08 Primaries; Super Tuesday Results

[Eor]

Update: Obama and Huckabee win Iowa: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22484066/




With the first primary tomorrow, I thought SWF should have at least one topic where we can discuss people other then Ron Paul. Not that this topic is likely to change that.

Anyways, this is basically a place for discussing everything that goes with the nominations of the presidential candidates, because I can't wait for Iowa to make up my mind for me.

For democrats I'm going with Barack Obama, with Edwards a second choice. I do not want Hillary at all.

For republicans, I'm going for Paul, Romney, or McCain. I can't see myself voting for any of those three in the main rain, but I'd like to see Paul because I tend to agree with him outside of economic issues, McCain for being more of a centrist compared to most, or Romney just because he's mormon and it would show that the current party is moving past the Protestant domination in political affairs.

 

[Masque]

I'm an Obama fan, myself. I absolutely HATE John Edwards, if only because he's so slimy and disingenuous. I'm not crazy about Hillary, either, but I guess I'll take what I can get. In a perfect world, though, parties wouldn't exist, and we wouldn't have to worry about the horrors of partisan politics. Everyone would be socially liberal, and the world would be at peace. :bigthumbu

 

[_Phloat_]

The very idea of the power and the right of the people to establish Government presupposes the duty of every individual to obey the established Government

~George Washington...

Ugh, parties are bad, but If I were to chose, I would probably go with what Eor said, although I don't really like any of the candidates..

Good thing I can't vote yet.

 

[Crimson King]

Hilary Clinton is the best thing for the Republican Party ever. She's so right-wing, but Democrats are too blind to see it.

Obama, I really can't back because it seems everyone supports him because he is black. When I ask people why he's so great, I get very superficial answers. Not saying that's your perspective, but I just wonder if he would be so backed up if he were white. Then you have John Edwards who really, is just in it to get a Vice President nomination. Overall, yea, Obama is the best choice for Democrats, though I like Kucinich being quite different from the typical Democrat mold.

Then the Republicans. McCain is just plain insane. Guiliani has a platform of "Mayor during 9/11". Huckabee has absolutely nothing worthwhile and his religious undertones in his commercials are frightening. Mitt Romney just seems a bit too imperialist for my tastes, leaving Ron Paul as my only choice.

Of course, I have about a month for my state's primaries.

 

[Eor]

I support Obama because I agree with his views on Iraq, middle east, and really for his foreign policy. Unlike Clinton, Obama does not have a "American" centric view of the world, he understands other countries, other ways of life, and supports them. He is diplomacy first, diplomacy second, and never going to war unless it is of absolute need. He is very open and charismatic, and is against the current partisan form of government. I don't think you'd find some of his ideas agreeable (public health care), but I like them. I think Edwards was just surprised by the sudden Obamania, and thought it would die out and leave just him and Clinton, as he imagined. But it didn't, and I think that's why he all of a sudden started his campaign in earnest, because he just realized Obama wasn't a passing fad. Edwards is my second choice, because I like him over Clinton (who I disagree with on foreign policy and her complete partisanship), and to be truthful I know little of the other candidates. Obama caught me a while back, so I've been focusing on him. To be truthful, the fact that he has lived outside of America and is, in some ways, "foreign" does attract me, though it's more so his views of the world in comparison to the majority of politicians that draw me to him. some people play the race card too much for him, but to me, I more see it as people dismissing his supports and just saying "it's cause he's black".

 

[Crimson King]

See, I never saw Clinton as an option once people realized her views were deplorable. Obama was the first democrat to catch my eye, but I do disagree with a lot his beliefs, including as you stated health care. He also struck me as the type who would send in troops if two countries were attacking each other and we needed them for something due to his view of the world as a connected entity.

No idea who he would choose as a running mate, but hopefully, it's someone who can add a little more emphasis to his social policies. I may disagree with them, but they are some very honest beliefs for the betterment of all.

 

[Kyari]

lol. Romney, Eor? just because he isn't christian doesn't mean he's better, it won't mean a **** thing in the long run and once you realize how much of a crook he is, you'll wish you had one of the protestant phonies again.

 

[Eor]

What part of "I won't vote for these people" did you not understand, or what part where I explained why he was one of the three I'd like to see did you not read? I don't support his positions, and he's not very different from any of the other republican canidate minus his flip flopping, which would help crush him in a general election, and the fact that he's mormon, which doesn't mean anything, but as I'm not as concerned with the republican primary as I am with the democratic one, I don't worry too much about it.

