Rate Their Chance Returns! Day 13 - Bowser Jr.

[M15t3R E]

The fact that you made your closing statement with two instances of 'I feel...' in relation to the developers' feelings, in addition to forming assumptions as to Sakurai's quote and what's objectively sensible to developers suggests otherwise.

At the very least, you're not debating Ridley's bloody personality, though.

Those were the subjective conclusions based upon by objective statements. You are correct that I conclude with conjecture, just as the other side does.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I considered Charizard but opted against it because he's really just "part of Pokemon Trainer" as opposed to his own unique piece, as Pokemon Trainer is the guy who uses "beasts" to fight for him.

Sakurai considers Charizard, Ivysaur, Squirtle, Zelda, Sheik, Samus and Zero Suit Samus as unique and individual characters. So I will as well.

And yes, that's what a character is, but when I read "individual" it implies being unique. Ridley may be unique in regards to other smashers, but I said he has as much personality as an Octorok. If you put Ridley next to another snarling beastly winged dragon, there's not much metaphysically that would separate the two, unlike if you put Pikachu next to another yellow electric rat, Pikachu being more than "an electric yellow rat" just becomes obvious. There's just something unique missing about him to make him more than "A snarling winged beast." Bowser would be a snarling turtle but he has that bit of personality (especially in later games) that makes him more than a snarling turtle. Pikachu has this unique personality that makes him more than "a pikachu/electric rodent.".

Ridley has personality. Even if its not that different from other monsters, it still works great for smash. I mean if personality was an issue, we wouldn't have gotten Marth. He's the definition of bland in his own series. It was Sakurai's interpretation that made him the graceful, feminine fighter we know and love.

Certainly, Ridley could have personality added to him, but that's just more work that doesn't really represent Ridley as a metroid character. Pikachu's personality is like that of Pikachu in Pokemon. Bowsers personality is a lot like Bowser in Mario, and though Bowser is quite a snarling beast in Smash, Bowser, unlike Ridley, has a distinct, well-established personality before being in Smash..

Again. Look at Marth. Heck look at R.O.B. and Mr. Game & Watch. They had literally no personality before smash. Smash making a personality isn't bad.

Hope that's understandable. But yeah, this is all opinion.

Yeah. I understand what you're trying to say. I just don't agree with it. No offense, just don't agree with it.

IAs for Ridley having personality in the games.. Not necessarily. He's expanded upon in comics, but in the games he's just revived by others to play the role of "a monster." A monster might be a personality, but a personality of "a monster" on "a monster" isn't exactly individualistic.

He has more personality than you give him credit for. Think of the Prime and Other M games. Heck think of SSE. Some of his body language and actions show that there is more than just a monster in that scaly head of his.

 

[BKupa666]

Those were the subjective conclusions based upon by objective statements. You are correct that I conclude with conjecture, just as the other side does.

Objective statements, as in plural? Where did Sakurai mention Ridley beyond his Nintendo Power statement?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

At this point I would like to ask if you've even played Smash bros. and seen the characters in it




Those are two totally different things, using a strawman argument isn't really helping Ridley's case.



Saying that someone could be unique doesn't make them unique. You didn't provide any examples on how he could be unique or what he could bring to the Smash Bros roster that characters don't all ready have.

I have. What are you trying to say? Bowser doesn't fit that criteria. Neither does Wolf, Wario, Dedede or Meta-Knight. Ganondorf comes close but he has never let his hatred and desire for revenge cloud his judgement. Furthermore, its not one of Ganondorf's driving forces or defining character traits like it is Ridley's.

How are they different? I'm showing how the archetype argument really is ridiculous.

Look at the Ridley thread. Look at all of the movesets people have posted. Tell me how he can't be unique. But just to give you a tidbit. Ridley could be a heavy character that focuses on aerial game. That is a style we have not yet seen in smash.

 

[EddyBearr]

1. Sakurai considers Charizard, Ivysaur, Squirtle, Zelda, Sheik, Samus and Zero Suit Samus as unique and individual characters. So I will as well.



