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Rate Their Chance Returns! Day 13 - Bowser Jr.

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FlareHabanero

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The Super Smash Bros. 3DS and Wii-U scene has heated up...

For the past two years, fans have awaited new information for the game. Until then, fans have debated and scrutinized every character under the sun which have resulted in many flame wars and drama within the community.

At long last, E3 has finally provided the community information on characters. Nine veterans were confirmed; Mario, Bowser, Donkey Kong, Link, Samus, Kirby, Fox, Pikachu and Pit. All of these were considered standard fares by the community, so they came at no surprise.

What was shocking however; were the three newcomers unveiled on that day. The first of which was the Villager, who came in despite being supposedly thrown away entirely and finally gave Animal Crossing the rep it deserved. This was significant in that it showed that characters can be added even if previously thrown away.

Next up came the most wanted newcomer; no other than Mega Man himself. For the past few years, the Blue Bomber has went through terrible times. Three games cancelled, his franchise's status being dramatically decreased, being left out of Marvel Vs. Capcom 3 and other things had created a lot of doubt in regards to Mega Man being in Smash. However, his inclusion was nevertheless made a reality and fans all over the world celebrated his inclusion.

But the third and the last character proved to be the most shocking; Wii Fit Trainer. Practically no one even discussed her and no one took her seriously as having a chance of getting in. However, Sakurai added her because no one saw her coming, further proving the unpredictable nature of Smash speculation.

The confirmation of these three characters further show the dynamic that Smash brings to the game. Even with the unpredictable nature of Smash, many brave souls attempt to guess which character gets in and which doesn't. This is why Rate Their Chance has returned and it will be interesting to see how close it gets to guessing the final roster.

"...IT'S SHOWTIME!"



Previous Character: Little Mac (Punch-Out!!)
Up for Prediction: Paper Mario (Super Mario Bros.)
Up for Rating: Bowser Jr. (Super Mario Bros.)
Eligible for Re-Voting: No one yet.

How To Play:
Rate Their Chance is a game where you can rate a character's likelihood based off your own judgment. In order to vote, you would give a percentage of 0-100% (up to the hundredth decimal place) in how likely they are to get in the game. Feel free to use any reason at your disposal, but do note that you will be subjected to scrutiny for your own vote as people will have varying opinion on characters. At the end of the day, all votes for a character will be tallied up for an average score of how people think of their likelihood. Only one new character will be voted on at a time.

Along with a vote you are able to do two things; nominate character and predict the next character coming up. Nominations can be given to up to five characters at one time. They can be used however the person feels like using the nominations; whenever that is splitting them up into multiple characters or dumping it all into one. A character with the most nomination is up for their prediction the next day. Predictions are an opportunity for people to predict the score the character gets overall (not how likely they think a character is) and like voting for likelihood, can be voted from 0-100% (up to the hundredth decimal place). Whoever comes closest to their prediction being right will win five extra nominations for ten nominations the next day and if they hit the score correctly, they will gain ten extra nominations for fifteen nominations the next day.

Each character can also be rated in how much a person wants a character with the same scale as with predictions and voting for likelihood, though keep in mind that they will not effect placement nor do they have any rewards; they're just there for fun.

After a character has their round over, they will be retired for thirty days. After that, they are free to be re-voted on but have to reach 100 nominations before that happens. If that happens, then they go through predictions for their re-vote and when they are up, they don't replace the new character in, but rather compliment the new character. After a re-voted character day is over, the new score replaces the old one, although the old one will still be accessible for those curious. Note that if multiple characters reach 100 votes; the one who gets the most vote will go first.

This game will take place on two forums; Smashboards and GameFAQs. Because of the site limitation, each day, I will create a new thread on GameFAQs for a character. There will be three tallies; one for Smashboards, one for GameFAQs and one for both sites put together. Rules will be as similar as possible unless stated otherwise.
Rules:
There are some rules though.

