Bioware Mafia (ovah)

[mentosman8]

Day 4 begins!

The town was humbled by their failure the prior day, but they also seemed to think it was their best option. They awoke the next day planning to continue their efforts when they heard a scream. They rushed to the source, and saw what had caused it: GorditoBoy69(Bastila, Town Doctor) lay on the ground slaughtered.

Shortly thereafter, they noticed another was missing from their ranks. After doing a quick headcount, they figured out who it was and went on a search. Finally, they found the body of Overswarm(Duncan, Town Mason Recruiter) was down, a broken chalice that had once been filled with some mysterious liquid beside him.

Day 4 begins! With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

A deadline has been set for Thursday, October 21st at 11:59 PM CST

 

[Evil Eye]

I just keep staring at this flabbergasted, trying to understand what the **** just went down.

Tando, I hope you made your **** count.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

So I'm dead. S***.

Go town.

 

[Tandora]

I investigated EP. He came back innocent.

I think the good news is this proves we do not have a roleblocker because I wouldn't have gotten any info. But don't expect me to be alive Tomorrow. Does this prove two antitown roles now?

As far as I am concerned, it's Gheb, Soviet Coffee, and Mad Scummy at this point.

 

[Evil Eye]

Okay, after taking some time to calm down at losing the worst possible pair of people, I see scant few possibilities:

1) As a mason recruiter, OS targeted an antitown party, and under this game design, this resulted in his death. This is a possibility; I know mentos plays/has played a lot of Epic Mafia, and under EM rules, a mason leader will die upon his recruiting attempt. I believe this is also often the case in forum mafia.

The question here would be simply this: Why didn't OS say whom he was going to target? Well, maybe he did. He's specifically said, after all, that his "breadcrumbs have been deliberate". Maybe he breadcrumbed whom he was going after. I can't see him leaving it completely up in the air like that.

2) The worst vigilante shot I've ever seen in my entire life. OS was supposed to **** well live on to toDay. Gordito was... slightly more passable, I guess, since a recruiter for the mafia was in play on N1, the same night Tando investigated him. But still very, very unlikely scum.

3) SK. Makes a hell of a lot more sense, I guess. Take a protown shot, then the patented surprise kill. Why now, though? Surely they predicted that, this close to endgame, a mass claim was on the horizon? Why jeopardize a mostly-safe claim? Are they trying to even the numbers out, stretch out the infighting? Possible.

 

[Evil Eye]

Tando, why was EP your pick on N3? Who else were you considering, and what leveraged him over the others?

 

[EdreesesPieces]

In addition to those 2 deaths, someone shot me last night. It didn't kill me though and I know why, but not sure if I should reveal the reason why. I trust RonEEke and Tandora because now I know Tand's a sane cop for sure, so I will ask you 2 - should I reveal why I survived the kill attempt or should I keep mafia in the dark?

the reason i revealed it was so you guys know there is one additional killer out there.

 

[Evil Eye]

Well, we don't know that for sure, not if OS misfired a mason recruit. If that's the case we still have two killers, in all likelihood.

Honestly, if the reason you survived is that you're a bulletproof, that's pretty obvious. Occam's Razor and all that. If it's something more complex, then use your best judgment. If knowing could help town, reveal it. If not knowing hurts scum more than town, don't reveal it.

With that revelation I think it's most likely that OS misfired a recruit attempt, and that that is why he talked so loudly about leaving breadcrumbs in such an on purpose manner. As such I feel that's our most productive lead toDay. It's nice to have Ed mostly-cleared, because a ton of **** was bothering me on a reread about him. But I guess I'll just nom on my hat sandwich and continue on scheming up a town win gnomesayin.


Positive things about last night:

-Semi-confirmed a misfired recruiting from OS, gives us a very good lead.
-Mostly-cleared EP, this'll be a big help for me and I'm sure others.
-Gordo is dead, helps give Tando's sanity some credibility and also removes any later WIFOM about him being simultaneously recruited on N1.


EP's revelation makes me confident that Gordito was the kill last night. It's a nice, safe kill -- the weakest of the Tandora Trio of semi-clears, but also someone being taken for protown with almost everything he said. This makes me equally confident in playing follow the cop with OS from beyond the grave.

 

[Evil Eye]

Anyone voteblocked toDay?

 

[EdreesesPieces]

Might as well keep it hush for now. I may reveal it as the day goes if its apparant it will help town in any way to know.

