As a co-main, I often come up against MUs I'm not sure of the ratios for, but I look at how my opponent played and compare my much more aggressive Ness to my much more patient, wally Lucas and often go 'would I be better playing the break-in game or the wall-out game?'
It's nice to switch to either character and know I can do certain things. If I switch to Lucas, I get excited at big combos and strings and PK Hoohah, if I'm switching to Ness, I get excited about the wonderful Uair and Bthrow and... PK Flash??? Whoops, that wasn't meant to go in there. *awkward*
TDK
I was versing the one and only
Kofu
online yesterday, at some point as Lucas I used PK Freeze as he was coming in from the air, he predicted it and held out bucket as G&W but I let go of it early, then was able to run and Usmash the end lag on bucket for the kill because PK Freeze's end lag is *that* low. We were... Surprised... >_____>
That reminds me, Ness vs G&W.
So now with a little bit more experience from my own side, I don't think G&W's neutral dominates Ness particularly hard in this MU. Bair is unsafe (I think even spaced we can Ftilt after the final hit), Fair is unsafe, pancakes are nice but also unsafe, same goes for DA. They're all respectable options of course, but I feel Ness has the frame data to beat G&W out if he wants to take it to the air and the power to get G&W to Uair / Bthrow kill percents VERY early. It's also important to keep in mind that both these moves kill, because usually if the opponent is trying to avoid 1, they're setting themselves up for the other. Anyway, in our matches gimping rarely occurred, and I think G&W gimping Ness is viable but requires a lot of thought on G&W's part and often a bad use of AD / DJ from Ness. I feel that if Ness puts himself in a serious position to be gimped then G&W was probably the better player anyway for being able to put him in that position and capitalise on it. Ironically I found myself dying offstage as Lucas far more than I did Ness.
G&W does have a fantastic juggling capability against Ness, who naturally hates being juggled. The ability to just beat out landing aerials with Usmash invincibility hurts my brain, but is especially effective against Ness who pretty much needs to fake out G&W then find his landing tbh or reset to the ledge which is eh.
But I don't see this MU in G&W's favour when the damage Ness needs to make up is so relatively small in regards to the neutral reads he has to make. A single read at low percents and G&W is at 30%, another and he's at 50, a few more and he's ready to die. Ness needs a lot more hitting from G&W's side and Usmash, while killing very early, can be respected better than Ness' array of kill options. So many times Ness can get hit by Bair over and over because he's trying to avoid other, more serious options, then Ness comes back and kills G&W at 75% because lolrage.
G&W is one of the better low-tier picks against Ness, but I have yet to see him be a serious tournament-level threat against him for the reasons I have outlined. The reasons I believe Ness to be high tier is because of his ridiculous damage output, the fact that things lead into themselves for more damage, like Uair at 0% true comboes into grab, and at mid percents Uair TCs into itself and Bair, and all of these aerials doing near Ryu-level damage means Ness will always remain relevant even if his design is somewhat volatile. Obviously Bthrow and Uair/Bair killing are big too and stuff like Dsmash at the ledge makes Ness one of the better 2-framers around. And if you want to talk about results, I agree Ness has dropped lately but he's still sitting at #15 on
Das Koopa
's latest updated list. Idk.
If Kofu has anything to add he's welcome to chuck it in here.