Decisive Games NewD3 Mafia (GAME OVER!)

[fontisian]

Font when you said Eido was a slam dunk case did you genuinely think no need look beyond him - or was it sales rhetoric to get people to vote your way

Genuinely thought that. The "trust fonti thing" uh, pinged me really, really hard.

 

[Wam]

Font can you link me that post?

 

[fontisian]

Anyway, I think it's Laser.

 

[fontisian]

Hmm, no, two more things.

1.The idea that I would possibly treat a scummate like I've treated Wam this game is actually kind of insulting.

2. " On balance, your analysis so far feels very hedgy to me. Like you're more interested in trying to keep as many options open as you can for yeeting people, rather than actually trying to sort."

*****, I have been going out my way to shut down bad yeets. Eido is drowning under pressure? I townread him. People are starting to turn on Gorf? Townread for him too. Eido and Gorf are still fighting? I try to give them a framework so they can get to better reads on each other. Wam's an easy misyeet pretty much every game? Sure, I'll share a townread there too. I'm not really townreading Eido that much but he's still getting an overwhelming number of questions, some of which are pointless? I'll volley the pointless ones for him and try to give him a little bit of breathing room. I don't talk about my suspicions as they build until I need to flesh out my views to keep my own position viable, because the extra pressure on Eido won't be helpful. You're hard townreading Eido, you should be seeing how much I have adjusted to help town!him dig his way out of this.

I'm not attacking or defending Somi, who has a high chance of ending up as the yeet Today if Eido recovers because I want to see what he'll do. I'm no defending Maven because my read on him is going to depend on what /he chooses to do/ when he comes back. The places they go and how they use their time will let me read them, and interfering now, when I want to see what they choose, how they spend their limited time the thread. The notes they don't play.

Town!you has understood this in the past, you got that I defend people in proportion to my townreads on them and to the extent I think is useful. You got that I give people rope to either defend on hang themselves with.

This one, Wam?

 

[fontisian]

At the time I posted that no one was going after Somi, it was just where I was thinking of voting as I cleared more people and starting gravitating towards wanting to yeet a lurker. I was looking at Somi more than Maven, iirc, because Maven had a post with decent tone I think. I figured your vote on Somi after came as a response to this?

 

[Wam]

I will give you that was first but it's even weirder to me. There was 0 pressure on Somi then and I don't think anyone else was talking to them about the yeet. As well it backs up my post here, where there is TMI in that post.

This paragraph is very weird to me. Far too confident in knowing what are good and bad yeets .

Answer to many questions:

Wam In general, how do you read Swiss? Answers to this from anyone are welcome.

Town - subject to reread but at the moment being the counter wagon Somi jumped on looks good.

Wam

You've started both day phases with font votes, but done nothing with them.

Why

Because the support hasn't been there and we need to hammer.

Wam when you get to this, I'm curious about why you pinged Somi out here. Seemed a bit out of left field.

Thread not going anywhere and as previously stated Maven had mentioned real life issues and whilst it's a cliche lynching lurkers is generally a good idea.

Why does Somi need more content, but not Maven?

This feels like it could be read as a gotcha question. It's not, I think there could be a legit town reason.

See above

Spoiler

It's ****ing Wam you guys.

I colored the paragraph Wam quoted. I think it's notable that he started responding negatively to me just after I started talking about how I thought we'd probably end up yeeting Somi.

I flagged it for you having TMI or giving the impression of TMI.

Class your homework is to re-read posts #710 to #720.

I'm back in circa 10 hours

I read it and subject to re-read I think my top two town are Bessie (meta), Swiss ( Somi EOD 1 behaviour) which by POE leaves laser. But I still think Font is more likely.

I don't actually think this is scummy from Wam (I know Swiss did). I think he just assumes people are going to scumread him, regardless of his alignment.

Yep.

I think that's everything that I owed responses too.

 

[Wam]

fontisian

Going back to EOD 1. You say I need to view "how" you approached it. But that doesn't work. How can I tell what is serious, what is exploring options and what is promoting the game forward.

 

[Wam]

Also font your reads are jumping. Eido day 1 was lock town day 2 lock scum. Start of the day laser was town now hes scum. To me looks more scum trying to find an elim not town working through.

 

[fontisian]

fontisian

Going back to EOD 1. You say I need to view "how" you approached it. But that doesn't work. How can I tell what is serious, what is exploring options and what is promoting the game forward.

