Wam's Chaos Game Thread

[Deadbananas]

Mafia have no way of avoiding or outplaying the vig shot

What am I missing here

I think mafia could rand a doctor, but I don't see anything else.

 

[Sabrar]

Well from what little I know of Swiss, he’s not a newbie. And since he’s a dog, I’ll chalk this up to just some puppy screwing around, and not an awkward attempt at rolefishing.

Usually you're very quick to jump on people for any attempt at rolefishing. I highly doubt that Swiss being a dog was your only reason not to do that here.

I surprisingly do not have any strong scum leans yet but will think about it tonight.

Why do you expect to have a strong scumlean so early?

Mafia have no way of avoiding or outplaying the vig shot

What am I missing here

Vig-shot has a 50% chance of existing in the first place. Also it can be Doctor-ed, either by scum!Doc or in an unlikely scenario by town!Doc.

 

[Swiss]

Bit more than 50% I can promise you that bud

 

[ranmaru]

Deadbananas On your reconsideration of Tatterkot, I think you have to consider how him not reacting to my vote while having no online experience makes sense from a town standpoint. If you come to him being town, then you must replace him with another player. Who would that be? I think anyone has the ability to convince ourselves they may not be scum but fact is two people have received mafia pm's.

 

[ranmaru]

I am starting to see the possibility of Heury being scum since he has fallen off and has yet to answer your #64. If he flips scum I would drop Sabrar.

 

[Swiss]

^ vote then

 

[ranmaru]

Unvote; Vote: Heury

 

[ranmaru]

L-2.

 

[Sabrar]

Swiss : help me understand why you would openly claim Vig in this setup.

 

[Swiss]

Well that's all from me today. I'll keep an eye on the thread.

 

[Tattertot]

Sometime later today or tomorrow morning Ill post some town and mafia suspect and why until then though Im just going to watch the chat.

 

[Deadbananas]

Deadbananas On your reconsideration of Tatterkot, I think you have to consider how him not reacting to my vote while having no online experience makes sense from a town standpoint. If you come to him being town, then you must replace him with another player. Who would that be? I think anyone has the ability to convince ourselves they may not be scum but fact is two people have received mafia pm's.

Yah, the vote thing is the biggest red mark I have on anybody in this whole game rn.

I didnt respond immediately to his vote on me either because its day one and things are still getting going.

The response doesn't really alleviate my concerns at all and still leaves me thinking scum. Which is why I think it'd be very odd that the mafia mate would coach them about a pfp, but not a response to the actual pushes on them. That has me hung up a bit on him. There are a few reasons I could see for a new town to not comment on the vote, but they aren't the reasons Tatter brought up in his defense. He's still on my scum list, but I'm hoping to get a better read of him as a player working off his own initiative and evaluate from there. This should let me get into some other suspects myself and not get tunnel vision. Ultimately, there's still enough null area in my list to fit the amount of mafia in the game.

 

[LaserGuy]

Anyway recap

1) Laserguy town
2) Bessie town
3) Sabrar scumlean maybe town dont much mind
4) Somitomi who
5) Heury Alone scumlean
6) Ranmaru eh
7) tattertot town
8) Deadbananas town
9) Swiss werewolf

I like this recap from Swiss. He seems to genuinely trying to work things out. Going to move him to townlean. Which means I probably have too many townreads and need to start reading back.

Sabrar seems to be Peacocking so we can let him off this for now. Feels like that guy in the pub who's ready for a fight when you tap him then you ask him for the time and he's like "Oh" and deflates. Made me reconsider Ran so + on that

FWIW, this is very typical of Sabrar. We have had a number of these sort of altercations in the past. I will say that this is more likely coming from Town!Sabrar. Sabrar tends to be cagier as scum and avoid confrontation if he can help it.

Also don't know why Swiss is upset I agree with his Sabrar thoughts.

Which parts of Swiss' points on Sabrar did you agree with? You said that you got a bad vibe on him but didn't have anything specific to point to.

 

[LaserGuy]

There was supposed to be an unvote in there but it got dropped when I changed pages. I hate this site sometimes.

Unvote

 

[Deadbananas]

LaserGuy since you also know Sabrar well, could you also give me your thoughts on this?

I'm tempted to give Sabrar town points for being uncooperative here. I feel like scum would try to be a bit more appeasing.
bessie is this typical behavior for Sabrar in either alignment to be not overly cooperative?

 

[ranmaru]

Still interested in your reads list Laser if you have the time.

 

[LaserGuy]

LaserGuy since you also know Sabrar well, could you also give me your thoughts on this?

I think being uncooperative is probably NAI for Sabrar. That's just how he is.

Still interested in your reads list Laser if you have the time.

I'm starting to reread now, but probably I won't get to writing the full reads until this evening.