2. Ridley has personality. Even if its not that different from other monsters, it still works great for smash. I mean if personality was an issue, we wouldn't have gotten Marth. He's the definition of bland in his own series. It was Sakurai's interpretation that made him the graceful, feminine fighter we know and love.



3. Again. Look at Marth. Heck look at R.O.B. and Mr. Game & Watch. They had literally no personality before smash. Smash making a personality isn't bad.



4. Yeah. I understand what you're trying to say. I just don't agree with it. No offense, just don't agree with it.



5. He has more personality than you give him credit for. Think of the Prime and Other M games. Heck think of SSE. Some of his body language and actions show that there is more than just a monster in that scaly head of his.

1. Oh yeah, definitely all unique characters on their own (but I'd argue that Venasaur and squirtle lack personality), but with the PkMn trainer, no matter what happens, they'll gain the benefit of having a trainer.
2. Eh, I'm just not too thrilled (and as such don't see why any developer would be either) with such a conforming/basic/common personality. As for Marth, he's by default got a "leader/antagonist/vengeful personality" as per his role in the game. The two Biggest differences that give Marth an edge would be Marth being "the main good guy of a highly popular series" and him being human, making him easier to relate to and thus making personality easier to see.
3. I'd consider making gimmick characters an exception, but G&W kinda screams "handyman that does anything without being all that much" to me.
4. Heretic.
5. I don't pay much attention. He might have more than I give him credit for, but with DDD as an example you can see personality from a mile away, while Ridley you have to dig. You wanna reach a broad audience with a game, so the digger you have to go, the less people it will connect with.

I won't be surprised if Ridley makes it in as a playable character, but I'm obviously leaning more towards "it's not gonna happen" that "it is."

 

[Swamp Sensei]

1. Oh yeah, definitely all unique characters on their own (but I'd argue that Venasaur and squirtle lack personality), but with the PkMn trainer, no matter what happens, they'll gain the benefit of having a trainer.
2. Eh, I'm just not too thrilled (and as such don't see why any developer would be either) with such a conforming/basic/common personality. As for Marth, he's by default got a "leader/antagonist/vengeful personality" as per his role in the game. The two Biggest differences that give Marth an edge would be Marth being "the main good guy of a highly popular series" and him being human, making him easier to relate to and thus making personality easier to see.
3. I'd consider making gimmick characters an exception, but G&W kinda screams "handyman that does anything without being all that much" to me.
4. Heretic.
5. I don't pay much attention. He might have more than I give him credit for, but with DDD as an example you can see personality from a mile away, while Ridley you have to dig. You wanna reach a broad audience with a game, so the digger you have to go, the less people it will connect with.

I won't be surprised if Ridley makes it in as a playable character, but I'm obviously leaning more towards "it's not gonna happen" that "it is."

1. Fair enough.
2. Marth being the antagonist? Lol. That's a typo right? I assume you meant Ridley. I never said that Marth wasn't easier to include. I just said that Marth's personality was bland and considered uninteresting by most. About as bland as Ridley's perhaps. Besides villains are interesting. There is a reason why villains are often among the most popular characters in a story.
3. G&W does scream that. Now. Before smash, he had no identity, let alone personality. And by gimmick, you mean WTF? Because R.O.B. and G&W aren't really gimmicks.
4. Blasphemer.
5. If you're talking about SSE then yes, Dedede had more personality because he had much more screen time. Ridley got what? 20 seconds of cutscenes in SSE?

Likewise. I wouldn't be too surprised if he didn't make it in. I just think it will happen and I want it to happen desperately.Know what I mean?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

EDIT: Double Post

GLARGH!!!!

 

[DragonSniperNintendo]

Ridley - 35%

 

[DMurr]

Ridley....

Chances - 85%
Pretty much the top wanted character left.

Want - 70%
It would be higher but I'm expecting that they would be his Other M appearance and I don't care much for it. I'd rather have one of the hunters... personally.


