I've thought about this a lot, actually, since I saw the news. I don't know that it really this means anything, but I do think a Three Houses character is among the most likely Nintendo characters. The game released to positive reception at the end of July, just a few days before Hero launched. The "Mr. Sakurai Presents" Banjo video was recorded two days after the Hero one, and in it, he mentions the announcement of additional DLC past the Fighters Pass. My guess is the announcement of Hero and Banjo at E3 led to a lot of preorders/sales past the initial sales of the Fighters Pass by itself and Joker, and around June - July is when they greenlighted further DLC. If this speculation is true, Three Houses released during the timeframe they would likely be choosing characters.
I've seen some people suggesting that they might have been chosen a little after Joker was released, since some people bought the Pass when he was released. But even if that is the case, it would have been in late April and games coming out later in the year would have still be kept in consideration since they wouldn't start working on them until the end of the Fighter Pass next year. I wouldn't even be surprised if they so far planned a 3H character and after Sakurai plays the game he picks who mostly inspires him.
Another blue haired swordsman would be way more controversial than Edelgard. In fact most people I've seen if anything have said they'd be fine with another FE rep if it's her but don't want Byleth. The backlash from the vocal minority of FE fans who clearly only played Azure Moon would be nothing compared to the backlash of the whole fanbase if Byleth got in.
While I think that Byleth is more likely than Edelgard, I still can't understand what makes Edelgard a "controvertial" pick.
-Her morality and the things she does? We have straight up villains like
, some are even detailed as extremely violent and murderous like
, as well as a good number of anti-heroes like
, and if it is because she is also a protagonist we still have some morally grey "heroes" with
, so it wouldn't really be unprecedented. Heck, many Smash fans want MORE villains and antagonists in Smash, and FE still lacks any kind of it right know.
-It's because she isn't tecnically the main character? Well neither was
when he was picked over
in Smash For, yet most Smash fans were exited because he was a more unique choice. Sure, some complained and voted for Chrom in the Ballot, but he was still added because of how easy he was to make as a clone. And if it is about the "avoiding bias towards one house", Sakurai has already done it with the Pokèmon starters, by adding Robin and Lucina without Chrom unitl Ultimate, Fox and Falco without Peppy and Slippy, Olimar and Alph without Louie, Brittany and Charlie as alts, so he doesn't really care about completing sets or avoiding bias towards certain characters.
And there are quite a lot of things going on for Edelgard that put her above the other two lords (and potentially Byleth themself) in terms of importance to the plot and marketability.
-Her hatebase? Every single character as one, and that didn't stop characters such as
or even Sans as a Mii Costume. Also Edelgard's haters are a minority of the FE fanbase, not the Smash one, and still has an enourmeous number of fans, so I don't think she would be more controvertial than Ridley to Ridley's haters or Sans to Sans' haters.
