmly believe that my conclusions are sound. To form this pool, I grabbed anyone who had major overlaps in these columns. These are the players that I believe should be looked at more closely.

Fire Emblemier. They questioned the setup, voted for Zeke, and went for the Cop Cap. They questioned the setup more heavily than almost anyone else, which I believe I even questioned them about earlier.

Wright (*whip crack*). They questioned the cop cap, voted Zeke, and uncapped Toxic.

Giraffe. They questioned the setup, voted zeke, and uncapped toxic.

Shishoe. They questioned setup, voted Zeke, and uncapped toxic.

Nabe. They questioned the cop cap, voted Zeke, and uncapped Toxic.


These are the players that I believe should be focused on. There is zero chance of scum not being among one of them, otherwise we are dealing with a truly incompetent pair of scum teams. Nabe is my current top choice, which I will go into in my next post for a more digestible read.
Not to beat a dead horse, I just think this is funny.

You've chosen a group of five players here, out of the remaining ten. Of the five not on your list, one is Pythag, the town clear. So if scum isn't in these five, then the remaining four players are scum, and that group includes you.

Pokechu Pokechu Sky_B Sky_B Nintendofreak Nintendofreak Come defend your honour.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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VoteCount:
(1) GLG: Wright & Co Law Offices
(1) Shish: Lady Von Whippingberg
(3) Lady Von Whippingberg: Pytrag, Nabe, Shish
(1) Nabe: Lady Von Whippingberg

Poking Sky_B Sky_B Pokechu Pokechu

Will be replacing Sky_B if he does not post by days end.

Deadline is 8:05pm cst 5/8, wish I could keep a more consistent vote count like I used to be able to.
 
Last edited:

Pokechu

chugga chugga
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aaaaaa I'm alive!!!! college finals just SUCK

yall I need an 85 to get an A in the class.... wish me luck.... XOXO :( pour one out for a fallen soldier
 

Lady von Whippingberg

Foolish fools!
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I've pretty much said every side of my own case, and there's not much left to really say.

I've stated my scumpool, which does not just include the most active players. It's a solid starting point, and I firmly believe that Scum is among them. Nabe is my top pick due to my previous statements.


I refuse to self vote or anything like that, but this Hydra Head doesn't have much else to say. I'm pretty sure that scum is using the tunneling of Pythag (no offense man) to hop on an easy mislynch.

Please do not take this as an Appeal to Emotion. I merely want the facts of my statements to stand on their own, and at this point I'd just be repeating myself to argue further. You either believe me or not at this point.


I do have one minor correction though, and a question:

What are you talking about? Two players were always going to be dead from incaps going into N2. The difference here is, you chose to get rid of a cop claimant over unknown-alignment Pokechu, preventing both the slight possibility that Toxic would live long enough to make another comparison, and the possibility that Toxic was scum and wouldn't be killed by a double incap.
This was due to a typo, D2 was meant to be in my initial quote and not N2. I do not intend to respond to the rest, for the above stated reasons plus my previously said belief that you are misleading scum, no offense.


That first sentence is from an early draft of mine LOL!

Anyway, my take on Von Karma is...they've dug themselves (or at least one of them has) very deep into a hole that I don't think they can climb out of. They're a pretty big distraction and I wouldn't mind seeing them be the play today. My only qualm is that we'd be lynching the distraction over the individuals who held the keys at the end of D1. But that's the only qualm.
If I'm just "a pretty big distraction," who are the "individuals who held the keys?" This is a weird phrasing, and I'd like to ask who you mean by this.
 

Lady von Whippingberg

Foolish fools!
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This is also a note for future Days, these posts stuck out to me.


You don't specifically mention me and Wright in this paragraph, but given that we're the only two in the column of the spreadsheet, you're saying here that you think there's for sure (minimum!) one scum between me and Wright, if not both slots.

There must be more basis to that strong assertion than just your simplistic mechanical viewpoint of, "That sure would be a good way to set up a mislynch!" Right? Because that not only ignores the strong logic presented in questioning killing the cop, but it's a broken sentiment. One sentence earlier you tossed out Tom and Pythag doing the same thing because as town, they don't fit the argument you're trying to make that the action is somehow scummy enough to make one of me or Wright be scum.
Note how Nabe zeros in to their own defense here. They even point out that I don't specifically mention them in the paragraph.