I expect Isaac to have around 65%, even though I personally think he has a higher chance than that (hopefully not out of bias).

I nominate Lyn x5.

 

[Deleted member]

This day has gone on long enough. Voting is closed. You can still discuss Ridley until I start the new day, but all voting is closed off.

 

[Anomilus]

Ridley - 65%

The biggest issue in Ridley's path right now isn't his innate size but rather the amount of particles it would take to develop him as a playable character. Time and time again we have seen favorites pushed to the side because of this issue. The reason Pit didn't make it into melee was the difficulty in programming his wings and in the same game, Sakurai found it best to design 6 easy to program clones than add another unique addition. Therefore in order for Ridley to get in as a playable character he has to be made a priority early on. He is a a very possible addition, but one regulated but Sakurai's priorities.

Now I believe this will serve to be in our favor this time around only because of the hype that has built up in the past few years added by the fact that there really aren't any shoo-ins to push the purple dragon to the side. Still the fact remains that Ridley would be a time intensive project, and it all depends on whether Sakurai goes through and tackles the issue head on or instead decides that his time and resources can be better suited elsewhere. And for those who are quick to note that Ridley was a boss character in Brawl, keep in mind that programming a boss character with only a small set of functions is much easier than programming a playable character with a full moveset.

Want - 100%

At this point I'd just like to bring emphasis to this post. I think it has the most sensible reason as to why Ridley may not make it into SSB4.

Most everything else being argued above is strongly opinionated or based off of limiting viewpoints or subjective weighing of evidence. What Homelessvagrant says about "particles" does actually make sense. I'm not as technically familiar with Brawl and its character design process as others, but I do know that Ridley's body is definitely one that would require a LOT of bones to coordinate all his movements and collision spheres. Indeed, it would require a lot of effort.

As for Sakurai's statement regarding Ridley, I think it's been overly analyzed by both sides. As far as I'm concerned, what Sakurai said was mostly a spur-of-the-moment thought to something he clearly had not been contemplating much. People make it sound as if he spent time thinking about Ridley and was prepared to respond to the question asked of him. Rather, it was more a reply out reaction followed by a mere moment's contemplation. Like "Huh? That's weird! That won't work! .... Well... maybe it might, maybe not, who knows?". That's pretty much it. It's not really a confirmation that Ridley is reasonably possible, but neither is it confirmation that Ridley is unreasonable.

What we do know is that time and circumstances change people's views. We don't really know if Sakurai realized the extent of Ridley's popularity back then. We don't really know if Sakurai ever truly considered Ridley as playable before delegating him to boss role and creating Zero Suit Samus. What we do know is that circumstances are definitely different this time around. It's very likely Sakurai now knows how popular Ridley is. We know he at least planned to delegate more of the workload to people experienced with designing fighting game characters, unlike in the past where it seems he designed just about everything himself. We know he now has a more powerful system in Wii U to create characters, and we know he also has the significantly less powerful system in the 3DS to consider when creating characters.

Finally, this "canon" or "continuity" business regarding Smash needs to be regarded with much less weight. Ultimately, the previous Smash games have been vastly different in their interpretation of the Nintendo world. First it was playing with figurines as if like an imaginative child. Then it was trophies and a minor excursion into various Nintendo-like locales and little else. Then it was a collaboration of Nintendo characters in an original but undefined world battling some world-capturing force (or something like that), the trophy theme playing a slightly enhanced part.

What's occurred in previous Smash games really shouldn't have such a considerable effect on what's going to occur with this new Smash game. The only things that we can expect to carry over are most items, most characters, some stages, certain staple modes, and most staple game mechanics. Everything else is a guess at best. This includes what Sakurai plans to do with Ridley. Not saying he won't decide to make him a boss or Assist Trophy, but if he does, I wouldn't be so quick to assume that it's because he only sees Ridley as a boss-type character or that he was a boss in the previous Smash.

