I think I have a counterpoint. Do you have time to spare? Because when I get invested in something, I write
walls. >_>
Wii U:
-First row is pretty clear cut. Main Mario characters, then secondary ones, then Metroid. Ridley's still very much up in the air, so if he doesn't make it, Captain Falcon could go up there instead. We know they've been willing to put characters in odd places before; in Brawl, G-Dub ended up in the far right column with the third party characters. K. Rool, though, may actually be pretty likely. More on that in a bit.
-Second row is mostly as expected: Zelda characters, Villager, Kid Icarus, then Kirby. Then it gets complicated, though. Oddball standouts Ness and the Chorus Men felt the best here...and it doesn't mean all the RPG characters'll be together this time just because Ness and Lucas were with the Fire Emblem characters in Brawl, more that both franchises had 2 reps and it was the best place to put them. There's still some room to maneuver, though. If we do get a third KI rep like you're suspecting, they could go next to Palutena, booting Ness or the Chorus Men to the fourth row and Captain Falcon elsewhere. If Isaac or Robin don't make it, he can go on the third after all.
-Here's the first major curveball. The Star Fox franchise was in the doldrums up until last week, and since the new game's in early development, it wouldn't have been a thing when the roster was being decided on. It wouldn't be a stretch to say it'd only have 2 reps this time around, with Wolf leaving and the more prominent Falco sticking around and getting some moveset tweaks to differentiate him even
more from Fox...and Fire Emblem, more popular than ever and on the heels of Awakening being a massive hit that the devs
would've been able to see as it released in Japan in April 2012, gets 4! It's not as much of a stretch as it looks at first, and I'll argue Robin's case below. Meanwhile, fellow RPG swordsmen Shulk and Isaac join them as they fit better here than anywhere else, followed by the Pokemon characters.
-Olimar begins the fourth row, which starts with several characters from single-rep franchises...although the Captain, Ness, and the Chorus Men could be used to plug in gaps somewhere. Following Little Mac and Miss Fit are the throwback characters. Call it a bit of a stretch, but I could maybe see one more throwback added in a roster of 51. If it'd be a chance to revive an old franchise like what Sakurai did with Pit, Takamaru--who got a minigame in Nintendo Land--may get the call. Mr. Game & Watch may get used as a stopgap somewhere, but this is a viable enough place for him. And then we have the third party characters, and the Mii Fighters in a visible spot at the very end.
3DS:
-First row is pretty predictable. Nothing fancy here.
-The second row is where it gets interesting. Secondary Mario characters and a couple single-rep franchises to plug the gap, since there's no possible way Zelda's likely 5 reps would fit. And things could get really awkward up there...that is, unless there were to be
a secondary Mario-verse newcomer.
-Zelda reps plus one in the third row. Admittedly, Olimar, Captain Falcon, and Ness are pretty interchangeable here. Maybe G-Dub could get called on to plug another gap like in Brawl, even.
-Metroid, Kid Icarus, and an extra. If Ridley is just a boss hazard, another solo rep could get added here...or maybe that third KI rep you're speculating on. If that rep
and Ridley are in, the Chorus Men get shunted further down. Maybe Ness could end up at the end of
this row instead, a tagalong to the next row.
-Putting nearly all the potential RPG heroes together works really well for the fourth row.
-Row 5 is a bit of a logjam when you consider Little Mac. But it's pretty plausible to have him on his own if Nintendo doesn't consider Little Mac to be a throwback any more. And after Punch-Out on the Wii, it could very well be the case.
-Almost all Pokemon in Row 6, plus the Villager, a solo rep who was next in the queue.
-Second last row, and the Wii Fit Trainer and the Mii Fighters (in a very easy-to-see location, again) flank the throwback characters. Maybe Miss Fit ends up next to the Miis instead. Hard to say just yet.
-And at the very bottom, of course, is the third party characters and the Random button. There's even room for a DLC button to show up!
Cut:
-
Squirtle,
Ivysaur: Basically gone now that Charizard is on his own, Red's gimmick no longer exists, and Greninja is around to take Squirtle's niche as a water-user.
-
Snake: If we've heard nothing still about him despite all the noise over Pac-Man, he's probably gone. Besides, wasn't there talk that Hideo Kojima wanted to "retire" the character after his Japanese VA passed away?
-
Lucas: According to Sal's source, one of the Mother kids is gone, and Lucas is more likely. They've been on the money about what they've revealed so far. Gematsu aside, if Lucas was mainly in to promote Mother 3, which came out--in Japan only--during Brawl's development, he'd be more likely to be seen as a one-off the way Roy was.
-
Wolf: The riskiest call here. But with Star Fox left to collect dust for 8 years, the drought not ending in time for the roster to be finalized, and his existence as a half-clone for a character who already had a half-clone? It's plausible.
(He
might show up later, though; keep reading.)
