A year ago, I made the promise to make a massive work based on some polls in relation to character support during prior epochs.
When I was writing my response a while back, I noticed many posts lamenting how the desire and focus of the Smash fanbase, has now shifted towards mostly third-party characters. As I said before this is a relatively recent phenomenon. The shift over towards mostly third-party characters is something that did not happen until the last two years.
For those of us that were around during the pre-Smash 4 speculation days, we can remember an inverse of the present situation. Most character desires were dominated by Nintendo owned characters, and there were only a few third-party characters that were among the top fanbase desires.
There are several reasons for this. One is that as I mentioned before many of the big name and well known Nintendo characters have already been added in at this point. Outside of Mario universe characters, there are very few Nintendo characters recognizable to the casual Nintendo fan. Contrast that with how many recognizable third-party characters are still not on the roster.
The other factor is how the ball got rolling on the shift towards third-party desires. Up until the announcement of the Smash Ballot, the fanbase desires were mostly relegated towards Nintendo characters and a handful of third-party character that mostly had some sort of strong connection to the Nintendo brand or hardware.
It was the advent of the Smash Ballot that gave the fanbase the direct feeling that they could influence the roster to Smash Bros., and that “any character could get in with a large enough push”. It was in 2015 where we started to begin to see very large pushes for multiple third-party character and not just one at a time like was the case with Sonic during pre-Brawl or Mega Man during pre-Smash 4. The large scale pushes for Banjo & Kazooie, Shovel Knight, Rayman, and Shantae were during the ballot period.
The next key step for the rise of third-parties among the Smash Bros. fanbase’s desires was the confirmation of Cloud. Prior to Cloud’s confirmation, many felt that third-party characters that were added in for Smash Bros. needed to have some sort of strong connection or history with the Nintendo brand (Snake was seen as a sort of anomaly that only happened only due to a personal request from Hideo Kojima).
When Cloud was confirmed, that consensus was shattered. From at that point for a growing minority, Smash Bros. was now about more than just a celebration of all things Nintendo, but for gaming as a whole. From that point on, the fanbase desires for newcomers were almost a 50/50 split between Nintendo characters and third-parties.
However, there was one last critical event that caused this even split to tilt almost entirely to third-party characters. This was the November 2018 Smash Direct and the unveil of Joker a month later. It was during the November 2018 direct where a lot of the most highly requested remaining Nintendo characters were given seeming deconfirmations (Assist Trophy roles and/or Mii costumes), as well as the belief (with the exception of Geno) that spirits were deconfirmations.
Later when Joker was confirmed, it was a reprisal of the situation with Cloud where the character had a tenuous connection to Nintendo (his only appearance on Nintendo hardware at the time was the 3DS swansong spinoff Persona Q2). Reggie Fils-Aime added to the wild speculation for the rest of the pass with a comment that Joker was emblematic of the rest of the pass, and that they were characters that we would not expect to see in Smash Bros.
It was at that point on that the Smash fanbase’s desires consisted almost entirely of third-party characters. There was also a growing sort of consensus that only third-party characters were “hype producing” or could generate mass interest. This created a negative feedback loop to which drained out a lot of remaining interest in prospective Nintendo newcomers. They were not only seen as “unlikely” but also as “not hype inducing”.
It has gotten to the point where the only four Nintendo owned characters that seem to still have a significant fanbase among the “Smash Bubble” are Bandanna Waddle Dee, Waluigi, Isaac, Dixie Kong, and Rex & Pyra. This is a significant collapse. Only three of these characters are franchise mainstays (Bandanna Waddle Dee, Waluigi, and Dixie Kong), with Isaac hailing from a series without a new game in a decade, and with Rex & Pyra it is likely the pair will have much of their fanbase depreciate once a fully new Xenoblade installment is released.
There are three snapshots that can be provided to show the drastic change over time in relation to character desires for the Smash fanbase.
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The first is from late October 2014. This particular poll is notable as it was the last poll published by a long time mainstay of the pre-Smash 4 speculation community on SmashBoards, Shorts/shortiecanbrawl (he tragically died in a car accident a few weeks later). His niche in Smash speculation was to make polls and spread them to different Smash communities (GameFAQs, SmashBoards, 4chan, Reddit, etc.). He was also the preeminent supporter of Krystal during the pre-Smash 4 epoch.