First off, all rules on this site must be respected and exceptions are not made just because this is a forum game. Should be obvious, but worth repeating just in case. Here are some additions rules for this game:

1. Manga characters will not be rated and all characters must have a game on a Nintendo platform. Sakurai stated in Brawl that they would not get in that game. While Sakurai hasn't deconfirmed manga characters for this game, until proven otherwise they won't be rated. However, non-manga characters are eligible because they have not been explicitly ruled out yet (contrary to what people think, he has never said about a character having to originate from a video game). However, any character without an appearance on a Nintendo platform is ineligible and as such, won't be rated. Characters who have been confirmed are also not up for ratings.

However, the day before unconfirmed characters start to get rated will have the second part dedicated to giving thoughts on likelihood of the confirmed newcomers Villager, Mega Man and Wii Fit Trainer. They will not count, but are there to pass the time. The first part of the day will be solely nominating characters while the second part begins predictions for the character with the most nominations. This day will have two twelve-hours interval for both parts.

2. Counter votes are absolutely prohibited. Bias is inevitable when it comes to discussing characters, but anything in regards to countering votes to increase or decrease rating of the character will result in having the vote revoked and being unable to vote on characters for a week, no exception.

3. Flame wars are not allowed. Debates are encouraged on Rate Their Chances as after all, discussion on characters occur all the time, but remember that this is just a game. It is not the end of the world if you don't agree to an opinion and trying to win arguments on the Internet is not magically going to increase the likelihood of a character.

4. Never use this thread as an attempt to argue that a character is more likely/less likely because of this game. This is, in the end, a forum game and should be treated as such. It should not be taken into account when discussing character's odds. Again, winning arguments on the Internet doesn't magically make a character more likely.

5. If a character gets deconfirmed, they won't get rated again, no exception.

6. You may only vote on one site. Remember that this game spans across multiple websites. If you vote in one place, don't vote in another in order to increase/decrease likelihood of said character. So if you vote on GameFAQs, your vote should stay there. However, you are free to discuss on both here and GameFAQs in regards to the same character.

7. The following characters will not be voted on:
- Mario
- Donkey Kong
- Link
- Samus
- Yoshi
- Kirby
- Fox
- Pikachu
- Captain Falcon
- Luigi
- Ness
- Peach
- Bowser
- Zelda
- Diddy Kong
- Wario
- Meta-Knight
- King Dedede

Failure to adhere to these rules will result in your ability to participate in this thread being removed.
FAQs:
I don't know anything in regards to Sakurai's process to characters? Can I still participate?
Sure, but just make sure you know what you're talking about and get informed.

Once we put in our vote/prediction for a character, can we change them?
Of course, but only until that day ends. When the deadline has been met, all votes are permanent. However, it would much appreciated if you are going to edit that you make me aware of it so I don't miss it.

Are veterans and newcomers sharing nominations?
Correct. That means all five nominations are spread throughout potential veterans and newcomers.

Are veterans and newcomers voted at the same time?
No, only one character gets voted at a time, barring re-votes for previously voted characters.

Is there a limit to how many time a characters is re-voted?
Only limit is that a character can only receive re-votes once every thirty days and that is not factoring in confirmation/deconfirmation.

How long does this game last?
Until release of Super Smash Bros. Wii-U and 3DS. The game ends there.

What if DLC characters happen? Does the game continue?
No. Once the game gets released, the game ends, no exception.

Are we just rating characters? How about other things like stages, items, etc.?
Only if there's a demand and if I have time/someone else wants to do it, but I'll keep that in mind.

Anything I can do to help?
If I need help I'll ask for it, though you are certainly welcome to contribute by other means.

Look this character did great in Rate Their Chances! It's totally getting in!
Hahaha, no. There is a reason why I frown upon people using this forum game in arguments for or against a character.

