#HBC | Nabe
Beneath it all, he had H-cups all along
It was just about what I thought was an odd use of the word 'defend'. What do you think of Fire thus far?
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Fire and Lightning Mafia 3: New Mods vs Old Mods! - Game Over New Mods win!
- Thread starter #HBC | Red Ryu
- Start date
Wright & Co. Law Offices
Smash Cadet
There's a lot of mech talk, hence my steering in #255. He also has been sitting on the fence a lot. From a meta perspective, I'm undecided. He should definitely post more content and give us more meat. A vote as well.
Lady von Whippingberg
Foolish fools!
I'm fine with putting some heat on Shish, so for now Vote: Shish
She didn't really contribute anything in day 1 except some questions about the incap system. While I'm no more familiar with it than her, it does feel like just an easy way of generating content and appearing active, while not really doing anything to further the scumhunting effort.
As for Toxic, I really do not see any possible timeline where they were still alive at the start of day 2, so there isn't really anything that can be said to convince me of the value of trying to save them. It would have required an insane blunder on the part of both scum teams to let them live when they'd made an uncontested cop claim, something so unlikely I don't think it was even worth considering.
So it was a choice between two dead and (most likely, even if it hasn't actually panned out as such) having the incap vote toDay, or three people guaranteed dead - I really don't see how the latter is more favourable, since the former still gives us the same number of flips at the start of the Day (unless Tom's flip being missing is just host error), another player alive to question and build evidence and connections off of, and the incap vote to work with. (Obviously it hasn't actually worked out as such, but I don't think this can be used against me as obviously I had no way to know Tom was going to turn up dead.)
If anything I'd say the people arguing in favour of saving Toxic, even knowing they were guaranteed dead last Night, are beginning to look more and more suspicious as time goes on. So in this area I'm looking at Nabe and GLG right now. Would have included Tom (and Pythag by extension) here too, but... Tom's flip would be pretty nice to have right about now. :b
She didn't really contribute anything in day 1 except some questions about the incap system. While I'm no more familiar with it than her, it does feel like just an easy way of generating content and appearing active, while not really doing anything to further the scumhunting effort.
As for Toxic, I really do not see any possible timeline where they were still alive at the start of day 2, so there isn't really anything that can be said to convince me of the value of trying to save them. It would have required an insane blunder on the part of both scum teams to let them live when they'd made an uncontested cop claim, something so unlikely I don't think it was even worth considering.
So it was a choice between two dead and (most likely, even if it hasn't actually panned out as such) having the incap vote toDay, or three people guaranteed dead - I really don't see how the latter is more favourable, since the former still gives us the same number of flips at the start of the Day (unless Tom's flip being missing is just host error), another player alive to question and build evidence and connections off of, and the incap vote to work with. (Obviously it hasn't actually worked out as such, but I don't think this can be used against me as obviously I had no way to know Tom was going to turn up dead.)
If anything I'd say the people arguing in favour of saving Toxic, even knowing they were guaranteed dead last Night, are beginning to look more and more suspicious as time goes on. So in this area I'm looking at Nabe and GLG right now. Would have included Tom (and Pythag by extension) here too, but... Tom's flip would be pretty nice to have right about now. :b
Wright & Co. Law Offices
Smash Cadet
The reason why we should have let Toxic be killed off by the Mafia at night is so that Pythag and Tom got to live another day. I'd have rather kept Tom and Pythag as clears with Pokechu off the board, it was the optimal play no matter how you slice it.
Lady von Whippingberg
Foolish fools!
Tom and Pythag weren't clear, though, they only shared alignment. Based on what we knew at the time, it was still possible they were scummates. I'm not sure how you manage to interpret "they have the same alignment" as "they're clear" without any other information about them to work with.
The way I see it, letting Toxic die was "the optimal play no matter how you slice it". We as town were put in a ****ty situation, all we could do was try to minimise the damage, which to me meant letting the person guaranteed to die do so, thus reducing the likelihood that we ended up with three guaranteed deaths going into toDay.
D
Deleted member
Guest
Only reason I wasn't as active as I wish I was is because I spent most of the weekend with my girlfriend. I'll try to be more active during the week when I can since it's going to be relatively lax.
On Toxic:
I didn't like Toxic's behaviour(swear this wasn't intentional) and I didn't believe their claim at all after the whole stunt they pulled. Yeah they turned out to be telling the truth but I just thought it was a bluff at the moment.
On Toxic:
I didn't like Toxic's behaviour(swear this wasn't intentional) and I didn't believe their claim at all after the whole stunt they pulled. Yeah they turned out to be telling the truth but I just thought it was a bluff at the moment.
