Wam's Chaos Game Thread

[Swiss]

I’d go Huery Bessie if I had to guess right now

 

[Sabrar]

Don't be too excited about it, it's mostly the link he has with you with some minor other stuff thrown in.

 

[LaserGuy]

LaserGuy: Your reasoning to show that was a pressure vote is weak. I don't believe it was pressure, nor did you need to. Why did you feel the need to pressure him?

I already answered this question in #255. Are you even reading my responses? Why do you think a pressure vote needs justification?

 

[ranmaru]

I did read it before posting that in fact. Your answer seems like a cop out.

 

[ranmaru]

I also think that you are using my attack to omgus me since you have no strong scum reads.

 

[HeuryAlone]

HeuryAlone HeuryAlone since Tattertot has played with you, admittedly in a different form, do you have any meta opinions on his current play?

From memory, tattertot tends to observe more as town and talk more as mafia. Tattertot has actually chatted more than I expected they would on d1.

 

[ranmaru]

Tattertot ETA on your LaserGuy read with reasoning?

 

[Tattertot]

Tattertot ETA on your LaserGuy read with reasoning?

Im feeling null on laserguy. Hes been active and definitely throwing questions out but that's it. I don't know. Not a great read but yeah.

 

[ranmaru]

Thanks. Can you explain why you forgot to include him?

 

[Tattertot]

I just missed him. Apparently he hasn't caught my eye one way or the other so I kissed him among the 8 other people

 

[Tattertot]

Missed* him. sorry. Auto correct.

 

[ranmaru]

I'm currently fine with Jack. I have indie suspicions on Wiisp. I want UP to come back but given there is no train on him I don't really expect much. I'm fine with a Ninja lynch but generally don't understand the need to change my vote every hour.

One thing I learned from Crossover is that there is absolutely no need for a rush 36 hours before deadline. If it comes down to you and Ninja I'll probably vote for Ninja. But that's still a long way away.

 

[ranmaru]

Curious why you voted Heury despite your belief here Sabrar. What is different here?

 

[Sabrar]

There is less contradiction here than you portray. I had my vote on Swiss for the entire day before that and I already considered changing it as yeeting the only Vig-claim is not always good.

 

[ranmaru]

Why did you change your vote to Heury?

 

[Sabrar]

Can you really not see it?

 

[ranmaru]

Answer the question.

 

[Sabrar]

I perceived a lie in his answers.

 

[ranmaru]

Ok. Now why did you vote him at that time rather than waiting near deadline, and expressing support instead.

 

[Sabrar]

Why would I need to wait until deadline?

 

[ranmaru]

Because of your expressed belief of not rushing.

 

[HeuryAlone]

I perceived a lie in his answers.

What's the lie? I don't see it.

 

[Sabrar]

Curious why you point out Sabrar's #27 as a classic tell but for Heury's #22 you just go 'huh'.

Probably because I wanted to tunnel Sabrar.

Frankly I haven't a clue can't remember.

Okay, I'm gonna ask this directly then: why didn't you have the same level of suspicion towards heury, who (at that point) seemed to do the same?

^ Probably did,

I'm sure I called HeuryAlone out in his first post. He's the only person I've voted

You mean this?

That doesn't qualify as "calling out", especially when compared to the Sabrar part of the same post:

And then you never brought that up again, not even when you voted Heury. Why?
Vote Swiss

I'm voting the dude and he's about to be lynched, what more do you want?

Bizarre mindset

Why are giving you giving different answers to the same question?

 

[Sabrar]

Because of your expressed belief of not rushing.

And who says I was rushing? I explained to you already that I wanted to change my vote, this was a good place to do so.

What's the lie? I don't see it.

Swiss said that in #115. You 'cleared' me in #32. Get your timelines right.

You claimed a post-hoc answer. We already went over this.

 

[Swiss]

Why are giving you giving different answers to the same question?

I don’t see the contradiction.

Regardless if the case is empty - quote the posts anyway ta

 

[Swiss]

My reads are still the same as my last reads list.

 

[Swiss]

Huery you might as well claim

 

[Sabrar]

Huery you might as well claim

What is this? Due to the setup only the Vig-claim is guaranteed to be Town and you already took that spot. What do you expect to learn from the claim that would change your mind?

 

[Swiss]

Why are you against claiming? What value do you see in limiting information town can gather?

HeuryAlone claim please

 

[Sabrar]

You're getting this early so that it doesn't eat into my weekend. Long rambling, read at your own risk. Everything expressed here is a personal opinion, I do not claim to know why a particular content was posted, just what impression it gives me. Also, I'm doing this in Notepad, I will include post-numbers but not links, sorry about that. With that out of the way:

Let's start with my obligatory D1 tunnel who happens to be Swiss here.

Spoiler

Swiss starts the game with #11, a question about how the Vig works. We have 4 main possibilities:

1. Swiss is Vig. The question is genuine because the setup does not explicitly say whether it is Day-Vig or Night. Nobody reacts, he does not get a public answer so he probably asked the mod in private after some time.
My main issue with this scenario is that we received our role-pm well in advance, so why did he not ask this in private immediately upon seeing the role he got? Why wait a day and draw attention to it?