Anyway I agree that scum is hiding in Mad Scummy, Soviet or Gheb right now....right now I feel like its most likely Mad Scummy, I don't really like what did with the 2 members of the hydra voting and unvoting chibo over an over again. Like I said yesterDay seems like an attempt to prevent analysis of his stance on chibo. Why didn't you guys control your vote more unformly, Swiss and X1?

Gonna re read OS's posts over tonight and post tomorrow to see if I find anything, at anyone he possibly attempted to recruit.

 

[Mad Scummy]

Man do you have any idea how infuriating it is to have X1 telling me Chibo is def. scum when I ****ing KNEW that guy was town?

We got voteblocked, fantastic play blocker.

/re-reading OS' posts

 

[Soviet Coffee]

How many scum do we believe is left at this point? Two at most? One considered?

I guess adum was right about OS, we argued a lot about him but his thoughts on him from early day 1 were right.

I think I know what EP is hinting about.

 

[Mad Scummy]

Went back to page 24 or something. Only OS crumbing I see is talking about how Tan maty not really be cop.

(Wait for my scum move)

We have no verification that Tan is the cop. I do not have a scum case on her (will re-read her inabit) to give a stance more solid than these guys

Why are scum limited to myself, SC and Gheb?

This is how town accidentally won (BAD EXAMPLE I KNOW) Oddworld, they limited their choices mad fast through incorrect (but winning) logic.

God that looks bad.

And in case you hadn't noticed from other threads, X1 and I are working in unison again and best buddies <3

 

[Mad Scummy]

How many scum do we believe is left at this point? Two at most? One considered?

I guess adum was right about OS, we argued a lot about him but his thoughts on him from early day 1 were right.

I think I know what EP is hinting about.

2 or 1 & 1 indie, surely.

Either way two anti townies.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

With that revelation I think it's most likely that OS misfired a recruit attempt, and that that is why he talked so loudly about leaving breadcrumbs in such an on purpose manner.

Now that you mention it, I remember him asking people a lot about "holding hands" with him over the course of the game.

Man do you have any idea how infuriating it is to have X1 telling me Chibo is def. scum when I ****ing KNEW that guy was town?

Vote Mad Scummy

 

[Swiss]

Not like I've been saying it from D1, is it, Gheb?

Oh, right. Yeah. I have.

 

[Evil Eye]

Man what the ****. Unvote, Gheb.

@Mad Scummy vote for somebody. Might as well vote for someone you think is scum but I just want to verify that you're blocked.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Are you serious, Swiss? Do you think it has any bearing on your alignment if you were against his lynch since D1? It's not like it's terribly hard for a scumbag to support a townie who's likely to get lynched over the course of the game and then act like you "knew" he was town.

The way you try to take credit for it is scummy beyond words.

Unvote for now but don't expect me to vote somebody else.

 

[Swiss]

No Gheb..I just said that's why I was getting pissed at X1, not that I deserved any town points for saying Chibo was town :| Go ahead and quote me fishing for pro town points if you want, then you can lynch me.

Am I allowed to vote, even if it won't count? Ain't riskin' a modkill.

 

[Evil Eye]

@Gheb, Soviet, Nix: How do you feel about Tandora now? About her claim? About her clears?

@Ed: Why do you clear Tandora? Answer in as full elaboration as possible, but answer after the above three. I guess you can answer before Nix though since I'm sure he'll just wait and prod-dodge.

@Tando: Gimme some talkin' asap girl

 

[Evil Eye]

Yes you can vote Swiss how the hell did you not know that. Soviet Coffee did it yesterDay.

 

[Swiss]

It's early and I'm trying to cook lunch >_<

Vote Mad Scummy

Hammer amirite?

 

[Soviet Coffee]

@Gheb, Soviet, Nix: How do you feel about Tandora now? About her claim? About her clears?

Worse than I did previously.
I'm waiting for her to reveal who she investigated.

 

[Soviet Coffee]

Worse than I did previously.
I'm waiting for her to reveal who she investigated.

She investigated EP, my opinions on her are unchanged.


That said, we're only left with niave atm.



Shaya, get on aim, now.

 

[Soviet Coffee]

Err I meant why she investigated EP.

 

[Nix2100]

Ugh -_- refreshed the page by accident, having to retype what I said = Fail.

@Evil - Don't be mean, I don't intentionally prod dodge I missed my midterms when i was in the hospital so the teachers are being a bit harsh on me at the moment.

