PP, from what I've read, Umbreon and you have done a lot of talking/theorycrafting/analysis (and practice?). My impression from Umbreon is that he thinks it should (mostly?) be possible to outplay a character within the game (and that is his aim when playing) and that generally, relying on reads is bad as it gives room to the other player to outplay you. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I may ask him as well.
I can't recall what you have said on the subject. It seems to me like reads are helpful and/or necessary in some situations (ex. here:
https://youtu.be/RpDZTARVuSU?t=103 where you bait Armada into going for ledge) where you can't cover every option. Usually in situations where they have multiple outs, I'll try to cover most of them or the one that would put me in the worst position afterwards (ex. if they are high firefoxing, usually I will move to cover the top platform and leave the ledge, unless they have already shown they will go for the ledge very frequently in the past.)
I still get kind of confused to how reads should be used in the neutral game, if at all. Like wavedash fsmash and run up raw grab is usually a read, and I linked those grabs in the past. And the potential you can get from them is often worth going for. Is there some ideal situation in neutral where certain moves and grabs are ideal? How much do mixups or reads come into play in the neutral, and how much should they? Is it about risk/reward/unpredictability/demonstrating your willingness to do this?
Often Mango mentions reads in his videos (like here:
https://youtu.be/uKFr0d4iFYE?t=64 ) and from what I've heard Druggedfox and you say about him, he tries to hit back harder and mixup the way he's attacking to make it harder to defend against. It was only when Crimson Blur mentioned he was adding much more 'iterations to his dash dance' vs Wizzy at WTFox that I actually, really noticed how much he was changing the way and timing he was attacking with (
https://youtu.be/XBBmYy2DpEo?t=816 ).
I played Ryan Ford somewhat recently and kept getting bodied by the way he approached me, it felt like the only grabs I ever got on him were when I ran up and raw grabbed while he was dash dancing, which is kind of a half read/desperation to me. And a lot of the grabs you get on Leffen are from undershooting dtilt which can be a bait even if it's not intended to be, and you don't often protect yourself with double fair like I try to in efforts to be safer. Does this neutral game prowess come with practice, or analysis/understanding? More one than the other? After a certain point, is it less about being tighter than the other player and more about mixing it up better and being unpredictable in when you're going to attack and when you won't?
I think I play pretty reactionary vs spacies and don't assert myself often. I remember Umbreon said "wait until they hang themselves works against most players". I'll have to reread what he posted about the neutral game.
I thought this question would be shorter.
Hope I explained my thought process clearly enough. I've asked similar questions in the past and I remember you saying that your grab here was "too early" (
https://youtu.be/g8v_NgYou3k?t=462 ) but it seems to me like had he dashed forward instead of backwards, he would've been grabbed.