 

[LaserGuy]

Just want to throw out there that up until this point I have not received any coaching. I have been offered help and guidance if I felt I need it but haven't felt I need it yet if ever. Mafia is mafia. Online or not it very alike.

Hmm... Thinking about this more, this post feels so weirdly innocent that I'm really struggling to see Tattertot saying something like this as scum. Like he doesn't even realize that if he were mafia he would be able to talk with his partner at this point.

Vote: somitomi

I'm not opposed to the heury push, either.

 

[ranmaru]

Lowering LaserGuy for #178 in readslist.

 

[somitomi]

Catchup thread skimming part I.

I haven't played with somi, Heury, or Swiss before either unless im forgetting, so same question there.

I've been playing forum maffia on and off for the last couple years, mostly with the xkcd crowd and a little bit here.

Since mafia can roll the 1-shots as well and has GF/Ninja, we can't really rely on very much help from our PRs. Most likely we will have to win in the day phase.

At least the firework of everyone using their shots all at once should blind mafia during the night.

I'm not really a fan of this take. It's mainly hedge without committing a vote to the cause. Then it goes into some flip association, which I very much disagree with at this point. I think it's totally possible that a scum partner could bus this early into the game, since its less likely to stick. I'd rather look at associations after seeing how this develops more.

Yeah, it's possible mafia would push a newbie mate under the bus. If they were - excuse my Klatchian - a complete ****, that is.

HeuryAlone HeuryAlone said he doesn't try if he is mafia and to me he doesnt seem to be trying to hard but maybe thats due to things still getting started but Im now watching that.

Do you think you can trust a self-assessment made within a game?

Whoever has played this Sabar before - is this his usual play style? After this many games this is his real play style?

What I've seen so far is pretty ordinary Sabrar stuff, yeah.

I'm going to vig shoot Heury Alone tonight if he survives the day btw

Why Heury?
__________________________
Bottom of P3

 

[ranmaru]

Unvote; Vote: Tattertot

 

[Deadbananas]

Lowering LaserGuy for #178 in readslist.

Why does #178 make you lower laserguy. Honestly I agree with him a bit on that. I've mentioned before that Tattertot gives me an odd innocent vibe as well.

LaserGuy what do you make of Tattertot not reacting to Ranmaru's initial vote on him, and his response here?

 

[ranmaru]

He has a POE of Swiss, Tattertot, and Somi. The intent for that post seems off when he has yet to re-read entirely, and since Somi has been catching up, it doesn't make sense for him to vote there at this time, unless to ensure there is no support for Tot at all. I think how you are handling it is just fine.

 

[somitomi]

Why do you want a fight? o you think a 'fight' will help you read me, or do you just like derailing the day phase?
Opinion so skipping
skipping this also as unproductive and wilfully wrong
Answered it so skipping this
Not a clue why you're so obsessed with me. What are your other reads? What even is your read on me? Will you vote Huery Alone?

This entire post is just rubbing me up the wrong way somehow.

I think avatar consideration is more serious than you would want to give it credit. Especially when mafia cares about their own image.

What do you mean "especially"? When does mafia not care about their own image?

 

[ranmaru]

I mean that mafia would care more into considering an avatar than town I believe.

 

[ranmaru]

Wam Please prod HeuryAlone

 

[bessie]

Unless I'm forgetting a game, I don't think I've seen you as Town since I came here, except when you were Synchronicity which I don't feel really counts.

That was a bessie joke, and like usual no one got it. I always play town, perhaps just not as well when I’m scum.

Generally speaking it is too early to have reads.

Generally speaking I disagree with this statement. There have been games in the past where I had reads by the first page or two. And I think so have you. However, in this particular game I didn’t have many early pings.

I told you, I don't have well-developed reads so early, I'm always suspicious when people claim to have solved the game with 3 pages of content. I'm going to give you reads on my own time, thank you very much.

I used to pick a tunnel on page one all the time. Am I getting too old for this?

Im so tempted to go Old Swiss and just be a complete prick - avvy and attitude all wrapped up in one winning combination.

I’d rather you didn’t I like your dog.

What the bloody hell is this read? Walk me through how people are giving the cat vs dog fight any serious thought.

You being annoyed by this made me laugh for a solid minute. Oh, and I have been giving it some serious thought. But I don’t expect you to comprehend anything that may be going on in my little puppy mind.

Just want to throw out there that up until this point I have not received any coaching. I have been offered help and guidance if I felt I need it but haven't felt I need it yet if ever. Mafia is mafia. Online or not it very alike. ranmaru mentioned HeuryAlone dropping in activity recently reminding me that he mentioned he doesn't try if he is mafia. Just a thought to consider. Also don't know why Swiss is upset I agree with his Sabrar thoughts.

This is an interesting observation re Heury.

I wouldn't expect a dog to understand.

