https://docs.google.com/document/d/1lBtfk_kkw2433s37i7UNzaSryoihU_QV_fOvf8qgZys/edit
Dunno if you guys saw this from reddit sometime earlier, but I finally gave this a deep read. I'd say reading this was worth it, though I have some questions in mind. Please correct any misunderstanding I have with this.
Llod brings up whiff punish and prediction confirmation (I'll call PC) as two different meanings, with whiff punish as being reactable to all possible options right outside the range and PC as priming to punish some specific moves accordingly. PC doesn't necessarily have to be all zoning I believe, as say in the Marth mirror, you predict the Marth dashing back so you just DA. He states that because the first layer of the neutral game is just pure randomness, PC and whiff punishing tends to beat that first, basic level of neutral game. Where exactly does feinting and TR fall into this sort of spectrum?
Then, he brings up what tends to beat whiff punish/PC are mixups (defined as pure RPS as you cannot react to said option), which is the "5th layer" of the neutral game noted in the guide that occurs at the top level of Melee. I'm particularly fascinated when he brings up an example:
"If my opponent (Marth) thinks that I (Peach) will dash attack right into Marth’s face, then he might dash back (the non-committal option) to Prediction-Confirmation. However, to force a Mixup, I decide to keep running towards him, to the point where he would no longer be able to react to my dash attack. Now, we’ve entered a Mixup situation, because we both need to pick an option that which the other cannot react. I can do an overextended dash attack to try to catch his dash back, or an overextended grab to catch his shield. Or (and here’s where things get real fun), I can pick a non-committal non-reactable Mixup option myself, such as wavedashing in place or pulling a turnip. This non-committal non-reactable Mixup option is the reason why Mixups > Prediction-Confirmation Whiff Punish spectrum. If we both commit to a non-committal option, guess who has stage control. ME! From this point on, the next neutral interaction will be in my favor, as by gaining stage control, I’ve increased the number of options that I can pick, and decreased the number of options that my opponent can pick."
This really makes me think about the endless possibilities that can occur once both players are aware of PC/Whiff punishing. It makes me realize that smart plays, defensive or offensive, forces many mixups. At what point do you want to commit? Is overshooting a mixup, or moreso a PC. Are baits technically a mixup?
I've also noticed that one of my struggles in the Sheik mu is that if they don't want to commit to DA/Boost Grab, I struggle because I just play the PC game too long. Once they catch on, they just stay in range of DA and threaten moves like AC fair or something to slowly choke away my options and leaving me feel completely controlled. They're forcing me a mixup whether I should dash back more or go out there and fair/f-smash. And there's no end to the potential possibilities once it gets to that level. Is top Melee really about understanding such mixup options, and using tools here and there to help predict what kind of mixups they will be going for?
This also reminds me when I got eliminated at 7th in my OC Arcadian. I lost to this Fox player because I did not fully understand the mixups when he feinted SH nair but opted to double jump towards platforms instead. However when I went to FD, it seems like I knew all the mixups in mind with no platforms to interfere. I knew that no Foxes ever want to get grabbed at low percent, so I predicted that Fox will likely either backdash, jump, or spotdodge. Based from our last game, he liked back dashing and jumping a lot, so I just went in and overshoot f-smashed which caught his back dash. Because I conditioned him to shield from my f-smash, the next time I dashed forward he shielded, in which I mixed up with grab. I almost managed to 4-stock him there. Looking back, I think one mixup he lacked was full hopping (maybe my mind is playing tricks on me, but I don't think f-smash covers the apex of FH), which I'm guessing he didn't feel safe to do without platforms. I think I can probably beat FH by dashing under the FH or catch it by uair/fair or simply taking center. Unfortunately on other stages, he took advantage of platforms and double jumping in which my f-smash has less effectiveness and just simply knew less mixups, so he solidly won over me. Are mu ratios determined by how favorable the mixups are in various positions and the amount of reward the character gets from winning said mixups?
There's so much in the game I never realized, and I'm excited with how much more I can discover here in melee. Would you say that you followed a similar "Golden Pathway" in your journey towards the top?