 

[Anomilus]

Darn unintentional double-post. Sorry. >=/

 

[EddyBearr]

1. Fair enough.
2. Marth being the antagonist? Lol. That's a typo right? I assume you meant Ridley. I never said that Marth wasn't easier to include. I just said that Marth's personality was bland and considered uninteresting by most. About as bland as Ridley's perhaps. Besides villains are interesting. There is a reason why villains are often among the most popular characters in a story.
3. G&W does scream that. Now. Before smash, he had no identity, let alone personality. And by gimmick, you mean WTF? Because R.O.B. and G&W aren't really gimmicks.
4. Blasphemer.
5. If you're talking about SSE then yes, Dedede had more personality because he had much more screen time. Ridley got what? 20 seconds of cutscenes in SSE?

Likewise. I wouldn't be too surprised if he didn't make it in. I just think it will happen and I want it to happen desperately.Know what I mean?

1. GG get crushed I win.
2. Protagonist. Marth could have a "bland personality" but at least it's a perosnality, as cliche as it might be. Ridley is just a beast (not in a good way. He's just a snarling biting dragon, like every other snarling biting dragon.)
3. For fun / adding to party atmosphere. They're definitely fun concepts, unlike the standard "beefy guy with a sword" fighters.
4. CC or DC
5. Nah, long before, in the Kirby series. Self-proclaimed king = 20 layers of personality automatically added, long before smash inclusion.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

1. GG get crushed I win.
2. Protagonist. Marth could have a "bland personality" but at least it's a perosnality, as cliche as it might be. Ridley is just a beast (not in a good way. He's just a snarling biting dragon, like every other snarling biting dragon.)
3. For fun / adding to party atmosphere. They're definitely fun concepts, unlike the standard "beefy guy with a sword" fighters.
4. CC or DC
5. Nah, long before, in the Kirby series. Self-proclaimed king = 20 layers of personality automatically added, long before smash inclusion.

1. Never surrender!
2. Again. Ridley has a personality. Look at how he acts. Look at what he does. He shows a lot more brain power and character than just some mindless monster.
3. Well. I wouldn't really call those "gimmicks" more of different choices made for a different reason.
4. Wut?
5. I could say the same for Ridley. A leader in an intergalactic group of pirates = 20 layers of personality of automatically added. It's cliche personality, (so is Dedede's to an extant) but it's still there. What you're going off of now is implications. There are lots of implications of Ridley's personality as well. Especially in Other M, SSE and the Prime games. He has a fair amount in Super and Zero Mission as well.

 

[Neanderthal]

(not part of the ranking):
Mega Man (Mega Man) (73.7% in likelihood, 71.25% in want)
Villager (Animal Crossing) (41.5% in likelihood, 67.75% in want)
Wii Fit Trainer (Wii Fit) (5.38% in likelihood, 46.55% in want)

I'm just curious. Where did you get these figures from?

 

[Starbound]

They were from the first day when we rated them.

idk why we did though. I think it was just a time filler activity.

 

[Banjodorf]

Someone said Ridley's just a mindless monster? Get that **** outta here...

 

[Neanderthal]

They were from the first day when we rated them.

idk why we did though. I think it was just a time filler activity.

Ah.
I think they are way off from what it would have been before. No way we would have given WFT a 5% chance before E3. Not a single person even thought she was a possibility.

 

[RomanceDawn]

Just because you don't see Ridley's personality at every turn doesn't mean it does not exist. He is apparently brilliant as well as vicious. Seeing him hold his head and shake of Pikachu's thunder shows he is no mindless beast.
Where did Captain Falcon get his personality? Losely from the games manual and some comics? How in the world is that any different than Ridley?

Go read Ridley's trophy description in the last two games. Sakurai knows about his personality, seems some of you don't.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm just curious. Where did you get these figures from?

I averaged all the votes that was made that day and put them together.

