Here's my theory. The supposed Banjo reveal and Joker release was set to happen in March to coincide with the Loot-crate item. This was probably planned before the DLC finalization and DLC was revealed. Joker's reveal may have put a wrench in that plan, and Atlus' insistence to hold Joker's full reveal until they reveal news about P5S caused the schedule to be delayed. Im certain that Sakurai promised a more content filled reveal for the 2nd pack. Call it a hunch but I feel like development on Joker was finished and set for the March release, but held off due to Atlus. This might also explain how the Best Buy leak happened. Since the next reveal will feature more content, I suspect that Joker being finished in March freed up resources to work on Pack 2.
Poke holes in it if you wish, this is just how I see these bizarre events. The Loot Crate debacle just looks way to weird to be a coincidence. If PolarPanda feels quite confident about Rare Replay and says "You'll all really love what Nintendo has in store for next month." then it's possible this stuff will be dropping soon.
I think you’re giving Atlus way too much credit. You’re saying that Atlus now has the power to influence Nintendo
and Microsoft, two of the biggest gaming companies in the industry? Sounds far fetched at best to me. I get that the supposed Jane alt might warrant waiting til Atlus properly announces what she is...
But it’s not like Nintendo couldn’t figure out several solutions to that problem that don’t involve letting Atlus strong-arm them into waiting on those kinds of announcements. They could show off Joker plenty without commenting upon the Jane alt and just let that be announced at the time of reveal. Or if anything Joker is the issue, just announce a release date for him with a “tune-in later for gameplay” type announcement. It wouldn’t go super well in the community, but we’ve seen Nintendo makes us wait before. I just don’t think Atlus has that sort of power at all, they’re the guest who was invited, I’d think they have to play by Nintendo’s rules.
Also, I’m not entirely convinced that something as big as a Microsoft/Nintendo collaboration in Smash Bros wouldn’t be E3 material. There’s something in a Banjo return that could just potentially play so much better to that arena then in a regular Direct.
You got to remember that fan favorites wasn't the key part of the discussion at the time since the Smash Ballot wasn't announced until the same month Mewtwo came out. Ever since the Smash Ballot was first announced in April of 2015, fan favorites were on most peoples mind as a possibility.
While I agree that part of the issue with new speculation is that everybody thinks that they’re character is really coming this time and they want them now... that’s not really an excuse for the overwhelming impatience I see some people express. This accelerated hype cycle for Ultimate hasn’t helped matters either.
It’s just like people expect a character basically every couple of months now, and if it’s not someone they want, they expect another even sooner to make up for their disappointment.
Never mind a game with 76 playable characters just dropped in December, the first playable DLC character dropped at the beginning of February (a like two month wait time compared to Mewtwo who was five months...), Joker already announced and coming this month as confirmed by Nintendo, and he’s probably coming with all new completely free modes in a major update.
Yeah, I’m really excited to see more about Joker and those modes, and yeah, I’m obviously curious as to what’s next in the Fighters Pass. But they’ve done enough already to where we don’t need everything about it announced immediately. We’re on a solid enough drip of content and again, Joker was obviously announced too early for his own good, so it’s just going to take time and patience.