I believe I've already stated this (please correct me if I'm wrong), but Tom and Pythag being Town and questioning the cop cap just shows that scum could hop on the logic of two confirmed town players. It's literally the world's easiest mislynch to set up right now.

So this post is noted, for being a bit odd of a dive in.


Hi I'm here. I worked 12 hour shifts today and yesterday so I've been a bit tired/busy, but things should lighten up tomorrow so I should be more active during the day.



I think my biggest issue with this list is that you essentially list everyone that has posted more than three times and is not confirmed town as a player that is suspicious in this game. I don't think it's a great look that you're essentially casting doubt on every active player at once, and it makes me want to look more closely at your slot. Also, maybe I'm misreading this, but it seems that you're using both "uncapping toxic" and "uncapping pokechu" as reasons to view someone as suspicious. It kind of puts people in a darned if they do and darned if they don't situation.
Please also note how Giraffe here doesn't actually call out my play, but instead Giraffe is going against my scum pool in general. Not my play, but my reads. Giraffe was also within that pool.

Meanwhile the only other thing Giraffe has said (after returning) is that I've "said some things that look suspicious." So Giraffe can go in great depth against my scum pool, but not my so-called scum behavior? This is fishy as hell.
 

Lady von Whippingberg

Foolish fools!
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My top three from that scum pool, in terms of who I'd like to see looked into later:

1. Nabe, for previously stated reasons.

2. Giraffe, for that extremely strange post against my scum pool and not my play.

3. Shishoe, for being a bit vague on some reasoning and having to pressure to get specifics.
 

#HBC | Nabe

Beneath it all, he had H-cups all along
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I refuse to self vote or anything like that
Why would you self-vote? No one expects that, or wants it.


I'm pretty sure that scum is using the tunneling of Pythag (no offense man) to hop on an easy mislynch.
Assuming this is referring to me, nah. I told you it was the wrong move before D1 was over, and made my opinion clear at the start of D2, prior to Pythag posting.

I do not intend to respond ... for the above stated reasons plus my previously said belief that you are misleading scum, no offense.
Offense. If you're town, argue a real case on someone. Don't sit around and be intentionally meaningless, assuming that your death is going to convince people of your scumreads. If you flip town, my reasoning was still valid, but you didn't take the hint that you made the wrong play, and that toDay was the day to turn on your gameplay. This Day could have ended up on Shish or GLG (your #2 and #3 in 419) and still could end up there, or elsewhere if you're especially compelling. But instead you're laying down, and that's not pro-town play.

If I'm just "a pretty big distraction," who are the "individuals who held the keys?" This is a weird phrasing, and I'd like to ask who you mean by this.
+1

Note how Nabe zeros in to their own defense here. They even point out that I don't specifically mention them in the paragraph.
In the paragraph we're discussing, you made a very strong statement about there being one scum between me and Wright. But as a result of you not mentioning the two of us by name, that statement falls under the radar, and with it slips the simplistic, flawed, mechanical argument that you were making to back it up. By pointing that out, I'm highlighting the scummy basis you have for picking me over the other four scumspects on your list. And it should be noted, while I'm at number 1 on your current three-player scum list (419), Wright isn't at number 2, and in fact isn't even on it. You've dropped the "must be Nabe or Wright" argument now that it's served your purpose of fleshing out a vote.
 

Nintendofreak

Smash Cadet
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Ohio
What's the point of thaf question in the first place?

Anyways, what do you think of Lady Whip?
My initial train of thought was thinking if all 4 scum were aligned the same (according to the cop) we might need to think differently, but I realized that it doesn't matter since we know that Tom was town. I know I've been in the background mostly, but this is definitely a different way to play mafia than I'm used to.

I don't have a history with people, and it seems some players know each other, so I'm trying to figure out the best way to be present, but not seem like a complete fool. This kinda ties back to my D1 "No Lynch", jumping in right away and targeting someone in a sea of unknown players seems like a good way to get targeted yourself. But I would have voted if I was actually present second half of D1, especially with all that went on.