Also font your reads are jumping. Eido day 1 was lock town day 2 lock scum. Start of the day laser was town now hes scum. To me looks more scum trying to find an elim not town working through.

I mean, one way to view it is results, yeah? My approach D1 ended with Somi being yeeted, partially due to the points I made against him and partially because I brought him up as a yeet in the first place. As scum, I'm normally pretty good at keeping my partners alive for at least a Day longer than they think they can.

My read on Eido changed because of how he treated me at eod1, and because his interactions with and around Somi looked really bad. I was townreading him off of tone mostly from D1, so when I saw him try to save Somi I figured I must have been underestimating his ability to fake a decent tone. I went back to Werewolves and Mafia to check, and found pretty similar tonal beats (which was likely because he didn't know who the scumteam was).

My read on Laser isn't really changing that much. I went into the Day reassessing my positions to make sure they're good. Then I cleared Bessie, who seems the most transparently town. Then I wondered if it was Swiss, and then confirmed for myself that it probably isn't. Then I was down to you and Laser, and I liked Laser's tunnel to an extent. But now I think you're town, and Laser's feels kind of wooden? Like his language is emotionless, and it doesn't feel like he really thinks I'm scum, whereas I believe it coming from you. So I'm back to the exact same readlist I had Yesterday, minus Eido. (Bessie > Swiss > Wam > Laser)

 

[Wam]

Tbh font I think you need to convince bessie not me. If I'm reading the room. Currently

Font, swiss are going laser
Wam, laser are going font.

bessie swing vote.

 

[fontisian]

Tbh font I think you need to convince bessie not me. If I'm reading the room. Currently

Font, swiss are going laser
Wam, laser are going font.

bessie swing vote.

I am pretty sure the only thing I could do to convince Bessie is flip or yeet the wolf.

 

[fontisian]

I think it may be better for our overall wim chances if I am yeeted Today, as weird and antithetical to my entire playstyle as that if. You all are slightly more likely to hit in final three if I'm not there as the last misyeet than I am to hit Today. 1/4 odds base, compared to 1/3 odds. And if we yeet Laser Today and he's town, that's pretty much an auto loss, as both Wam and Bessie are definitely voting me in final 3.

That said, I do think it's Laser.

It may be helpful for you all to do analysis like I've already flipped town and then yeet me, so you're more prepared for that final 3.

 

[fontisian]

wam and Swiss both look like pretty solid clears from that wagon.

I feel like fonti pushing Swiss wagon was a last-ditch effort to push away from somi after Maven claimed. Still liking this at the moment.

Vote: fonti

The "still liking this at the moment" is really weakly worded. Laser thinks Wam and Swiss should be cleared, Maven is an actual clear, and he thinks Bessie and Eido are both very town. I should be the only good yeet from his pov, so why isn't this stronger.

I also don't get why he cleared Swiss "off the wagon" when he didn't like Swiss the Day before. Are scum v scum wagons something Laser never considers?

And why did it take me pointing it out for him to look at eido again? Why isn't that something he's just doing to try to figure out the game?

 

[Swiss]

Font what reaction did you expect toDay, given you offer yourself as the lynch and then try to argue against it. Why should we trust you when you're openly lying?

 

[Wam]

I think it may be better for our overall wim chances if I am yeeted Today, as weird and antithetical to my entire playstyle as that if. You all are slightly more likely to hit in final three if I'm not there as the last misyeet than I am to hit Today. 1/4 odds base, compared to 1/3 odds. And if we yeet Laser Today and he's town, that's pretty much an auto loss, as both Wam and Bessie are definitely voting me in final 3.

That said, I do think it's Laser.

It may be helpful for you all to do analysis like I've already flipped town and then yeet me, so you're more prepared for that final 3.

I agree if your town the above is right. Its one of my regrets from things that I didnt let myself be yeeted and I was the easy target in end game

 

[Swiss]

If Wam were scum, making a case on Font is exactly the right move to do. I'm hard on Laser, and he only needs 2 misyeets. Anyway ....

Font's push away from Somi is scummy. Her then trying to re-colour the past is scummy/nai. Font's push on Eido is scummy. Font's behaviour, the attitude and arrogance is townie. Two big heads to heads.

Anyway.

Vote: Somitomi

Rip somi, see you on the other side.

But to make this post in bolded, as scum - is insanity.

Huge dislike on Font saying they had no intention of yeeting me. This is a lie. Doesn't read true, reads like someone tryign to re-hash the past.