On the Bubble (In):
On the Bubble (Out):
-
Jigglypuff,
Mewtwo: This one was tough to call. Based on stories that make the rounds every now and then, Mewtwo was one of the Forbidden 7, planned at one point to be in Brawl but cut for time, while Jiggs might've been added on solely because she was easy to program. With a moveset based mostly on being round and floaty while every other Pokemon on the roster has numerous moves that fit its typing, Jigglypuff feels increasingly generic (and being part Normal doesn't justify it >_>).
However...
I've heard recently that Jiggs is really popular in Japan. As in, to them what Captain Falcon is to the West. If that's true, and the devs are as hesitant to make cuts as they were in Brawl...
My gut tells me Jigglypuff will get the nod, but
her moveset will be revamped to include more Fairy-type and sound-based moves. They've given Pit and Bowser overhauls, so it's not out of the question.
Even still, it's probably a coin toss between the two of them.
-
Ridley: Depends entirely on the nature of that glimpse of him in the Pyrosphere. In the next couple months, we might have him revealed to be an assist trophy or a boss hazard as the Internet explodes and Sakurai sits back with a trollface, or revealed to be playable all along...as the Internet explodes and Sakurai sits back with a trollface. >_>
-
King K. Rool,
Dixie Kong: Okay, so based on the 3DS version's second row, we know that with a 51 character roster, the odds favor a newcomer from a secondary Mario-verse game. Dixie was one of the Forbidden 7...but, she might feel too similar to Diddy, while K. Rool is one of
the most requested newcomers, has a lot of appearances to take moves from, could be a new villain character
and a new super-heavyweight, and since it's been almost 15 years since he's been in a main-series game, he'd even be a throwback character in a way.
It depends on whether the devs want to draw from Brawl's cut list or go with a more unique character. And the fact that Kremlings show up in Smash Run
could mean something...
-
Bandana Dee: This guy is no mere
mook. Ever since Kirby's Return to Dream Land, he's had increasing prominence. In Kirby Super Star Ultra, he was retconned into The Arena and given a prominent role in new mode Revenge of the King, as Dedede's right hand man and the sole spectator of his grudge match with Kirby. Kirby Triple Deluxe has him assist Kirby in a couple different ways...while Meta Knight himself doesn't even appear. Promotional materials show him right alongside Kirby, Meta Knight, and King Dedede, meaning the franchise itself has started treating Bandana Dee as its "fourth main character".
Plus, Smash has yet to have a spear-wielder. And if Sakurai had the chance to further promote a series he helped create...well, I could see him consider it. In fact...well, keep reading.
-
Takamaru,
Mach Rider: We could see another throwback character still (not a WTF one, though; Miss Fit and the Chorus Men already have
that covered), and Takamaru feels like the most likely to throw his katana (
Is that a katana?) into the ring. However...Sakurai has said he likes the Mach Rider before, and this might be his chance to act on it.
Or, considering Mega Man and Pac-Man's movesets draw a ton from the '80s, we might not see or
need another throwback character at all.
-
Ice Climbers,
R.O.B: After Lucas, Wolf, and Jiggs, many people have these two flagged as potential cuts. R.O.B. just kind of
feels like a one-off. Meanwhile, the Ice Climbers may not have a choice if the devs never found a way to get multiple Nana AIs to work at a time without overtaxing the 3DS' processor. We might get both, one, or neither.
-
Isaac: Another popular character, one with a magic bend to his swordplay, and the first to have a primary
earth affinity that'd help him stand out. He was an assist trophy in Brawl, but so was Little Mac, and unlike Mac, Isaac also got a music track. All we can do for him is wait.
-
Robin: With its newfound rise to prominence and its massive cast of characters, it isn't all that much of a stretch to say that 4 members of a possible roster of 51 could be from Fire Emblem. With Marth, Ike, and Chrom all being pure swordsmen, a fourth rep would need to feel different and unique...at least according to the thought process Sakurai talked about in an interview after Brawl's release.
Enter a character who fights with both weapons and magic in a game with few spellcasters, focuses on the tactical side of combat instead of being as straightforward as the other three, and comes from a
very well known game where he is just as much of a main character as Chrom...and arguably
more important in Fire Emblem Awakening's final few chapters...and you have a worthy addition to the roster.
And despite what he might look like at first, Robin is no mere self-insert. In fact, he isn't one at all, instead being a fully formed character that fully exists in-universe and has his own personality and ties to the other characters (which eventually becomes
very important to the plot), just one likely to match up to someone playing a strategy RPG where character death is permanent. Combine that with the fact that he has a default "canon" appearance and name, and he is no more of a stand in for the player than Link is...and less of one than the already-confirmed Villager.
