At this point, pretty much every character is as unlikely as the next

[NintenRob]

There's no pattern, there's no rhyme or reason. We went from Min Min to Steve to Sephiroth and yet Smash speculation still circles around the same names, Hayabusa, Crash, Dante ect. But honestly at this point I'd put them as all as likely as your Madeline, Amaterasu, Freddy Faz Bear, Bandana Waddle Dee, Isaac (both Binding and Golden Sun) and Master Chief.

Now obviously there are exceptions, obviously someone like Chunky Kong is not more likely than Dixie. But I'd say getting a new DK character is as likely as getting a Nier character. As in its all unlikely. We know 3 of them will happen, but honestly beyond that its anyone guess

Honestly at this point the only thing that will really sway my opinion on something is how prevalent they are in Japan. But who knows if that will be a thing forever. Western franchises are slowly starting to get more and more recognition.

For all we know we might get Carmen Sandiego. We might get Puyo Puyo, heck we might even get Resident Evil despite the Spirit Event, we might get Crono despite already getting a Square character. Who are you to say we won't?


Your favourite character is unlikely, but so is your best friends most friends most wanted character. But there is a chance. There's also probably a chance that the character you dismissed because their an assist trophy, Mii Costume, Spirit Event or just "not fitting" might happen as well. But its unlikely, because everything is Unlikely.

 

[RetrogamerMax]

I think it does make sense to look at certain characters' chances if they have something in the game that goes in their favor. But most people will stick to who the community thinks is likely no matter what. But I agree with you, we don't know jack****.

 

[Greyfox22]

Can't really agree with this. Personally, I think there are a lot of distinct patterns between all the waves of dlc (Smash 4 and Ultimate) we've gotten so far. Every dlc inclusion so far has been purposeful for one reason or another whether that be fan demand, promoting certain franchises, appealing to people outside of the usual Nintendo fanbase etc. As erratic as some inclusions may seem at first glance, especially to a fanbase that tends to hyperfocus on a few specific characters, all the characters have been chosen with a reason, and the challenger packs aren't thrown together with random character choices.

I will agree though that people tend to overestimate the likelihood of certain characters like Dante and Crash, and I think that's mostly due to the broad support of those characters over social media which inflates their chances to be in Smash in people's minds.

 

[Golden Icarus]

Personally, I think there are a lot of distinct patterns between all the waves of dlc (Smash 4 and Ultimate) we've gotten so far. Every dlc inclusion so far has been purposeful for one reason or another whether that be fan demand, promoting certain franchises, appealing to people outside of the usual Nintendo fanbase etc. As erratic as some inclusions may seem at first glance, especially to a fanbase that tends to hyperfocus on a few specific characters, all the characters have been chosen with a reason, and the challenger packs aren't thrown together with random character choices.

I think that’s his point. Because you could really say one or more of those things for any character. Maybe Sora will get in purely out of fan demand. Maybe Amaterasu will be added to promote Okami HD. Maybe Freddy Fazbear will get in to promote a FNAF sequel coming out on the Switch. Maybe CJ from San Andreas gets in to reach out to a broader audience. Perhaps Groose will get in because Sakurai just likes the character. Most characters have some reason to be added. A couple of merits are all a character needs to have a chance (so long as they originated in a video game).

I’m sure most people would’ve agreed that a Tales character was more likely than a Persona character, or that we would see Heihachi before Terry Bogard. Heck, there was a time people thought that Geno had a better chance than Cloud ****ing Strife. And do I dare bring up Wii Fit Trainer and Piranha Plant?

Of course, certain characters have seemingly better odds than others. I’m definitely expecting to see Crash before Freddy Fazbear. And I’ve even stated that I’m willing to bet good money that Lloyd or Yuri are one of the remaining FP2 characters, despite the fact that there are only three slots left. The crazy thing is that people will still outright dismiss characters despite how often we’ve been taken by surprise.

In the end, I’ll keep betting on Crash and Lloyd, but I ain’t counting out Revali and Dig Dug.