Earlier in my mind I had Laser as the Spider in his web, and Font as the bull in a china shop. Which made me like Font more overall. I'm seeing more and more Font 'oh yeah but XYZ I didn't really mean it'. Why not just say 'yep i was wrong'. Why the effort of posting so much, so against consensus, to protect character?


Laser has been and still is my top scum pick. Despite Font's best efforts to look scummy. I think Laser made those NK's for reasons stated, I think Laser has to make a Wam case toDay so he has a chance in the final 3. #710 thru #720 is yeet worthy imo.

Font is hard to read because she's clearly intelligent and can manipulate. I think her ego is her biggest town tell, her play is her biggest scum tell. I dislike greatly how her reads on Eido, at every stage in the game, were opposite to mine. Losing to a scum!Font would greatly annoy me, and I don't think the gambit is very good. But sometimes the worst play is the best play. It's not about what you do, it's about how others interpret.

Bessie Locktown, if I'm wrong game over gg I retire.

Wam, Wam is probably town.

Vote: Laser

 

[Swiss]

If Laser flips town, kill Font toMorrow.

But let me re-read Wam again

 

[Swiss]

The "still liking this at the moment" is really weakly worded. Laser thinks Wam and Swiss should be cleared, Maven is an actual clear, and he thinks Bessie and Eido are both very town. I should be the only good yeet from his pov, so why isn't this stronger.

I also don't get why he cleared Swiss "off the wagon" when he didn't like Swiss the Day before. Are scum v scum wagons something Laser never considers?

And why did it take me pointing it out for him to look at eido again? Why isn't that something he's just doing to try to figure out the game?

Are you just quoting the Laser posts I dislike the most and making it look like you're arriving at the same conclusions?

 

[fontisian]

Are you just quoting the Laser posts I dislike the most and making it look like you're arriving at the same conclusions?

I did not know you disliked that one until now. I'm rereading and quoting things that stand out as I go.

 

[fontisian]

Font what reaction did you expect toDay, given you offer yourself as the lynch and then try to argue against it. Why should we trust you when you're openly lying?

I'm still offering myself as the yeet, my dude.

 

[Swiss]

Vote yourself then

 

[fontisian]

I'm not lying about not really wanting to yeet, and I don't really know how to show that without pointing to my meta and what I do when I am trying to yeet someone.

I hammer it in, I repeat the strongest points, I push harder whenever the wagon falters. My case against you was literally put in spoilers so people would find it easier to skip over. I did not seize on any main points or try to argue your scumminess. I made a case in a dead gamestate that I knew probably wouldn't get much traction but that would probably produce some discussion, and then I had some fun with it. I straight up agreed with you when you said my case wasn't going to get you yeeted, because I thought the only way it would get you yeeted was if you were scum who implodes under a bit of pressure.

 

[fontisian]

Vote yourself then

No.

 

[Swiss]

First post - no.

Second post - exactly how are you offering yourself as the yeet if you’re actively working against it.

 

[fontisian]

I was waiting for font to answer as theres one thing that doesn't make sense to me.

I dont see how you come to point 4 within 8 minutes of the day starting if you didnt know the NKs in advance.

But don't worry font if I'm wrong we can lynch eido tomorrow.

I do not think it's Wam. I think he was genuinely processing what I was do and considering my answers. Even though the read on me was static, the reasons for it evolved organically.

 

[fontisian]

First post - no.

Second post - exactly how are you offering yourself as the yeet if you’re actively working against it.

Because it's my ****ing job. I have told you all that it may be better for the gamestate to yeet me, if you cannot figure out that I'm town, because if you can't get there now then you definitely will not in Final 3. But I'll be damned if I'm going to roll over and die without doing my part to find scum and help you see me as town.

 

[fontisian]

Let’s say Eido is a rolecop

he still couldn’t tell if it’s b1 or b2

because he doesn’t know

so it’s more likely he’s just a bit silly than that being a scum tell - because he can’t be acting with insideknowledge

Swiss genuinely trying to figure things out.

 

[Swiss]

Because it's my ****ing job. I have told you all that it may be better for the gamestate to yeet me, if you cannot figure out that I'm town, because if you can't get there now then you definitely will not in Final 3. But I'll be damned if I'm going to roll over and die without doing my part to find scum and help you see me as town.

So don’t sit there and say you’re offering yourself as the yeet if you’re not then?

How is this difficult for you to comprehend

 

[fontisian]

Some notes on somi/fonti up to end of page 10. My comments are in blue:

Spoiler

fonti throws somi into a scumteam with bessie based on a 'shroop'. This is never really followed up.



