Weekly Character Prediction Series on Kotaku (Feedback)

[GiantBoyDetective]

Hey Fellow Smash fans,

So for the last four or five months I've been doing a weekly article about a potential addition to the Smash Bros Wii U and 3DS roster over at Kotaku. The series as a whole has gotten over 150,000 views and I love writing it, but I was hoping to get some opinions from truly dedicated Smash enthusiasts like yourselves. I haven't been on Smash Boards for a couple years, so I'm a bit out of the loop.

Any thoughts, requests or general feedback would be fantastic. I know Kotaku doesn't have the best reputation, but I don't actually work for them, they just like to push my musing to the front page.

Take a look and let me know what you think!

Link > Challenger Approaching

Link >

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Your newcomer chances are pretty good from the ones ive seen. But game and watch, zero suit samus, are not going anywhere. And king k. rool has a lot better chances then u give him credit for

 

[Curmudgeon]

Some of the newcomers you have chosen are very unlikely, but considering the amount of articles I think its okay. Your cut characters lists are all terrible.

 

[Hong]

Link >

I like your style.

Anyway, interesting articles. I was pleasantly surprised to see you did one on Ray as well. Custom Robo is a bit obscure so I like that it was given attention.

If you wanted feedback, I would scale your numbers waaaay back so they are more meaningful. Like... someone such as Peach should be a 9, which would express between 90-99% chance of being in. You could comfortably bet a trillion dollars Peach will be in the game, but who knows: maybe someone who had the Peach data dropped their laptop in an open manhole, the back-up data revision that had Peach spontaneously combusts and the head office is struck with a meteor moments before they are ready to finish with the product but they MUST meet a deadline, and every other character is somehow just fine. I can wager my life that it won't happen, but characters that are actually already in the game are those I would give a 10.

So with that said, it is better if you have numbers too low than too high. If you keep giving out 6s, 7s, 8s and 9s, if you mathematically spread it out before long we are going to have a massively over-inflated roster. I think all of your characters have numbers that are too high.

 

[GiantBoyDetective]

Some of the newcomers you have chosen are very unlikely, but considering the amount of articles I think its okay. Your cut characters lists are all terrible.

Why are they terrible? I mean obviously it's my opinon, but I didn't think they were that bad. Who are your top ten to get cut? Not that you would want to get cut, that you think would actually get the boot from Big N.

Thanks for the feedback! :D

 

[GiantBoyDetective]

I like your style.

Anyway, interesting articles. I was pleasantly surprised to see you did one on Ray as well. Custom Robo is a bit obscure so I like that it was given attention.

If you wanted feedback, I would scale your numbers waaaay back so they are more meaningful. Like... someone such as Peach should be a 9, which would express between 90-99% chance of being in. You could comfortably bet a trillion dollars Peach will be in the game, but who knows: maybe someone who had the Peach data dropped their laptop in an open manhole, the back-up data revision that had Peach spontaneously combusts and the head office is struck with a meteor moments before they are ready to finish with the product but they MUST meet a deadline, and every other character is somehow just fine. I can wager my life that it won't happen, but characters that are actually already in the game are those I would give a 10.

So with that said, it is better if you have numbers too low than too high. If you keep giving out 6s, 7s, 8s and 9s, if you mathematically spread it out before long we are going to have a massively over-inflated roster. I think all of your characters have numbers that are too high.

Yeah if you look at the more recent articles I stopped doing a number all together. That being said I think I'm just a little too optimistic about the whole thing haha

Thanks for the feedback :D

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Why are they terrible? I mean obviously it's my opinon, but I didn't think they were that bad. Who are your top ten to get cut? Not that you would want to get cut, that you think would actually get the boot from Big N.

Thanks for the feedback! :D

In no particular order toon link, lucario, lucas, wolf, falco, Ike, snake, sonic, ROB, pokemon trainer.

Gannondorf, zero suit samus, and mr. game and watch all have an extremelly small chance of getting cut.