Anyways, what do you think of Lady Whip?
I'm not completely sold on tunneling down quite yet, it seems the field has shifted mostly against Whip, though I guess we are down to the last afternoon of D2. I think some points that were brought are fair from both sides, but the biggest thing that caught my eye were Lady's chart/suspects. Obviously I'm a newer player, but I felt like I was pretty inactive D1, but I wasn't in the "chart" as a inactive, and it seems they're going against Shish for the same reason (lack of input). I'm not excusing my poor play, but it seems interesting that I wasn't mentioned as one of the "suspicious" fellows. So to me it seems Lady Whip has it out for specific players more so than the best reasoning
 

Lady von Whippingberg

Foolish fools!
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I will respond to Nabe later, but Nintendofreak Nintendofreak : To be perfectly honest, I passed over all your content so far as "newbie learning the ropes" and forgot you even existed. I mean zero offense there, we have all been in the same boat before.
 

Pythag

BRoomer
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Some clarifications.

There are two scum teams. For hypothetical, let's look at this situation as if I was scum. How could I coordinate with the other team to ensure that Tom took the hit, without exposing myself? Even if I was scum, there's no way to "make the worst case scenario happen."

Your second statement makes no sense. You're saying that if it was the optimal play... me pointing it out is scummy? Again, there's no way to make the worst case happen, even as scum.
1. that's why I said try to make the worst case happen.
2. you seem to be equating logic with being town. The issue is that we can't take that at face value, because mafia is hunting mafia during the day as well


Well yeah, it wasn't guaranteed. I saw no reason to take the bet that the incapped players were automatically town. I don't even think the chance was actually 10% when you consider the fact that there are two scum teams, but I don't really want to do the math here. Point is, it wasn't guaranteed and there was no reason to call it guaranteed that early.
how on earth will you function in a game with no cop if you're looking for a guarantee? Currently you have no issue pushing a vote on nabe, despite there being no guarantee. I also said in my early posts it wasn't a guarantee, but I don't mind taking the chances on D1 that they are clear, and then having further discussion in the oncoming days.

not to mention you're arguing for a guarantee, which I believe in my very first post about it, I said "it's not a guarantee they're clear, but maybe clearER"


I'm not sure what you mean about the scum hunt during the day bit being demonstrated by flips.
You argued that scum desire to scum hunt (implication being scum will scum hunt at night)
The death of tom proves that incorrect.



Pokechu is far from exonerated due to his lack of activity, but I'm not sure how much of that is just me being against inactives. He miiiiight be ok.
this was more of a joke, wherein you dislike high percentages of success, but will spring for high risk of failure.
e.g. since I'm 0% chance of being mafia, I'm expecting you to vote for me.


Now some actual stuff :

Ok, great. I'm glad you like the spreadsheet. Whether I live or die today, priority 1 is making sure that sheet gets out there. I 100% believe that there is scum in that pool.
I think this is a non-statement, that might also be an dramatic play :
ex : Lady : "I'll fall on my sword for the greater good of this spreadsheet getting out"
The problem is that there are 10 people left (including me) (9 people if you want to play it like that)
4 of those are mafia. You almost have an equal chance of grabbing town as you do grabbing mafia in any group of 4 or 5.


Another thing that is sticking in my brain, is that Tom voted on you before switching to vote on Zeke.

Now Tom has been killed.
Maybe a better question to ask is :
why do you think Tom was targeted at all, much less by both scum teams?


@Nabe and @Lady
I think that those that hold the keys that Wright is referring to are the last few people to hammer Zeke. Re : Lady's list.

I could be wrong though
 

Pythag

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Offense. If you're town, argue a real case on someone. Don't sit around and be intentionally meaningless, assuming that your death is going to convince people of your scumreads. If you flip town, my reasoning was still valid, but you didn't take the hint that you made the wrong play, and that toDay was the day to turn on your gameplay. This Day could have ended up on Shish or GLG (your #2 and #3 in 419) and still could end up there, or elsewhere if you're especially compelling. But instead you're laying down, and that's not pro-town play.
I mean, she has argued a case on you. Whether you agree with it or not, doesn't mean she hasn't argued it.

She's also lined up the trappings of a few cases on others, see her vote list.