The reason why they're not part of the ranking is because of hindsight bias. Obviously, like you said, Wii Fit Trainer wouldn't even have gotten a 5%. Mega Man would also not have scored as high as he did even on Smashboards where there was the least amount of pessimism for him.

Well today certainly has been eventful. Luckily, it's all coming to a close soon.

Why wouldn't I be?

I'm sure you will, I just wanted to give a friendly reminder.

 

[Deleted member]

Night fell on the community and many blood were shed. Ridley proved his violent nature by killing many there were in the audience. Some of them were burned to crisp, others were thrown around like dolls and there were a few that even were tortured brutally. One in particular died a slow painful death.

The remaining speculators were shaken. After such a terrifying event, Ridley suddenly stopped. Immediately, he flew out of the stadium and continued his search for Samus in hopes of annihilating her once and for all.

One hour passed and the announcer just got by announcing Ridley's score. When it came to likelihood, he scored a 70.02% overall with a 71.1% from Smashboards and a 68.93% on GameFAQs, which was only behind Palutena. It was obvious that many strange people loved Ridley as well as he received as score overall of 79.78% overall with a 78.73% on Smashboards and 80.81% on GameFAQs. There would have been speculation that the likelihood score caused Ridley's rampage against the audience, but given that it wasn't announced before the massacre, everyone agreed that Samus was to be feared for.

But hope soon came to the audience. Shortly after the scores were announced, Isaac walked gracefully into the stadium. Here, he was met by many of his fans that loved him for who he was and desired to see him in more games. Having being a candidate since pre-Brawl, many fans have waited for a long time for his inclusion. Smash 4 perhaps would be his chance, though it was unknown in regards to whenever or not that would be the case. Either way, his demonstration of psynergy has hyped the audience.

Day 4 begins! Today, you will be rating Isaac's likelihood and how much you want Isaac along with predicting King K. Rool's score for tomorrow. You also have five nominations at your disposal, as you do every day. The day will end on June 26th, 2013 sometimes after 7 AM (either that or later in the day when I have time).

The winner of the likelihood prediction was Erimir from Smashboards! He gets five extra nominations. Chauzu has not used his five extra nominations yet, so he still can use them.

If you are confused, here's the format to use to help you out:

Isaac: *Insert likelihood with possible reasoning*
*Insert want score*

King K. Rool: *Insert prediction for King K. Rool's score tomorrow*

Nominations: *insert five nominations*

 

[kikaru]

Isaac: 45% Chance
Wasn't planned to be playable in Brawl, series is dying, most recent game was sub-par compared to the first two, brief cameo in the most recent game, and with no plans for a continuation of Golden Sun; these are the reasons I'm giving him a 45% chance.

Want: 100% (1 million % if I could). He is among my top 3 characters to get in to the next game.

King K. Rool: 70%

Nominations: Shulk x5

 

[Gingerbread Man]

Isaac: 70% I don't see any reasons why he should not be added and those who are familiar with the character would love to see him in smash. He was at least acknowledged in Brawl. But golden sun isn't as... prevalent as it could be. As ignored as the franchise gets, its not out of the question to see him miss the boat, but it would be a damn shame if he did.
Want: 85%

King K. Rool's score: 90% People seem to really want this guy. I don't recall any arguments that he wont be in smash either. From what I've seen, his inclusion has been rather consistent among smash fans.

Nominations:
x3 Robin
x1 Paper Mario
x1 Lucas

 

[TKactual]

Issac: 50% Chance
He isn't the main character of the series anymore, and the newest golden sun game didn't do too hot.

Want: 70% I really like Issac, but I would chose others over him.

King K. Rool: 75%

Nominations: Lloyd Irving x5

 

[Starbound]

Isaac's chances: 50%
Depends how much Sakurai values pre-Brawl popularity (which was a lot) vs post-Brawl popularity (which is not very much)

Want: 50%
Never played Golden Sun and don't really want to so 50% seems fair. If he's unique then cool.