 

[GiantBoyDetective]

In no particular order toon link, lucario, lucas, wolf, falco, Ike, snake, sonic, ROB, pokemon trainer.

Gannondorf, zero suit samus, and mr. game and watch all have an extremelly small chance of getting cut.

But... 7 of your 10 were on my list. I don't think it qualifies as "terrible" Haha

 

[moneyfrenzy]

But... 7 of your 10 were on my list. I don't think it qualifies as "terrible" Haha

I wasnt the one who said terrible

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

The kicks you got every one correct except mr game and watch rob zero suit samus and ganondorf

And as for poo oooooh plllease ness is fine alone

 

[GiantBoyDetective]

I wasnt the one who said terrible

Whoops! My mistake.

 

[Curmudgeon]

Why are they terrible? I mean obviously it's my opinon, but I didn't think they were that bad. Who are your top ten to get cut? Not that you would want to get cut, that you think would actually get the boot from Big N.

Thanks for the feedback! :D

Sorry if I worded it wrong, it's not that your 10 cut chars list is terrible, it's just that in my opinion everyone that thinks there will be more than 3 cuts is out of his mind. Thinking there will be a lot of cuts is terrible.

 

[TumblrFamous]

For cutting the characters, all I can say is that Zero Suit Samus, R.O.B., Mr. Game & Watch, and Ganondorf are not going anywhere. ESPECIALLY Ganondorf. The rest are fine, but I don't think Wolf is the likeliest to be cut. And I would add Jigglypuff to the list. She was low priority in Brawl, so she'll most likely be low priority again.

 

[Hong]

Yeah, I don't think you can make strong predictions on who can be cut at such a large number. I can see characters from the middle of multi-generational series not making it like Ike or Lucario, though.

 

[DakotaBonez]

I've actually been keepin up with these articles, it's cool to get to meet the author on the smashboards.

On these boards, most of the support is for characters who appeal more in the west like
Ridley, K. Rool and Little Mac. There's a strong belief that the japanese only Nazo no Murasame Jo game will be getting a revival since it had an attraction in Nintendo Land, and having Takamaru the samurai would be an awesome addition to the roster.

We were all praying for Megaman, a prayer that was answered in the best way possible, but personally, I wanna see my little robro, Chibi-Robo get a chance to duke it out with him.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Why are they terrible? I mean obviously it's my opinon, but I didn't think they were that bad. Who are your top ten to get cut? Not that you would want to get cut, that you think would actually get the boot from Big N.

Thanks for the feedback! :D

Top ten? Brawl had 5 cuts with four of them being the most obvious clones (Roy, Dr. Mario, Pichu, and Young Link) and one being by far the worst designed character (Mewtwo). That being said, I don't think there will be as many cuts with Brawl given how there were no true clones and most of the "bad" characters in Brawl were hurt because of the defensive nature of the game, not their moveset. I'd honestly be surprised if there were more than 3 cuts this time around. If I had to expand past four though from most likely to leave in my opinion to least...

Lucario>Wolf>>Snake>>>>>Pokemon Trainer>Ike>Lucas... er, um... That's pretty much it in my eyes. I think a vast majority of characters that have unique movesets, have shown up in more than one game, and/or have been in the starting roster at some point are predominately safe with only a few exceptions that largely tie to the possibly of being replaced by someone more current from their respective franchise like in the case of Ike and PT.

 

[ChronoBound]

Top ten? Brawl had 5 cuts with four of them being the most obvious clones (Roy, Dr. Mario, Pichu, and Young Link) and one being by far the worst designed character (Mewtwo).

A lot of people were expecting Roy to return though. Also, I think you have Ike as being too low on the probability of being cut list. I think Lucario is actually more likely to return than Ike is, seeing as there is no current face to the Pokemon franchise that has the same abilities and "feel" that Lucario has, whereas Chrom would be very feasible in taking all of Ike's moveset and giving off the same kind of vibe in terms of a character.

