I was working on this today.
Went to Bowser, Donkey Kong, and Robin Discord servers (ROB server does not have a chart for their down throw to up-air which lead me to conclude it was never a true confirm to begin with). I got their charts, asked questions, and did the math. The lists I created below shows the percent ranges where the characters throw to up-air confirms work on the "super" heavies with a list for Lucas at the end the of the other lists; but first comes the details.
I subtracted the minimum and max values for the heavy characters and included Monado Shield Shulk too (due to many people calling him heavy since this Art changes a lot of stats; what is relevant here is the knockback reduction, along with his lower mobility stats). These values also include rage barring Robin's chart since rage was not in there.
A member of Robin server said this for rage today when I asked the question "Does rage play a factor in checkmate?":
Meanwhile on the Donkey Kong's Chart they have this table located at the top of the picture:
I put these two here since I was not able to get the exact answer in regards to how rage affects kill percent for Robin. Which is my reasoning for why I left out rage in the Robin section below. I could make an attempt to add it in with two sets of parenthesis, one for Robin Discord, the other for the Donkey Kong Discord but chose not to because I think it would make the chart messy and my overall point harder to grasp.
Here is the aforementioned chart.
DK's kill throw chart: a.k.a ACUT (Aerial Cargo Up Throw) Up-air a.k.a the current Ding Ding (I was informed that this method is now the standard)
Bowser - 13
Donkey Kong - 26
King Dedede - 31
Charizard - 15
Ganondorf - 29
Shulk (Monado Shield) - 43
Robin's Checkmate chart: (There were no rage values on chart)
Bowser - Not a true confirm
Donkey Kong - 21
King Dedede - 11
Charizard - Not a true confirm
Ganondorf - 12
Shulk (Monado Shield) - 19
Bowser's kill throw Chart:
Bowser - 24
Donkey Kong - 35
King Dedede - 34
Charizard - 25
Ganondorf - 36
Shulk (Monado Shield) - 42
Lucas kill throw chart (IT HAS SEVEN NAMES AND COUNTING!!!!):
Bowser - 65
Donkey Kong - 78
King Dedede - 85
Charizard - 61
Ganondorf - 69
Shulk (Monado Shield) - 139
In regards to Lucas landing the Up-air, he has more than enough time to land it. It's very generous. He has time to think about it before he even wants to connect it.
I'm not sure how I can put it words well, but his down throw puts the opponent in a lot of hitstun. Add on to that, Lucas is capable of canceling his down throw animation early. Then there is the fact that Lucas players generally teach each other to always short/full hop forward after the down throw. This alleviates the issue of worrying about DI mixups, since Lucas can then burn his double jump forward, backwards, or straight up and still land the up-air.
Actually this video explains it way easier than I can, probably better too.
Link:
If intentional or by mere coincidence, Lucas hits the opponent with the back hitbox of the up-air, it can turn the opponent's DI against them. This will change the angle that they will be launched at. Think of the Beefy Smash Dood's, Shiek 50/50 up-air cross-up.
-
When you first brought up Lucas in this thread I assumed that you read this post (
https://smashboards.com/threads/huge-and-long-lucas-post-of-information.452375/) because you did some to digging to quote a Lucas post from pages after the conversation was over at that time. In it, I cover how Lucas is able to land grabs. If you think of Lucas trying to land grabs in a similar vein that Nairo zips around the stage to land dash grabs as Zero Suit Samus then yeah, landing grabs as Lucas are going to seem nigh impossible (exaggeration; read as hard or difficult) to land. Lucas can still land grabs if an opponent runs at him and the grab hitbox is active (this includes dash attacks and unsafe dash attacks on shield).
In the next link, I go into more detail on a couple of ways Lucas can land a grab starting from paragraph three, and ending at paragraph seven.
Link:
https://smashboards.com/threads/4br...nsight-analysis.445990/page-102#post-21769140
Edit 1: Added a sentence under the video.
-
Edit 2: In a sense, this is part 2 to me of the Duck Hunt post I made earlier.
Thinking back to these two posts of yours (
https://smashboards.com/threads/4br...insight-analysis.452108/page-34#post-21899509) (
https://smashboards.com/threads/4br...insight-analysis.452108/page-41#post-21905161) and the responses they got, had me wonder if Greninja Saga was viewed under the same lens.
I recall players talking about it before the event happened, and even after the event, that Greninja Saga was going to be the defining moment of Greninja, where all the talented Greninja players got together from around the globe to showcase their skill.
...
...
Then they were elimated in the bracket and some even had to eliminate each other. Some Greninja players evnen got unfavorable placings in the results. This Saga, while it had good intentions, also to me, helped or hurt cement players, critic and fans alike, thoughts of Greninja in competitive play. I have seen some players cite Greninja Saga as their time to shine and they blew it.
I think this is kind-of flawed too, but Greninja was made the spectacle of the event so all eyes would be on him. Oh, and a Greninja player did not even win the event.