King K. Rool Prediction: 78%

Nomz: Toad x1, Bowser Jr. x2, Dixie Kong x1, Takamaru x1

 

[Jedisupersonic]

Isaac: Chances. I'd say around 65%
While he may have a unique set of powers his popularity has lost steam over the years, Golden Sun doesn't draw in as many people as it did back when it was first around, it will depend if Sakurai looks at his pre-brawl stuff and sees his popularity back then.

Want: 90%
I have wanted Isaac for a long time, seeing his Psynergy in Smash 4 would be amazing. I also wouldn't mind if they gave him a VA considering he did speak in The Lost Age and the DS game.

King K. Rool: I'm guessing an 80% for K. Rool.

Nominations: Roy X3, Shulk X1, Sonic X1

 

[Fastblade5035]

Isaac: 40% Chance
He was an assist trophy, has at least some demand, and his series is currently un-repped. Unfortunately, he has much more against him than for.

Want: 50%
Couldn't care less if he got in or not. At the same time, I would be pleased if he was viable and unique.

King K. Rool: 85%


Nominations:
Owain (Fire Emblem) x 5

 

[---]

Issac - 50%
Want - 55%
+ Golden Sun is deserving of a character
+ Was an AT in Brawl
+ Is fairly popular
- Arguably reached his peak Pre-Brawl
- His niche has competition from Shulk

 

[Banjodorf]

Oh boy! Isaac and K. Rool!

Isaac: Prediction: 75%.

It might seem a little biased, and yes he's in my top 5, but I won't go over 80% for Isaac's likelihood. Why? Because Golden Sun wasn't considered (as far as we know) for representation outside of an AT in Brawl. Nowadays, with character popularity being more important, and Sakurai rethinking the Brawl days (Villager, etc.) I think Isaac has a much better chance. He's also still relevant in his series that has as many games as the Mother franchise. I really don't see anything against Isaac's inclusion other than being overlooked by Sakurai for not having as vocal a fanbase. Relevancy people be damned, because Matthrew has much less going for him outside of being recent. There's no cure for stupidity on the internet however.

Want: 90% Isaac's in my Top 5. He's amazing, has alot of potential as a hybrid Sword/Earth magic user, and comes from an incredibly well-received series. To say it doesn't deserve a rep in Smash Bros. is pure stupidity. However, someone in my Top 5 has to compete with K. Rool, Little Mac, Takamaru and Palutena. If you know me, well then, Isaac has some heavy competition. Still going to flip my *&E( when he's revealed, however.

------------------------------

King K. Rool: 95%. Let's be serious here folks. The only miniscule thing K. Rool has against his inclusion is relevancy and with the recent licensing of this product, that's in all technicality even a non-issue. (To clarify, Nintendo had to lisence said product. Recently. Said product has K. Rool. In addition, DK has many things pulled from that show in Smash. (His Neutral B, his White color, etc.)

Even if he doesn't show up in Tropical Freeze (Which I still think it's likely he will), K. Rool is by far the most recurring villain in the DK franchise, appearing in 8 seperate games and 11 if you include ports. Also, Kremlings, his underlings, have been featured in far more. (Strikers, Diddy Kong Racing/DS, Power Tennis, you NAME it)

K. Rool has popularity, he has a striking original design, he has character; man, he's got it all. Anyone who thinks him not showing up in a couple games (with a company known for trying new things) means anything needs to get their head out of their ass. Anyone who thinks Dixie being in Tropical Freeze makes K. Rool somehow less wanted, iconic or likely needs to do the same. In my view, DKC needs 4 reps anyway.

Every other highly-prolific Nintendo franchise has its main villain, and if Diddy had been in Melee, K. Rool would've been in Brawl. Also, Sakurai loves to pile on the DKC fanservice (Just look at Diddy, who by the way hadn't been in a mainline DKC game in any noticible fashion since DK64 when Brawl was released.)

Yeah. Long live the KING!

