Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[SharkLord]

Pokemon, people. Pokemon. As Gwen stated, Brawl's development started in 2005, but Diamond and Pearl had been released in 2006, so Lucario was chosen before their game released. And Greninja was chosen while they were still mostly concept art. I can't remember if the same happened with Incineroar. But Lucario and Greninja's cases are like Byleth, as well as Corrin with their Japanese release, where they were chosen before their game had come out.

Yeah, Incini had a spot reserved in advance; SSBU started development right after the DLC, and SuMo came the year after. I believe Sakurai was going off of concept art like with Greninja

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

If Okami is in the digital sale event, everyone should buy it

 

[spicynun]

New PapaGenos video.

It's gonna be kinda funny looking back if the character(s) end up being no one in that thumbnail

 

[PacificFun]

Let's look at the newcomers in Melee:

= Promotes Star Fox 64
= Promotes Dr. Mario 64
= Promotes Gen 2
= arguably promotes Pokemon Movie
= Promotes Ocarina of Time
= would be added either way but might as well count as promotions given how people treat Isabelle and Inkling
= Promotes Blazing Blade

Marth, Game & Watch, and Ice Climbers are the only newcomers who can't advertise anything, Smash was always promotional.

This is such a stretch to me honestly (outside of Roy). Edit: Outside of Roy and Mewtwo.

 

[Guynamednelson]

This is such a stretch to me honestly.

The only real stretch is Dr. Mario promoting Dr. Mario 64. That game wasn't released in Japan until 2003, so Sakurai might not have played it yet.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Well aside from this current debate, does anyone here feel that the spirit of Smash Bros has lost its way over the years?

Personally I feel Smash is stronger than ever in this department. I'm not sure what the problem is, so maybe someone can better explain. Everyone is back, so many returning and new stages, tons of franchises represented old and new, a unique story mode. What's not to like?

There's some dumbasses claiming Smash has lost it's sense of identity because it's not about Nintendo All Stars like Ness, Ice Climber and Roy anymore completely ignoring how Sakurai and Nintendo have stated multiple times that Smash celebrates gaming, meaning it's changed it's vision in that point while still keeping the "'fighting game anyone can pick up and play' vision.

Pokemon, people. Pokemon. As Gwen stated, Brawl's development started in 2005, but Diamond and Pearl had been released in 2006, so Lucario was chosen before their game released. And Greninja was chosen while they were still mostly concept art. I can't remember if the same happened with Incineroar. But Lucario and Greninja's cases are like Byleth, as well as Corrin with their Japanese release, where they were chosen before their game had come out.
If Lucario and Greninja don't count because their games were out before they were announced as newcomers, then the same absolutely applies to Corrin and Byleth because Fates was already out in Japan 7-8 months and Three Houses was out 6-7 months before their DLCs.

Hell, if you want to argue intentions then 3H's delays made it so Byleth was intended to be available for even longer between release and Smash but the DLC was already locked in

 

[CannonStreak]

He did not.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Say, did this guy predict Min Min before?

 

[2006ToyotaTacoma]

If Okami is in the digital sale event, everyone should buy it

I second this, as I shall always shill Okami HD whenever the opportunity arises.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Smash celebrates gaming

When people ignore this, it's not because they're going "no I don't just want third parties", it's because Nintendo/Sakurai are saying that too. Even Banjo-Kazooie, a third party, would have never made the cut in a game that truly transcended Nintendo.

 

[SharkLord]

Well aside from this current debate, does anyone here feel that the spirit of Smash Bros has lost its way over the years?

Personally I feel Smash is stronger than ever in this department. I'm not sure what the problem is, so maybe someone can better explain. Everyone is back, so many returning and new stages, tons of franchises represented old and new, a unique story mode. What's not to like?

I think a large part of it is the focus on getting everyone in there at the expense of... Well, everything else. The personalized Classic Modes are cool, but there's a notable lack of single-player content, and the story mode doesn't have the character interactions Subspace Emissary is praised for.

Aside from that, maybe it's just the sheer volume of characters? People are gonna get lost along the way, and the way Classic Mode and Spirits work you're gonna be seeing everyone a lot. It makes everyone a bit less memorable beyond the recent DLCs.

Or perhaps it's the shift in roster. Aside from the surge in veterans, there's been a notable shift away from the first-parties and more towards the third-parties, thanks to the DLC favoring the latter and the base game being low on reps in general. The "old guard" of requests, so to speak, has largely dropped off due to being AT'd, Mii'd, or just not being considered a DLC character, and so the speculation scene just feels different than the likes of Brawl and 4. There's definitely been good changes out of this shift, don't get me wrong, but a lot has changed.

