I don't know...if we do have at least 50, and we are guaranteed Mewtwo, Ridley, and the gematsu three, and the usual 11 veterans....we'd be at 49. So who would our last one or two characters be (depending on whether or not Lucas returns)?
Yes, Mewtwo and Ridley are typical troll suggestions, but they are also very likely. Especially Ridley given how he has been teased virtually nonstop (very peculiar for a mere boss or stage hazard). Besides, even if he gets all four, he has suggested the following:
- Shulk seems to have been the most complete of all the characters mentioned.
- Ridley has a unique flying mechanic; kind of like gliding, only it doesn't suck.
- Ridley seemed to have been a late addition to the roster, likely one of the last ones added due to fan demand.
- Mewtwo seemed to have been glossed over when shown and wasn't given much thought or consideration.
- The Chorus Kids, while presented, were not allowed to be tried out.
- Chrom was never mentioned or shown off in any capacity, so his status as a playable character is a mystery.
It seems that there are more checks to take into consideration that just confirmation. For example if Shulk seems to be the most complete character shown, then it is to suggest that he would be the most likely newcomer to be revealed. It seems kind of odd too that this leak was almost a whole week before Sakurai announced another newcomer video coming Monday morning. Add to that the hints surrounding the developers at Monolift Soft tweeting about the Smash announcement, it seems almost a certainty that we will be getting Shulk Monday in spite of the lack of evidence or presence of him or Xenoblade Chronicles as a whole in Smash Brothers so far. If anything, Monday is the one chance Shulk has at being revealed before launch. Otherwise, I will doubt the credibility of any leak with Shulk in it until I am proven otherwise.
Next character is Ridley, who has two checks to his name. The first is pretty self-explanatory; if he does not come packaged with a unique flying mechanic that is like gliding, then we'll know the leak is fake, even if the character does get confirmed. The second part, however, is a bit tricky. The fact that he was tested out by a select few seems to suggest that he's further along done than characters like the Chorus Kids or presumably Ice Climbers. And yet, he was apparently one of the last characters added, if not THE last. If this is true, then chances are, we probably wouldn't get a reveal trailer for him, at least not until reasonably late. And even then, he's likely not just a secret character, but also one of the last characters to unlock given the history in which characters with low priorities tend to fall in the order. So if first part doesn't get fulfilled, then it's fake. If second part doesn't follow my theories, then it's at least likely to be suspicious at least.
Fourth checkpoint is Mewtwo, and given the supposed low priority to Mewtwo, it seems to suggest that he may not get a trailer at all, and will simply be given a veteran's welcome. Maybe through a pic of the day, but either way, there's really no reason to expect anything less than a secret character revealed post-launch without a newcomer trailer. Villains generally don't get the newcomer love anyways (with a couple exceptions, of course), so there you go. I don't know; it may have sounded like he just took notice of the character rather than having been talked about.
The fifth check seems to involve the Chorus Kids not allowed to be played, suggesting something unusual. It suggests that they are not ready to be played, and were compared to the Ice Climbers and Mr. Game & Watch. He also said they were given a presentation. This likely suggests that, if anything, they'd be one of the last characters revealed. But on the other hand, it could also mean to suggest that, if the gematsu leak is simply revealing newcomers that are to have trailers, they'd be the last characters from the leak to be revealed, and would likely be revealed in September. Now, if this doesn't follow through based on how the leak was structured, then it won't disconfirm the leak at all. But it is worth using to map itself out how these characters might get revealed.
The final check is the notable omission of Chrom. And on top of that, his total, plus the usual number of veterans predicted to come back, would add up to 48 characters total, which means we'd be short three guys. That's about 15 newcomers give or take depending on whether or not Mewtwo counts, and whether or not Lucas is coming back. Now, of the three missing pieces, Chrom is not only most likely to be revealed before launch, but is most likely to get an August Direct. Now, I could perhaps understand if this guy never noticed or couldn't identify him. But what's amazing is that he wasn't one of the three characters shown off at all, and you'd think this'd be a sign he'd be post-launch, but then it'd be crazy to expect a reveal trailer of any sort. I do believe that if the gematsu leak is to hold any water, then the only possible outcome from this is that this guy tested out the game, and never got to talk about Chrom since he was hounded out by trolls. But, if we are to take any credibility with the gematsu leak, if I am to predict when Chrom would be announced, based on the details surrounding Shulk and the Chorus Kids, I can only assume it'd be the August Direct.
