w!zard
Smash Apprentice
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2008
- Messages
- 153
to many, science is a method for truth-finding. as more is uncovered by science, it is said the closer we come to the truth. i disagree with this view. i believe progress in science is measured ONLY by increasing predicative power. anything else that is gained through it is a coincidence.
in science, there is a problem of induction: no matter how many observations are made that are consistent with an explanation, the explanation cannot be verified. this is because there may be that one (or more) observation that we haven't found yet that is inconsistent with the explanation. since the sole purpose of observations is to disprove, nothing found through science can be verified to be the truth. this is not to say the truth is unreachable through science, only that it would not be known if it were found.
but truth-finding is not even a consideration in science. success is measured by achievements in predictions. the more an explanation is able to predict observations, the stronger it is said to be. there is no mention of “closeness to truth” because there is no method of evaluating truthfulness. it is very possible that while an explanation has high predicative power, it could be completely wrong. this can be demonstrated through a mathematical analogy: say the truth is described as y=x but the only points given (which represents observations) are (0,0) and (1,1). one could pick y=x, but y=x^2 is also correct, as is y^2=x, etc. but nothing can tell us which of the possible explanations is “more likely” to be true. all that can be done is prediction and disprovation. thus, science cannot and does not attempt to search for truth, but only for explanations that predict well.
in science, there is a problem of induction: no matter how many observations are made that are consistent with an explanation, the explanation cannot be verified. this is because there may be that one (or more) observation that we haven't found yet that is inconsistent with the explanation. since the sole purpose of observations is to disprove, nothing found through science can be verified to be the truth. this is not to say the truth is unreachable through science, only that it would not be known if it were found.
but truth-finding is not even a consideration in science. success is measured by achievements in predictions. the more an explanation is able to predict observations, the stronger it is said to be. there is no mention of “closeness to truth” because there is no method of evaluating truthfulness. it is very possible that while an explanation has high predicative power, it could be completely wrong. this can be demonstrated through a mathematical analogy: say the truth is described as y=x but the only points given (which represents observations) are (0,0) and (1,1). one could pick y=x, but y=x^2 is also correct, as is y^2=x, etc. but nothing can tell us which of the possible explanations is “more likely” to be true. all that can be done is prediction and disprovation. thus, science cannot and does not attempt to search for truth, but only for explanations that predict well.