Anyway, I see two possibilities. Based on what has occured in previous nights, I am fairly sure there are just scum and a SK. I can assume Gordito got lucky N1 and protected someone which would explain just the one kill and 2 kills the other nights (with the exception of last nights "3" kills). Tandora cleared Gordito, EE and then EP which seems to match with everything.

There is a possibility however that Tan got converted and her and the "armor" EP are scum and they killed OS last night......That or they are telling the truth and OS mis-recruited.....but if scum knew there was a doctor out and a about I can see them still trying to kill him instead of the 2 investigation roles so I am leaning towards OS mis-firing....That being said.

@Gheb - Your right, he did mention holding hands with one person that I could find, you!

vote: Gheb

 

[Soviet Coffee]

The last NKs STRONGLY suggest SK, and since the voteblocker didn't withhold the voteblock, I'm thinking it's a scum voteblocker, potentially the SK.


So probably two scum left, each with a NK.


I need time to think on this.

 

[Overswarm]

Journal Entry, October 11th, 9:00 a.m.

Good luck town.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

@Gheb, Soviet, Nix: How do you feel about Tandora now? About her claim? About her clears?

1.) I think she is town just as much as I previously thought
2.) She is a sane cop - at this point another cop is too unlikely and she's the only investigator we had.
3.) I think her clears are legit mainly because they match with my reads on these players. There still a slight chance that she's recruited and my read on EP is neutral so I'd say I trust you more than EP based on the timing of the claims and my reads

 

[Evil Eye]

The last NKs STRONGLY suggest SK, and since the voteblocker didn't withhold the voteblock, I'm thinking it's a scum voteblocker, potentially the SK.

Bluh? Explain this, because we've mostly accepted the notion that OS misfired a recruiting attempt, and Gordo was one of the most obvious scum nightkill picks.

@Nix: I actually forgot about you being in the hospital, but you can't say you haven't been coasting before that. My bad though. Nice to see a substantial post from you, though.

OS did in fact say that he wanted to hold hands with Gheb, and if not, "he'd have to die toMorrow". Some things are giving me trouble there, though. I'm fairly certain a misfired recruit would kill OS, having it simply "not work" would effectively turn him into Cop #2, and kind of a broken role at that.

 

[Evil Eye]

Wait, adum is suggesting we've got an SK that can also voteblock?

what in the unholy mother of ****

 

[Evil Eye]

Tando we still need your rationale behind your investigation. And as many thoughts as you can possibly offer.

 

[Soviet Coffee]

EE, you were considered probably the most pro-town player yesterday and you told the voteblocker to not voteblock, nobody suggested he should.

Given 2 days with 2 kills in a row, it seems like too much of a coincidence, given that the pattern definately isn't vig-like SK becomes the most likely option.


Unless the recruited player maintained his powers and was originally a town voteblocker, I don't see how we'd be looking at a mafia vote-blocker as the recruited player.


So, voteblocking SK to balance the role's natural weaknesses seems like the most likely option, though it doesn't matter much IMO, the bottom line is we're probably looking at 2 remaining scum or different factions, one of which is a voteblocker.



Out of the stronger players of the game, thoughts? With 7 players, 2 of which are scum and 2 kills per night, we're getting mad close to mylo/lylo, especially with a scum voteblocker.

 

[EdreesesPieces]

@Gheb, Soviet, Nix: How do you feel about Tandora now? About her claim? About her clears?

@Ed: Why do you clear Tandora? Answer in as full elaboration as possible, but answer after the above three. I guess you can answer before Nix though since I'm sure he'll just wait and prod-dodge.

@Tando: Gimme some talkin' asap girl

As I did before, I have always had a town read on Tandora. However in addition before I said to keep in mind that possibility she was recruited, now from a personal point of view I feel for a fact this isnt the case, from two results.

1) Gordito flipping town
2) Her investigating and clearing me

I know that's not exactly persuasive to convince others, for to me she's clear since I know I'm town and she's cleared me. Her play's been nothing but helpful to town though, as was discussed all through yesterday. This to me just removes that small possibility that I kept talking about yesterDay.

By the way, I was specifically told that the NK attempt on me was a shot, just FYI guys. don't know if that helps but it could down the line.

 

[Evil Eye]

Adum: We could just as easily have a mafia voteblocker AND a recruited player, or a mafia voteblocker only with no recruited player AND a vanilla SK, or a mafia voteblocker AND a vanilla indy, or etc etc etc. Your SK theories do nothing to resolve Ed's mention of a third almost-death, unless you think he's lying. On the contrary, they make it even more convoluted.