 

[Masque]

I support Obama because I agree with his views on Iraq, middle east, and really for his foreign policy. Unlike Clinton, Obama does not have a "American" centric view of the world, he understands other countries, other ways of life, and supports them. He is diplomacy first, diplomacy second, and never going to war unless it is of absolute need. He is very open and charismatic, and is against the current partisan form of government. I don't think you'd find some of his ideas agreeable (public health care), but I like them. I think Edwards was just surprised by the sudden Obamania, and thought it would die out and leave just him and Clinton, as he imagined. But it didn't, and I think that's why he all of a sudden started his campaign in earnest, because he just realized Obama wasn't a passing fad. Edwards is my second choice, because I like him over Clinton (who I disagree with on foreign policy and her complete partisanship), and to be truthful I know little of the other candidates. Obama caught me a while back, so I've been focusing on him. To be truthful, the fact that he has lived outside of America and is, in some ways, "foreign" does attract me, though it's more so his views of the world in comparison to the majority of politicians that draw me to him. some people play the race card too much for him, but to me, I more see it as people dismissing his supports and just saying "it's cause he's black".

Thanks for summing up what I like about Obama.

I think he really has a good grip on the foreign policy issue. The turnaround from our current stance--total isolation--just isn't feasible with the reality of globalization. His charisma and anti-partisan stance could help attract a majority, thus easing some of the congressional constipation that blocks our legislative system from working efficiently (whatever that means ). I'm definitely socially liberal, and I don't have any personal qualms with public health care; frankly, I think it's kind of a nice idea. My theory is that we're always paying for someone else, and someone else is always paying for us. In that sense, economic liberalism seems kinda natural.

I still think Edwards is an idiot. It makes me lol.

EDIT: And is anyone else slightly disappointed that this hasn't earned more of a response?

 

[Jam Stunna]

This may be the first presidential campaign that I sit out. I don't like any candidate that actually has a chance to win.

Democrats in General
With the huge amount of voter discontent in 2006, what did the Democrats due in the midterm election? Get just enough seats to deadlock Congress. NOTHING has changed or gotten done since Nancy Pelosi became Speaker of the House (I'm not blaming her, just using the event as a watershed). I don't think that the Democrats truly appreciate that Congress' approval ratings are lower than President Bush's. They're kind of on cruise control, thinking that they're going to build on what they started in 2006. But they're trump card is gone: violence in Iraq is significantly lower than in 2006. What have they offered to the American people beside an end to the war, which they still haven't delivered on?

The Bottom Line: No matter how angry the American public is, the Democrats can't get their act together enough to capitalize on it.

Republicans in General
I've had enough of the party of small government and fiscal responsibility doing the exact opposite. The Republicans have been hijacked by the Christian Right (just like the Democrats have been hijacked by the Anti-War Left), and now they're butting into issues that should be no concern of the federal government: euthenasia, abortion, gay marriage and a host of other "moral" issues that have no place in government. Not to mention this overblown immigration "crisis" they created back in 2006. We have an enormous national debt, larger government (PATRIOT Act, NCBL), and these are the things that Republicans are supposed to be against.

The Bottom Line: Republicans don't know who they are anymore, and that's sad and unacceptable.

Now, the candidates:

Hillary Clinton- Aside from all the baggage and other issues, do I really want to continue the two-family rule of this nation?

Barack Obama- He speaks well, but that's all he does: speak. I don't think I've ever heard a specific leave his mouth.

John Edwards: Populist candidates just tell the people what they want to hear. He can bash corporate greed all he wants, but that won't fix what we laughingly refer to as foreign policy.

Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd-I lump these three together because they represent the candidates that I would actually vote for, but have no chance of winning.

Rudy Guilliani- Biden put it best: A noun, a verb and 9/11.

Mitt Romney- The former governor of Massechusetts is a hard-core conservative? Who does he think he's fooling?

John McCain- He's not bad, but having Joe Lieberman as an endorsement is hugely bad in my eyes.

Fred Thompson- Maybe he's just using this presidential run as leverage to get a raise on Law & Order.

Mike Huckabee- I'm sorry, but being a "Christian Leader" just isn't enough of a qualifier for me.

Ron Paul- I respect him, but he's a bit too libertarian for my tastes.

I really don't know who I'm going to vote for. I don't like any of them. That said, I can't wait for all this to be over with. I'm politicked-out, and it's only January

 

[Zombie Lucille Ball]

Barack Obama- He speaks well, but that's all he does: speak. I don't think I've ever heard a specific leave his mouth.

To be fair, this is true of probably 90% of the candidates.
(And to be really fair, it's not really true at all)

But anyone who has more than a passing interest in politics can easily look up specifics on the candidate's website, ect. The soundbites are meant to be broad, to appeal to the widest possible audience and be universal in message (thus more votes).

Besides, 2004 taught us that a LOT, maybe even a majority, of voters don't (or didn't) care about specifics.
I am referring to polls showing gay marriage was a bigger issue in that election than the war in Iraq.