Granted, this is all just theorizing and guesswork. I haven't been in the hardcore speculation long enough to give a proper answer.

 

[RGFS]

I don't like the idea of lumping any characters you may not be interested in as "promotional picks". They had their own logical reasons to get in. Unless your name is Corrin, most other titles weren't as neatly tied to the initial release of their games and had more reasons to get in other than being a promotion. I'm pretty confident that the promotion aspect more often than not is just a neat bonus and not the main thing they think about. Otherwise, DLC would've been lining up way more with new Nintendo IPs that were coming out around the same time like Ring FIt or Astral Chain.

Byleth got in because their game sold millions, became the best selling FE game, and because the inclusion would diversify the weapons used by the FE characters.

Min Min got in because ARMS was actually a pretty successful new IP launch and has an interesting moveset quirk. Even if the fanbase doesn't seem as strong as Splatoon, it still sold great in its own right. The character also got in years after the game first came out anyway so it wasn't striking while the iron was hot.

A similar thing can be said with Pyra and Mythra. They're from a successful game in a series that was only representing the first game well.

Hell, some characters like Steve and Alex promote Smash Ultimate just by showing up. Even a series like Pokemon has no problem selling millions of units without Smash anyway and they just get in more Pokemon because of moveset potential and the series' success.

 

[Guynamednelson]

and so the speculation scene just feels different than the likes of Brawl and 4.

It's speculation that feels different more than anything else. A good chunk of speculators want to believe only the biggest third parties and maybe 3H/Gen 8 reps can get in, while Sakurai still added Nintendo characters that don't fall under the blanket of "3H/Gen 8 reps and nothing else". It helps that these characters were locked in before the speculation scene acquired absurdly high standards, so they can't cancel any plans for including a first party to cater to third-party hype.

 

[PacificFun]

Well aside from this current debate, does anyone here feel that the spirit of Smash Bros has lost its way over the years?

Personally I feel Smash is stronger than ever in this department. I'm not sure what the problem is, so maybe someone can better explain. Everyone is back, so many returning and new stages, tons of franchises represented old and new, a unique story mode. What's not to like?

Ultimate feels a bit "unfocused" to me. Calling it a grand celebration of gaming is a stretch to me but it's more than a Nintendo crossover at this point.

 

[RGFS]

When people ignore this, it's not because they're going "no I don't just want third parties", it's because Nintendo/Sakurai are saying that too. Even Banjo-Kazooie, a third party, would have never made the cut in a game that truly transcended Nintendo.

Sakurai likes saying the celebration of gaming thing. But it's pretty clear with this roster that Smash is a Nintendo celebration first and a gaming celebration second. Thing is, we are in the second part as we speak. The base games mainly focus more on Nintendo seemingly while DLC focuses more on gaming as a whole.

 

[GilTheGreat19]

There's some dumbasses claiming Smash has lost it's sense of identity because it's not about Nintendo All Stars like Ness, Ice Climber and Roy anymore completely ignoring how Sakurai and Nintendo have stated multiple times that Smash celebrates gaming, meaning it's changed it's vision in that point while still keeping the "'fighting game anyone can pick up and play' vision.

Let them figure out on their own that Sakurai himself said Smash is a celebration of gaming- oh wait, they won't cuz they're Smash fans...

 

[PacificFun]

Byleth got in because their game sold millions, became the best selling FE game, and because the inclusion would diversify the weapons used by the FE characters.

Byleth's inclusion has nothing to do with the success of Three Houses. They were picked before that game finished development.

 

[GilTheGreat19]

Byleth's inclusion has nothing to do with the success of Three Houses. They were picked before that game finished development.

They took a worthy risk. They pulled a Corrin but with a much more, in the end, SUPER successful FE installment.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Let them figure out on their own that Sakurai himself said Smash is a celebration of gaming- oh wait, they won't cuz they're Smash fans...

I think we've found out enough of that on their own. It's just Sakurai doesn't use "celebration of gaming" as a first-party gatekeeping tool as much as other Smash fans.

 

[Technomage]

They took a worthy risk. They pulled a Corrin but with a much more, in the end, SUPER successful FE installment.

So, how come Fates wasn't as well received as Three Houses? Well, besides its DLC fiasco that 3H never had, which I'm well aware of.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

So, how come Fates wasn't as well received as Three Houses? Well, besides its DLC fiasco that 3H never had, which I'm well aware of.

The story and writing wasn't as good.

 

[RGFS]

If you want to really go back, the biggest concern during the inception of Smash was the game selling better with recognizable faces crossing over. This is mainly why I prefer seeing new series. I love the crossover element that makes Smash special, the logo itself is supposed to be a cross representing the crossover. More new series is just the natural progression.