In terms of characters from Brawl being cut, it goes likes this:

Snake>Toon Link (likely to be swapped with another child Link if he is cut)>Sonic (we don't know Sakurai's stance on returning guests, though I imagine Sega would have an interest in him coming back> Ike>Lucario>Lucas>Wolf>Pokemon Trainer>everyone else is pretty much safe (unless the Ice Climbers somehow get bumped out due to 3DS hardware restrictions).

So to recap:
1. Snake
2. Toon Link
3. Sonic
4. Ike
5. Lucario
6. Lucas
7. Wolf
8. Pokemon Trainer

 

[MasterOfKnees]

So to recap:
1. Snake
2. Toon Link
3. Sonic
4. Ike
5. Lucario
6. Lucas
7. Wolf
8. Pokemon Trainer

I don't think the 3rd parties are that low. Sakurai went way out of his way to include Sonic in Brawl to please fan demand, no way he's just gonna drop him now, especially when Sega and Nintendo are so closely tied now. Same for Snake, though he's much less likely than Sonic to return he's still one of the most unique characters on the roster in terms of playstyle, and we know Sakurai puts much emphasis on having many different kinds of characters on the roster. And again I think people are underestimating Pokemon Trainer, he wasn't only on the box art of Brawl for promotion, not only is he also the single most unique character in the game, but he carries the Pokemon which fans love more than both Mewtwo and Pikachu.

I'm personally expecting 5 cuts, so in order I put them like this: Toon Link, Lucario, Lucas, Ike and Wolf.

Toon Link suffers from being the cloniest character and is basically just Link with another artstyle.

Lucario suffers from being far less popular than most of the roster due to him not being as much a fan favorite as the rest of the Pokemon crew, and right now in the Pokemon world he's just being treaten as any other Pokemon, and unlike Jigglypuff he doesn't have as big a veteran status to save him, so he's easily replaced.

Lucas suffers from being Japan only and being a semi-clone, plus he's part of one of the least popular franchises in the game.

Ike is part of a franchise which is the definition of a flavor of the week series, and other than that he suffers from the same things as Lucario.

Wolf is more or less on here because of his low priority as a newcomer in Brawl, which will probably get even lower as nothing but a veteran who's role is being the least popular semi-clone of Fox.

 

[Hong]

I agree with ChronoBound's list in form if you take it as its face value: character who are most likely to be removed in order. He never said that all of those characters will be cut, so the positioning seems pretty reasonable.

If they don't want to deal with Konami about licensing (a PAINFUL process, even if they just say "yes"), they can just as easily add a new character who replicates the same gameplay. Personal friendships between developers aside, it is pretty easy to see them giving the MGS series the finger.

In my opinion, unless they think of something I hope Sonic is booted. The lamest moveset I have seen in this series by far... taking the throne from Jigglypuff with relative ease. Yeah, I know, it is Sonic and he spins. It is still boring as **** when that is half of his moves. If you can't come up with anything better, don't include him in the game.

 

[ChronoBound]

Lucario was still a very well received character. There was no one in Brawl that was maligned like Pichu and Dr. Mario in Melee (and possibly Young Link) were. I think even if Lucario has less slightly less popularity than Ike among Smash Bros. fans, he is in a better situation overall since there is no moveset successor to Lucario in the same vein that Toon Link and Ike have one (Classic Link and Chrom).

I agree with ChronoBound's list in form if you take it as its face value: character who are most likely to be removed in order. He never said that all of those characters will be cut, so the positioning seems pretty reasonable.

Personally, the only two characters I feel are iffy about returning (assuming time constraints are not an issue) are Snake and Toon Link. I don't think Kojima is interested in seeing Snake return for Smash 4, especially considering he gave a pretty nonchalant flimsy reason when asked years later why he wanted Snake in Brawl so much (it was so that his young son could play a game with a character that his father made). Seeing that Konami has not even bothered to make a MGS5 port for the Wii U despite the game being a 2014 PS3/360 title, I can see why on Nintendo end they would not approach Kojima about Snake's return either.