 

[fogbadge]

i think toad and chibi are far more unlikely

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I feel like this is an extreme.

Yes, Smash fans often overlook characters and focus on stuff that ultimately leads to nothing. But some characters are more likely than others.

We're not completely stupid. We just often don't have all the puzzle pieces.

 

[fogbadge]

I feel like this is an extreme.

Yes, Smash fans often overlook characters and focus on stuff that ultimately leads to nothing. But some characters are more likely than others.

We're not completely stupid. We just often don't have all the puzzle pieces.

we never have all the puzzle pieces

 

[Lionfranky]

What about a third party company double dipping in the same pass? I don't think there is anything inherently wrong with making double deal as long as each candidate brings fresh, new contents. In fact, it makes negotiation easier. Nintendo could've wanted both Steve and Master Chief for all we know.

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

When everyone is likely, no one is.

-Syndrome, probably.

I think that’s his point. Because you could really say one or more of those things for any character. Maybe Sora will get in purely out of fan demand. Maybe Amaterasu will be added to promote Okami HD. Maybe Freddy Fazbear will get in to promote a FNAF sequel coming out on the Switch. Maybe CJ from San Andreas gets in to reach out to a broader audience. Perhaps Groose will get in because Sakurai just likes the character. Most characters have some reason to be added. A couple of merits are all a character needs to have a chance (so long as they originated in a video game).

I’m sure most people would’ve agreed that a Tales character was more likely than a Persona character, or that we would see Heihachi before Terry Bogard. Heck, there was a time people thought that Geno had a better chance than Cloud ****ing Strife. And do I dare bring up Wii Fit Trainer and Piranha Plant?

Of course, certain characters have seemingly better odds than others. I’m definitely expecting to see Crash before Freddy Fazbear. And I’ve even stated that I’m willing to bet good money that Lloyd or Yuri are one of the remaining FP2 characters, despite the fact that there are only three slots left. The crazy thing is that people will still outright dismiss characters despite how often we’ve been taken by surprise.

In the end, I’ll keep betting on Crash and Lloyd, but I ain’t counting out Revali and Dig Dug.

Oh man you hit me with that nostalgia of RTC (reminds me of how wee need a directory for each day rating because it's a ***** to have to swim in a over hundred thread just to find a specific post)

It's kind of funny seeing the Top Chance and Want now. Literally all top 4 on want are on Smash now (even Banjo) although seeing Dixie so high in Chance makes me want to shrivel up and cry.

 

[Diddy Kong]

I think a few characters are more likely than others. For example, Monster Hunter, and Crash Bandicoot. But outside of them? I have no strong feelings for certain characters being more or less likely than the other. There's just 3 left, and that will be the end of it. So yes, of course most characters are gonna feel less likely now than before ...

 

[Adrianette Bromide]

Technically speaking every character is either 100% likely or not at all since the selection process is and has been done for a whole year now.

 

[Perkilator]

Now obviously there are exceptions, obviously someone like Chunky Kong is not more likely than Dixie.

Of course not, he’s dead

In all seriousness, I agree with your statement wholeheartedly. We could get Cash Banooca, but then we could get Sakura Shinguji, or Chosen Undead, or a Gen 8 Pokémon despite that game’s Spirit Event.

Point is, if Sakurai and Nintendo think certain characters can work as a fighter, that’s how they pick one. They pick whoever they want as long as they can work as a fighter.

 

[RileyXY1]

I fully expect more curveballs going forward.

 

[BernkastelWitch]

It's pretty much a given the fanbase will ignore certain characters, regardless if they make sense or have strong gaming history if they simply don't know them or whatnot. Household names are usually pretty much seen as very likely with few exceptions.

For me I give everyone an equal shot. People already wrote off Steve and Sephiroth for varying reasons despite their names being big and they don't even glance at characters whose names aren't pretty much household names. Admittedly this makes it when the inevitable curveball happen, it'll be great to see their reactions.