How do you count up votes for Smashboards and GameFAQs:
I first count the amount of votes Smashboards and GameFAQs made separately and then add them together to see how many votes are overall when both sites are factored in. Afterwards, I then add every vote made on the website and divide by how many votes are made on that website. This gives me the percentage for the website. Afterwards, I divide how many votes are made on that website with the overall amount of votes made. I do this for Smashboards and GameFAQs. When both are done, I then combine both websites for the total score. This is probably confusing to most people and I'm not the best at explaining, but here's an example:
Code:
Palutena
 
Likelihood:
- Number of votes: 36 (Smashboards) + 18 (GameFAQs) = 54 (total)
- Votes on Smashboards: 50, 75, 75, 90, 90, 80, 70, 75, 68, 85, 90, 93, 85, 90, 65, 75, 40, 45, 85, 70, 80, 80,
  55, 82.47, 80, 90, 90, 90, 85, 60, 50, 85, 90, 85, 85, 65
    Individual ratings given by voters/how many votes were made = 76.35%
- Votes on GameFAQs: 80, 90, 50, 85, 30, 20, 87.5, 80, 80, 40, 85, 90, 85, 84, 64.01, 100, 30, 85
    Individual ratings given by voters/how many votes were made = 70.31%
 
36 (Smashboards)/54 (total) * 76.35% (likelihood score for Palutena on Smashboards) = 50.9%
18 (GameFAQs)/54 (total) * 70.31% (likelihood score for Palutena on GameFAQs) = 23.44%
 
50.9% + 23.44% = 74.34%
 
Same math applies to want ratings.
I need help with what to do? Can you give me a format that I could use?
Sure, here's the format below to help you out while rating:
Character #1: *Insert likelihood with possible reasoning*
*Insert want score*

Character 32: *Insert prediction for Character #2's score tomorrow. Not the same as voting for likelihood*

Nominations: *insert five nominations*
Veterans and Newcomers:

Veteran:
1. Mewtwo (Pokémon) (88.58% overall, 90.22% on Smashboards and 82.44% on GameFAQs in likelihood; 83.96% overall, 88.34% on Smashboards and 67.81% on GameFAQs in want)
2. Toon Link (The Legend of Zelda) (50.39% overall, 62.3% on Smashboards and 35.24% on GameFAQs for likelihood; 50.74% overall, 64.54% on Smashboards and 31.24% on GameFAQs in want)

(not being voted on)
Mario (Super Mario Bros.)
Bowser (Super Mario Bros.)
Donkey Kong (Donkey Kong)
Link (The Legend of Zelda)
Samus (Metroid)
Kirby (Kirby)
Fox (Star Fox)
Pikachu (Pokémon)
Pit (Kid Icarus)
Luigi (Super Mario Bros.)
Peach (Super Mario Bros.)
Diddy Kong (Donkey Kong)
Wario (Wario)
Zelda (The Legend of Zelda)
Meta-Knight (Kirby)
King Dedede (Kirby)
Captain Falcon (F-zero)
Ness (Earthbound)

Newcomers:
1. Little Mac (Punch-Out!!) (82.48% overall, 83.59% on Smashboards and 80.02% on GameFAQs for likelihood; 72.08% overall, 73.22% on Smashboards and 69.33% on GameFAQs)
2. Palutena (Kid Icarus) (74.34% overall, 76.35% on Smashboards and 70.31% on GameFAQs for likelihood; 76.31% overall, 77.22% on Smashboards and 70.83% on GameFAQs in want)
3. Ridley (Metroid) (70.51% overall, 71.1% on Smashboards and 68.93% on GameFAQs for likelihood; 79.22% overall, 78.73% on Smashboards and 80.81% on GameFAQs in want)
4. King K. Rool (Donkey Kong) (66.33% overall, 72.48% on Smashboards and 52.21% on GameFAQs for likelihood; 72.87% overall, 78.57% on Smashboards and 58.9% on GameFAQs in want)
5. Dixie Kong (Donkey Kong) (58.04% overall, 57.38% on Smashboards and 59.25% on GameFAQs for likelihood; 49.26% overall, 50.17% on Smashboards and 47.5% on GameFAQs in want)
6. Pac-Man (Pac-Man) (57.62% overall, 54.99% on Smashboards and 64.29% on GameFAQs for likelihood; 39.71% overall, 34.79% on Smashboards and 53.94% on GameFAQs in want)
7. Isaac (Golden Sun) (50.24% overall, 52.48% on Smashboards and 42.97% on GameFAQs for likelihood; 67% overall, 71.6% on Smashboards and 59.07% on GameFAQs in want)
8. Shulk (Xenoblade) (47.57% overall, 49.58% on Smashboards and 44.92% on GameFAQs for likelihood; 64.15% overall; 61.12% on Smashboards and 68.48% on GameFAQs)
9. Krystal (Star Fox) (27.41% overall, 32.86% on Smashboards and 14.3% on GameFAQs for likelihood; 47.99% overall, 49.54% on Smashboards and 40.45% on GameFAQs)