But after Chrom, who else would fill in the one or two shoes? Depending on whether or not Lucas comes back, we could potentially have either one more newcomers we don't know about, or two. We could likely point that he'd recognize them if they were someone notable like K. Rool or Isaac, but given just how stupid this guy seemed to have come across, I could possibly believe that this guy would not recognize either of them on face value. In addition, he never got to reveal any more details beyond these four characters, and what we could speculate from what we were given. So who those one or two mystery characters may be remains to be seen. Heck, if the Mii Fighters share their slot with the Random icon like some people say, then we could have as many as three mystery characters, or as many as 15-17 newcomers (depending with Mewtwo or Lucas, again). That is a ton more than I'm expecting. Or, the Mii Fighters would simply take up three slots, and the newcomers listed plus Chrom is all we're getting. Who knows?
Now, how I came up with the math of 51 stemmed from the fact that there were at least 50 playable characters in total. Now, we don't know if this guy was either rounding or just making educated guesses, but I'm going to assume that it's a perfect rectangle yet again since he also said there would be four roads. 51+Random equals 52 in a 4x13 rectangle that would undoubtedly fit on the Wii U. Also, based on the knowledge that he said four rows, it is a safe bet to assume that he played the Wii U version, and that this guy was a tester from the outside hired to help provide outside opinions to help speed up the debugging purposes. This in turn, actually supports and adds up to why the Wii U is being released so much later than the 3DS version, and fits in with both Brawl's post-production history as well as what Sakurai has confirmed for us. It's a smart tactic when one thinks about it since further comments from that page seems to suggest that he was returning home, and that we wasn't to witness any further. By not showing off all the characters towards these testers, but only a select few, they limit their input on potential leaks. By taking out all photography, or video recording, the entire final roster isn't leaked. And even if somebody like this guy were to leak such sensitive information, they would not be taken as seriously. If nothing else, the gematsu leak and how many people treat it like a sacred cow actually helps keep the other characters' secrecy in check should this sort of thing were to happen. He's likely not going to be spilling anymore beans anytime soon even if he wanted to. A shame, because if he revealed a couple new stages for the Wii U, that too, could have been used for cross-examination purposes.
He could be acting. He could be bogus. But he is sort of dimwitted enough to reveal this sort of information. Chances are, he probably wouldn't know who Shulk was unless he was the first character shown off. Heck, he doesn't even know what game he is from, so that's supporting him. We'll see, but either way, I do think we will be seeing Ridley as a playable character, and we are likely to get Shulk and Chorus Kids down the road anyways. Mewtwo...either on the final roster, or as DLC. Really, the only things working against him is whether or not all four of these characters make it in the final product, whether or not Ridley has a unique flying mechanic that would put gliding in past games to shame, and whether or not the Wii U version will have only four rows ("at least 50" can be argued to be him simply rounding).
But, everything else seems to be able to be used as an indicator on when we can expect to see these characters. And what luck that in less than a week after he leaked this information, we will be getting a Monday reveal. Let's see if we actually get Shulk out of this. Because if it does, then this whole rest of the cast could easily fall into place. The only question is: If this leak and gematsu are 100% true, then who else will be joining the fight? Hints suggest King K. Rool; Lucas could always make a return as well. Or it could be someone else that nobody has expected. Are there really any characters left on par with Mr. Game & Watch AND ROB in terms of being retro, historically significant, AND completely WTF? Could that character be that new WTF character?
Also, back on Chrom: I think Chrom being revealed in August can actually support my version exclusive starter theory. So far, the only character revealed that seems like a surefire secret character in both versions of the game is Pac-Man. Maybe Mega Man and Sonic as well, but I have this feeling that they will both be starters this time around. The odd ducks so far appear to be Shulk and Chorus Kids since we all assumed they'd be unlockable, and for all I know, they very well could be. Again, version exclusivity, but also in the case of CK, maybe given a reveal trailer shortly after the game comes out.
That's all for the night. I'll discuss this further tomorrow morning.