Byleth's inclusion has nothing to do with the success of Three Houses. They were picked before that game finished development.

Do Smash characters take over 6 months to develop? Okay, even so, they were at least respectful enough to wait and not just shove it in the second the game came out this time, meaning there was more than just trying to promote the game shamelessly. The rest still stands as Byleth does still fix one of the biggest problems with the lack of multiple, unique weapons. If you don't count echos, which you shouldn't, the FE representation of unique fighters is pretty good now.

 

[PacificFun]

Why do we keep saying Three Houses was mega successful? It was definitely a big success for the series but Fates and Awakening sold well on a system that wasn't a runaway success (people say Fates is like the black horse of FE even though it sold great and reviewed great).

RGFS Byleth seemed to be strategically placed at the end of FP1 because Nintendo wanted to front load it with "hype" third-party characters.

 

[RGFS]

Why do we keep saying Three Houses was mega successful? It was definitely a big success for the series but Fates and Awakening sold well on a system that wasn't a runaway success (people say Fates is like the black horse of FE even though it sold great and reviewed great).

Well, Straight from Wikipedia (Lol):

Fire Emblem: Three Houses

was the best-selling game during its first week on retail sale in Japan, with 143,130 copies being sold.[42] The game was also the best-selling physical game in the United Kingdom that same week, selling twice as much as its second place competitor Wolfenstein: Youngblood.[43] SuperData Research estimated that Three Houses sold 800,000 digital copies through the Nintendo Switch eShop in its launch month of July 2019.[44] In August 2019, the NPD Group shared the ranking of best-selling games for the month of July in the United States, and Fire Emblem: Three Houses was in second place counting only physical sales.[45] As of March 2020, the game has sold 2.87 million copies worldwide, making it the single best-selling game in the Fire Emblem franchise.[46]

Sure, It's no Animal Crossing, GTAV, or Minecraft, but those are still really good numbers. It's not fair to undersell the success.

RGFS Byleth seemed to be strategically placed at the end of FP1 because Nintendo wanted to front load it with "hype" third-party characters.

That may be true, but I doubt they would've ever ended with Byleth, even Smash 4 ended with something crazy like Bayonetta. Speculation-wise, I always felt Byleth was slapped onto the end after they decided to make a Second Pass. Maybe it would've ended with Sephiroth or Steve. When they decided to make more DLC, they placed one of them in the other one and fast-tracked the development of Byleth. That would make the break between both passes with Byleth and Min Min more of a hype cooldown period. Maybe Pyra / Mythra is another hype cooldown period or the first clue to see we are truly winding down.

But this part of my thought process is all baseless speculation basically so I don't know.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

oh wait, they won't cuz they're Smash fans...

I remember back in the Terry days people were losing their goddamn minds about inputs. People ended up laughing about pretzel and pentagram motions constantly as a result and for good reason lmao

 

[volbound1700]

You forgot to mention Smash 3DS's Smash Run, which a lot of people like far more than Smash Wii U's Smash Party.

I didn't have a 3DS so that is the issue. I would love to try Smash Run. It seems like it could have been easily implemented in Ultimate.

 

[GilTheGreat19]

I remember back in the Terry days people were losing their goddamn minds about inputs. People ended up laughing about pretzel and pentagram motions constantly as a result and for good reason lmao

Sakurai teaches Smash fans how to play fighting games 101

 

[True Blue Warrior]

so Lucario was chosen before their game released.

Lucario debuted in July 2005 in Pokemon: Lucario and the Mystery of Mew and the project plan for Smash Brawl was finished around July 2005.

 

[PacificFun]

Well, Straight from Wikipedia (Lol):



Sure, It's no Animal Crossing, GTAV, or Minecraft, but those are still really good numbers. It's not fair to undersell the success.

That's interesting to look at. The game had a huge drop in sales after it's launch it seems. While the 3DS games on the other hand, sold slowly over time (Three Houses made it to 3M in late 2020 ircc).

 

[GilTheGreat19]

Don't forget, y'all

Byleth's reveal and release may not have physical correlations to Three Houses's success at its 2019 launch, but it did have physical correlations with this:

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

^ This video was released on the same day Byleth was revealed.

 

[Guynamednelson]

even Smash 4 ended with something crazy like Bayonetta

Bayonetta's in a weird spot. She's not a "lame finale" like Byleth, but at the same time she would be cheaper to acquire than Ryu or Cloud due to being from a smaller IP, one that needs Nintendo's help to keep getting games.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

When people ignore this, it's not because they're going "no I don't just want third parties", it's because Nintendo/Sakurai are saying that too. Even Banjo-Kazooie, a third party, would have never made the cut in a game that truly transcended Nintendo.

