Cronoc
Smash Journeyman
I don't disagree with some of the talk of Bowser's strengths here, though I think you're being optimistic. But it's still not good enough in this game. For all his kill power, Bowser needs a read to get the kill. Whether it's a klaw, Bowser bomb, fsmash or usmash, all the big moves require the opponent to make a mistake. Good players know that Bowser needs that read, and will play as safe as possible when they're at high percents. Misjudge the read and a lead can quickly be lost. Minus that big read, you're looking at a dtilt kill around 110-120%, utilt kill around 130-140%, or an ftilt kill around 130-140%. Jabs after 150%. At that point, it's not that impressive looking anymore. And remember, Bowser can't really press his advantage state without committing to something punishable, so all that damage has to be honestly gained through reads or generally 10-15% at a time in neutral. A good number of characters exist who can kill around 70-90%, with safer moves than Bowser's.His neutral is actually good against people without a projectile, just because jab and pivot grab are hard to punish a lot of the time. Projectiles make it worse because his jab spacing becomes less effective, but at least he has the dash attack/grab 50/50 for burst.
He doesn't need consistent powershielding. He benefits more from powershielding than the other heavies because he can kill people pre100 with downb off it. Speaking of downb, perfect pivot jab is a super safe potential confirm into it.
Jab and pivot grab are so good that they're really the only things you need for bread and butter spacing. Other stuff like dashgrab, aerials etc. are just for mixups. He can actually space fairly safely whilst still posing some kind of threat. He also threatens shields with grab and sideb, both of which will lead to at least 18%, and the latter of which he can kill. The fact that he has several viable burst options that don't all lose to a single option makes him less read-dependent than you're making out because he can also function on coin-flips.
Also his damage on-hit is like the best in the game. Double-hit dtilt (low percents) is 25%. Bair is frame 9 and does 19%. Downb is frame 11 and does 24% if you land the initial pop-up. Firebreath is a free 10% or more in a lot of situations. Jab combo does 11%. A jab-grab combo can do around 25% if you pummel twice.
The fact that he doesn't have combos isn't a meaningful weakness because he does so much damage on-hit relative to his opponent's kill percent. Considering that he can kill reliably around 80-90% even Bowser's lowest-reward hits will do around 1/8th or 1/9th of the damage they need to get to kill percent. Bthrow with two pummels is almost a quarter of that.
This is not factoring in rage. He's the biggest exploiter of rage in the game because he's heavy, and he doesn't lose any of his kill options due it. It only enhances all of his already-good kill options. The fact that rage can allow you to kill someone at 60% off moves faster than frame 12 is a pretty big deal.
The characters Bowser faces in competitive play that don't have a projectile are far and few between. Sonic, Ike, Meta Knight, Captain Falcon, Wario... I'm already struggling to think of more off the top of my head. I'd count Luma as a projectile. I like to play Mewtwo for fun, and I've gotta say it's so much more relaxing than Bowser. Having a spam-able projectile puts everything on the opponent, it's much less mentally fatiguing to create that projectile wall than it is to successfully get through it. There's something to be said for how taxing it can be to simply get in on certain projectile users. Any mistakes are free damage, and many projectiles require me to perfect shield if I want to get the punish up close. The multi-hit projectiles are the worst. I wish there were less projectiles in Smash 4 in general, but it is what it is. The struggle is still real though.
Ignoring the projectile issue, I'm ok with Bowser's grounded neutral, besides the ridiculous endlag on his grab/pivot grab/flame breath and ftilt's dead spot. But when Bowser is at a disadvantage, he's really at a disadvantage. Many characters can cover their landing with projectiles, a quick and long lasting nair, a counter, a movement option (Wario's bike, etc). They have an airdodge that comes out faster than frame 4. They can stall, they have enough jumps or a good enough up b to and use attacks from under the ledge to clear a safe path. Bowser doesn't have any of these. When trying to land on the ground, he can try to klaw as he lands to catch a shielding opponent (if they roll this strategy is useless), or use dair (at best, dair can be used to trick and punish the opponent for shield grabbing right before landing), or use Bowser bomb. Or flame breath. Klaw loses to any hitbox, dair and Bowser bomb lose to shielding and rolling respectively. Any other aerial when landing will mean a punish. Whiffing the dair or bomb will be a punish. Flame breath had better be pointing towards the opponent when Bowser lands, or Bowser has a problem. Klaw will reset the neutral, and is basically a bluff to try to impress the opponent into letting us land. All these options are very telegraphed.
Offstage, he can Bowser bomb to the ledge when recovering high (mileage may vary depending on the matchup) and can use one aerial to defend himself, though it'll cost him his air jump to recover height. Bowser's up b leaves him incredibly vulnerable. Most opponents don't understand that a reversed up b to the ledge is a free fsmash. They don't realize what a character with a standing (not moving) counter can do to a fortress recovery. They mistime the dair spike and we get back to the stage. Most characters would never even be in that situation without having done something extremely stupid, but Bowser is always in that "don't get spiked" situation because he's Bowser. The only thing Bowser can do after using his second jump is try to time the activation of his up b so as to save himself from an edge-guard.
So yeah, on paper Bowser is fine, assuming the match never leaves the neutral or an advantage state for Bowser. But all that kill power and neutral stuff goes out the window when other characters get as much mileage as they do off of their bread and butters, and when Bowser has to land or recover. He could use some buffs. That the suggested buffs don't fix his problems landing/recovering is more because the character would have to be fundamentally reworked, and no one expects that. So in the meantime maybe they could at least fix his hitboxes and take a few endlag frames off some things...
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