 

[EdreesesPieces]

Also, since we have a little time before deadline, I"d like to request for everyone to post what game they are from again. I'll explain why if I can get some people to cooperate.

Tandora did you ever explain why you wanted us to do this?

I think everyone needs to read post #999 by overswarm. Now that he flipped town I can trust this line of reasoning:

Journal Entry, October 6th, 8:31 a.m.

Swiss asked me to investigate someone that was cleared by a cop investigation.

WTF? Why would I not just investigate the cop if I was going to do that?


This is agonizingly simple.

We have a list of about 5 players that are, more or less, unknown.

The OTHER players in the game can and will be confirmed by future actions.

If tandora = scum

She obviously won't be NKilled. Unless there's a SK, which will be like "****in' easy target" and do our work for us.

This means we have a claimed cop living for multiple days. HMMMMMMMM.

Can scum use this as wifom? No. The math doesn't work out. We end up having enough cleared people to where Tandora can't possibly be scum.

If Tandora = town

Scum will NKill her, clearing Roneeke and GorditoBoy completely.

It is entirely possible that Tandora is scum with a cop safe claim and there is no actual cop in this game. I have not forgotten this. I do know, however, that if she did that that she jumped the gun and mathematically that won't work out for her.

Vig? Kill Tandora right before lylo. We will then have a game that is already won with no wifom. We probably won't get to lylo at all.


tl;dr

anyone suggesting we investigate anyone cleared by Tandora = not paying attention and/or scum

anyone suggesting we kill Tandora = not paying attention and/or scum

anyone suggesting we investigate Tandora = not paying attention to the ramifications of me investigating the #1 scum NKill pick of the day, them dying, and me getting no results, resulting in me getting lynched, and then we have 0 investigations which would be duuuuuuuuumb


The plays toDay, by process of elimination:

EPieces
Chibo
Swiss
Adumb
Gheb
Nix

For srs.

Now that I think about it, we should have ended the day immediately after Nix went to the hospital so we could see if there was no NKill, haha


The play toDay is probably gonna be Edrees or Chibo. Edrees is smelling exactly like he does in an anti-town role, and he has been constantly playing it uber safe. That's fine early game, but when it gets to mid-game and you're still doing it, you're playing survival mode instead of a team game. Survival mode = no good.


The worst case scenario is Tandora and RonEEke are scum. (no indie)

With 10 people left?

That'll lead to 3 Day/Night phases assuming no Vig activity (2 lynch / 3 NKill, one day being a "no lynch" to put it at 5 players remaining.).

That'll leave Tandora, RonEEke, and 3 others. That's a long way away, and it'll be easy to spot. Everything else is wifom-free if we just act logically.

Was OS purposely trying to target scum with his ability or was he trying to target town? His posts about wanting to hold hands with people makes it seem like he wanted to target a townie, be their mason partner and go through the game that way (was eyeing Praxis and Dr Riddler and then later Gheb for this) If he tried to target scum though I think OS targeted Swiss. At least it's the best I can read from trying to read OS's breadcrumbs in post #999 and others -

Basically if you look at OS's scum list (see above post), and remove Chibo since he was lynched, if he tried to target scum with his ability he would go for me or Mad Scummy. If you trust Tandora to be town then you believe her investigation on me, plus OS probably figured I'd be the play for today. Swiss was then the highest on OS's list after you consider all this.

This means OS, if he was purposely targeting scum, probably picked Swiss. If he was purposely targeting town I think he would go for Gheb. I'm still trying to think and figure out which he decided on.

 

[EdreesesPieces]

Sorry, when I said swiss i meant Mad scummy. same deal you know

 

[Evil Eye]

I think OS would leave us something a hell of a lot more definitive than a list of every non-clear player in the game, if he crumbed his investigation. Most of what you just said is speculative at best.

Do want Tandora to mention that, though.

 

[Soviet Coffee]

EE, lets focus this.


What I wanna confirm is that there's 2 remaining scum of different factions as the most likely situation, that's what I want your thoughts on. I have a reason for this, but I don't wanna explain why until I'm reasonably sure of this setup cause last thing I wanna do is give scum an out.

 

[Evil Eye]

Well, what do you want from me? The voteblocker voteblocking is null, for me. I can see any allignment there. And I feel I've shown that under any kind of wide lens, your rationale that we probably have an SK and that it's probably the voteblocker implodes.

I feel that we have one scum and one recruit, or one scum and one indy. Scum/recruit + indy is a distant third possibility that I don't consider very likely at all. Those are the only things that I think we can take for granted as possible.