2. Swiss is Vig, but the question is not genuine. He's doing a play by claiming it either because he wants Doc-protection or because he wants to trick scum into thinking that the Vig can't be him (or possibly another reason that didn't occur to me).
In the first case he would be able to admit the purpose when I ask him about it #169 and it wouldn't be such a secret that he would need to ignore me constantly.
In the second case he should be on the lookout precisely for the very obvious role-fishing that I'm doing but he somehow never raises this point against me.

3. Swiss is scum. He tests the waters with #11, hoping to draw out a comment that would indicate to him the actual Vig if it exists. If questioned later it is easy to brush off #11 by claiming it was to protect the actual Vig or draw the NK to a VT or anything similar. Also there's a good 50% chance that no Vig exists in which case he can continue the gambit.
In this case he can't actually answer my question in #169 and is forced to ignore it.

4. Swiss is Town but not Vig. His reason for doing the gambit is something already described above. Again, he should be interested in my role-fishing but is not. Also, this is a very risky play because an inexperienced player might counter-claim Vig or an experienced player who is actual Vig (and has more restraint than me to not to get into a fight) might try to shoot him which has negative expected value even if he gets saved by Doc.

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“Accuse Your Enemy Of What You Are Doing, As You Are Doing It To Create Confusion”
This idea or one of its many variations is attributed to a lot of famous/infamous people in history, it has been an effective tool in propaganda. 2 examples from this game:

• in #88 he says I'm 'very keen to character assassinate'. People know that I don't do personal insults, I'm not the one who calls the other to have an 'inflated ego' (#114), or calling them a 'peacock' (#114, #264).
• he accuses me of jumping to a conclusion (again #114, in response to me saying that he is not interested in my answers). What he fails to acknowledge is that he did the same in #67-#68 where he came to a conclusion before giving me any chance to respond. Also, as it turns out my conclusion was right, he really wasn't interested in what I had to say, as evidenced by #88, #92 and #124. To reiterate for the final time, he never answered my #93 and #120, he just brushed it off.

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Last stop is #158 where he asks what a Ninja does. I might be reading too much into this but how does this question come from an experienced player and why does it come 2 days after game has started? Is Swiss that much unaware of the setup? Why did he not ask what an 'Atheist' was? The top 2 results in Google link to wiki.mafiascum.net and mafiauniverse.com and are both very different from the sense that I used it in my first post. To me this all is inconsistent with a town player who is genuinely interested in the setup.

Let's talk about ranmaru next.

Spoiler

In #122 he has issues with how I'm not pushing Swiss hard. We know from the many examples he brought against LaserGuy that he has either notes or good memory of other players' (perceived) style, so why does he not remember that we had this discussion before, for example in Oasis Mafia. I simply don't push as hard as I used to, mainly because I'm spending less time on the game than previously. The same goes for the point regarding me not making reads early. Last but no least we have "Yet scumleaning me for it, when he knows I'll be able to deliver, is weak." I feel this is an overreaction, I know that he is able to deliver later but why can't I form an opinion based on the fact that he hasn't done it so far?

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The point where I got my first impression of a buddy-buddy relationship with Swiss was #122-#130. Obviously when you have only 2 people contributing then the result will be a similar conversation, especially when they had previous history. However the whole tone of that seemed too casual to me, with no tension between 2 players who should be questioning the other's motives.

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Finally we jump to #216. At first I thought that scum had little reason to shake up the status quo, except if the status quo would likely lead to their demise. So if ranmaru were to be scum then his partner would be Heury who was in most danger to be yeeted. However he backtracked quite quickly on Swiss in #250 and #254 and what I also find interesting is that he presented the connection between LaserGuy and Tattertot as the main reasons, something he did not look into between LaserGuy and Swiss in #216.

I will stop here, I might be forgetting some minor points but nothing crucial I think.

 

[Swiss]

what the **** is an atheist

 

[Swiss]

Sabrar I don’t know what role fishing you think you’re doing but you certainly aren’t role fishing in any way I go for.

Why use a knife when blunt force trauma is much more fun.

Speaking of which Huery have you claimed yet

 

[Swiss]

And Sabrar how do you scum read Ranmaru when he’s been happy to throw a degree of sus at almost every player

He’s far too all over the place and unreliable to be scum

 

[ranmaru]

You scumleaned me for something null. I never saw an association between Swiss and Laser at the time. I think Tattertot and Laser both have connections to each other, and I individually suspect them. With Swiss and Laser I simply scum read them individually at the time.

Swiss I have trouble reading correctly, as I have said my confidence level in reading him is low. I have not played with him in years.

 

[Swiss]

That’s because I haven’t played in ten years Ran

 

[Sabrar]

And Sabrar how do you scum read Ranmaru when he’s been happy to throw a degree of sus at almost every player

He’s far too all over the place and unreliable to be scum

Why do you think that scum never puts sus on their buddy?

 

[Swiss]

You misinterpret

Scum don’t throw this much sus out in general - especially a player like Ran.

 

[Sabrar]

Except if they want to emulate their town-meta.

 

[Swiss]

Wifom and implies a scum can convincingly emulate their own town play

 

[Sabrar]

Everything is wifom.