Toon Link's return basically hinges upon whether Sakurai wants to choose A Link To The Past/A Link Between Worlds design for "child" Link instead of Toon Link. I think we will most likely be getting a "child" Link again in Smash 4 like we did in Brawl and Melee.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

In my opinion, unless they think of something I hope Sonic is booted. The lamest moveset I have seen in this series by far... taking the throne from Jigglypuff with relative ease. Yeah, I know, it is Sonic and he spins. It is still boring as **** when that is half of his moves. If you can't come up with anything better, don't include him in the game.

Sonic has lots of moveset potential which wasn't used, but my guess is that because he was added in so late he got an extremely rushed moveset. And hey, Jigglypuff at least has the funniest and greatest move in Rest

 

[GiantBoyDetective]

Sorry if I worded it wrong, it's not that your 10 cut chars list is terrible, it's just that in my opinion everyone that thinks there will be more than 3 cuts is out of his mind. Thinking there will be a lot of cuts is terrible.

But didn't Sak say that the roster would be the same size if not smaller than Brawl? If they only cut three then the roster is set, as they have revealed three new characters. I Feel like they'll cut maybe 7 or 8. But I would obviously love it if I just heard that wrong and they have a bigger roster.

 

[GiantBoyDetective]

Double post. Drat. IGNORE.

 

[Curmudgeon]

But didn't Sak say that the roster would be the same size if not smaller than Brawl? If they only cut three then the roster is set, as they have revealed three new characters. I Feel like they'll cut maybe 7 or 8. But I would obviously love it if I just heard that wrong and they have a bigger roster.

No he never said that, he has said that "they're focusing more on quality over quantity" and that "they can't bring back every character that has appeared in the games". Sakurai never said anything regarding the actual roster size.

 

[SonicMario]

In my opinion, unless they think of something I hope Sonic is booted. The lamest moveset I have seen in this series by far... taking the throne from Jigglypuff with relative ease. Yeah, I know, it is Sonic and he spins. It is still boring as **** when that is half of his moves. If you can't come up with anything better, don't include him in the game.

Sonic isn't going anywhere, especially for the reasons of lack of moveset use. And like Wariofan1 said he was put in the game late so they have an excuse for having a bit of a rushed moveset. This time they know Sonic was a VERY, VERY, VERY popular addition (This reason alone is something most people think Sonic has less then 80% chance of returning ignore. Massive popularity was why he got in Brawl in the first place). So I wouldn't be surprised he was among the top of the list upon selecting for returns

I think they could of very well easily got the rights again when Nintendo and Sega made that deal for 3 Exclusive Sonic games.

"This is Nintendo, Sega. We want to make sure your mascot Sonic the Hedgehog is back for the next game. He boosted interest in the previous game and was generally well-recieved as an addition from a majority of those who bought the game. Will you allow us to return him to Smash Bros.?"

"Of course! In the mean time, we'll develop three Nintendo exclusive Sonic games. A new platformer, the next of the monetarily successful Mario & Sonic Olympic games, and [REDACTED [since we don't know what it is yet :V]"

"Splendid! Pleasure doing business with you"

__________________________________________________

Anyway, GiantBoyDetective. Out of your newcomer choices I'd like K. Rool, Little Mac and Waluigi most of all of them. Some are ones I'd be completely fine with also include Shulk and Balloon Fighter. The others I either find a bit eh or at least unlikely. I'd raise my eyebrows a bit if they actually thought replacing Ganondorf with anything other then a different incarnation of Ganon was a good idea. If Ghirahim has to be in I'd rather he'd "replace" Toon Link's spot as the fourth character.

 

[moneyfrenzy]

yeah the president of sega said something like "We would love to have sonic in the next smash bros, but in the end it is up to nintendo"

 

[Fatmanonice]

A lot of people were expecting Roy to return though. Also, I think you have Ike as being too low on the probability of being cut list. I think Lucario is actually more likely to return than Ike is, seeing as there is no current face to the Pokemon franchise that has the same abilities and "feel" that Lucario has, whereas Chrom would be very feasible in taking all of Ike's moveset and giving off the same kind of vibe in terms of a character.