Fire Emblemier
The Crests are to Blame
Honestly felt we were put in a pretty ****** situation yesterday. I felt at that the time the decision between keeping Toxic or Pokechu had a pretty negligible difference in terms of D2 game state, that being our cop dead by the start of D2 along with the results of our lynch from D1. I went with my gut thinking having the capping system might be more beneficial for us instead of starting D2 without the system in place. Though, I didn't take into account the possibility of the scum teams targeting the same person. My decision overall was a gut based one and I'm not sure if I made the right call, given we ended up in a situation without the capping system.
I wish I heard this yesterday, I didn't consider this. Though, they still could be scummates, but its more likely statistically they are both town.
Honestly, I was considering it might've been a bluff too. For instance, if someone else was the cop, I would've kept my mouth shut about my role for the rest of the phase. As it would allow me to gather more information that night with relatively little risk.
#HBC | Red Ryu
Red Fox Warrior
- Joined
- Jun 15, 2008
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- 27,486
- Location
- Milwaukee, Wisconsin
- NNID
- RedRyu_Smash
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- 0344-9312-3352
BarDulL
Town Vampire
It was statistically improbable that Tom and Pythag were scum together. Less than 5%. Old/new aren’t same alignment AFAIK, meaning either Toxic bingo’d an entire mafia team, or he picked out two townies.
I’m not interested in arguing this point more than necessary though. You seem too convinced of yourself in this regard. I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree.
BarDulL
Town Vampire
((Also my b, I forgot the hydra pw while on mobile so I posted from my main account lol)).
Dead tom's dead. (long john shot him)
3 townies dead, 1 being our PR.
Not a good location.
vote Lady Whip
I don't buy your reason for not uncapping Toxic.
Was toxic going to die? Yes.
BUT
I'd rather waste the mafia's turn rather than ours.
We uncap the cop, and there's actually still a chance that Pokechu is mafia.
Next day we'd be back to essentially a D1, BUT with his death confirming his role, you'd have the added benefit of two confirmed townies.
That's a lot more sway, a lot more known information.
This way, you got town to kill the cop, and you've already eliminated one of the confirmed blues. That worked out quite nicely for you didn't it?
3 townies dead, 1 being our PR.
Not a good location.
vote Lady Whip
I don't buy your reason for not uncapping Toxic.
Was toxic going to die? Yes.
BUT
I'd rather waste the mafia's turn rather than ours.
We uncap the cop, and there's actually still a chance that Pokechu is mafia.
Next day we'd be back to essentially a D1, BUT with his death confirming his role, you'd have the added benefit of two confirmed townies.
That's a lot more sway, a lot more known information.
This way, you got town to kill the cop, and you've already eliminated one of the confirmed blues. That worked out quite nicely for you didn't it?
EBWOP
I also think it's scummy how you were trying to downplay or play AGAINST the odds that those incapped were clear.
I'm not saying it was ever a guarantee, but it was literally information, and you seemed to try to sweep it under the rug or hand wave it away.
I also think it's scummy how you were trying to downplay or play AGAINST the odds that those incapped were clear.
I'm not saying it was ever a guarantee, but it was literally information, and you seemed to try to sweep it under the rug or hand wave it away.
Lady von Whippingberg
Foolish fools!
This is actually a decent point, and it's one I hadn't considered. I'm also 90% certain no one mentioned it yesterDay. Regardless, I still believe that Uncapping Pokechu was the better call for reasons previously stated, and I am ok with agreeing to disagree. Even with the logic of having the two (statistically) likely townies, it was still a choice between guaranteed 3 deaths going into D2 or 2 plus two incaps. We just got very unlucky that both scum factions picked the same player to kill.
I feel like you still aren't understanding our reasoning here. There was no "wasting the mafia's turn" UNLESS we capped Toxic. I also believe that you are arguing from a position of bias, which I will get into after the next quote.
Let's say that we uncapped Pokechu. We get Pokechu's alignment (something which doesn't help minus the slim chance that he's scum, since the Day focused so hard on Toxic's toxic behavior), and Toxic is basically guaranteed to be dead by D2. We also had a lynch. 3 guaranteed deaths, with the benefit of two players who are only confirmed to be the same alignment with nothing else.
I hadn't considered how slim of a chance it was that Toxic hit two scum, though, and you are right that it would have been beneficial. But that circles back to the bias thing, which I will get into later.
Now look at our intended scenario. We uncap Pokechu, and Toxic (who is guaranteed to die) dies overnight. We get a lynch. We then have 2 total dead players on D2, and we have more players alive than the alternative scenario. Yes there was a risk that Scum wouldn't target one of the cop results, but I saw it as more unlikely since they may instead choose to try to fish for one of the other scum team members. Unfortunately we rolled Snake Eyes on that, and I'm frustrated.