Sakurai is a wild card. He may want someone like Crash, Dante, Ryu Hayabusa, or Phoenix Wright or he may want "Unlikely" characters the fanbase wrote off like KOS-MOS, Reimu, A Non-Ninja Gaiden Koei rep, Monokuma, etc etc etc. It's what Sakurai sees as valuable and good and it is hard to predict him sometimes.

 

[Greyfox22]

I think that’s his point. Because you could really say one or more of those things for any character. Maybe Sora will get in purely out of fan demand. Maybe Amaterasu will be added to promote Okami HD. Maybe Freddy Fazbear will get in to promote a FNAF sequel coming out on the Switch. Maybe CJ from San Andreas gets in to reach out to a broader audience. Perhaps Groose will get in because Sakurai just likes the character. Most characters have some reason to be added. A couple of merits are all a character needs to have a chance (so long as they originated in a video game).

I’m sure most people would’ve agreed that a Tales character was more likely than a Persona character, or that we would see Heihachi before Terry Bogard. Heck, there was a time people thought that Geno had a better chance than Cloud ****ing Strife. And do I dare bring up Wii Fit Trainer and Piranha Plant?

Of course, certain characters have seemingly better odds than others. I’m definitely expecting to see Crash before Freddy Fazbear. And I’ve even stated that I’m willing to bet good money that Lloyd or Yuri are one of the remaining FP2 characters, despite the fact that there are only three slots left. The crazy thing is that people will still outright dismiss characters despite how often we’ve been taken by surprise.

In the end, I’ll keep betting on Crash and Lloyd, but I ain’t counting out Revali and Dig Dug.

I guess my point is that Smash fans overestimate certain characters due to the bubble that Smash speculation creates and when a character who makes complete sense but just isn`t popular or well speculated with Smash fans makes it in, Smash fans are shocked. I can`t agree that every character is now just as likely just because some characters who Smash fans weren`t hyper fixated on made it into the game.

Maybe Smash fans should be more open to certain characters sure, but I don`t think every character has an equal shot at this point or that it`s impossible to tell which characters are coming.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

What's the point of this thread exactly? Like when you paint characters with a broad brush like that literally applies to every character, you're not really saying anything at all. It can't be used in any way for speculation, nor support of specific characters either. It's just a different way of saying "Anything is possible" too, so I just really don't quite get this sentiment. And to be frank, I kind of disagree with the sentiment entirely because I think it's fair to say a number of characters are less likely than others. Like I wouldn't really say another Mother character or say a Custom Robo character are likely because there's not a whole lot of reason to expect them and there's nothing going for them when Nintendo is choosing the DLC. And that's the thing, I think people can get away with this a bit more when talking Sakurai's picks as the primary decision maker for picking characters since he has an individual bias and therefore is more likely to go for an odd ball pick...

But when those characters are being selected by Nintendo at large, I think that's less relevant than ever because you're removing individual bias. Now, sure there's lot of reasons for Nintendo to add characters, so it can be harder to determine what is likely considering they have information we literally do not. But they're also not operating in entirely crazy ideas left and right. I mean, the smallest character of the DLC is a brand new IP Nintendo seems to intend to promote that also sold 2 million copies and was one of the Switch's earliest titles. They're a lot less likely as a company to just pick some random off the wall choice because... well, frankly, there's not a ton of benefit of those off the wall picks relative to other options. If Nintendo isn't using their own characters and there's also not any fan demand for them, that's probably going to speak to less of a willingness to include them in Smash if they even come up at all. Similarly, third parties that Nintendo works well with are probably more likely to get some room for discussion versus those Nintendo basically doesn't interact with at all.

 

[Golden Icarus]

Oh man you hit me with that nostalgia of RTC (reminds me of how wee need a directory for each day rating because it's a ***** to have to swim in a over hundred thread just to find a specific post)

It's kind of funny seeing the Top Chance and Want now. Literally all top 4 on want are on Smash now (even Banjo) although seeing Dixie so high in Chance makes me want to shrivel up and cry.

I love looking back at Smash 4 speculation. I'm impressed at how much we got wrong, and equally impressed with how much we got right.

And I feel you on Dixie Kong. Seeing Isaac rated so highly in chance hurts to see.