Also even if you DON'T like it (spoiler, I don't) , the logic does hold for not uncapping the cop.
- kill cop, lynch a rando, hope that mafia target unclear townies in an effort to kill other maifa, leaving us with our two clears
vs.
- save cop, lynch a rando, mafia kill cop, we begin D2 almost exactly like D1, but with two clears.

Lady's argument is sound logically, there was a chance that the worst wouldn't (mafia both targeting a clear townie) happen, but it did.

Now are those odds you want to take? She did. (any % is better than 0% is the main argument here I believe.)
I would have rather had two confirmed townies.
 

Pokechu

chugga chugga
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I did it

I got a 94 on my final

I now have a 91.75 in the class

This better round to a 92 otherwise the professor catching some hands tonight !!!!

Anyways I kind of liked Lady D1, I haven't fully read D2 but I'm finding them a bit hard to read since I'm not sure which posts are coming from which head

Honestly I'm feeling like it's just poor explanation on their part, I can see where they were coming from on killing Toxic because chances are they wouldn't live for long much after
 
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@Nabe and @Lady
I think that those that hold the keys that Wright is referring to are the last few people to hammer Zeke. Re : Lady's list.

I could be wrong though
That's correct. After I voted to ensure a tie wouldn't happen, additional votes weren't needed, only uncaps were needed for the Cop to live.

Given how this has played out, I'm not going to defend Lady. Does anyone think we shouldn't lynch Lady at this point?
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Vote: Nintendofreak

Most of that response to my question about Lady reads like not wanting to commit to any side while still leaving reasons to suspect them.
There's also a weird justification of their inactivity that wasn't even asked for and just smells fishy.

I still have my suspicions on Lady but Nintendofreak is bugging me more with their behaviour.
 
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You won’t defend..but you don’t sound convinced...?
The entire day phase has essentially been dedicated to this slot and while I feel like we haven't explored enough avenues, I just want the distraction to be over with. I mean, are you ever truly convinced until the flip happens?

I'm trying to put people to a decision at this point. I'm not against the flip for game progression. We're either doing this or we're not. If not, we need to explore other avenues. If yes, then let's get it over with and see who else is on board.

Vote: Nintendofreak

Most of that response to my question about Lady reads like not wanting to commit to any side while still leaving reasons to suspect them.
There's also a weird justification of their inactivity that wasn't even asked for and just smells fishy.

I still have my suspicions on Lady but Nintendofreak is bugging me more with their behaviour.
I agree with you regarding Nintendofreak.

Unrelated, can you tell me why you thought Toxic was bluffing? Like, surely there was a chance he was telling the truth, right? Wouldn't the Mafia have just killed him immediately on N1 if they felt he was telling the truth?
 
D

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Unrelated, can you tell me why you thought Toxic was bluffing? Like, surely there was a chance he was telling the truth, right? Wouldn't the Mafia have just killed him immediately on N1 if they felt he was telling the truth?
Necause of the whole "I'm so much better don't kill me" of their posts and the editing stunt(I explained this when I voted them).
Looking back on it, it makes more sense but when it happened, the claim being made and then attempting to take it back felt like a desperate attempt to save themselves with a sudden realization of why that method was a bad idea.
And yeah, if he had survived, the Mafia factions would have killed him unless they wanted to cast doubt on him but what's your point with that question?
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
And yeah, if he had survived, the Mafia factions would have killed him unless they wanted to cast doubt on him but what's your point with that question?
Meant "they/them" in all this section, oops, my bad.
 
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Necause of the whole "I'm so much better don't kill me" of their posts and the editing stunt(I explained this when I voted them).
Looking back on it, it makes more sense but when it happened, the claim being made and then attempting to take it back felt like a desperate attempt to save themselves with a sudden realization of why that method was a bad idea.
And yeah, if he had survived, the Mafia factions would have killed him unless they wanted to cast doubt on him but what's your point with that question?
I'm trying to figure out why I shouldn't tunnel you for the rest of the game, lol.
 

#HBC | Red Ryu

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VoteCount:
(1) GLG: Wright & Co Law Offices
(2) Lady Von Whippingberg: Pythag, Nabe
(1) Nabe: Lady Von Whippingberg
(1) Nintendofreak: Shish
 
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