I'm tempted to give Sabrar town points for being uncooperative here. I feel like scum would try to be a bit more appeasing.
bessie is this typical behavior for Sabrar in either alignment to be not overly cooperative?

Yes Sabrar is annoyingly obstinate as any alignment.

Mafia have no way of avoiding or outplaying the vig shot

What am I missing here

Doctor can block. Also a vig (or a mafia pretending to be vig) might hit town.

Usually you're very quick to jump on people for any attempt at rolefishing. I highly doubt that Swiss being a dog was your only reason not to do that here.

Yeah I was thinking about two reasons for claiming vig on page 1, and I didn’t think it was good for town to be discussing the power distribution that early in the game. This is also why I didn’t go after Heury for post #15.

Why do you expect to have a strong scumlean so early?

Because I usually do.

Sometime later today or tomorrow morning Ill post some town and mafia suspect and why until then though Im just going to watch the chat.

I’m going to treat this as a newbie comment even though you claim to have some experience, but this is a scummy position to take. If you are town, the best thing you can do to help town is to contribute to the conversation. You don’t need to worry about being right or wrong. We’re all wrong more often than not. You should talk things out, and you’re allowed to change your mind. The scummiest think you can do is sit back and watch, and let others present opinions you can use as your own.

Vote: somitomi

Hmm. Reasons? You know that I am always suspicious of a vote without reasons.

 

[Tattertot]

That was a bessie joke, and like usual no one got it. I always play town, perhaps just not as well when I’m scum.


Generally speaking I disagree with this statement. There have been games in the past where I had reads by the first page or two. And I think so have you. However, in this particular game I didn’t have many early pings.


I used to pick a tunnel on page one all the time. Am I getting too old for this?


I’d rather you didn’t I like your dog.


You being annoyed by this made me laugh for a solid minute. Oh, and I have been giving it some serious thought. But I don’t expect you to comprehend anything that may be going on in my little puppy mind.


This is an interesting observation re Heury.



View attachment 307674


Yes Sabrar is annoyingly obstinate as any alignment.


Doctor can block. Also a vig (or a mafia pretending to be vig) might hit town.


Yeah I was thinking about two reasons for claiming vig on page 1, and I didn’t think it was good for town to be discussing the power distribution that early in the game. This is also why I didn’t go after Heury for post #15.


Because I usually do.


I’m going to treat this as a newbie comment even though you claim to have some experience, but this is a scummy position to take. If you are town, the best thing you can do to help town is to contribute to the conversation. You don’t need to worry about being right or wrong. We’re all wrong more often than not. You should talk things out, and you’re allowed to change your mind. The scummiest think you can do is sit back and watch, and let others present opinions you can use as your own.



Hmm. Reasons? You know that I am always suspicious of a vote without reasons.

I said that because I work until 2 in the morning... And my breaks arent nearly long enough to give me time to respond to everything.

 

[Sabrar]

I used to pick a tunnel on page one all the time. Am I getting too old for this?

Picking a tunnel is fine, as you know I also love to do that. However that is different from providing a full read-list from that little content.

 

[LaserGuy]

Deadbananas:

Has been very present, very engaged, making good reads and re-evaluating as things develop. If he's scum here I will be genuinely impressed because his play feels so natural. Solid Town.


bessie:

bessie loves playing Town and hasn't in quite awhile. Her enthuasism and excitement is apparent almost immediately, and I think bessie would have a hard time faking this as mafia. I don't think a lack of strong reads is surprising for her at this stage as bessie is extremely analytical in how she develops her reads and this game has been fairly slow so far. Solid Town.


Sabrar:

I'm mostly evaluating him on meta here, but I feel I have a pretty good bead on him at this point. His aggression vs. Swiss is fairly characteristic of how he behaves as Town... if you contrast to his scum play (e.g. SS mafia), he is much more reluctant to make a move against someone this early. He expressed a similar thought to #113 (too early for reads) in TIL mafia where he only had a few impressions but no solid reads for most of D1. Nothing really strikes me as anything outside of what I would expect from his Town play. Town lean.


Ranmaru:

In the early part of the game, Ranmaru seemed very disengaged from the thread and passive, mostly just fielding softball questions at Tattertot and not really trying to move things forward. I think his reaction to my asking in #54 and #82 feels townie and the subsequent increase in intensity is in line with what I expect from him. I haven't played with scum!Ran (except one game where he was an SK and was caught immediately), but my understanding is that he has a very hard time faking his Town meta as mafia. His reads seem well thought-out and consistent with his approach to the game so far. Town lean.


Swiss:

Posts like #11 and #62 very LAMIST and rub me the wrong way. #67 has more of the same. Found it weird that he picked up on Sabrar's #27 being a "classic trick", but didn't note the much more blatant example of heury's #22. Other than that, this post is mostly NAI... it's the kind of post I feel that an experienced player could probably throw together as either alignment without much difficulty. Note that even still, I like this recap far more than somitomi's review of the same content.