(not part of the ranking):
Mega Man (Mega Man) (73.7% in likelihood, 71.25% in want)
Villager (Animal Crossing) (41.5% in likelihood, 67.75% in want)
Wii Fit Trainer (Wii Fit) (5.38% in likelihood, 46.55% in want)
Nominations:
Veterans:
x74 Roy (Fire Emblem)
x66 Ice Climbers (Ice Climber)
x66 Jigglypuff (Pokémon)
x64 Lucario (Pokémon)
x56 Ike (Fire Emblem)
x50 Lucas (Mother/Earthbound)
x35 Pokémon Trainer (Pokémon)
x35 R.O.B. (Stack-Up/Gyromite)
x28 Sonic the Hedgehog (Sonic the Hedgehog)
x21 Ganondorf (The Legend of Zelda)
x9 Snake (Metal Gear)
x3 Marth (Fire Emblem)
x2 Mr. Game & Watch (Game & Watch)
x1 Olimar (Pikmin)

Newcomers:
x82 Lyn (Fire Emblem)
x81 Lucina (Fire Emblem)
x80 Simon Belmont (Castlevania)
x78 Takamaru (Nazo No Murasame Jo)
x78 Owain (Fire Emblem)
x76 Mii (Mii)
x71 Chrom (Fire Emblem)
x60 Lloyd Irving (Tales)
x56 Bandanna/Waddle Dee (Kirby)
x56 Robin (Fire Emblem)
x54 Tingle (The Legend of Zelda)
x51 Sandbag (Super Smash Bros.)
x46 Toad (Super Mario Bros.)
x45 Mach Rider (Mach Rider)
x44 Tharja (Fire Emblem)
x43 Starfy (The Legendary Starfy)
x36 Toon Zelda/Tetra (The Legend of Zelda)
x34 Scrooge McDuck (Ducktales)
x34 Rosalina (Super Mario Bros.)
x33 Ghirahim (The Legend of Zelda)
x33 Waluigi (Super Mario Bros.)
x29 Chibi-Robo (Chibi-Robo)
x28 Bowser Jr./Shadow Mario (Super Mario Bros.)
x26 Batallion Wars Rifle Grunts (Batallion Wars)
x25 Karate Joe (Rhythm Heaven)
x25 Geno (Super Mario Bros.)
x23 Masked Man (Mother/Earthbound)
x22 Saki Amamiya (Sin & Punishment)
x20 Rayman (Rayman)
x19 Lip (Panel De Pon)
x18 Daisy (Super Mario Bros.)
x17 Professor Layton (Professor Layton)
x17 King Boo (Super Mario Bros.)
x16 Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney)
x16 Nightmare (Soul Calibur)
x15 Micaiah (Fire Emblem)
x15 Petey Piranha (Super Mario Bros)
x10 Bayonetta (Bayonetta)
x10 Isa Jo (Sin & Punishment)
x10 Vaati (The Legend of Zelda)
x10 Tetra (The Legend of Zelda)
x10 Genesect (Pokémon)
x9 Wreck-It Ralph! (Wreck-It Ralph!)
x9 Kamek (Yoshi)
x9 Mike Jones (Startropics)
x8 Samurai Goroh (F-zero)
x8 N (Pokémon)
x8 Eevee (Pokémon)
x8 Tom Nook (Animal Crossing)
x8 Impa (The Legend of Zelda)
x7 Dillon (The Rolling Western)
x7 Imajin (Yumi Komo: Doki Doki Panic)
x7 Dark Samus (Metroid)
x7 Ray (Custom Robo)
x7 Ashley (WarioWare)
x6 Groose (The Legend of Zelda)
x6 Medusa (Kid Icarus)
x6 Zoroark (Pokémon)
x6 Skull Kid (The Legend of Zelda)
x6 Wonder-Eyes (Wonderful 101)
x5 Shantae (Shantae)
x5 Big Boss (Metal Gear)
x5 Kumatora (Mother/Earthbound)
x5 Hades (Kid Icarus)
x5 Hector (Fire Emblem)
x5 Sora (Kingdom Hearts)
x5 Gaston (Beauty and the Beast)
x5 Matthew (Golden Sun)
x5 Black Mage (Final Fantasy)
x3 Zip (FlingSmash)
x3 Prince Sable (For the Frog the Bell Tolls)
x3 Bomberman (Bomberman)
x2 Andy (Wars series)
x2 Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden)
x2 Rundas (Metroid)
x2 King Hippo (Punch-Out!!)
x2 Anna (Fire Emblem)
x2 9-Volt (WarioWare)
x1 Vaati (The Legend of Zelda)
x1 Midna (The Legend of Zelda)
x1 Tabuu (Super Smash Bros.)
x1 Tails (Sonic the Hedgehog)
x1 Knuckles (Sonic the Hedgehog)
x1 Little Joe (Punch-Out!!)
x1 K. K. Slider (Animal Crossing)
x1 Majora's Mask Link (The Legend of Zelda)
x1 Jimmy T. (WarioWare)
x1 Aeron (Pandora's Tower)
x1 Toon Zelda (The Legend of Zelda)
x1 Terra Bradford (Final Fantasy)
x1 Jin Kazame (Tekken)
Links and References:
Smashboards:
Day 1 - Part 1 = #2 - #52
Day 1 - Part 2 = #52 - #106
Day 2 = #106 - #152
Day 3 = #152 - #261
Day 4 = #261 - #352
Day 5 = #352 - #441
Day 6 = #441 - #485
Day 7 = #485 - #532
Day 8 = #532 - #637
Day 9 = #637 - #690
Day 10 = #690 - #776
Day 11 = #776 - #833
Day 12 = #833 -
Day 13 =
Day 14 =