Hopefully that will change this time around.

 

[Crimson King]

Well, Thompson is on his way out: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7682.html.

That brings the Republican top runners to 5 again, but it seems to vary so much it's impossible to see who is even in order.

 

[antimatter]

man, i must have missed something. where's dennis kusinich? (i doubt i spelled that right)

 

[Crimson King]

He is shut out by the liberal media. Liberals understand that bashing him would be counter-intuitive so they just don't acknowledge he exists. Conservatives do not grasp this concept so when they bash Ron Paul as a "long shot" people may research him and learn that the long shot raised $20 million in 4th quarter earnings.

 

[Eor]

I just met a Thompson supporter, I was surprised.

Anyways, here's my current prediction:

Republicans:
1. Romney
2. Huckabee (close second)
3. McCain
4. Paul
5. Thompson or Guiliani

Romney will probably narrowly beat out Huckabee, though it could very well be the other way around. McCain will probably come in third because he is still fairly well liked, with Paul in forth. Though to be fair, I am not well read on the recent polls, so this might be total crap. Just what I'm expecting. And don't yell at me for not putting Paul higher, I still don't view him as being likely to score big.

Democracts:
1. Hillary Clinton or John Edwards
2. Edwards or Clinton
3. Barack Obama

I think the Bradley Effect will take place for Obama, and those that where swept up just by his charisma will instead change their mind at the last second for Edwards. Hillary might take some of those as well, so I can't tell which one would win. Either way, I'm not expecting an Obama win, despite me wanting it as such.

Though Obama might very well surge above both of them due to Biden, Kucinich, and Richardson all having Obama as their second choices for their electors. If none of them get above 15%, which is a strong possiblity, and their electors listen to them and move to Obama, Barack might just win. To be absolutely honest, I have no idea who will win. If it was me, I'd want it to be Obama, then Edwards, then Clinton. A third place would crush Clinton and kill her campaign. And as the recent polls show that as the current case, I see it as being possible. I don't think Edwards can win without Obama getting third, but really, any three of them can win. I picked the worst case scenario for me because I've expected Gore, Dean, and Kerry to all win, and as you can guess, I'm used to not getting my election wishes. So I'm going with the saddest one, so I can't get upset, and could possibly be delighted at being proven wrong.

 

[Sworddancer9034]

I am seriously dead scared at the thought of Huckabee winning the republican primaires, much more of being our president. The USA is in just bad condition right now, someone like him will just bring us down even more. I don't really like any republican but Ron Paul, and as for the democratic party, its either Barack or Edwards for me, I could live with Hiliarly but I'll still rather have the former of them.

 

[Eor]

And they're off!

Edit: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22484066/
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/03/iowa.caucuses/index.html

 

[Grandeza]

Eor just out of curiosity are you a democrat or republican or neither?

 

[Eor]

Democrat. very liberal on social issues, moderate for economics.

Huckabee/Obama widley predicted to win

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22484066/
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/03/iowa.caucuses/index.html
http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008...-the-caucus-goers-how-to-cast-a-vote-in-iowa/

 

[Grandeza]

Democrat. very liberal on social issues, moderate for economics.

Huckabee wins, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22484066/

Cool. Same here well I will be once I'm 18. 6 yrs to go. My dad's a democrat and he too supports barack obama and is ecstatic that he won/all most definitely will win. Hopefully this is enough momentum to carry obama through.

 

[Eor]

Some polling

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21229206
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IA


It looks, at the moment, like my dream came true. Obama, Edwards, then clinton in third. If only the third place was far enough behind that it isn't considered "tied".

 

[Got Blood?]

Obama and Huckabee. Well,I don't see Huckabee being a very serious contender down the stretch,so it's lucky for Guliani,Romney,and Mcain,but this is bad news for Hillary's camp.

 

[Eor]

So, Chris Dodd dropped out.

I'm expecting Hunter to drop out as well. Kucinich and Liberman will probably drop out either now or after New Hampshire, with Thompson/Paul dropping out after South Carolina, unless they win one of those states or poll a close second/third. Mccain will probably drop out soon after.

At the moment, I'm seeing either Huckabee or Romney for winning the nation GOP nomination, though considering how bad I was guessing Iowa, I don't see why I should be right now. If Obama wins New Hampshire, and Clinton gets another third place, then I'd see Obama going on to win, unless Edwards surprises him with winning South Carolina, which might make the race a two way debate between them. If Clinton wins NH, then I can't tell.

 

[Jammer]

Oh crap, I do not want Huckabee to win. This is bad.

I guess Obama's my favorite Democratic candidate, so this is good news for that. I'm just really scared that Huckabee has a chance of winning. He scares the crap out of me.