This last poll he did is also particularly important because many of the characters that ranked highly in it ended up being added to Ultimate’s base roster (and DLC in the case of Banjo) or even DLC for Smash 4 (as was the case with Lucas, Roy, and Bayonetta).
Many of the Top 20 consists of veterans from prior Smash titles. Five of the Top 20 are veterans, and the Top 5 alone has three veterans (with another just barely out of the Top 5).
1. Lucas
2. Ice Climbers
3. Ridley
4. Wolf
5. K. Rool
6. Snake
7. Dixie Kong
8. Black Shadow
9. Isaac
10. Paper Mario
11. Banjo & Kazooie
12. Bandanna Dee
13. Krystal
14. Roy
15. Impa
16. Kamek
17. Hades
18. Waluigi
19. Ashley
20. Skull Kid
There are only two third-party characters in the whole of the Top 20 for this snapshot into the “old desires” of the Smash community, simply Snake and Banjo & Kazooie. One of these is a veteran, and the other is basically an honorary Nintendo character. Banjo’s performance in particular is extremely impressive because the character was seen as basically impossible still, and it was not until the Smash Ballot where there were many whom thought there existed a realistic shot towards inclusion. That should tell many here everything about the state of third-party character desires back in 2014. A seemingly impossible third-party character was by far the most wanted third-party character likely as a result of meshing well with the old theme of Smash Bros., a collection of Nintendo’s all-stars.
Removing the veterans from the poll provides a bit more insight into how third-party desires use to work for the Smash fanbase:
1. Ridley
2. K. Rool
3. Dixie Kong
4. Black Shadow
5. Isaac
6. Paper Mario
7. Banjo & Kazooie
8. Bandanna Dee
9. Krystal
10. Impa
11. Kamek
12. Hades
13. Waluigi
14. Ashley
15. Skull Kid
16. Simon Belmont
17. Bomberman
18. Dark Samus
19. Bayonetta
20. Ghirahim
21. Phoenix Wright
With the additional third-party entries that managed to make the Top 20 without the veterans there, we can further see “association with Nintendo or Nintendo hardware” as a significant indicator for support among third-parties prior to the Smash Ballot. Simon Belmont, Bomberman, and Phoenix Wright (I extended it to 21 simply because he is a character that fits well with this thesis) all have very long histories with Nintendo consoles and the software they starred in on those consoles are often considered among the most memorable of their respective console libraries. For many they are considered honorary Nintendo icons. For Bayonetta, Bayonetta 2 was among the biggest exclusives that the Wii U had, and thus she was taken under the wing by many Nintendo and Smash fans.
Even if including Phoenix Wright as part of a “Top 21”, only five of the Top 21 are third-party characters. The rest are all Nintendo characters.
A small interesting side note, is how much Geno’s fortunes changed from 2014 to now. Geno is ranked at #44 in this poll without veterans, and at #49 with veterans included. I cannot state how much specific events re-invigorated interest in this character. Other “relics” or one-shots from pre-Brawl prominence all ranked higher. Isaac and Krystal were big requests during pre-Brawl that managed to hold onto a significant portion of their requests (Isaac actually improved relative to his performance during pre-Brawl) throughout the pre-Smash 4 period. Characters like Dark Samus, Midna, Lyn, and Vaati, all that were major requests during the pre-Brawl period (though Vaati collapsed once Twilight Princess was released) had more requests than Geno for this poll. It was not a factor of “impossibility” considering you look at how a character literally owned by a competitor to Nintendo (Microsoft) was by far the most requested third-party character (it was not until 2015 where Spencer made the comments suggesting he was open to the idea of Banjo & Kazooie being a part of Smash Bros.). It was basically a combination of the Mii costume and Sakurai’s own personal endorsement (“he is pretty cool”) and his stated intention to make him playable during Brawl that got him on the Smash fanbase’s radar again.
For Dixie Kong fans, if you are wondering why she is doing so well here, it is simply because of her newfound prominence from Tropical Freeze as well as the feeling that DK deserved another newcomer. For many outside K. Rool’s fanbase, he was seen as a “relic” and thus no longer relevant to the DK brand, which thus buoyed Dixie’s support at the time. The Smash Ballot is what really helped K. Rool’s support even further. However, another factor was definitely that she was a seen as an extremely important Nintendo character that still was not yet part of the roster, and this was something that was seen as a major factor for character support prior to 2015.