In terms of characters from Brawl being cut, it goes likes this:

Snake>Toon Link (likely to be swapped with another child Link if he is cut)>Sonic (we don't know Sakurai's stance on returning guests, though I imagine Sega would have an interest in him coming back> Ike>Lucario>Lucas>Wolf>Pokemon Trainer>everyone else is pretty much safe (unless the Ice Climbers somehow get bumped out due to 3DS hardware restrictions).

So to recap:
1. Snake
2. Toon Link
3. Sonic
4. Ike
5. Lucario
6. Lucas
7. Wolf
8. Pokemon Trainer

I did mention that it was only my opinion, right?

 

[ChronoBound]

I did mention that it was only my opinion, right?

Yeah, and I was giving mine.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Yeah, and I was giving mine.

Yeah but you did it in a way to suggest my opinion was wrong despite the fact we're both going off of conjecture and speculation.

Add in: It was a matter of telling me how I should have had my list and then saying "it goes like this" in a matter of fact fashion. Perhaps you didn't mean to word it this way but that's how it came off as.

 

[ChronoBound]

Yeah but you did it in a way to suggest my opinion was wrong despite the fact we're both going off of conjecture and speculation.

Add in: It was a matter of telling me how I should have had my list and then saying "it goes like this" in a matter of fact fashion. Perhaps you didn't mean to word it this way but that's how it came off as.

You read into things too much. I was just saying why I disagreed with your opinion.

 

[Parasol]

Neat article. I'm glad you're having fun writing it--it must make up for the swarm of idiotic replies and posts you get regarding your "****ing terrible choices, you idiot." I disagree with your cuts on Lucario, Mr. Game & Watch, Zero Suit Samus, and Ganondorf. I don't understand why so many people are so quick to shove Lucario out the door; this is a completely individual character with a unique mechanic unlike anyone in the roster (percentile boost), a solid representation of an entire generation of the Pokemon franchise, and a character with still a solid fan base to date. The fact that his and Mewtwo's neutral specials are the same is irrelevant--look at Bowser and Charizard. Besides, between the two mentioned, I'd say Lucario has higher chances than Mewtwo, since his model could have been so easily exported from Brawl and tweaked, whereas they'd have to start from scratch with Mewtwo. Not to mention, Sakurai also very recently stated that they are only considering the inclusion of Mewtwo. As for Mr. Game & Watch, he's earned his place as the first true "what the ****" character in Smash and is a veteran at that. I flat out just disagree with the other cuts mentioned.

What I do agree on, however, is the unlikelyhood of K. Rool. Despite my love for him, it's solid thinking that his inclusion would be rather difficult. Microsoft aren't so flexible. Especially with Dixie Kong being featured in the upcoming Donkey Kong Country--not to mention her planned inclusion in Brawl--I'd say she has the higher chances of being our third Donkey Kong representative. Ridley I'm on the fence about. Sakurai has said this his inclusion would be near impossible, yet lo and behold, we also have Villager after he's so clearly stated that we should not expect a character like him to show up. I think that Sakurai pays more attention to the fans than we give him credit for; I wouldn't be surprised to see playable Ridley in the end. Some of your other newcomers are a little out there. Well, way out there.

That's really all I want to comment on. Good fun.

 

[Dark Phazon]

@Parasol - Nintendo have the rights to all DK IP's including the Kremlings.

It was Miyamoto's choice to not include the Kremlings in DKCR.

K.Rool was in Superstar Sluggers.

They are no boundries to K.Rool's inclusion only Sakurai.

And i do think Dixie has a slightly better shot but K.Rool deserves it more and i want him wayy more. I dont want dixie at all....gimmie Cranky instead...

Am i the only one who has a weired feeling they are gonna throw Funky in there? DK Clone?