In contrast, #114 is pretty good. He's actually providing some more detailed thoughts and follow-ups on things and his reads progress naturally from his previous posting. When I voted for him in #85, I didn't want to make a case on him, I just wanted to see if he would get townier as the game went on, and he did. Town lean.


Tattertot:

This one is tough.

I note is that Tattertot has been very consistent with his posting style. Not that his posts have necessarily been internally consistent, or his logic particularly well thought out, but that the style of posts hasn't changed over time. He hasn't become more polished, or more helpful than his baseline. I think it is unlikely he is being coached, or, if he is, his partner is probably someone who has been relatively inactive.

Likewise, there are a couple of posts, particularly #147 that I mentioned earlier, and the business with changing his avatar to a cat to suggest an alignment that... don't feel like the kind of behaviours that come from someone with a more experienced partner giving them support. I have never heard of an experienced scum encouraging someone to lean into newbie weirdness as a strategy and the pool of possible partners I imagine suggesting such a strategy is very small.

On the other hand, I don't like his #71 where he seems to be following Swiss on Sabrar and suggesting he is retrospectively looking for a reason to support it. I also find it very strange at how reluctant he is to reveal his thoughts (his "I read and observe the thread" sort of comments). This isn't really something that I usually see out of new players. I don't think the lack of immediate reaction to Ran's RVS is particularly notable given this, however, as it did apparently lead him to a scumlean of Ran.

On balance, I think I'm going to go with a weak Town lean. As a rule, I don't like yeeting new players on D1, so I'd prefer we look elsewhere for today.


somitomi:

First catch-up post is not particularly inspiring. He is mostly responding to harmless things and not really commiting to any particular stances or adding anything of substance. I do think it's interesting that of the things he has responded to two of the six have been questioning scumreads on Heury, and am marking this as a possible buddy association. Scum lean.


HeuryAlone:

My recollection of Heury is that he usually comes across as very lighthearted and cheery when he's Town, and notably less so when he's mafia. I had this impression from his #15. I also felt that Heury's self meta in #22 (I don't try as mafia) was too self-destructive to post as mafia since it's a very easy tell to identify and would force scum!heury into a particular playstyle. These two points were largely my basis for my early Townread of him.

In review, I'm somewhat less certain of my evaluations here. On the first point, heury seems to be more just... not present, rather than specifically light-hearted in tone. On the second point it's possible heury felt that this was well-known meta for him and felt that one or more other players in the game would be able to point out this tell, so he tried to get ahead of it anyway. As it is, he doesn't seem to be trying that hard so, well, there's that. I'm noting in passing that Heury is responding here to a question directed, and seems to be following Sabrar's content more than others in the thread. Possible association to look into on a scum flip from one of them. Lack of content doesn't really let me get too much more out of him, but it doesn't look too good so far. Putting him at scum lean.


Going to leave my vote on somitomi for now since there's plenty of pressure on Heury right now (and he doesn't seem to be around anyway?). But I'd be happy with either yeet.

Town
LaserGuy
DeadBananas
bessie
Sabrar
Ranmaru
Swiss
Tattertot
------Neutral line------
somitomi
HeuryAlone
Scum

 

[ranmaru]

On Somi, I think the only point you have is that his catch up isn't great and that he hasn't given solid stances yet. However, I don't think it would make sense for Somi!Scum to ask about Heury!Scum when Heury seems to have been absent for quite some time, I'm sure he'd notice and try not to create such a blatant connection.

somitomi Do you have any stances to give? Why did you ask about Heury in your posts? Why did you do a skim catch up? (thread has been very slow and light where you'd have time to do a meatier catch up)

 

[Swiss]

Let's just fast forward this day phase, nothing is happening.

 

[ranmaru]

Nah, I'd like to see more content from Somi. I'd also like for you to update your reads. Plus I have a question for you since you're here.

 

[ranmaru]

Curious why you point out Sabrar's #27 as a classic tell but for Heury's #22 you just go 'huh'.

 

[Swiss]

DeadBananas
Bessie
Laserguy
Sabrar
Tattertot
Ranmaru
Somitomi
HueryAlone
Swiss

Full reads for when I get NK'd because of my power role

 

[ranmaru]

Reasoning too.

 

[Swiss]

Curious why you point out Sabrar's #27 as a classic tell but for Heury's #22 you just go 'huh'.

Probably because I wanted to tunnel Sabrar.

Frankly I haven't a clue can't remember.

 

[Swiss]

Bloody hell man give me a chance

 

[Swiss]

Ran just sat there refreshing the page every 3 seconds lol

 

[ranmaru]

I got time. No rush.