From the beginning of the game I've been concerned about raising the body count too quickly. I decided early that a No Lynch wasn't good, but the Cop cap was chosen due to that reasoning.
I'd like to kindly point out that you are in a position of heavy bias here. You were one of the cop targets, and you instantly knew that Tom was clear due to it. In your eyes, any suspicion of the cop targets was suspicion of town players.
But from my perspective, you weren't confirmed in the slightest. It wasn't a guarantee. I hadn't realized how slim of a chance it was, and I admit that. But I valued body count over potentially confirmed players, especially this early in the game.
Maybe if I realized how slim the chance was my cap would have changed, but I honestly doubt it. I would have still seen the cap Toxic play as the optimal choice albeit with slight risk of one of the cop reads being killed. Unfortunately, the worst case scenario happened.
Lady von Whippingberg
Foolish fools!
For anyone still questioning the Cap choice, I'd like to present a hypothetical. Scum got very lucky with their Night Cap, to put it mildly.
So here's the hypothetical. Imagine if Tom hadn't gotten capped. Instead, it was Tom and, say, Pokechu. We would have likely capped Pokechu due to the Cop results (especially after Bardull inevitably points out the 5% chance and convinces me), and we would move on to another Day with Tom and Pythag around. Then the dice would be rolled again, and Scum might very well choose to fish for other Scum with their caps, since they have Tom and Pythag as Town confirmed. Remember, they are Scum Hunting too.
Next let's consider the hypothetical that Tom and Pythag both got capped. We cap one of the two, with their alignment confirmed through the fact that they got capped by two separate scum teams. We get an extra Day with two confirmed town players interacting (same as the other hypothetical but stronger confirm). We then go into a night where the dice would be rolled again, and I suspect that the remaining Town-confirmed player would be merely incapped, in favor of one scum team scum hunting.
Now imagine if either scenario had happened instead of what DID happen, the worst case scenario. Would you really remain suspicious of my Cop Cap reasoning? In either scenario, we would have had more alive players to work with.
So here's the hypothetical. Imagine if Tom hadn't gotten capped. Instead, it was Tom and, say, Pokechu. We would have likely capped Pokechu due to the Cop results (especially after Bardull inevitably points out the 5% chance and convinces me), and we would move on to another Day with Tom and Pythag around. Then the dice would be rolled again, and Scum might very well choose to fish for other Scum with their caps, since they have Tom and Pythag as Town confirmed. Remember, they are Scum Hunting too.
Next let's consider the hypothetical that Tom and Pythag both got capped. We cap one of the two, with their alignment confirmed through the fact that they got capped by two separate scum teams. We get an extra Day with two confirmed town players interacting (same as the other hypothetical but stronger confirm). We then go into a night where the dice would be rolled again, and I suspect that the remaining Town-confirmed player would be merely incapped, in favor of one scum team scum hunting.
Now imagine if either scenario had happened instead of what DID happen, the worst case scenario. Would you really remain suspicious of my Cop Cap reasoning? In either scenario, we would have had more alive players to work with.
Lady von Whippingberg
Foolish fools!
Two questions for
#HBC | Red Ryu
1. You said that Pokechu had majority to live, but this uncap count shows 4 v 4. Does "majority" mean that you did a tiebreaker random select to give a fake majority? Or did Pokechu actually have majority?
2. This is unrelated to the above. I have completed a spreadsheet of D1 behavior that I want to talk about, and it'd be much easier to post an image of it. Is that ok?
Fire Emblemier
The Crests are to Blame
I'm not Red Ryu but I can answer number 1. According to the rules, in the event of a tie, the person who was voted the tied amount of votes first lives. Ie. Pokechu reached 4 votes before Toxic.Two questions for
1. You said that Pokechu had majority to live, but this uncap count shows 4 v 4. Does "majority" mean that you did a tiebreaker random select to give a fake majority? Or did Pokechu actually have majority?
2. This is unrelated to the above. I have completed a spreadsheet of D1 behavior that I want to talk about, and it'd be much easier to post an image of it. Is that ok?
#HBC | Nabe
Beneath it all, he had H-cups all along
Unvote: Shish
Shish's reasoning for being on Toxic doesn't feel like a thought-out excuse after execution of an agenda, it just sounds like an incompletely thought-out decision. And Shish doesn't seem that interested in defending the point more than that statement. So I don't care about following that string first.
Vote: Whip
Your reasoning is bad. First of all, you may not be aware of the fact, but Tom is an OG in DGames and was more likely to be capped than Pythag by at least some of our cast. If any old player were on either of the two scumteams, they would be more likely to pick Tom over Pythag, leaving the other team with a coin flip. People also made a bigger deal of Tom returning to DG recently than Pythag (no offense intended, Pythag, your avatar is iconic as heck), meaning a scumteam without an old player was more likely to pick Tom, betting on the other team doing the same.