Other strange anomalies from this poll should also be explained. Black Shadow ranks as high as he is because one of the strongest desires at the time was for Ganondorf to gain a completely new moveset as well as finding a character that would suitably fill Ganondorf’s current Smash moveset. There was a sense of wanting to give many long time Nintendo franchises an additional playable character, and Black Shadow to many seemed like the most fitting second choice for F-Zero (while also allowing Ganondorf to gain a new moveset). This same sense of wanting to give a long time franchise an additional playable character could probably extend as to why Kamek is ranking so high (seen as the natural second playable character for Yoshi).
With all of this said, this was pretty much what was typical of what character requests looked like prior to the Smash Ballot.
Back in March, we launched our Mega Smash Poll 2018 and before E3 we wanted to reveal all the newcomer’s fans wanted.
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For the next screenshot into the past, we are going to look at a poll that was released in June 2018, right before the time Ultimate was formally unveiled.
1. K. Rool
2. Waluigi
3. Shovel Knight
4. Bandanna Dee
5. Crash Bandicoot
6. Banjo & Kazooie
7. Rayman
8. Rex & Pyra
9. Ridley
10. Shantae
11. Decidueye
12. Bomberman
13. Isaac
14. Spring Man
15. Dixie Kong
16. Geno
17. Sora
18. Paper Mario
19. Takamaru
20. Impa
It is from this poll that we can see much of the consequences from the Smash Ballot, the emergence of new prominent Nintendo software (Xenoblade 2, ARMS, Pokemon Sun/Moon), as well as impacts from Sakurai’s own statements (notice how much Ridley fell and how much Geno rose). The four year interval between these polls shows that there was near 50/50 parity between third-party characters and Nintendo characters for newcomer desires among the Smash fanbase.
Only half of the Top 20 from 2014 is still part of 2018’s Top 20 despite only one character (Bayonetta) having been promoted towards playable status. Of the new characters to enter the Top 20 for 2018, six of them are third-party and four of them are Nintendo (with all with the exception of Takamaru being new characters that were created less than two years prior to this poll).
It is worth noting that characters like Rayman, Shovel Knight, and Shantae first got their first major prominence in the Smash fanbase during the Smash Ballot period.
It can thus be seen as recently as two years ago, that there was a still very large demand for Nintendo characters among the Smash fanbase. Even among the third-party characters of the Top 20, many of them have a very long history or strong connection with Nintendo. However, we can definitely see from this snapshot where the tides were gradually turning toward third-party possibilities.
It’s time for the first results from our Mega Smash Poll Ultimate edition! We conducted this poll back in March 2020 and asked the community a number of questions about how they play Super Sm…
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The last screenshot I am going to list for this discussion is a poll that was released on June 2020. It is at this point which where we can now see see the trends that some people in this thread have lamented about.
1. Crash Bandicoot
2. Geno
3. Doom Slayer
4. Sora
5. Dante
6. Rayman
7. Minecraft Steve
8. Master Chief
9. Bandanna Dee
10. Phoenix Wright
11. Reimu
12. Waluigi
13. Shantae
14. Travis Touchdown
15. Isaac
16. Dixie Kong
17. 2B
18. Rex & Pyra
19. Ryu Hayabusa
20. Arle
Only a quarter of the Top 20 has Nintendo characters. Only a single Nintendo character (barely) within the Top 10. There are even a few third-party characters that never had a proper appearance on a Nintendo console (Master Chief and 2B).
Similarly to the 2014 poll compared to the 2018 one, half (or in this case nearly half) of the characters from the prior poll still manged to be within the Top 20 of the next one. For Waluigi and Isaac in particular it is impressive considering how both managed to stay within the Top 10 despite both being Nintendo owned characters as well as both having Assist Trophy roles already in Ultimate (Bomberman, Shovel Knight, and Takamaru all basically collapsed for the 2020 poll).
The sheer collapse of Nintendo characters in the last two years was incredible. Outside the Top 20, there are only another four Nintendo characters from #21-50 (Paper Mario at #26, Porky at #30, Skull Kid at #37, and Elma at #44). This is very demoralizing to fans of Smash Bros. as a celebration of Nintendo.
As I said countless times before, I do not think we will be getting any more Nintendo newcomers in Ultimate (barring a miracle).