Says somi is null despite this.



somi doesn't ask what the shroop was or follow up in any way. Doesn't seem concerned.



fonti backpedals. The first of many.



This is fonti's strongest push vs. somi.



But not scum.



somi posts his reads just before this.




Based on comments by Sabrar and I, fonti comes up with this analysis, drops scumread on somi





Switches focus to Swiss with yeetbait Maven as backup.



somi now Townlean.

tl;dr: fonti puts some marginal pressure on somi with the weird 'shroop' thing, but never really follows up on it. Pushes a little against somi, but finds an excuse to back off and move against Swiss and/or Maven instead. Creates distance early, but does what she can to save him when it matters. Although it hadn't occurred to me until the page just dropped half of my quotes as I was writing this, the shroop thing seems really specious considering that these boards lose parts of posts all the time.

This case is bad, I've talked about it before. It handwaves me arguing against Somi as me looking for a way out of a push I started, and doesn't bother to quote most of those posts. I don't "create distance early" as scum by undermining my partners, especially distance as weak as that, and Laser knows this. i prop my partners up and give them the early support to get them into the towncircle, so their yeet isn't even on the table by eod. And if I'm going to bus, I get credit for it.

Laser is usually thoughtful in his approach, he thinks of alternative reasons for what's happening and explores them before dismissing them. He doesn't do that here, and then end result is that this feels more like a hit job than a genuine read.

 

[fontisian]

So don’t sit there and say you’re offering yourself as the yeet if you’re not then?

How is this difficult for you to comprehend

I would like to die so I don't have to explain things to you anymore.

Me conceding that I may be the best yeet Today is the most I have ever conceded to that in any town game, ever. I will not self vote, get over it.

 

[fontisian]

Font i hope you take the below as a compliment.

Look at it this way if they choice is between eido and font today, even if I think eido is slightly more likely to be scum, I am 100% staying on font as when we get closer to EOD I know which one I would be worried about.

I don't think Wam is almost apologetic about wanting to yeet like this if he's scum.

 

[fontisian]

I think LaserGuy likelier makes the kill on Sabrar:







Talk of engagement levels could be a clue Scum!Laser has identified Sabrar as a PR threat, maybe? I'll deep dive tonight on more of his content.

Eido talks about how Laser might have picked up on Sabrar being PR because of his lower engagement level, noted.

 

[fontisian]

I am curious how you came to the conclusion that the somi wagon was pure and scum must be in one of the three people on vanity wagons. Why couldn't scum be bussing?



I had somi at nullTown. I don't generally evaluate people on activity, especially a player like somi who chronically has problems with keeping up regardless of alignment. I'd much rather go for a scumread than a lurker yeet.



I'm not sure where you're getting this from? I like Eido and think fonti is scum. I have been pushing fonti since middle of D1.

Why is Laser saying "why couldn't scum be bussing" when he's also arguing that I'm scum who was trying to save Somi?

 

[fontisian]

Eido Pages 1-4

Spoiler

I feel that Eido's persistence/belligerence on the point about the scum quickhammer in this opening sequence still strikes me as townie, as does that he doesn't understand the 8/10 comment. Though it is interesting that he missed this latter point but immediately understood the implication of how a JK/tracker would be problematic of a lone scum.



somi snarks at Eido.



Eido interprets somi snark as somi pushing him.



I feel like Eido's interest in the quickhammer scenario and how it relates to this game is probably legitimate. It comes across as townie to me but I could envision scum getting stuck on this sort of point for players of a certain disposition (e.g. Sabrar).



I like that Eido is very thorough with his follow ups.



somitomi's positioning in this list is kind of interesting. It looks like it is chronological, but somi/Maven are out of order, I guess.



The ordering here is different but somi first again.



Ordering here doesn't match the one above despite this being the same post.



I don't think Eido's process is correct here, but I like that he's thinking about the process.

tl;dr mostly this is focused on the interactions between Eido and Gorf. I like Eido in this sequence for the most part. I did notice that there were a few cases where Eido lists a bunch of players pushing him several times and the ordering keeps changing except somi is always in front. Might be a null tell but it's interesting.


Eido page 5-8

Spoiler

somi questions bessie's read on Eido.



somi talks a lot about Eido here. I could believe this is distancing.



Shroop #1



This evaluation of fonti is pretty nuanced.



somi says Eido probably Town but also hedges.