Second, ignoring that Tom is Big and Cool and everything I said above, it was a 25% flat shot for the scumteams to agree on Tom, assuming only the two cop targets were considered. Which, of course they were, because scum isn't ignorant of strategy. The removal of both cop targets after the cop died far outweighed the unlikely benefit and likely downfall of trying to sell either Tom or Pythag as a possible scum lynch in any capacity.
As has already been pointed out, the statistics were slim on Toxic picking two scummates on D1 out of the same two-man team. But even if you were ignorant of that idea, you were allowing scum to get a new kill instead of forcing them to finish the job they started. You're saying that this makes sense for a townie -- it doesn't.
Lastly, somewhat unrelated, I'm 100% sure that Poyzin shouldn't be Liking posts from the grave when he's the dead PR being talked about in those same posts. That's endorsement, and not good, even though his opinion on the matter has the same value as any other player's.
Shish's reasoning for being on Toxic doesn't feel like a thought-out excuse after execution of an agenda, it just sounds like an incompletely thought-out decision. And Shish doesn't seem that interested in defending the point more than that statement. So I don't care about following that string first.
Vote: Whip
Your reasoning is bad. First of all, you may not be aware of the fact, but Tom is an OG in DGames and was more likely to be capped than Pythag by at least some of our cast. If any old player were on either of the two scumteams, they would be more likely to pick Tom over Pythag, leaving the other team with a coin flip. People also made a bigger deal of Tom returning to DG recently than Pythag (no offense intended, Pythag, your avatar is iconic as heck), meaning a scumteam without an old player was more likely to pick Tom, betting on the other team doing the same.
Second, ignoring that Tom is Big and Cool and everything I said above, it was a 25% flat shot for the scumteams to agree on Tom, assuming only the two cop targets were considered. Which, of course they were, because scum isn't ignorant of strategy. The removal of both cop targets after the cop died far outweighed the unlikely benefit and likely downfall of trying to sell either Tom or Pythag as a possible scum lynch in any capacity.
As has already been pointed out, the statistics were slim on Toxic picking two scummates on D1 out of the same two-man team. But even if you were ignorant of that idea, you were allowing scum to get a new kill instead of forcing them to finish the job they started. You're saying that this makes sense for a townie -- it doesn't.
Lastly, somewhat unrelated, I'm 100% sure that Poyzin shouldn't be Liking posts from the grave when he's the dead PR being talked about in those same posts. That's endorsement, and not good, even though his opinion on the matter has the same value as any other player's.
#HBC | Nabe
Beneath it all, he had H-cups all along
was also more likely*
#HBC | Nabe
Beneath it all, he had H-cups all along
To be very, very clear, if Toxic had been bluffing scum, that would have come out by D2 at the latest, allowing us to lynch the slot. Or, the scumteam Toxic wasn't on in that hypothetical scenario would have incapped Toxic, thinking he's the cop. So, again, there is not a trace of value to capping Toxic under suspicion of a bluff.
#HBC | Nabe
Beneath it all, he had H-cups all along
I want to make this clear as well: if there had been a possibility in your eyes of Toxic being scum, you wouldn't say the slot was "guaranteed to die", and the right play would have absolutely been to save Toxic and allow possible incaps to play out. In every circumstance, uncapping Chu was the wrong play, but it's especially the wrong play if you were sure Toxic was town.
Fire Emblemier
The Crests are to Blame
I would like to hear thoughts on Nabe vs Lady Von Whippingberg situation from those that haven't appeared in the thread today.
Pokechu
Nintendofreak
giraffelasergun
Sky_B
I would like to hear from you guys.
Pokechu
Nintendofreak
giraffelasergun
Sky_B
I would like to hear from you guys.
Fire Emblemier
The Crests are to Blame
Could I hear your thoughts on GLG?
D
Deleted member
Guest
I'm gonna try to do a proper reread later tonight because nothing you guys are arguing for is making any sense to me. I feel like I missed a lot by just skimping the thread
But while I'm here:
Nintendofreak
Who do you think we should lynch?
But while I'm here:
Nintendofreak
Who do you think we should lynch?
Nintendofreak
Smash Cadet
So I realized my mistake when I didn't catch the second part of Day 1. Meaning I really didn't setup any vote for either uncap or lynch. I'll be more on top of things going forward and make sure I don't let the timer get the best of me. I'm still wrapping my head over what happened, between the editing of posts and comparison cop etc.
That being said, I think I get the reason why No Lynch is not a great idea, as to who to lynch becomes a very good question.