However, even still, it is quite possible the present trends last well after the DLC period. Smash is now seen as a celebration of gaming as a whole, as opposed to simply Nintendo and Nintendo affiliated franchises. Of the remaining highly requested Nintendo characters, only Waluigi and Bandanna Dee look to have near guaranteed futures as highly requested characters. For Dixie Kong, her future is largely contingent on whether a future major DK is made and whether she has a major role in that title. For Isaac, his future is largely tied to whether Golden Sun has a future (if there is not a Switch Golden Sun, he might very well find himself in a similar situation where Geno was during the first half of the 2010’s in terms of requests). I think for Rex & Pyra, they are destined to fall in requests as more Xenoblade titles are made.
Ultimate in many ways is a Janus, a transition between the old Smash of Nintendo All-Stars and the new Smash of a Gaming Celebration as a whole. Nearly half of the newcomers for Ultimate are third-party characters right now (9 out of 20 are third-party). I fully expect the remaining three newcomers for Ultimate to be third-party characters, leaving Ultimate with over half of its newcomers as third-party characters (12 out of 23 I expect to be third-party).
For Bandanna Waddle Dee and Waluigi (despite both being technically being characters that have been around for a long time), they are both characters that came intro prominence during the 2010’s. Dixie Kong by comparison, is a character whose highest prominence was back in the 90’s, and during the 2000’s she only existed in the background to the DK and Mario spinoffs, and it was only until Tropical Freeze where she again got to the forefront of the DK brand, only to be hurt by there having not been another DK title for at nearly seven years now.
Dixie Kong may not be the “last Nintendo All-Star” per see, but she is the last Nintendo character that headlined games in his/her own franchise that is still not part of Smash Bros.’s roster. For a large portion of the old guard of Smash Bros. supporters, she is the last remaining piece of the puzzle to them.
In regards to “long time requests” still not in Smash, there are many of those. Even going to those just from the pre-Brawl days, there is still Isaac, Geno, and Krystal (it is peculiar to see people say Geno is the last major request from the pre-Brawl days, when Isaac still had a very large fanbase up until two years ago, and Krystal was still highly requested during the Ballot period).
Dixie Kong has never been a titan in terms of requests. There have been points where she has been a part of the Top 10 and consistently been a part of the Top 20, but she has never been at the forefront of the fanbase’s desires. Aside from E3 2013 to the Smash Ballot, she has never been within striking distance of the most highly requested characters.
However, what those snapshot of the polls from 2014, 2018, and 2020 show is this: that Dixie Kong has a fanbase that has stood beside her despite all the tribulations and titanic shifts that have occurred over the last six years. Dixie Kong does not make waves with her fanbase, but she is among the few still left standing as far as Nintendo characters go.
I do not know what the future holds for Dixie Kong and her fanbase going forward. Many of her fans in this thread (including myself) have stated intentions to leave the Smash speculation and the character support scene once Ultimate’s DLC wraps up. If Dixie Kong is going to have a future she is going to need to gain a new generation of fans. The re-release of the DKC trilogy on the Switch online certainly helps in this regard (especially considering how well DKC2 and DKC3 have held up), however, she is going to need all new source material in general for her to fill the shoes left behind by Ridley and K. Rool. In regards to that, the future is very uncertain, even if a new DK title were to be announced next year (her role and prominence in a major DK title is very uncertain considering she has a long track record of missing out on critical major DK titles, examples include Diddy Kong Racing, Donkey Kong 64, Donkey Kong Jungle Beat, and Donkey Kong Country Returns).
That is what the 2014 poll might show. Hope. Dixie Kong could possibly be the heir to the crown left behind by Ridley and K. Rool. She, just like them, is an iconic part to her franchise and fits in with the old meaning of what Smash Bros. was (a celebration of Nintendo) and in a way fits in with its new meaning (a celebration of gaming as a whole).
In the right circumstances, much like Geno has shown (look at where he was in the 2014 poll compared to where he is in the 2020 poll), she could have a massively revitalized fanbase. I do not know how this will come about, or if it will even ever come about, but I think she might given the right set of events, become one of the most wanted characters for Smash.
Dixie Kong is a rare (pun intended) heroine who somehow manages to appeal across demographics. “Cute, cool, badass.” She in many ways is the female Mario.