 

[bballstar23]

Wow, the predictions were true. I'm really not sure who I'm even going to vote for right now. I should probably due some more research, since this'll be my first election.

 

[jaej]

If Huckabee becomes president I'm moving to England. Seriously.

 

[Eor]

I hope Huckabee is too crazy to win a national election. Anyways, I'm not expecting him to win in New Hampshire, though it's a real possibility. I don't think Huckabee could win, though maybe his "God is making me win" talk will convince some people.

 

[Crimson King]

Paul had a pretty excellent showing with 11% smash the hell out of Guliani. Don't be so sure he is going to quit anytime soon, Eor, he's in it until the end and would have no problem splitting the vote later on.

 

[Jammer]

I think I heard somewhere that Ron Paul is really strong in New Hampshire, like he was the most popular Republican candidate in a survey there or something. Is this true, or was it some other state?

If Paul wins New Hampshire, that will certainly give him a lot of momentum. Also, yay for him beating Guliani.

 

[Crimson King]

New Hampshire is a VERY Libertarian based state as a whole. A lot of people feel that pretty much means he will win it, but really if he does 3rd or better he has a lot of momentum. Many are predicting a victory in South Carolina.

It should also be noted, that Reagan lost in Iowa during his victory in 1980 to the White House, so this by no means kills Ron Paul.

 

[shadydentist]

Actually, I think that only two candidates have ever won both the Iowa primaries and the presidency, one of which was GWB. So this by no means kills... anyone who hasn't already dropped out.

 

[Eor]

Paul only managed to beat Guiliani because Guiliani is not campaigning for striving for either Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina. Paul has a chance, but I don't think its likely. The fact that the only people who think so are his supporters doesn't help any. I can't see him breaking out, he's been polling in single digits all throughout New Hampshire. I'm sick to death of talking about Ron Paul, but really, I think people are deluding themselves into thinking he can win. And I'll be the first person to quote myself if I prove wrong on this.

 

[Crimson King]

If he drops though, I have pretty much decided to switch to Independent and never vote for anyone but Libertarians. Hey, at least he got me to vote.

 

[Tryptomine]

Kind of glad to hear Obama won, since he sounds like a pretty good candidate, though admittedly I know far too little about him to really claim support. Huckabee though, sweet zombie Jesus I think I'm going to be sick. He's fast catching up and preparing to eclipse Guiliani as my most hated candidate.

And Paul beating Guiliani? I think I feel some cautious optimism for the state of humanity returning.

Wait, what's this in my email...? 2Girls1Cup?

...

Nevermind.


(Stupid jokes aside, saw this on Digg and actually seemed pretty cool. http://www.electoralcompass.com/page/0/thema+s/ quick quiz on your political views to determine what "label" you fit under and how close your views are to each candidate's. For people like me who weren't even entirely sure what each label always implied, let alone what I myself would be considered. Apparently I'm closest in views to Obama, only slightly more economically moderate then him.)

 

[Jammer]

(Stupid jokes aside, saw this on Digg and actually seemed pretty cool. http://www.electoralcompass.com/page/0/thema+s/ quick quiz on your political views to determine what "label" you fit under and who close your views are to each candidate's. For people like me who wasn't even entirely sure what each label always implied, let alone what I myself would be considered. Apparently I'm closest in views to Obama, only slightly more economically moderate then him.)

Well, I will assume that this is an accurate website. It said I was closest to John Edwards, although Obama was only a tiny bit further away.

Ron Paul was very far away from me in my views. But I think he would be a better president because of his stance on certain issues that no other candidate has. While he may have much more conservative values than me, he wants to let the states decide, and that is A-OK by me.

Cool website, Tryptomine.

 

[Crimson King]

I am on the Economic Right, closest to Ron Paul and then Barack Obama. Pretty good.

 

[Dodongo]

Sweet, another topic for me to talk about Ron Paul in ^_^.

 

[MattDel]

I am on the Economic Right, closest to Ron Paul and then Barack Obama. Pretty good.

same for me

 

[Eor]

I got closest to Obama, and furthest away from Thompson. Not sure how close it is, but eh.

I'm expecting Huckabee to crash in New Hampshire. Anyone with real knowledge on the republican side want to give a prediction?

 

[Fawriel]

Apparently I'm closest to Edwards. Can't say I heard of that guy before reading this thread. Then again, I'm not a citizen of the US. I also couldn't accurately answer to all the propositions...

Haha, before I read this thread, I actually thought that Obama and Clinton were the sole candidates for presidency right now.

Needless to say, I support Obama. That he's black made him interesting in the first place, but I did more research and can say pretty safely that he seems like a good man to me. He also looks the part; his smile appears much more genuine than Hillary's. And I trust my instincts on such issues.
Hey, they worked for the last president.