As per my usual:

K. Rool x3
Little Mac x1
Takamaru x1

 

[Aduross]

Seems like a fun game. Here are my thoughts:

Isaac: 40%
He was acknowledged in Brawl as an Assist Trophy however he hasn't had much exposure since then. I have doubts that they'll reconsider him now.

Want: 80%
I loved Golden Sun, and I'd be stoked if he got in, but I wouldn't flip tables or anything if they passed on him.

King K. Rool: 79%
If I'm being completely honest, I don't have high hopes for the reptilian monarch, but people seem pretty confident so I'll go with a conservatively high estimate.

Nominations: Lyn x4, Little Mac x1

 

[Starbound]

Banjodorf, I don't know why you're giving your nominations to King K. Rool considering he's already up for tomorrow's discussion. Seems like you're wasting three nominations to me.

 

[Deleted member]

Banjodorf: We're not rating King K. Rool today, just predicting the score he gets tomorrow.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I'm gonna go and say.....

Isaac Prediction: 65%
He is still a pretty popular character and if Sakurai is indeed going for new series, he would be among the first few characters picked. Plus a game made post-brawl helps his chances.

Want: 90%
One of my most wanted characters. He would be amazing!

K.Rool Prediction: 83%

Nominations:
Pokemon Trainer x3
Mewtwo
Little Mac

 

[SmashShadow]

Isaac 60%
Pros:
He is a pretty popular character in the West
Had a game after brawl
3 appearances and is 2nd party
Appeared as an assist trophy in brawl
Series not represented in Smash by playable characters
Unique from other Sword users with his Venus abilities
Less competition from more important characters
Mascot of the Golden Sun series

Want: 95% probably my most wanted newcomer if not tied with K.Rool.

Cons:
Not as popular in Japan
Mathew could take his spot being the current protagonist
Wasn't main character of the last Golden Sun
Last Golden Sun didn't sell nearly as well as the 2 previous ones

K.Rool
71.1%

5x Bowser Junior

edit: changed K.Rool prediction

 

[Shorts]

Isaac: 45%

I just don't really see it happening.

Want: 20%

I have nothing against this character, but no real desire for it.

King K. Rool: 85%

Krystal x3
Tharja x2

 

[Deleted member]

Isaac ~ 50%

I'm on the fence in regards to whenever or not he gets in this game. He's one of the many characters in which it is a "now or never" scenario; either he gets in now or he will never get in.

First let's look at the negative; Isaac is no doubt a popular choice for Smash 4 and is within the Top 10 most wanted in the West. However, his popularity has declined ever since the pre-Brawl days as his Japanese fan base has mostly collapsed (although he still gets some request) and his western popularity has began to decline. He also has to deal with competition from several misc. rep in what will be only one or two more misc. spots left; Starfy, Saki and especially Shulk. All three of these characters could end up being chosen for this game. So he doesn't have the greatest odds of getting in.

On the other hand, Sakurai has proven with Mega Man that he does look at pre-Brawl stuff in regards to characters and that is where Isaac's popularity was the largest. He will likely use pre-Brawl a lot to help with deciding who are popular choices and who aren't. Since Isaac was within the Top 10 during pre-Brawl in Japan, chances are that Isaac did really well in the poll and that does matter. Isaac has also been popularly requested for a very long time as he was a popular choice ever since the first part of 2002. The Golden Sun franchise has also been critically acclaimed; with the first two receiving very high score and the third title also receive good reviews. People in general really like Golden Sun.

One common argument used against Isaac is that his franchise has fallen from prominence or is "dead". Same could be said with Mega Man really, who's franchise has fell ever harder, but he got in Smash 4. Sakurai picks characters based off his four criteria and Isaac fulfills it. Also note that Brawl was not his chance; he was never going to get in over Wario for sure and Olimar has the benefit of the Miyamoto factor; so Isaac clearly wasn't going to get in over them. Isaac is now on a playing field that is more even. Whenever or not he does get chosen is another story, but he is a definitive candidate.

Want ~80%

Never played any of his games, but he seems really interesting and I'd like to see him in. Plus I want Djinn as an item.