That being said, I think I get the reason why No Lynch is not a great idea, as to who to lynch becomes a very good question.
#HBC | Red Ryu
Red Fox Warrior
- Joined
- Jun 15, 2008
- Messages
- 27,486
- Location
- Milwaukee, Wisconsin
- NNID
- RedRyu_Smash
- 3DS FC
- 0344-9312-3352
Pokechu has the higher count before it was a tie so he hit it first with the higher majority.Two questions for
1. You said that Pokechu had majority to live, but this uncap count shows 4 v 4. Does "majority" mean that you did a tiebreaker random select to give a fake majority? Or did Pokechu actually have majority?
2. This is unrelated to the above. I have completed a spreadsheet of D1 behavior that I want to talk about, and it'd be much easier to post an image of it. Is that ok?
Image rule is more so to stop posting hydra chat logs and role PMs etc, if it just your personal notes that is fine.
Lady von Whippingberg
Foolish fools!
Half this hydra has a very long history with Tom, to put it mildly. Same with Pythag. With that said, this is a weird point to make. You go out of your way to more or less say that Tom is the stronger player between the two without actually saying it, while also complimenting Pythag (the living confirmed town player). It's a weird tone in general.
I find the point to have a bit of shaky ground in general, but I will admit that people made a bigger deal out of Tom. I'm cool with agreeing that Tom did have the higher chance of being picked out of the two, but I also find your tone and way of making the point to be kinda sus.
On your second point, saying it is a 25% chance is misleading at best. There's also the strong possibility that, having two confirmed town players, scum may have picked someone outside the two. They want to scum hunt too. There are two scum factions. Your statistic is false, misleading, and fails to consider any alternative possibility.
I'd also like to be on record saying that I despise the "force mafia to finish their job" point. No. The Cap is essentially a Night Kill, meaning we had one Night Kill N0. Forcing them into nightkilling their second cap rather than hoping for another incap means that we would just be 2 nightkills down going into N2. That's bad.
Woah woah woah. Woah. Stop here.
I don't recall a single moment where either hydra head said that the Uncap: Chu was due to suspecting Toxic of a bluff. I clearly laid out all of our reasons that had zero to do with Toxic being scum. It was pure game theory, aiming to minimize body count.
You're being intentionally misleading here, and I'm comfortable parking my vote on you for now. Especially after my spreadsheet post that is coming up next, where I lay out more reasons why I'm suspicious of your slot (and a few others).
I was going to wait until after the post to really dive and figure out who I dislike most from my pool, but you just rocketed to the top with these intentionally misleading statements.
Vote: Nabe
Lady von Whippingberg
Foolish fools!
Welcome to Whip's spreadsheet. This is only for DAY 1 activity, nothing from today. Time to explain it. I only included alive players in this, given that all dead players are town. I also included myself out of fairness. I also excluded Pythag because they are confirmed town. Please let me know if I missed any entries.
Time to go column by column.
The first column is "questioned setup." I literally just played a game where I intentionally questioned the setup/rules as scum, specifically to make it seem more like I didn't have a scum role pm. This is less heavy of a point, but it's such an easy play as scum that it makes no sense not to include the ones who did it. "Questioning setup" refers mostly to the incap rules.
Questioning cop cap means that the player questioned my reasoning (or other peoples' reasoning) for the cop cap, specifically calling people out the reasoning instead of just idly voting. Pythag and Tom both did this, but they're town and excluded. Setting up a lynch by questioning the cop cap is, quite frankly, the easiest mislynch setup in existence. It practically writes itself. Therefore, I believe that we will have at minimum one scum on that questioning train.
Inactive/Coasting is self explanatory.
Zeke was town. He was lynched. Therefore, it's logical to assume that one or multiple scum were on his wagon. I also included the votes that were post hammer, due to the ingame confusion from everyone. The same goes for the following columns.
Uncap Chu is a bit trickier. Two confirmed-town players have questioned my reasoning for the cop cap, Pythag and Tom. Therefore, it's logical to assume that at least some scum players would also see Capping Chu as the optimal play. We likely have at least one scum in this group.
Uncap Toxic includes multiple players who switched after the cop claim, Wright and Giraffe. Nabe had already voted to uncap Toxic, but they both didn't swap after the claim and also questioned the Cop Cap logic. It's more than logical to assume Scum would get on the uncap train for some Town points, especially with my prior conclusion that Toxic wouldn't live through the night.
So we have a pool of people that I am suspicious of through game logic, and I firmly believe that my conclusions are sound. To form this pool, I grabbed anyone who had major overlaps in these columns. These are the players that I believe should be looked at more closely.
Fire Emblemier. They questioned the setup, voted for Zeke, and went for the Cop Cap. They questioned the setup more heavily than almost anyone else, which I believe I even questioned them about earlier.