GameFAQS:
Day 1 - Part 1
Day 1 - Part 2
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 8
Day 9
Day 10
Day 11
Day 12
Day 13
Music For All to Enjoy:

Update: Habanero has taken over as the thread owner during Super Smash Bros. Fan's absence.
 
D

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Day One: Nominations:

Before discussion and voting on characters can begin, one has the ability to use up to five votes on the characters of their choice. Vote for the one you consider worthy of trial by others. No mercy shall be spared upon those who enter.

Day 1, Part 1 will last until 1 PM on June 19th, 2013 since there is two parts and each part is separated into two parts; one for nominations and one for nomination, predictions, and giving out thoughts on likelihood of Mega Man, Villager and Wii Fit Trainer.
 

Banjodorf

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Wait, so we can only vote for the same character once, right? So I can use my five votes on my top 5?

Voting for:

Edited:

King K. Rool x3
Little Mac
Takamaru

No offense to Ridley and Palutena and Isaac, but they don't need my help.

That about covers it.
 
D

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Guest
Wait, so we can only vote for the same character once, right? So I can use my five votes on my top 5?

Voting for:

King K. Rool (If I'm doing this wrong, give all my votes to King K.)
Little Mac
Takamaru
Ridley
Palutena

That about covers it.
It's fine how you vote. If you want to put all five vote on King K. Rool, you are free to do so.

I'll think about nominating characters later.
 

Starphoenix

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Sure, why not:

Mewtwo
Sonic The Hedgehog
Shulk
King K. Rool
Ridley
 
D

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Putting this down as my nomination; Pac-Man x5

Mainly due to the very, very valid rumor of Pac-Man, Mii and Little Mac all getting in.
 

Holder of the Heel

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I'll go for my typical favorites.

Ghirahim (somebody has to do it)
Paper Mario
Palutena
Mii
Shulk
 
D

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Some obsessive should go back over the previous Rate Their Chances (where might the original threads be along with the results?) and compare what the "wisdom of the crowd" was compared to what actually happened.