 

[mimgrim]

You really think Ganondorf is going to get cut? o.O He has like a 99.99% chance of returning, please tell me the reasons aren't for him being a clone. To lazy to read articles. lol

 

[GiantBoyDetective]

You really think Ganondorf is going to get cut? o.O He has like a 99.99% chance of returning, please tell me the reasons aren't for him being a clone. To lazy to read articles. lol

I just feel like since he wasn't a ket player in the last big Zelda title (Skyward Sword) he might not return for this round. What makes you so sure he WILL be back Haha

 

[GiantBoyDetective]

I've actually been keepin up with these articles, it's cool to get to meet the author on the smashboards.

On these boards, most of the support is for characters who appeal more in the west like
Ridley, K. Rool and Little Mac. There's a strong belief that the japanese only Nazo no Murasame Jo game will be getting a revival since it had an attraction in Nintendo Land, and having Takamaru the samurai would be an awesome addition to the roster.

We were all praying for Megaman, a prayer that was answered in the best way possible, but personally, I wanna see my little robro, Chibi-Robo get a chance to duke it out with him.

Thanks for the kind words. Chibi Robo is certainly on my list, in fact in fact he maaaaaaay be featured next week :D

 

[mimgrim]

I just feel like since he wasn't a ket player in the last big Zelda title (Skyward Sword) he might not return for this round. What makes you so sure he WILL be back Haha

Didn't SS explain why Ganondorf is there in the first place? He is the reincarnation of Demise and will always be there to impede the future incarnations of Link and Zelda. And why does it matter that he wasn't a key part of SS? SS was basically the thing to expalin why things are as they are in the Zelda universe and Ganon is still the main Antagonist of the LoZ games. Because he wasn't in the most recent game is a BS reason, espically when the recent game explains why Ganondorf is there in the first place. .-.

 

[Hippopotasauce]

I just feel like since he wasn't a ket player in the last big Zelda title (Skyward Sword) he might not return for this round. What makes you so sure he WILL be back Haha

Let's assume Super Mario 3D Land's main villain was Wart, not Bowser.
Do you replace Bowser?

 

[Parasol]

@Parasol - Nintendo have the rights to all DK IP's including the Kremlings.

I just spent, like, 30 minutes searching the web to try and prove you wrong, but apparently, you're right.

What in the flying **** Nintendo? I thought it was due to licensing issues that they had to make him "Pharoh K. Rool" in the sluggers game and why he hasn't appeared in much content since. Use the damn guy, ya idiots.

 

[GiantBoyDetective]

Didn't SS explain why Ganondorf is there in the first place? He is the reincarnation of Demise and will always be there to impede the future incarnations of Link and Zelda. And why does it matter that he wasn't a key part of SS? SS was basically the thing to expalin why things are as they are in the Zelda universe and Ganon is still the main Antagonist of the LoZ games. Because he wasn't in the most recent game is a BS reason, espically when the recent game explains why Ganondorf is there in the first place. .-.

I'm just saying that I could see him being left out for the Ghirahim/Demise character. I know he's the biggest villain in Hyrule history, but that doesn't mean he has a guaranteed spot. The Zelda models for Brawl were based on the most recent title at the time, TP, so I could happen that they want to focus in the SS crew. What I'd really like is for them to include both Ganondorf and Ghirahim. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

I agree that G-dorf probably won't be scrapped, but I still think there's a decent chance it could happen.

 

[GiantBoyDetective]

Let's assume Super Mario 3D Land's main villain was Wart, not Bowser.
Do you replace Bowser?

Well seeing as we know Bowser is already in the game... Haha. I can't see them replacing Bowser for the sheer fact that he is so well known. Ganondorf is obviously well known too, but no where near as much as Bowser. Bowser has been present in hundreds of games and Ganondorf (The guy spesifically, Not Ganon) has been in three games (aside from Smash titles). I like him and I want him to stay, I'm just saying he has better than a 1% possibility of not showing up.