Wright (*whip crack*). They questioned the cop cap, voted Zeke, and uncapped Toxic.
Giraffe. They questioned the setup, voted zeke, and uncapped toxic.
Shishoe. They questioned setup, voted Zeke, and uncapped toxic.
Nabe. They questioned the cop cap, voted Zeke, and uncapped Toxic.
These are the players that I believe should be focused on. There is zero chance of scum not being among one of them, otherwise we are dealing with a truly incompetent pair of scum teams. Nabe is my current top choice, which I will go into in my next post for a more digestible read.
Lady von Whippingberg
Foolish fools!
To summarize Nabe, they fit all the criteria for scum logic in terms of vote/cap behavior, in addition to setting up a lynch D2 for the cop cap. But what takes them over the top is their general behavior.
Their post against me was intentionally misleading, and it also included a buddy attempt to the Confirmed Town player, Pythag. It also included terrible statistics that had no real grounding, serving only to work as filler content in a larger post.
They also were odd early on D1, attempting to bring back RVS phase when I was questioning FE. Wright even called it out.
Overall, this is a very suspicious slot. I am parking my vote on them.
Their post against me was intentionally misleading, and it also included a buddy attempt to the Confirmed Town player, Pythag. It also included terrible statistics that had no real grounding, serving only to work as filler content in a larger post.
They also were odd early on D1, attempting to bring back RVS phase when I was questioning FE. Wright even called it out.
Overall, this is a very suspicious slot. I am parking my vote on them.
Lady you're scummy.
I gave you the math early on, there was a VERY high percentage that the incapped were clear. Or how about 'clear enough' for a D1.
But D1? ~80%? And you didn't like that?
You said :
Then you hop on FE with his theory
So what do you offer us? Pretty much wait for random discussion to happen.
And happen it did! the cop claimed!
And you killed the cop. You ARGUED for killing the cop.
Even if it is the optimal play, you can logic your way there, while still being scum, and then MAKING (or attempting to make) the worst case scenario happen.
Even recognizing that your chances were incredibly poor (assuming you're town), you wouldn't have changed your vote.
You said how "there was no guarantee" that Tom and I were clear. 95% chance isn't enough?
How are you planning on moving forward now that there is no way anything will be a guarantee?
I always viewed pokechu and toxic as 'clearER' than others, but it's not promised.
You seem to want to ignore that entirely, because there's that 10% chance.
Your play confuses me if you're town, but it makes a whole lot more sense if you're scum.
- As I was typing this Lady posted twice-
Why is there a strong possibility that they would pick outside the two?
Especially when the flip today would demonstrate that scum would probably rather scum hunt during the day?
If scum want to scum hunt, then wouldn't that actually cut down on the chance of self capping?
(ex: Lady chooses to cap Nabe, her partner. The other scum team decide to scum hunt and cap nabe, nabe wakes up dead)
Does this exonerate Pokechu? To you?
Is that a low enough percentage for you to bite?
I think you're right, scum do want to scum hunt. But I think they can do it during town stage just as well. Which is what I think you're doing (and you may have found one!).
I see your spreadsheet and it's very nice, there probably are scum in your list, But I think you're still dirty.
You're
1. Assuming that you're town, and
2. That everyone who's town would agree with you.
When we have proof that two townies in fact disagreed with you.
It's not that I don't understand your points, it's that I don't buy it.
With regard to my bias, I'm talking about EARLY in the day.
I gave you the math early on, there was a VERY high percentage that the incapped were clear. Or how about 'clear enough' for a D1.
But D1? ~80%? And you didn't like that?
You said :
Probability BAD.
Then you hop on FE with his theory
OTHER THEORIES BAD
So what do you offer us? Pretty much wait for random discussion to happen.
And happen it did! the cop claimed!
And you killed the cop. You ARGUED for killing the cop.
Those worst case scenarios are easy to make happen if you're scum.
Even if it is the optimal play, you can logic your way there, while still being scum, and then MAKING (or attempting to make) the worst case scenario happen.
Even recognizing that your chances were incredibly poor (assuming you're town), you wouldn't have changed your vote.
You said how "there was no guarantee" that Tom and I were clear. 95% chance isn't enough?
How are you planning on moving forward now that there is no way anything will be a guarantee?
I always viewed pokechu and toxic as 'clearER' than others, but it's not promised.
You seem to want to ignore that entirely, because there's that 10% chance.
Your play confuses me if you're town, but it makes a whole lot more sense if you're scum.
- As I was typing this Lady posted twice-
There's those percentages that you hate so much.
Why is there a strong possibility that they would pick outside the two?