This sort of history lesson I hope offered some insight into how the desires to the Smash Bros. fanbase has changed over the last six years. I know it is disheartening for those who mostly support Nintendo characters to see this, but it is what it is. The fact is that things have changed, and we could can only make due with what the situation that has been given.
Even in such an undesirable circumstance for possible Nintendo newcomers, Dixie Kong still has a large base of support for her among the “Smash Bubble”.
Two years ago, I stated that I had basically lost nearly all hope in Dixie Kong being a part of Ultimate’s roster (this was after Joker was unveiled which seemed to signal the direction that most of Ultimate’s DLC would take). Since then, Ultimate’s DLC did take a few turns that I did not foresee at the time such as a second round of DLC and additional Nintendo characters added to roster. However, despite these developments, I do not feel any more optimistic on Dixie Kong’s prospects than I did in December 2018.
However, in the time since, I still tried to support Dixie Kong in small ways and this little community has continued to rally around her despite her prospects having changed very little.
However, what these polls show is hope. Look at Geno, he went from barely within the Top 50 in 2014, to the Top 3 in 2020. Very specific circumstances can drastically change not just a character’s perceived prospects for Smash but also fan demand for the character.
For Dixie Kong, while in 2014 she enjoyed a lot of support, a lot of it was based off her seeming “likely” as well as her seeming to be an obvious choice for inclusion (DK seemed long overdue for a third playable character, K. Rool’s last appearance in his own series was seven years ago at that point). However, at the same time, it shows that Dixie is indeed capable of becoming a part of the overall Top 10 most wanted characters.
For Dixie Kong, much like it took for Diddy Kong, K. Rool, and Banjo & Kazooie, she would need a lot of support in order to finally be noticed and considered for inclusion. Right now, Dixie supporters have done most of what they can given the circumstances. She is probably among the Top 5 most wanted Nintendo characters overall, but we are now in an epoch where the character desires have shifted dramatically over to third-party characters.
Secondly, prior her debut in Mario Kart Tour, Dixie’s last new game appearance was in 2014’s Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze. For most characters, they need a contemporary appearance in order to buoy demand for them. The re-release of the DKC trilogy for the Switch Online and her playable debut in Mario Kart Tour were positive developments, but she is going to be much more to be on the radar again for most Smash fans.
I feel Dixie Kong might be the true heir to the legacy of K. Rool and Ridley. No, she does not have the legions of passionate supporters that they do, but the fans that she does have really do like her, and many of her current fanbase is made up of those that had also supported K. Rool and Ridley. This is anecdotal, but I see many people whom had supported Ridley and K. Rool remark that Dixie seems to be “last piece to the puzzle”. Dixie Kong, much like Ridley and K. Rool, is a big part to the identity of her series, it seems fitting she was just behind those two titans in terms of votes in 2014.
A lot has changed in terms of the characters that the Smash fanbase now gravitates to, but Dixie Kong still manged to somehow still be a character that a sizable portion of the fanbase still asks for. She might not represent a new world to Smash Bros., but she like many of the newcomers added to Melee, Brawl, Smash 4, and Ultimate is a major icon to her respective franchise.
Character support can rise and fall given particular circumstances micro and macro. Particular circumstances (those circumstances pertaining only to one character or one series) or broader circumstances (trends that impact broad varieties of characters such as the shift from Nintendo characters to third-party characters). We cannot predict what circumstances might arise to hurt or help a character’s level of support, but as can be seen, there are situations that can very much hurt their support, or help them rise spectacularly.
That concludes my comprehensive essay looking at three different epochs of character support for Smash. I think Dixie Kong given the right circumstances has the potential to massively boost the support there is for her. Who knows when it might happen though, or if it will ever happen. Regardless, I wanted to make a massive work that showed how much the dynamics to character support have changed among the Smash fanbase over the past six years. It took me a year to actually get it out though. I hope it was worth it in the end and provided something interesting to consider and look at for those who chose to make it through this massive work.
Thank you very much for your time and patience in making it through this essay. I hope it was worth your time and that it might have given some of you additional insight or thoughts for consideration.
Handy Man
Man that was such a good read. I loved hearing you're experiences with the franchise especially your DK64 experience as I had the exact same experience. I love the Kongs but to me K.Rool and his Kremlings were always the more interesting characters in the franchise to me due to DK64. Thats why it hurt me so much when they were left out of Jungle Beat, Returns, AND Tropical Freeze.
!