Celebrating gaming =/= Nintendo characters don’t matter anymore. Smash is both a celebration of gaming and a Nintendo crossover because it includes so many gaming characters from so many different points of history, both Nintendo related and non-Nintendo-related. The last two characters could be Captain Rainbow and Saki Amamiya and they would not remotely contradict this statement.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Sakurai teaches Smash fans how to play fighting games 101

Can't wait for Sol's presentation where Sakurai pulls this out

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[Guynamednelson]

Celebrating gaming =/= Nintendo characters don’t matter anymore. Smash is both a celebration of gaming and a Nintendo crossover because it includes so many gaming characters from so many different points of history, both Nintendo related and non-Nintendo-related. The last two characters could be Captain Rainbow and Saki Amamiya and they would not remotely contradict this statement.

I don't believe "celebration of gaming" was intended by Nintendo/Sakurai as a first-party gatekeeping tool, but I do think some Smash fans interpret it that way.

 

[RGFS]

Bayonetta's in a weird spot. She's not a "lame finale" like Byleth, but at the same time she would be cheaper to acquire than Ryu or Cloud due to being from a smaller IP, one that needs Nintendo's help to keep getting games.

I personally think she was an amazing final choice. I've never even played a Bayo game but seeing they would put such a risque character like that into the game next to Mario and Kirby was mind-blowing. The trailer had sexual innuendos and everything. I was so convinced she would never get into Smash so it was an awesome surprise.

With Steve and Alex now in this Pass, you can't objectively top them in size. Getting even close would be an accomplishment. You'd probably need a pretty shocking character or series for that.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I don't believe "celebration of gaming" was intended by Nintendo/Sakurai as a first-party gatekeeping tool, but I do think some Smash fans interpret it that way.

I mean, anyone who uses that statement in that way deserves to be disappointed.

 

[Schnee117]

I don't believe "celebration of gaming" was intended by Nintendo/Sakurai as a first-party gatekeeping tool, but I do think some Smash fans interpret it that way.

If anyone does then it's a tiny minority at best, otherwise that's just you projecting your own insecurities onto others and attacking a strawman as usual.

 

[GilTheGreat19]

Can't wait for Sol's presentation where Sakurai pulls this out

There was a problem fetching the tweet

BHAHAHAH THAT'S PERFECT
*Sakurai, what's a +HS?"

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Welp we’ve already got a final two “leak”. Leak is in quotes because this is SO obviously fake

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

Time travel jokes aside, they’ve never made a generalized release date IN the trailers, have they?

 

[volbound1700]

Has Smash lost its way?

NO. Ultimate has the best sales of any Smash game. I am an old-school fan as many know and I consider Ultimate to probably be the epitome of the series. I pointed out some major flaws earlier such as Single-Player. I think there was potential for Ultimate to be even GREATER but to say it has taken the series down is a stretch.

I do think the DLC doesn't have much for old-school fans to cheer about (Banjo is probably is the main exception). There isn't that character that you can go to your friends and say xxxx is in Smash and they get hyped about it. However, the DLC pack is probably more exciting for newer fans and fans in Japan so it targets the future audience which makes business sense.

The challenge that I see for the Franchise is what will Smash 6 look like? That is a topic for another day.

I will say this though, Smash speculation and this website are not as fun as I remember in the Brawl era and this is nothing against the posters.

There was less lockdown about where to post (you could make multiple threads about the characters, etc.), you were not nailed by double-posts, the number of people frequenting the website was greater (granted the audience on here was greater during Ultimate's development and probably on par with Brawl), and we even had, to my knowledge, at least one Japanese poster who used to translate Japanese articles for us on the website. The atmosphere on Smashboards were fun.

I think there was more of a nostalgia expectation to Smash in the past. You got the old characters from the Arcade and NES games. Kind of like AVGN type content on Youtube. I feel like many of the older fans (including me) expected more of that to continue but you really haven't seen that in the DLC (you did get it with the base game, especially the E3 and August Directs).

My thought is that every time you seem frustrated about Smash or the DLC, go back and watch the July E3 "Everyone is Here" video or August Direct Video again. Man they were awesome. IMO, the two best Smash presentations ever done.

I think Ultimate is ULTIMATE. It was the epitome of the Franchise. We got K Rool, Simon Belmont, tons of great characters. Sure, you can look at what is NOT in Ultimate and get frustrated but look at what is there.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

SGF starts in about 20 minutes, expect some Activision announcements there. Probably no smash, but Crash will be there probably.