Especially when the flip today would demonstrate that scum would probably rather scum hunt during the day?
If scum want to scum hunt, then wouldn't that actually cut down on the chance of self capping?
(ex: Lady chooses to cap Nabe, her partner. The other scum team decide to scum hunt and cap nabe, nabe wakes up dead)
Does this exonerate Pokechu? To you?
Is that a low enough percentage for you to bite?
I think you're right, scum do want to scum hunt. But I think they can do it during town stage just as well. Which is what I think you're doing (and you may have found one!).
I see your spreadsheet and it's very nice, there probably are scum in your list, But I think you're still dirty.
You're essentially admitting you're wrong, because you would've included 2 townies on that list, but we were confirmed.
You're
1. Assuming that you're town, and
2. That everyone who's town would agree with you.
When we have proof that two townies in fact disagreed with you.
It's not that I don't understand your points, it's that I don't buy it.
D
Deleted member
Guest
Pokechu
Come here buddy and tell us what you think of the one holdin a whip.
But if you didn't believe it was a bluff(which means you believed Toxic was indeed the cop) why would you EVER consider not saving them?
Vote: Lady von Whippingberg
Lady von Whippingberg
Foolish fools!
Pythag, it looks like I completely misunderstood your own post, and I apologize. I misread the quote and thought it was about the Cop clears, not the incap players. Hence me saying the bias.
Before I respond to the rest, do you want to change anything from your post? I misread your quote completely, which is why I made the arguments that I did. I do still think that you have some bias as related to the cop clear (where I also was completely unaware of the 5% until today, no one said it on D1), but that's unrelated to the quote.
I'd rather us argue from a correct understanding rather than me continue from an incorrect one.
Lady von Whippingberg
Foolish fools!
Pythag
To be clear, I'm fine with responding to most of it. I just want to clear up the misunderstanding that is the core of the first bit....
Come here buddy and tell us what you think of the one holdin a whip.
But if you didn't believe it was a bluff(which means you believed Toxic was indeed the cop) why would you EVER consider not saving them?
Vote: Lady von Whippingberg
I've REPEATEDLY said my reasoning why I thought not saving them was the optimal play, and I still think that. You're either willfully ignoring my posts or you're being intentionally misleading.
D
Deleted member
Guest
I'm sorry but all it seems you did was intentionally get the cop killed for badly-explained reasons
...
I've REPEATEDLY said my reasoning why I thought not saving them was the optimal play, and I still think that. You're either willfully ignoring my posts or you're being intentionally misleading.
Lady von Whippingberg
Foolish fools!
If my posts were badly-explained, I'd dearly love to see what you'd see as well-explained.
The cop was dying no matter what. The choice was either to go in with guaranteed 3 deaths pre D2 or guaranteed 2 with 2 incaps (ie active players) around. There was no possible universe where the cop survived to D2; we have it confirmed in the OP that there is no Doc or protective role.
except it's not gauranteed 2 with 2 incaps.
@Lady feel free to address whatever you want.
I'm happy with my vote, and you can say "I misread" or misunderstood all you want. I'll argue it was intentional misleading that you've been caught in.
D
Deleted member
Guest
That makes no sense, had Pokechu died, we'd still have Tom, a confirmed Townie.
I know I'm not in a position to criticize the play itself since I saved Chu too but the problem is this reasoning. Your whole reasoning is based around a gamble that bith Scumteams would not hit the same target(and that did not work out at all). Had it worked, all it would have given us would be one more vote toDay but one of Tom and Pythag would be dead by the end of the Day anyways so the reward would not even be worth the risk
Lady von Whippingberg
Foolish fools!
Fair, it wasn't perfectly guaranteed. But it was better than 2 Night Kills (essentially) going into D2 guaranteed. The risk was worth it in my eyes.
For the "intentional misleading" bit, I get it. You're tunneling pretty hard here, and it's easy to see everything as negative. I legitimately believe the quote to be about the cop results, not the incaps.
I'll reply to the rest then shortly, and you'll see more of my mindset.
Yes, my reasoning is on a rational gamble that both scumteams would not have hit the same target.
I am baffled why you are downplaying the importance of not having 3 deaths going into D2.
D
Deleted member
Guest
Two confirmed Townie being guaranteed to live would be far more valuable than any other player with just possibility of them living
Lady von Whippingberg
Foolish fools!
This is a response to my misunderstanding of your post, and I've already corrected the misunderstanding.
This wasn't about the probability. It was about how it was weird that FE went super hard into WIFOM super early. He dove in deep, and the Day had barely begun.
If you keep going a bit after this one, you'll see that I completely missed the incap bit in the OP. Without that understanding, it was weird to me that FE would magically assume the incap wasn't a one shot or something.