Robin's alternate colors could even allude to how you can customize his appearance, changing not only the colors of his robes and armor but also his hairstyle, hair color, and even his face. And while I've been calling Robin "he" this whole, time, players can have their version of Robin be female...and since the Wii Fit Trainer and Villager have an alternate costume for the opposite gender, they could do the same in Smash.
And...there might be a hint toward Robin already being in. You know how every stage in the 3DS version only has two themes? Remember how in Melee, most of the "alternate" themes doubled as themes for secret characters? Well, Arena Ferox was in the demo, and one of its themes is called Id (Purpose), and in Awakening, it's one of several versions...of Robin's theme. Remember the trophy quizzes in the April direct? When the first of them was the Fire Emblem character Tiki, the theme they used for the segment was...Id (Purpose). They could've used a different theme from Awakening, they could've used a theme associated with Marth...but they went with Robin's theme. That
might count for something.
As you can see, I feel pretty strongly about this, but there are so many valid reasons and so few concerns that aren't addressed somehow that it means Robin is actually very viable. If the roster turns out to be only 47 strong and we get no more newcomers we don't already know about, he (or she) would be Fire Emblem's best choice to be a DLC character.
Which beings me to the next section.
DLC:According to Sal's source, DLC is on the table. All we can do so far is speculate what extent it'll be...but I wouldn't be surprised if there were some characters that didn't make the initial roster that some of the developers still want in, or a few that weren't relevant until after the roster was finalized.
So here's my guess on what they'll do. Two packs of DLC characters will be made, both with four new characters (there may also be stages, items, music, what have you, but this thread isn't about those). DLC characters would be placed together--a drop down menu on the Wii U version, and a button that creates a pop up box on the 3DS version. The first group would come out in the spring of next year, and the second group in the fall. Each character would be released in two week intervals until the entire pack is up for grabs.
So with that in mind:
DLC Group 1 (Spring 2015):
-
Bowser Jr.: Odds are, the first DLC character would be a Mario one, and the Koopa Kingdom's crown prince would fit the bill pretty well. His smaller stature compared to his dad and the option to build a moveset around wielding his paintbrush as a weapon would ensure he played differently from the rest of the cast.
-
Bandana Dee: I just can't see Sakurai passing him up. Not if there're upwards of 8 DLC spots. I'd be concerned about keeping his moveset from feeling stale since the Spear ability only has so many moves, but it wouldn't surprise me if they pulled from other abilities Kirby doesn't use. Some Parasol stuff, maybe?
-
Sceptile: If Pokemon X & Y were only far enough along when they decided on the roster than Greninja was still only concept art, there's
no way ORAS was a thing yet. But now Hoenn is finally confirmed and its starters relevant again, Ivysaur's departure leaves a niche for a character with nature powers, and Sceptile just got a shiny new mega form. In fact, I kind of wonder if Sceptile is one of the main reasons they're considering DLC in the first place.
-
Veteran Character: Most of the DLC spots will probably go to newcomers, but they might throw a bone to an old, forgotten friend. And what better way to end the group on a strong, media-buzz-generating note than with one of the characters from a previous Smash that didn't originally make the cut?
DLC Group 2 (Fall 2015):
-
Impa: Group 2 would need to start with something flashy, and with it likely being near the one year anniversary of Hyrule Warriors, why not a Zelda character? Impa's a recurring character in the legend, and her HW design and that massive sword could offer the really unique fighting style of a light, fast character with slower but powerful attacks.
(Or if the new Zelda is out by then, maybe a character from that one could take the spot.)
-
Fire Emblem Character: Okay, I might be a little biased. But with so many characters to pick from, and with Mario, Zelda, Kirby, and Pokemon all getting DLC already, why not? Would Roy make his return here, with a new moveset to somehow set him apart from the other swordsmen and make up for how terrible he was in his own game? Could we see a different character here, like the light-magic-wielding Micaiah? Hector?
Anna? There's a lot to pick from.
-
Star Fox Character: We're talking October here, enough time for the new, recently-announced Star Fox game to be released. This spot could go to a prominent character in the game other than Fox or Falco. Preliminary guesses would be Wolf or Krystal...and to be honest, I'd prefer the latter. Another female character, possibly another staff-wielder and magic user in a game with too few of them as is, potentially our first
fast magic user, or maybe even a really awesome blend of magic and technology...
(If the new game comes out earlier, this spot and the previous one would switch.)
-
Unexpected Character: How do you finish off with a bang? Bring in someone
no one sees coming. Could a solo rep go here? A throwback character that didn't make it originally? Maybe a third party character they couldn't get the rights to at first? Or...wouldn't it be something if all of those wishes were granted, and the final DLC character was none other than Geno?
Heh. Nothing wrong with speculating, right?
And there you have it. A full roster and three thousand words' worth of analysis. How close to the mark will it be? We'll have to wait and find out.
Erimir I think either Squirtle and Ivysaur will return, or Mewtwo will. Probably not both.
).