You might be thinking, "well, if we rated a character 50%, they only either appeared or didn't appear, how do we know whether we were accurate? We'd be equally wrong either way."

The proper way to do this would be to compare the number of characters predicted at certain probabilities against the number of characters that did appear.

So, for example, if 20 characters were rated at ~75% chance, then if the "Rate Your Chances" thread was any good, somewhere around 13-17 of those characters would've made it in. If 10 are rated 50%, then around 4-6 of them should get in. And so on.

I'd be interested to know whether the original thread was any good, or if it was laughably wrong.
Well I did create this thread. So far, this thread got at least Mega Man right, who was in the 60% range if converting the decimal points to percentage, although it didn't rate the Villager or Wii Fit Trainer.

For the Top 10 comparision in GameFAQs for Brawl, this one got seven out of ten characters right in the Top 10 (not counting TP Zelda and Ganondorf). This one also got six out of ten characters right although this one did not run until release like the GameFAQs thread. However, keep in mind that the very high percentage were due to the assumption that there were a massive amount of candidates back in the day. Nowadays, it's generally agreed upon that there are only twenty to thirty realistic candidates for a spot (not counting the ones confirmed)

But in the end, this is more for fun than anything. In the end, not all characters we perceive as likely will get in and not all characters we consider unlikely will miss the cut. However, it is fun to rate likelihood nonetheless.

@Admiral Pit: Yep, you're doing it right.
 

Venus of the Desert Bloom

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Yeaaah! Glad to see it back in action.

Dixie Kong x 3
Palutena x 2
 

FalKoopa

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Voting for

Palutena x 2
King K. Rool x 2
Mewtwo

I wasn't here when the first one was going on, so I'm interested to see how this one turns out.
 

Erimir

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Well I did create this thread. So far, this thread got at least Mega Man right, who was in the 60% range if converting the decimal points to percentage, although it didn't rate the Villager or Wii Fit Trainer.

For the Top 10 comparision in GameFAQs for Brawl, this one got seven out of ten characters right in the Top 10 (not counting TP Zelda and Ganondorf). This one also got six out of ten characters right although this one did not run until release like the GameFAQs thread. However, keep in mind that the very high percentage were due to the assumption that there were a massive amount of candidates back in the day. Nowadays, it's generally agreed upon that there are only twenty to thirty realistic candidates for a spot (not counting the ones confirmed)

But in the end, this is more for fun than anything. In the end, not all characters we perceive as likely will get in and not all characters we consider unlikely will miss the cut. However, it is fun to rate likelihood nonetheless.
Yeah, looks like it was massively overestimating the chances of most of the unlikely characters and overestimating the number of characters generally.

But the numbers on there suggest that people were expecting 70+ characters (just add all the percentages up and you'll see what I mean), which I think even the most hopeful of fanboys would have had to admit wasn't going to happen. People are bad at estimating things, so a lot of things less than 1% get rounded up to 1%, 2%, 3%, 4% even though those numbers aren't really that low in the big scheme of things. Even if they had been told the actual number of characters in Brawl, I'd still expect their numbers to be adding up to significantly more than 35/39.

8 characters were rated as being between 45-55% likely... of which 0 got in. Not suggesting particularly accurate predictions.

The numbers should probably be normalized to some consensus estimate of the number of characters going to be in the game + apply some transformation that pushes the low-likelihood characters even lower (it doesn't appear to be the case that the characters predicted to have high likelihood were especially underestimated). Someone more stats geeky than me can do that, I have enough stats to do already.

Oh yeah, and I guess I'll nominate

Ridley x5
 

Opossum

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Nominations:
Jigglypuff x5

I just want to get the obvious vets out of the way.
 

Opossum

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You should totally call it Rate Their Chances 2: Electric Boogaloo.
 

Frostwraith

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Seems fun.

Palutena x 2
Ridley x 2
Yoshi

(Hope I'm not doing anything wrong...)
 
D

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Frostwraith, you're doing it right.

And before anyone ask, yes Uncle Scrooge is eligible to be on the list since Sakurai never said anything about a character having to originate in a video game, just that Manga characters couldn't appear in Brawl.
 
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