To be fair, the gap between stuff happening to cop claim wasn't that much. I questioned some plays and did some talk, and I directly tried to pull us out of RVS early. Then there was a gap, and the cop claim happened. If temporary inactivity is scummy, then Pokechu should be enemy #1.
I've kinda gone in depth way too much on how I feel about the cop kill. The cop was dying either way. At this point you either agree that my play was the right choice or you disagree. I'm tired of repeating myself.
There are two scum teams. For hypothetical, let's look at this situation as if I was scum. How could I coordinate with the other team to ensure that Tom took the hit, without exposing myself? Even if I was scum, there's no way to "make the worst case scenario happen."
Your second statement makes no sense. You're saying that if it was the optimal play... me pointing it out is scummy? Again, there's no way to make the worst case happen, even as scum.
Third statement, I still would have stood by it being the optimal play, even if I knew the 5% chance. The facts of the play had nothing to do with you and Tom being town or not, in the end. It was all about minimizing mafia-caused deaths for D2.
Fourth statement, yeah I had zero guarantee that you were clear. I didn't realize the chance was that low. I've been clear on that point.
I don't really understand the fifth statement. I've presented my spreadsheet and laid out my gameplan/scum pool. I've been exceedingly clear on my views.
Well yeah, it wasn't guaranteed. I saw no reason to take the bet that the incapped players were automatically town. I don't even think the chance was actually 10% when you consider the fact that there are two scum teams, but I don't really want to do the math here. Point is, it wasn't guaranteed and there was no reason to call it guaranteed that early.
I mean, I don't hate percentages. I dislike vague, misleading, and wrong ones.
Second statement, there was actually a decent possibility they would pick outside of the two. With one player lynched and another capped, that leaves 11. Now take out the two now-confirmed town players. Nine. Now take out the two scum members for one team. 7. Out of that remaining 7, there are two scum. So it's a 2/7 chance (bit less than 1/3) of hitting scum, while guaranteeing an instant kill on the confirmed town players is 50/50. I found it to be reasonable odds.
I'm not sure what you mean about the scum hunt during the day bit being demonstrated by flips.
Self capping has always seemed like way too risky of a play, and it was weird WIFOM to dive into so early.
Pokechu is far from exonerated due to his lack of activity, but I'm not sure how much of that is just me being against inactives. He miiiiight be ok.
Wait, hold the phone. How many people were hard on Chu needing to be uncapped BEFORE the cop claim? How much of it was based on Toxic's behavior alone? Ah, **** we might be dealing with a self cap. I'm realizing now that it's less risky D1 compared to any other day; if it was to be done, D1 was the best day.
I still consider that above bit to be some major WIFOM, but it's worth looking into later in the game. Right now people are tunneling way too hard on me, and I suspect I'm going to be the lynch. All I can do is share my thoughts and try to defend myself.
Ok, great. I'm glad you like the spreadsheet. Whether I live or die today, priority 1 is making sure that sheet gets out there. I 100% believe that there is scum in that pool.
Nah that's not it at all, but I can see where it could be read that way. I'm saying that since two townies questioned the cop cap, it would be even easier for scum to slip in on that and set up an easy mislynch.
I don't believe that everyone who's town would agree with me; heck you and Tom didn't and still don't. The questioning is still worth noting.
And that's all of it. I'm not sure what else we can really expand on here, I've been extremely clear on my reasoning. Now you either believe me or not.
Wright & Co. Law Offices
Smash Cadet
I mean you could argue that Tom/Pythag weren't cleared, but the chances of Toxic landing a bingo on them both is just wild.
GLG’s posting activity is a little odd to me. He had come on day one asked a bunch of questions and then just fades away. Which I don’t know if there were posts missing because of the day one drama but if there were then that would explain it a bit.
It just seemed like they wanted to seem active then just vanished. And in the aftermath of yesterday and the discussions day they’ve been inactive despite their usual high activity.
It has me on the fence about them but the topic has shifted to other things now and I want to go over the record again and see what information von karma’s posts give us and how that debate holds up!
It’s a lot to read and take in, but if I have a chance tonight I’ll give some more thoughts.
sorry for not responding before, but sure you can.
GLG’s posting activity is a little odd to me. He had come on day one asked a bunch of questions and then just fades away. Which I don’t know if there were posts missing because of the day one drama but if there were then that would explain it a bit.
It just seemed like they wanted to seem active then just vanished. And in the aftermath of yesterday and the discussions day they’ve been inactive despite their usual high activity.
It has me on the fence about them but the topic has shifted to other things now and I want to go over the record again and see what information von karma’s posts give us and how that debate holds up!
It’s a lot to read and take in, but if I have a chance tonight I’ll give some more thoughts.