Predicting that King K. Rool gets a 59.14%. A lot of doubters will come from GameFAQs.

Nominate Pac-Man x5

 

[FalKoopa]

Isaac:
Likeliness: 70%
If Sakurai is using pre-Brawl era popularity, then he has chance. Probably one of the few ATs who can make the jump into playable status.

Want: 95%
My second most wanted character, only behind Lyn.

K. Rool prediction: 85%

Nominations: Lyn x 5

 

[Erimir]

Well, Golden Sun is another series that does not have a lot of sales (~3 million) compared to some others (and while, again, sales aren't everything, they affect how many people will know and want Isaac in the game). Not only that, but each game had lower sales than the previous. The fact that they're seemingly not interested in continuing the series is another hit against him (it also seems unlikely that he would be the protagonist of any sequels). I also think unless they have another game and it does very well, this is probably his last chance to get in (until we get to Smash 8 and he's eligible as a "retro" character). I liked the Golden Sun games fine, but as far as personality, I didn't find Isaac to stand out compared to the generic JRPG protagonist. He does seem to be among the more desired characters among Smash fans. I'm not sure how the data Sakurai's looking at compares to our polls though, but I assume he has a poll of a less hardcore group.

Isaac is yet another male, sword-wielding protagonist (god, every time I say this it's making me realize just how common and boring that is...). While he can use other weapons, he's only depicted with a sword in official artwork. So anyway, that's not very interesting. However, he uses psynergy. They could go the Ness/Lucas route and have him use psynergy of other characters, or make him use primarily his earth/plant-based powers. Personally, I think he'd be more interesting as a character that used psynergy more and weapons less. There's not a lot of representation of those kind of powers - Ivysaur has vines and Charizard has rock smash, but that's it (I don't think Ivysaur's other specials are very representative of how Isaac would use plant attacks). It is possible that he could use a sword for some basic attacks and psynergy for all his specials. He has an obvious Final Smash - something to do with summoning Djinn. If Sakurai wanted to make Isaac have a unique move set that plays differently from other characters it's not hard to do. He would not be difficult to implement overall. However, his uniqueness doesn't seem to me to be enough to count as a strongly positive factor, but he definitely avoids losing points (WFT, Villager and Mega Man all gain uniqueness points, and I don't see him as on that level).

Isaac chances: 35%
First of all, I'm trying to cut my numbers down compared to other people because fact is that there are only a limited number of slots so if everyone plausible has a >50% chance we'll end up predicting a 70+ roster like the previous version of this game. So remember, 35% is 1 in 3. That's not nothing* by any means, and that's certainly higher than I would rate the majority of characters. Unfortunately, I see Golden Sun's declining sales combined with the fact that he's not topping the wanted charts as making him not super likely. But he's wanted enough to be on Sakurai's radar, I reckon. There is some competition from characters like Shulk who I would see as fulfilling a similar role (sword and magic user, RPG protag, but Xenoblade seems more up-and-coming than Golden Sun with X being potentially a big title for the Wii U).

*With the guy who gave Ridley 25%, I should say that your rhetoric actually sounds more negative than your rating. 25% is nowhere near impossible (the 2% guy I would say is definitely too low though). On second thought my score was probably too high, but I still think he's significantly more likely than not (63%-75%).

Isaac want: 63%
It'd be cool to have a Golden Sun rep, but I have other characters I'd rather have. There are only a handful of characters I really want that weren't already in Brawl, so there is definitely space for more, and Isaac is one of the ones I'd rather see. But more because of Golden Sun generally than because of Isaac himself.

Nominations:
8x Simon Belmont
2x Dixie Kong

 

[Erimir]

Damn double post. Didn't show up when I posted.

 

[Ice Sage]

Isaac chances: 40%
He was an assist trophy last game, so maybe he has some chance?
His popularity has gone down tho.

Want: 70
wynaut
it'd be nice to have a golden sun rep :D

King K.rool: hmm I'd say 80%