Noting somi is dropped from this discussion whereas he was part of it in the earlier section.



I'm curious how he got this read on Maven but doesn't have anything on somi here.



Eido had a lot of opinions about somi earlier so this seems a little out of place.





Shroop #2, more discussion of Eido with bessie.



The ordering of this list doesn't really make a lot of sense to me compared to what is written about each player. Also a LOT of these are referenced to how the player has interacted with Eido. Eido himself is very low in the list despite somi's townread on him being quite strong.

Not much of interest from Eido in this section, but this is where the bulk of somi's content is. I honestly hadn't really paid attention to how much time somi spends talking about Eido. A significant number of his reads reference the early interactions with Eido as their reasoning, and he spends a lot of time arguing with bessie about Eido. Definitely get a buddy vibe.


Page 9-Eod1

Spoiler

Just noting this explanation.



Noncommital on somi despite similar feelings on somi/Maven



More arguing with bessie over Eido from somi.



somi doesn't like Gorf/Swiss focusing too much on Eido.



Eido thinking about moving to Swiss here.



I'm unsure how to read this. My initial impression was that this was possibly a PR slip from Eido as bessie had suggested, but that is apparently not the case.



Eido moves to bessie.



Moves to somi.



Weird that somi didn't claim a PR here.



This looks very bad in retrospect. Way too eager.



Votes somi.

Eido explores a couple of different options for counterwagons to somi without much success. His EoD vote on Swiss looks very suss.


Pages D2start-presentish

Spoiler

Immediately defensive.



Trying to dismiss the vote switch. I don't like the implicit assumption that scum must be off wagon.



I agree with this analysis.



I agree with this as well. These two are kind of gimmes though.



This explanation feels lacking.



Eido finds it strange that the people who know somi best (including Sabrar) are more cautious in their evaluation of him than people who have played with him once or never and were evaluating him solely on activity. Okay.



Eido hasn't answered my question about this.



Feels defensive.

Eido defensive about his late vote switch to Swiss, but quickly pivots to his current push where he's focusing on the off wagon and softclearing everyone (including himself) who was on wagon.


In isolation, I like a lot of Eido's content. He puts in a lot of effort and while I don't necessarily agree with where he's going with a lot of his thought processes, he does a good job making it clear how he's evaluating things and why.

That said, there are a lot of interesting interactions between Eido and somi, going in both directions. somi spends an awful lot of time talking about Eido and how other players are evaluating him, and Eido spends a good portion of EoD1 looking for viable counterwagons to somi and doesn't seem to have a consistent picture of where somi fits into, e.g. the early pressure on him.

Pretty good chance they're buddies. Need to spend some time thinking about fonti.

Unvote

for now.

In retrospect, this feels too close to a townread to be good. It's fence sitting, with Laser still saying Eido looks good in a lot of places (and he didn't include some of Eido's better posts towards eod1), so it's strange to me that this turned into Laser being willing to vote Eido over me, instead of pushing for me at eod2. He put significantly more effort into the cases against me and seemed a lot more sure, so this feels like opportunism.

 

[Wam]

Font today laser tomorrow bish bash bosh game done in time for tea and crumpets.

 

[fontisian]

I would consider self-voting in exchange for a crumpet. Tea not necessary, I can provide my own.

 

[Swiss]

I would like to die so I don't have to explain things to you anymore.

Me conceding that I may be the best yeet Today is the most I have ever conceded to that in any town game, ever. I will not self vote, get over it.

For someone on the rocks you sure are cocky

 

[fontisian]

 

[fontisian]

This logic is very strange. Reads on Town players are independent of each other. Being correct on Sabrar and Gorf doesn't imply that your townread of any other player is any more or less likely to be correct.



I think it's called a Hot Hand Fallacy.



You don't feel that Wam's position on the somi wagon is Town-indicative?

I think I've convinced myself that this is probably correct. In an ideal world I think I'd still prefer to yeet fonti first, but I'm willing to accept the possibility that what I'm seeing is just my paranoia about her.

Vote: Eido

I'm not really sure what ultimately convinced Laser to vote Eido. He just calls Eido's logic strange, but that doesn't mean it's scummy. I also don't get why he think his scumread on me is maybe just paranoia, when he had a bunch of logic about me trying to protect Somi before and he's not walking that back in any way,

 

[fontisian]

L-1 I'm happy to hammer but I know font st least wanted more time.

Wam feels consistently chill through the game, I appreciate it and think it's probably towny.